97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

Share this Blog
63
+

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2866 - 2816

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

2866. 7544
hello looks like karen wants to hook a right at this hour
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2865. GetReal


Karen is currently heavily weighted to the east of the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TSScott will have a good day, from goat, to owner of the proverbial crystal ball. Lets remember he was hyping this yesterday when it was far different, less stacked, shifting COC's, far less strong convection, and less organized. He was saying it could be "near" hurricane strength yesterday afternoon. I stood up for him, because I felt he was entitled to his opinion and I thought he was on to recognizing this could be a stronger than predicted system. Good for Scott though, he predicted this with little support and he stuck to his thinking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2862. VR46L

RAMMB IR Imagery
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2851. gulfbreeze:
If the front has slowed down what will that do to Karen?


keep her more west...she won't take that right turn.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a reminder, Karen is going to be a very lopsided system going forward. There is going to be a very tight moisture gradient on the west side of the storm. Increasing SW shear ahead of the trough combined with still a lot of dry air in the western and central Gulf spells a lot of rain east of the center and very little on its west side.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2858. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2847. taco2me61:

Morning Keeper :o) I'm not really sure I like that statment :o( just saying....

Taco :o(
I not sure if I liked saying it but that's where its heading for now anyway we shall see

be here till it lands on the doorstep where ever that maybe
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
Quoting 2818. mfcmom:
Morning Peeps. Panama City mom here.. What's your call guys. Thanks need to prep the kidlets.


My call is. Get ready. Keep an eye on the official NHC advisories. My take is this is coming YOUR way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
2855. SLU
Quoting 2849. washingtonian115:
6 years ago Karen had literally traveled the Atlantic as a ghost.I was surprised they were still talking about her.So people started to make jokes.


I have a bad feeling about this year's Karen.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2854. 7544
Quoting 2772. mrmombq:
"HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO
60 MPH "


wow from a invest to a 60 mph tropical storm im imperssed lol talk of this season so far what tricks will karen be playing before land fall has to stay east to avoid that dry air too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know with TS Karen being this strong I think that by the time we look at landfall she could be a hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2845. FunnelVortex:


If it does become a Cat 2 or higher, everyone will owe him an apology. I've always trusted his forecast for gulf systems.


He was not right...he called for a hurricane yesterday evening with a distinct eye...I'd say that was far from right...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If the front has slowed down what will that do to Karen?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2836. washingtonian115:
What ever crystal ball he has he needs to hand it over!.Lol.
He's mental capabilities allowed him to see the future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2833. prcane4you:
A revenge? To whom? Gulf Coast?
6 years ago Karen had literally traveled the Atlantic as a ghost.I was surprised they were still talking about her.So people started to make jokes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Even if by some miracle it goes to low-end c3 it'd be coming off that peak prior to landfall. I give the odds of c3 at landfall of less than 2%. C2 odds of less than 10%. C1 odds of less than 25%. Strong TS odds are better that 50%. My own lame forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2837. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the system will be nearing landfall just to the left of mobile AL in about 68 hrs give or take a few

Morning Keeper :o) I'm not really sure I like that statment :o( just saying....

Taco :o(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2846. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
Quoting 2836. washingtonian115:
What ever crystal ball he has he needs to hand it over!.Lol.


If it does become a Cat 2 or higher, everyone will owe him an apology. I've always trusted his forecast for gulf systems.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
2843. nolajet
Quoting 2813. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
image


I don't like that map. That brings it home. Perhaps that generator that I got on sale earlier this summer will now pay off..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2842. GatorWX
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3580
2841. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2831. gulfbreeze:
She is heading for the loop Curent and there where Red Skys this morning over the Gulf and you know what that means sailors!
sailors take warning
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
That woke up the Blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2839. mfcmom
Quoting 2826. Sfloridacat5:


Be prepared for a hurricane in about 80-90 hours or so.
Thanks. On it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2827. FunnelVortex:


StormTrackerScott may have been right in his call of this becoming a pretty nice hurricane.


