97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Jerry's track in the past 24 hours has been interesting.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 110. Bluestorm5:


Accoording to ATCF, this storm had moved .3 degrees north and .5 degrees west in 6 HOURS.

6z: AL, 97, 2013100206, , BEST, 0, 178N, 848W, 25, 1009, DB, 0,

12z: AL, 97, 2013100212, , BEST, 0, 181N, 853W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ

I entered the points on Google Earth and measured the distance.

44.3 miles in 6 hours = 7.4 mph



Whats up with the 4mph then? xD
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
Quoting 104. Patrap:
Goodbye, "Jerry"






Lol and more Lol.
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Quoting 65. hydrus:
Good mornin 23...I wuz just gonna post that..:)


Usually I get excited when a storm could threaten the Gulf. I don't feel it with this one, lol. Looking east....
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
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Quoting 84. Torito:


The storm looks like it is getting bigger, not moving...

And im reading off the NHC UPDATE NOW

WHICH SAYS STATIONARY.

-.-


Accoording to ATCF, this storm had moved .3 degrees north and .5 degrees west in 6 HOURS.

6z: AL, 97, 2013100206, , BEST, 0, 178N, 848W, 25, 1009, DB, 0,

12z: AL, 97, 2013100212, , BEST, 0, 181N, 853W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ

I entered the points on Google Earth and measured the distance.

44.3 miles in 6 hours = 7.4 mph

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97L is TS IMO
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Quoting 104. Patrap:
Goodbye, "Jerry"








Jerry is stuck. :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Sad note comes in, Breaking...

Tom Clancy the Famous Autho died yesterday in Baltimore at 66.

Jack Ryan, Rest in Peace ol Patriot.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting 93. MississippiWx:


...You are reading Jerry's movement...

Lol. Wow.
Jerry's movement very funny.Reminds me my brother.
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Quoting 96. redwagon:


If it's just gonna drift.. which way will it drift? You'd think poleward.


Its going WNW right now.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Goodbye, "Jerry"






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
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102. xcool
97L td imo
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Quoting 97. CaribBoy:


LMAO... Torito you disappoint me :(


LOL, MY BAD. I clicked the wrong link on the wrong website, double whammy.

it is fixed now though,

Here is the real data.

Lat: 18.1N Lon: 85.3W Moving: WNW 4 mph (4 kts) Pressure: 29.77 in (1008 mb)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
Good morning all

97L has dumped copious amounts of rain on us this morning with more to come. Although it looks quite fearsome on satellite this is a system that is still struggling to organise. Visible loop imagery shows a recent huge outflow boundary on the Western flank which clearly indicates that dry air entrainment into the heart of the low is disrupting any attempt to develop.

While it still has time to become a TD the cloud tops over the area of lowest pressure on the SW side of the convective blow up are starting to warm just like they did yesterday.

This repeat cycle does not bode well for 97L unless it can somehow break out of that but more dry air ahead will be a challenge. The loop below shows the outflow boundary.

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Link



72 hr surface forecast
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Quoting 93. MississippiWx:


...You are reading Jerry's movement...

Lol. Wow.


LMAO... Torito you disappoint me :(
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Quoting 81. Torito:


Yea, it is pretty much not moving at all..


If it's just gonna drift.. which way will it drift? You'd think poleward.
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Quoting 56. GatorWX:
Still watching Africa? Are you looking for the wild kingdom or what?
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Quoting 89. MississippiWx:


What does Jerry's movement have to do with anything?


Yea I read the wrong one, it is 4mph WNW

Already edited out
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 84. Torito:


The storm looks like it is getting bigger, not moving...

And im reading off the NHC UPDATE NOW

WHICH SAYS STATIONARY.

-.-


...You are reading Jerry's movement...

Lol. Wow.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
Quoting 54. Torito:


I think the dry air is receding here..... Less and less of it on the floater now.



The area where some have called out the LLC is moving due west
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Quoting 82. prcane4you:
That's word described this blog... BORING


XD when there is nothing heading for the Leewards and NE Caribbean, everything is BORING. LOL
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Quoting 86. Torito:


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 43.9W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST. JERRY IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.




What does Jerry's movement have to do with anything?
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Anyway, dry air talk aside, 97L actually resembles a tropical cyclone this morning.

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EDITED OUT, wrong storm.

Heres the real data;

Lat: 18.1N Lon: 85.3W Moving: WNW 4 mph (4 kts) Pressure: 29.77 in (1008 mb)
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Roatan has light west winds. Light!

Pressure is 29.85 in
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 76. MississippiWx:


That's the fastest 1mph movement I've ever seen.


The storm looks like it is getting bigger, not moving...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
fall time!!
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Quoting 68. CaribBoy:


SIGH....

but I'm not surprised :(

BORING
That's word described this blog... BORING
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Quoting 74. prcane4you:
Moving 1/2 miles an hour


Yea, it is pretty much not moving at all..
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 69. Nolehead:
best quote..."this is 2013"...you just never know whats going to happen..could blow up or completely fizzle out..


More likely.
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As I mentioned this morning (and Bluestorm is correct), there are no warm pools in the Gulf at present that would give the system any extra boosts in the Gulf so the current forecast of a depression or weak tropical storms is very reasonable.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9317
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
Quoting 67. Torito:



The storm is also nearly stationary right now, too, though.

Moving at almost 1MPH westward....


That's the fastest 1mph movement I've ever seen.
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Quoting 71. Bluestorm5:
Because the system is leaving behind moisture as it move NW-ward and the floater isn't moving so that's why moisture is filling the screen. 97L is still grinding into dry atmosphere and the western half isn't that great looking.


At least it has held up this long......

Let's just hope it doesn't get ripped apart like 95L did.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 67. Torito:



The storm is also nearly stationary right now, too, though.

Moving at almost 1MPH westward....
Moving 1/2 miles an hour
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
Quoting 66. RGVtropicalWx13:

And you shouldn't be saying who you reported. Just do it without announcing it. Imo


I'm playing his game....the Taz man is famous for it....
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Quoting 54. Torito:


I think the dry air is receding here..... Less and less of it on the floater now.

Because the system is leaving behind moisture as it move NW-ward and the floater isn't moving so that's why moisture is filling the screen. 97L is still grinding into dry atmosphere and the western half isn't that great looking.
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Quoting 58. Patrap:
notice how the leading edge is being blown to florida.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
best quote..."this is 2013"...you just never know whats going to happen..could blow up or completely fizzle out..
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Quoting 57. Torito:


Dat wave doesn't look as good as it did yesterday. :/


SIGH....

but I'm not surprised :(

BORING
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Quoting 62. MississippiWx:


Probably because the floater isn't actually...moving. Lol. It's still staying in the same proximity of the system and it will continue limiting the storm. It's really not that difficult to understand.



The storm is also nearly stationary right now, too, though.

Moving at almost 1MPH westward....
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 52. cat6band:


Reported...pretty sure that language is not allowed...haha!!

And you shouldn't be saying who you reported. Just do it without announcing it. Imo
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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