97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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The Doom is palatable..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Where are my E caribbean friends :-)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6135
Quoting 117. GatorWX:




This map needs to be kept in mind.
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Quoting 153. StormTrackerScott:
Track will shift east big time once the NHC can confirm this as 97L will miss the Yucatan and go thru the Channel and into the eastern Gulf.

scott if this makes the turn and comes in or near tampa you folks will get some of this huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting 154. kmanislander:


That could happen as we have seen before but surface pressure and vort maps do not support that at this time.





Those maps indicate a fairly broad area of low pressure, which means an actual center can consolidate in a lot of places there. We will see. Definitely not a guarantee, but low clouds are moving in from northwest to southeast to the north of that area.
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Quoting 153. StormTrackerScott:
Track will shift east big time once the NHC can confirm this as 97L will miss the Yucatan and go thru the Channel and into the eastern Gulf.




Haha...sure...
Member Since: May 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 314


I'm outsky, later
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2827
How is this not a typhoon yet?



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Quoting 151. stormwatcherCI:
No it's not. There is no sign of a closed low. It is basically a strong rainstorm but nothing else.


It's about as closed as it gets and yes this is a TS right now. Recon will probably confirm that this afternoon.
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Quoting 130. cat6band:


Is that the latest?
yes the 6z...we'll see what it says tomorrow.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
EP, 93, 2013100212, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1067W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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The Zombies:

Well no one told me about her
the way she lied
Well no one told me about her
how many people cried
But it's too late to say you're sorry
How would I know why should I care
Please don't bother tryin' to find her
She's not there
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Quoting 138. MississippiWx:


Kman,

Zooming in on NASA loops, it appears that the center has jumped or relocated farther north close to 20N 85W. Judging by low cloud motions, the center is not in the southwest corner of the convection any longer.


That could happen as we have seen before but surface pressure and vort maps do not support that at this time.



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Track will shift east big time once the NHC can confirm this as 97L will miss the Yucatan and go thru the Channel and into the eastern Gulf.

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Need to take a break. This thing is making my head hurt. I'll give it at least two hours and take a gander. It already looks a lot different than when I awoke.

*Click for loop
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2827
Quoting 109. wunderkidcayman:
97L is TS IMO
No it's not. There is no sign of a closed low. It is basically a strong rainstorm but nothing else.
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Quoting 145. StormTrackerScott:


I guess was right about the relocation. Just messing with you buddy;) Tracking weather is all in fun nothing personal.


We are talking about today, not yesterday.
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Quoting 109. wunderkidcayman:
97L is TS IMO


W.o.W
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6135
Quoting 128. Torito:
yeah im watching for that right hand hook
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
97L is winning me over.
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Quoting 138. MississippiWx:


Kman,

Zooming in on NASA loops, it appears that the center has jumped or relocated farther north close to 20N 85W. Judging by low cloud motions, the center is not in the southwest corner of the convection any longer.


Sounds like what the GFS depicted yesterday. Also that microwave imagery xcool posted really tells the tale. You can see low level spiral bands wrapping into the low.
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Quoting 138. MississippiWx:


Kman,

Zooming in on NASA loops, it appears that the center has jumped or relocated farther north close to 20N 85W. Judging by low cloud motions, the center is not in the southwest corner of the convection any longer.


I guess was right about the relocation. Just messing with you buddy;) Tracking weather is all in fun nothing personal.
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Here is the correct GFDL ensemble map for 97L. This is the 6z run.

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Quoting 139. Hurricane1956:
Wondering if this very slow movement will eventually affect the track of the system,as the Front is coming down if the system is moving so slow it might get into the Gulf of Mexico and push this system more NE or E,before it reach the FLorida Big Bend,it might make a sharp right turn toward Florida,like everything in life,timing is everything,we'll see.
I just got the feeling that Central and maybe South Florida will feel more from this system that anticipated,also all the bad weather is located on the East side of the system,so the LLC is not that important at this point.



