97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 52. cat6band:


Reported...pretty sure that language is not allowed...haha!!

And you shouldn't be saying who you reported. Just do it without announcing it. Imo
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Quoting 56. GatorWX:
Good mornin 23...I wuz just gonna post that..:)
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Quoting 41. Nolehead:
morning everyone, just sure wanting to know what this thing wants to do...us down here in orange bch are waiting to see what the all mighty officials are going to do..got a feeling as soon as theres a cone..we will be right slap in the middle of it..don't see it hooking right, looks like the size is getting bigger..jmo


I think our NOLA friends need to start some planning, too...
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A weaker 97-L may move more west initially, a Stronger system would probably move more poleward....
but in the end, trough will get it either way.
With dry air still in place over the southern gulf,
the system will have a hard time.
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Quoting 54. Torito:


I think the dry air is receding here..... Less and less of it on the floater now.



Probably because the floater isn't actually...moving. Lol. It's still staying in the same proximity of the system and it will continue limiting the storm. It's really not that difficult to understand.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
People need to stop it with Gulf of Mexico stereotype as not every storm entering Gulf of Mexico turn into major just because it's a hot bath there. You need better conditions than what 97L will face for that to occurs such as shear, moisture, etc. It's also worth noting that Rita and Katrina had the support of Loop Current as well as other majors in Gulf of Mexico. I'm not sure we got that right now...
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Thanks Dr. Seems to me that the only possible x-factor continues to be in the short-term with the anti-cyclone over it at present before it reaches more unfavorable conditions in the Gulf; it does not have much time to defy the current odds.

Either way, a big rain/flooding event for somebody over the weekend.......I hope the rain comes through on Saturday and that things calm down by Sunday so I can try to get some fishing in.




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Quoting 56. GatorWX:


Dat wave doesn't look as good as it did yesterday. :/
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This is 2013... keep that in mind.
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Quoting 50. MississippiWx:


You mean the dry air that is still killing the western half of the system and that will be injected into the storm once the upper level winds begin coming out of the west in a day or two?


I think the dry air is receding here..... Less and less of it on the floater now.

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NOLA, Slidell Long Range Radar

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Quoting 46. Torito:


About the dry air? It is not coming, it is leaving right now.......



You mean the dry air that is still killing the western half of the system and that will be injected into the storm once the upper level winds begin coming out of the west in a day or two?
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LOL someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed. Have a good day everyone, I'll check back in a few hours.
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Jerry in his hidey-hole.

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Quoting 43. MississippiWx:


Hmmmm. Scott, care to reply to this? LOL.


About the dry air? It is not coming, it is leaving right now.......

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Quoting 42. Drakoen:
97L has gotten a bit better organized overnight. The low level circulation is becoming increasingly apparent on visible satellite imagery and the upper level outflow continues to improve.


Agree with this.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
On the W side

On the E side
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Quoting Dr. Masters:
The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely.


Hmmmm. Scott, care to reply to this? LOL.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
97L has gotten a bit better organized overnight. The low level circulation is becoming increasingly apparent on visible satellite imagery and the upper level outflow continues to improve.
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morning everyone, just sure wanting to know what this thing wants to do...us down here in orange bch are waiting to see what the all mighty officials are going to do..got a feeling as soon as theres a cone..we will be right slap in the middle of it..don't see it hooking right, looks like the size is getting bigger..jmo
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"Poof"
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Quoting 32. Patrap:
No Guidance takes 97L to a Major.


since when do guidance do good with intensity? please!!!
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Oh god.... Not the report game again.....
*hides.*


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Quoting 32. Patrap:
No Guidance takes 97L to a Major.


Right now, I'm thinking strong TS with 65MPH winds......
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No Guidance takes 97L to a Major.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
I not have any doubt that 97L become our first major!!!
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we really need to stay alert............
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Quoting 8. Patrap:




Well, Pat, somehow you went *further* into the woods this go-round. TX window slams shut hard Sat nite.
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Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 18. hydrus:
Here is where this system could surprise us. Conditions seem to have improved a lot since yesterday.
yeah im watching the leading moisture field heading to south florida..I just have that feeling its going to follow the Bams model and hook right...
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Just walked outside here in the FL Panhandle and found it to be warm, slightly humid, and overcast.

Sorta reminds me of the weather we had when Ida was coming our way through the Gulf.
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Just had wind gusts of at least 40 mph take down some palm fronds and bark from the palm trees right on 7 Mile Beach.
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Quoting 17. Patrap:
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 301407
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT MON 30 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 20.0N AND 84.5W FOR 02/1800Z, AND BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1200Z IF SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP



thats old


here from oct 1st


NOUS42 KNHC 011525
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 01 OCTOBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSTECT AREA -- CNTRAL CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 02/1445Z C. 03/0300Z
D. 18N 85W D. 21N 86W
E. 1730-2200Z E. 0530-1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT E. SFC TO 10,000FT


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
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Quoting 15. TampaSpin:



Slower advance gets more of a right hook!
Good morning TampaSpin are you thinking a stall and then a sharp right hook? Something similar to Wilma?
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Quoting 13. Seflhurricane:
When does recon depart



When its up in the air
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Here is where this system could surprise us. Conditions seem to have improved a lot since yesterday.
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Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 301407
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT MON 30 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 20.0N AND 84.5W FOR 02/1800Z, AND BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1200Z IF SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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