Always take caution of any spin within the Gulf of Mexico. Just hope people have not relaxed with the inactive season to date (with respect to ACE).

Thought shear was supposed to keep this in check?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2837. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2826. Sfloridacat5:


Be prepared for a hurricane in about 80-90 hours or so.
the system will be nearing landfall just to the left of mobile AL in about 68 hrs give or take a few
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
Quoting 2827. FunnelVortex:


StormTrackerScott may have been right in his call of this becoming a pretty nice hurricane.
What ever crystal ball he has he needs to hand it over!.Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2825. prcane4you:
A map.Do you have a computer?



no...I used my typewriter to type this message....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2812. CaneHunter031472:
Advisories might be delayed due to the furlough. the USCG recalled me this morning out of furlough due to this, and I am sure that most of the NHC people will be recalled as well.


Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2821. washingtonian115:
Hello Karen!.I see you have come back for revenge.Already 60mph.Could make a run at hurricane status.
A revenge? To whom? Gulf Coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2832. GetReal
Quoting 2811. cat6band:
Question....does anyone have a map to show where the cold front is presently? That really is the determining factor here as far as landfall...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
She is heading for the loop Curent and there where Red Skys this morning over the Gulf and you know what that means sailors!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2830. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
12L/TS/K/CX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
2829. 7544
hmm watching the convection it took a jump east will the coc follow it wheres that front located today could this stall and the front has time to catch it and shove it ne further south than the models show could get interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2828. GatorWX
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3580
Quoting 2821. washingtonian115:
Hello Karen!.I see you have come back for revenge.Already 60mph.Could make a run at hurricane status.


StormTrackerScott may have been right in his call of this becoming a pretty nice hurricane.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 2818. mfcmom:
Morning Peeps. Panama City mom here.. What's your call guys. Thanks need to prep the kidlets.


Be prepared for a hurricane in about 80-90 hours or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2811. cat6band:
Question....does anyone have a map to show where the cold front is presently? That really is the determining factor here as far as landfall...
A map.Do you have a computer?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2816. eyewallblues:
Atlas VS. Karen...THE MAIN EVENT.


Remember. The Extratropical storm ALWAYS wins.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
2823. EllasD
Local met just said TS/Hurricane Watches will be issued in the next few hours for the Ms Gulf Coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2813. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





wow...so according to that map, the front slows a little bit bringing it a little more west to the mouth of the river....hmmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello Karen!.I see you have come back for revenge.Already 60mph.Could make a run at hurricane status.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2809. taco2me61:


I would say "Don't" wait untill the last minute....
Everyone from the Mouth of the MS River to Pensacola FL needs to get things done.Such as Fuel before some stations run out....


Taco :o)

I'd extend that further to near Cedar Key. Especially since more of the worse weather will be likely on the Eastern part.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2804. LightningCharmer:
I've noticed that myself. Don't know if this is a policy shift or just access to better data nowadays. It seems in the past, there was more a lean to classify a system as a TD earlier. In the past, have witnessed some rather disorganized storms on satellite imagery that were classified as TD's that made many on this blog question the classification.

IMHO, believe the authorities were trying to error on the side of safety because people pay attention to TD's whereas most had not even heard of an Invest until the last few years unless they were weather professionals or enthusiast.

Would be interested if there are any statistics on where most of the general public obtains weather information today as opposed to a decade ago.


Yeah, many of the storms this season we're obviously T.D. or T.S. well before the NHC classified them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2818. mfcmom
Morning Peeps. Panama City mom here.. What's your call guys. Thanks need to prep the kidlets.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97L...I mean KAREN... is doing dandy and has some intense convection. DMAX did really well with it.



I am thinking we should have listened to Scott yesterday concerning how impressive the storm looks right now AND what the NHC says.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Atlas VS. Karen...THE MAIN EVENT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2866 - 2816

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
56 °F
Overcast