NOOOOO ITS GOING TO PULL AN ANDREA!
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Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6135


From the looks of it that trough is diving down pretty deep if this continue we could see some recurvature to the east closer to the florida panhandle.
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Quoting 135. cat6band:


Why is that showing Aug 14?


Not sure. I think that's for 92L, but it didn't show that when I copied the link. Lol. Weird.
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Quoting 74. prcane4you:
Moving 1/2 miles an hour
Wondering if this very slow movement will eventually affect the track of the system,as the Front is coming down if the system is moving so slow it might get into the Gulf of Mexico and push this system more NE or E,before it reach the FLorida Big Bend,it might make a sharp right turn toward Florida,like everything in life,timing is everything,we'll see.
I just got the feeling that Central and maybe South Florida will feel more from this system that anticipated,also all the bad weather is located on the East side of the system,so the LLC is not that important at this point.
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Quoting 121. kmanislander:
It's deja vu all over again with 97L. Just like yesterday, the mass of convection is splitting into two lobes with the lobe over the area of lowest pressure on the SW side warming the fastest. The water vapour loop shows the deepest convection releasing to the NE while the surface low on the SW side continues on towards the WNW/NW with convection beginning to fade overhead. The outflow boundary shows up nicely in this loop as well.

An exact repeat of yesterday and why, IMO, 97L still has a lot of work to do before becoming classified.



Kman,

Zooming in on NASA loops, it appears that the center has jumped or relocated farther north close to 20N 85W. Judging by low cloud motions, the center is not in the southwest corner of the convection any longer.
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AWW it's so cute!

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136. xcool
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Quoting 120. MississippiWx:
Lol @ the hurricane models. If they were ever accurate with their strength forecasts, we would be in trouble.



Why is that showing Aug 14?
Member Since: May 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 314
Back later
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Quoting 124. GatorWX:
Yucatan Channel:





Need that Cuban radar site operational!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2827
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97L has a long ways two go be for comeing a TD or Ts
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Quoting 114. LargoFl:


Is that the latest?
Member Since: May 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 314
Quoting 112. GatorWX:


Usually I get excited when a storm could threaten the Gulf. I don't feel it with this one, lol. Looking east....
It is my theory that once 97L grows a bit more, the Coriolis Effect will take a better hold on the system adding spin. it will be interesting.
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Quoting 120. MississippiWx:
Lol @ the hurricane models. If they were ever accurate with their strength forecasts, we would be in trouble.



Lookout Patrap...
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Quoting 120. MississippiWx:
Lol @ the hurricane models. If they were ever accurate with their strength forecasts, we would be in trouble.



LOL CAT 3 STRENGTH
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Quoting 122. prcane4you:
I think is heading to Madrid.


It might just as well sit in the same spot for 10 days...
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Yucatan Channel:



Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2827
Quoting 118. prcane4you:
Moving,not moving,stationary,no now is moving at 1 mph,nope now is 7.4.


This is all the data I have on the system.


Invest #97L (Location: Western Caribbean Sea)
Lat: 18.1N Lon: 85.3W Moving: WNW 4 mph (4 kts) Pressure: 29.77 in (1008 mb)
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Quoting 116. Torito:
Jerry's track in the past 24 hours has been interesting.

I think is heading to Madrid.
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It's deja vu all over again with 97L. Just like yesterday, the mass of convection is splitting into two lobes with the lobe over the area of lowest pressure on the SW side warming the fastest. The water vapour loop shows the deepest convection releasing to the NE while the surface low on the SW side continues on towards the WNW/NW with convection beginning to fade overhead. The outflow boundary shows up nicely in this loop as well.

An exact repeat of yesterday and why, IMO, 97L still has a lot of work to do before becoming classified.

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Lol @ the hurricane models. If they were ever accurate with their strength forecasts, we would be in trouble.

Edit. Wrong map.
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Quoting 115. Torito:


Whats up with the 4mph then? xD
Moving,not moving,stationary,no now is moving at 1 mph,nope now is 7.4.
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Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2827
Jerry's track in the past 24 hours has been interesting.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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