97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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latest as of 5 mins a go

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One last unreported fact about the New Orleans Screw Pump

The drainage system today consists of Wood Screw Pumps of various sizes,the largest of which is fourteen feet in diameter.


The Pumps go International

Before World War I the Dutch government launched one of the world’s greatest engineering projects -- reclamation of the Zuyder Zee. The estimated cost was
$125 million. The project was to extend over a period of thirty-five years.


Centuries ago the area covered by the Zuyder Zee was dry land, and the south part of the present sea was Lake Fleve. Northwest tempests repeatedly swept
the North Sea, washing away the neck of land between the sea and lake and finally formed the Zuyder Zee, a territory as large as Rhode Island. It constituted a
twelfth of the entire area of Holland, capable of supporting 300, 000 people.

The first job was to dike out the North Sea. Then the pumping.

The Dutch government had learned about the famous Wood Screw Pump and sent a representative to see Wood. He gave blueprints and the exclusive rights for the manufacture and sale of Wood Pumps in continental Europe to the Werkspoor Company on December 14, 1916.

Years later, when Mrs. Wood visited the pumping
station at Keon Molen, the Dutch officials treated her like visiting royalty, proudly exhibiting the pumping station, where the floor had been covered with red carpetingfor the occasion.


The pumps were also installed in Egypt, China and India.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566


These Observations would suggest that 97L finally has a closed circulation near 18N/85W
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12z gfs is pushing it Into the yucatan now........
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had to google palatable

I was talking to my dad about the saints. he says that mr. brees does a lot for others and the he is not a hot dog shaking his bottom all over the field :)hope they have a great season.

Near Van Ness, San Francisco
Elevation
49 ft
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature
57.2 °F
Feels Like 57.2 °F
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Reason HH haven't left yet?

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSTECT AREA -- CNTRAL CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 02/1445Z
D. 18N 85W
E. 1730-2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
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12z gfs just starting...........
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Quoting 166. Patrap:
The Doom is palatable..

There appears to be some decent outflow over the north half. Which is a little concerning. When these things start to breath, things happen.
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POSS T.C.F.A.
97L/XX/XX
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206. HCW
Quoting 200. LargoFl:
hope these tracks dont change..........


I do we have a large outside music fest here starting Friday called Bayfest and I don't want to see it get canceled
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
Quoting 158. StormTrackerScott:


It's about as closed as it gets and yes this is a TS right now. Recon will probably confirm that this afternoon.


If this was a TS the NHC would of came out with a special weather statement and classified it already. It's not.
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19N 84.5W best estimate from me:

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IF it makes that right hand turn it may miss that sheer up by the northern gulf coast..we need to stay alert...it may not weaken as much as currently thought if it Does make the turn.
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Few weeks ago, I would have just say "What closed circulation? Look like a mess of a wave" because I'm looking at mid-level or upper-level clouds. However, I now know that the faint clouds on visible satellite just outside the "blob" of clouds are low clouds and by looking at that, there a good chance of circulation.
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If Pumping capacity for he Large Inner City Pumping Stations, with the HUGE Screw Pumps, is like 1 inch per hour Rain Rate for the first 2 Hours, then a Half inch per Hour thereafter.

I live 1000 feet from one. Surge is the deadly Force in Coastal regions like ours.



The Program: The ASME National Historical
Mechanical Engineering Landmarks. .


The Pump
The Wood Screw Pump, which is still used in the city, consists of a syphon in
the summit. Inside the syphon is a steel bladed rotating impeller. The casing is
split horizontally to facilitate access to the interior of the pump. The pumps were
placed at the top of a pipe syphon which had pipe connections to the suction and
discharge canals without the intervention of valves or gates. Priming was accomplished by means of rotary vacuum pumps. By admitting air to the casing before
stopping the pump, the vacuum is broken and the water is prevented from syphoning
back into the suction basin.
This pump, then the biggest and most powerful in the world, later made New
Orleans the mecca for the world’s engineers. In light of this, it seems strange
that local opposition had to be overcome before thirteen of these pumps could be
ordered and built. It was estimated that each would cost $15, 000. Each would
have a capacity of 392 million gallons a day. In operation all at once, they would
pump a column of water ten feet square, over a mile and a half high. On November 7,
1913, the S&WB advertised for bids on the pump and immediate opposition came
from an unexpected source.
In the early days of the struggling inception of the S&WB there were people who
preferred private ownership and operation giving the city the option to buy later,
who suggested that the franchise originally given a defunct sewerage company be
renewed. The matter was referred to a special city council committee. Pending
the action of this committee, a plan was proposed to create a sewerage, drainage
and water ordinance which called for a special two mills tax and the use of one
half the surplus of the one percent debt tax that was passed largely due to the
previously mentioned publicity and educational campaign organized by the women


Winds do damage and the Cat 3 Betsy had High winds when I was 5, and K as well.


Cindy in 05 did knock power out to over 270,00 though, and was a fast forming, N mover one as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
hope these tracks dont change..........
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199. eddye
so wat scott is saying is this could be like a track like wilma had and come closer 2 south fla
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Quoting 195. StormTrackerScott:


Really. Maybe you should see where the 8am intialization was then and look at where 20N is.



