97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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3116. hydrus
3:13 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21489
3115. vis0
2:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
CREDIT: erau.edu  TYPE: Day / Night Visible Satellite  SUBJECT: 97L
 (still!?!)  PERIOD: 201310-02'2030_-03'1230


My22cents?  i REMOVED as this is being re-posted on the latest Dr Masters blog with my 22cents included.
Member Since: December 15, 2006 Posts: 249 Comments: 455
3114. SAINTHURRIFAN
2:20 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Pat a color analyst or are you Hokie Or Jim lol.Said 40 times when it merges with front another possible Juan without the loops. Also looking at the models was puzzeled why a lot of them strenghted it before landfall? A transitioning Hybrid? JUan?
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
3113. AussieStorm
2:18 PM GMT on October 03, 2013



@tormenta_severa
Cozumel and 08:52 h under tropical storm from 08:10 h the first image a noticeable change
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
3112. Patrap
2:15 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
3111. hydrus
2:15 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3110. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Just my biased opinion, but I think Karen is going to make landfall further east around the Big Bend of FL. The slower movement and disorganization will allow ample time for the front swinging down to catch at and turn it northeast starting at a point further south then when the expected turn will happen as shown by the models, very similar to Charley.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21489
3110. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:13 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Just my biased opinion, but I think Karen is going to make landfall further east around the Big Bend of FL. The slower movement and disorganization will allow ample time for the front swinging down to catch at and turn it northeast starting at a point further south then when the expected turn will happen as shown by the models, very similar to Charley.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8566
3109. CitikatzSouthFL
2:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3058. StormTrackerScott:
Karen should be a hurricane later today or tonight just as I said yesterday


Scott, could you please do all of us a favor and not iclude "just as I said (_________ fill in the blank) in every post? A simple comment/obserbation eithout tooting your own horn would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 469
3108. pcoladeb
2:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3079. StormTrackerScott:


Largo I have seen to many system in the Gulf this time of year do this and it's scary infact I remember getting up and Opal was a 90mph hurricane and then at lunch Opal was nearing a cat5. So you really have to watch these systems as models can't even accurately depict how intense a system will be as there just isn't enough research into this to accurately depict strength of a system.


I forgot about Opal .. yeah that storm blew up in as matter of hours. Intensification is not something we r good at
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
3107. Patrap
2:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
3106. pie314271
2:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2013


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtm l/130434.shtml?tswind120#contents

What really are they like forecasting an Allison or something?!?
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 102
3105. StormTrackerScott
2:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3096. cat6band:


And it is a fairly weak system....and your telling me you know what the future intensity will be at landfall?? If so, please give me the lottery numbers as well....


Well HH'ers are out there now and are finding winds of 65mph.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3464
3104. mfcmom
2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Wonder where Norcross is?
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
3103. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
3102. Patrap
2:08 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
What Guidance for the Cat 3 do you give, TCHP?, or other, as no guidance takes it past cat 1, then weakens it before landfall.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
3101. DestinWatcher
2:08 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Email from the Okaloosa County Florida (Ft Walton Beach/Destin)Public Safety Director on October 3.

"The weather situation is evolving such that we need to start storm preparations for this weekend. To that end, we will be holding an EOC briefing for the ESF reps. tomorrow at 9 am at the EOC. I have asked the Commissioners to attend to discuss plans for a declaration of a local state of emergency, so that we can handle this situation as it evolves. Please plan to attend and initiate storm preparation plans for your Department. Thank you."
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
3100. StormTrackerScott
2:08 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3092. Patrap:


I doubt you can find any forecasting from me here Scott, I'm not a met, I'm mo an observer and color analyst.



Hey Pat, your Saints whopped up on my Dolphins on Monday. Man you guys look great this year.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3464
3099. 7544
2:08 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3085. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but you and everybody else was like oh it will remain a very weak system due to the dry air and shear. Everyone near track but everyone wanting to fight me on the future strength.


yep u got it ! i think the fl west coast will need to watch tho if that convection will seperate and get pushed to the east or ne latter on today as karen heads nnw couls happen ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
3098. unknowncomic
2:08 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3093. StormTrackerScott:


Even TWC is on the bandwagon.
They relish a chance to show a reporter braving the storm.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2065
3097. GatorWX
2:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3088. MississippiWx:
Karen will not be a hurricane today, just as the NHC says. Hurricanes don't have exposed centers. Dry air is still eating away at the western side of the system and slowing intensification, just as it has for 3 days now.



I'm not sure everyone knows where the center is, so take a gander..

22.0N 87.6W

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3579
3096. cat6band
2:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3085. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but you and everybody else was like oh it will remain a very weak system due to the dry air and shear. Everyone near track but everyone wanting to fight me on the future strength.


And it is a fairly weak system....and your telling me you know what the future intensity will be at landfall?? If so, please give me the lottery numbers as well....
Member Since: May 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
3095. 2xRitaEvacuee
2:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
So Patrap,

I just moved into your neck of the woods. Where's the good hurricane party spot in Mid-City? :)
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
3094. unknowncomic
2:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2065
3093. StormTrackerScott
2:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3088. MississippiWx:
Karen will not be a hurricane today, just as the NHC says. Hurricanes don't have exposed centers. Dry air is still eating away at the western side of the system and slowing intensification, just as it has for 3 days now.



Even TWC is on the bandwagon.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3464
3092. Patrap
2:06 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3085. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but you and everybody else was like oh it will remain a very weak system due to the dry air and shear. Everyone near track but everyone wanting to fight me on the future strength.


I doubt you can find any forecasting from me here Scott, I'm not a met, I'm mo an observer and color analyst.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
3091. washingtonian115
2:06 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
I wonder when Doc is going to post a new blog.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17149
3090. C0astalAlabama
2:06 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Terrible news for the Snapper fishing charters that were looking to bank some $$ on this unique season that opened Tuesday. A weekend of bookings cancelled.
Member Since: August 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
3089. pie314271
2:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Seems like Karen hit the 35% that Jeff gave.
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 102
3088. MississippiWx
2:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Karen will not be a hurricane today, just as the NHC says. Hurricanes don't have exposed centers. Dry air is still eating away at the western side of the system and slowing intensification, just as it has for 3 days now.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
3087. Torito
2:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
3086. LargoFl
2:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39663
3085. StormTrackerScott
2:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3076. Patrap:


We already knew dat, as the Guidance has been saying it for 5 days now.

Again, now can you give us some synoptic reasoning as to the futcha?

Thanx


Yeah but you and everybody else was like oh it will remain a very weak system due to the dry air and shear. Everyone near track but everyone wanting to fight me on the future strength.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3464
3084. Patrap
2:04 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
The yellow one is the BAMS, or "shallow version of the Suite of 3.

BAM - The Beta and Advection Model

The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)



The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: Diagram of absolute vorticity advection and relative vorticity formation in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone.. The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.

Three versions of the BAM model are run with shallow (850-700 mb), medium (850-400 mb), and deep (850-200 mb) layers. All three versions of the model are run operationally four times per day.

Reference: Marks, D. G., 1992: The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC- 70, 89 pp.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
3083. sigh
2:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3046. pcoladeb:
Not an Ivan but maybe a Frederic. Frederic came off Cuba a TD and came into Dauphin Island a strong Cat 3 with 125 winds. IMHO tonight will tell us all what Miss Karen has in mind.


Frederic had a vastly different environment.

There's no way Karen can achieve Cat 3 status with the amount of shear and dry air it faces. I'll be somewhat surprised if it even makes it to minimal Cat 1 status.
Member Since: September 13, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 75
3082. GatorWX
2:02 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3068. GatorWX:


that map is going to look a bit different when it gets updated... pretty sure..
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3579
3081. LargoFl
2:02 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
its a loner but Bam is still calling for that right hook..stay alert florida...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39663
3080. C0astalAlabama
2:02 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3065. WXGulfBreeze:


I do hope you're right, and that NHC & models (with most people on furlough) are not low-balling this storm. Just heard on the radio that we're under a hurricane watch. Not a TS watch. A hurricane watch.



Yeah, the Pensacola ABC station here (WEARTV) now has the hurricane watches up on the screen. Looks to be from Nola to Apalachicola.
Member Since: August 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
3079. StormTrackerScott
2:02 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3067. LargoFl:
yes scott..you nailed it...gfs is scary with 988mb...


Largo I have seen to many systems in the Gulf this time of year do this and it's scary infact I remember getting up and Opal was a 90mph hurricane and then at lunch Opal was nearing a cat5. So you really have to watch these systems as models can't even accurately depict how intense a system will be as there just isn't enough research into this to accurately depict strength of a system.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3464
3078. Kristina40
2:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Karen is making me very nervous here in Panama City. We're still waterlogged from summer floods and now some TS/H force winds with more rain? No thank you, please.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
3077. Torito
2:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
So was there indeed RI going on last night like I said, or is this kind of strengthening not fast enough?

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
3076. Patrap
2:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3066. StormTrackerScott:


I tried to tell people on here yesterday that I felt 97L now Karen would be a major threat to the Northern Gulf Coast.


We already knew dat, as the Guidance has been saying it for 5 days now.

Again, now can you give us some synoptic reasoning as to the futcha?

Thanx
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
3075. GatorWX
2:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3579
3074. gulfshoresAL
2:00 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3055. WxLogic:


Yeah, but I'll beg to differ... based on the HH last pass. It hasn't moved. It will moved eventually but not now lol.
When the next advisory comes out in about one hour, we will see if you are right or wrong. Like Patrap said, from 13 mph to stall just doesn't happen. Crow will be served in an hour to someone.
Member Since: June 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
3073. Patrap
2:00 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3065. WXGulfBreeze:


I do hope you're right, and that NHC & models (with most people on furlough) are not low-balling this storm. Just heard on the radio that we're under a hurricane watch. Not a TS watch. A hurricane watch.


.Here, this is the NHC page.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
3072. washingtonian115
2:00 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Karen getting closer to hurricane status...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17149
3071. pie314271
1:59 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Karen, Karen, Karen...
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 102
3070. cat6band
1:59 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3058. StormTrackerScott:
Karen should be a hurricane later today or tonight just as I said yesterday



Actually...that's not what you said...you said we would already have a hurricane....with an "eye"...haha
Member Since: May 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
3069. unknowncomic
1:59 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
If Karen is creating its own environment, shear will not hinder it.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2065
3068. GatorWX
1:59 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3579
3067. LargoFl
1:59 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3058. StormTrackerScott:
Karen should be a hurricane later today or tonight just as I said yesterday

yes scott..you nailed it...gfs is scary with 988mb...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39663
3066. StormTrackerScott
1:59 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Quoting 3057. C0astalAlabama:
Very surprised at the latest developments. Was expecting a rain event, lots of rain with minimal 35 or so knots...Seeing it spin up to 60+ with 36+ hours to go over 85 mph is a bit surprising right now.

Will load up the tanks of gas now before it sells out. Learned that the hard way years ago.


I tried to tell people on here yesterday that I felt 97L now Karen would be a major threat to the Northern Gulf Coast.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3464

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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