Lol. I'm aware. It's a possibility that it causes a nice shift in track, not a guarantee. That is what you don't understand.
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197. HCW
Are OBama's kids doing the NHC circles right now with the Govt being shut down ? Really only 40% ? What a joke ! Well at least we get recon later today :) Stay classy my friends
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Quoting 172. MississippiWx:


These absolutes are what get people to turn on you, Scott. There is no evidence that this will cause a "big" eastward shift in track yet. Lol. Just wait.


Really. Maybe you should see where the 8am intialization was then and look at where 20N is.

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194. xcool
HurricaneAndre opps .thanks
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Quoting 166. Patrap:
The Doom is palatable..



Pat, how many inches can NOLA take before things start going sideways? How much wind?
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Quoting 187. Drakoen:


Not disagreeing, just observing :)


I know. It's a good observation. For realz. :-)

You know I <3 you.
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Thanks!:)
Quoting 188. Tazmanian:


18z
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Quoting 184. StormTrackerScott:


A relocation in like that would cause a big track shift. A shift like that would cause 97L to miss the Yucatan and go thru the Channel as the GFS showed yesterday.


Current trajectory, even at that location, puts this directly over the Yucatan.
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Quoting 155. guygee:
The Zombies:

Well no one told me about her
the way she lied
Well no one told me about her
how many people cried
But it's too late to say you're sorry
How would I know why should I care
Please don't bother tryin' to find her
She's not there.

Best post of the day! (or maybe just me getting old and nostalgic about a great song! lol)
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Quoting 177. SFLWeatherman:
What time is HH going into 97L


18z
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Quoting 182. MississippiWx:


Maybe. That is still questionable, though. The GFS showed the mid-level vort staying dominant. If that had been the case, it would be around 21-22N right now.



Not disagreeing, just observing :)
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Quoting 174. FunnelVortex:
Please don't hate on Scott...


Are you his momma or something? No one is hating. If you can't handle the debate, ignore and move on.
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Quoting 181. xcool:
130pm
No it leaves at this time.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011525
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 01 OCTOBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSTECT AREA -- CNTRAL CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 02/1445Z C. 03/0300Z
D. 18N 85W D. 21N 86W
E. 1730-2200Z E. 0530-1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT E. SFC TO 10,000FT


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW

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Quoting 172. MississippiWx:


These absolutes are what get people to turn on you, Scott. There is no evidence that this will cause a "big" eastward shift in track yet. Lol. Just wait.


A relocation in like that would cause a big track shift. A shift like that would cause 97L to miss the Yucatan and go thru the Channel as the GFS showed yesterday.
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Based on low-level cloud motions, Invest 97L has a closed circulation. It looks very broad and the system may be undergoing a center reformation at this time, however. Maybe just south of 20N and just west of 84W?

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Quoting 146. Drakoen:


Sounds like what the GFS depicted yesterday. Also that microwave imagery xcool posted really tells the tale. You can see low level spiral bands wrapping into the low.


Maybe. That is still questionable, though. The GFS showed the mid-level vort staying dominant. If that had been the case, it would be around 21-22N right now.

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181. xcool
130pm
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some area is gonna get those 10 inch rains......
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This kinda reminds me of the relocation we had with Irene as she was nearing the Leeward Islands as the tracked shifted from FL to NC once the relocation occured near St Martin
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178. xcool
Drakoen I agree sir
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What time is HH going into 97L
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Good Morning All,

I hope to have my "Boat" finished by Friday Nite :o)

Looks like I just might need it by Saturday :o)

Taco :o)
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Quoting 167. MississippiWx:
I'd say anywhere between 18.5N-19.5N and 85W. Yes, that is a broad brush on the latitude of the storm, but there is really no absolute for now.


That's what I was seeing too. 850 vort map is stretched up into that region. Like I said, I gotta take a break and come back to look again. I find it hard to try and follow min for min when things are jumpy like this.
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Please don't hate on Scott...
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DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20131002 1145 18.4 84.7 T1.0/1.0 97L 97L
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Quoting 153. StormTrackerScott:
Track will shift east big time once the NHC can confirm this as 97L will miss the Yucatan and go thru the Channel and into the eastern Gulf.

Quoting 158. StormTrackerScott:


It's about as closed as it gets and yes this is a TS right now. Recon will probably confirm that this afternoon.


These absolutes are what get people to turn on you, Scott. There is no evidence that this will cause a "big" eastward shift in track yet. Lol. Just wait.
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Quoting 158. StormTrackerScott:


It's about as closed as it gets and yes this is a TS right now. Recon will probably confirm that this afternoon.


Please don't make a statement like that...there is absolutely nothing to support such a thing....
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Would not be surprised if the recon found westerlies as the low cloud motions suggest.
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Quoting 159. FunnelVortex:
How is this not a typhoon yet?




You should see this:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2013 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 19:51:20 N Lon : 129:46:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 983.1mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.2 2.3

Center Temp : -11.1C Cloud Region Temp : -49.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.64 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 19:02:59 N Lon: 130:10:11 E

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 98km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.0 degrees


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I'd say anywhere between 18.5N-19.5N and 85W. Yes, that is a broad brush on the latitude of the storm, but there is really no absolute for now.
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The Doom is palatable..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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