97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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T.C.F.A. soon I reckon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55971
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12z GFS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
cyclonic turning has commence



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55971
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 16:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)

Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 16:07Z

Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.4N 88.8W
Location: 133 miles (214 km) to the SE (145°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 220° at 28 knots (From the SW at ~ 32.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -17°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -22°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,580 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 14 knots (~ 16.1mph)
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Quoting 306. HeinrichFrogswatter:


That would put it almost directly over the Yucatan Basin buoy, where the winds are 17.5 kts and the pressure is 1010.8 mb. That would make it hard to justify the calls from some to name it a TS


It also could be the mid level spin.
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Quoting 308. CybrTeddy:
Recon just took off.


Finally!
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Just two days ago none of the models developed 97L into a cyclone, so I'm not inclined to trust them on intensity forecasts now. The models are not good with cyclogenesis or intensity. I'll trust them on short-term tracks. This storm has really grown in size and is moistening its environment. I think the storm will be stronger than predicted heading into the southern GOM and will be pushing back more of the dry air. Let's hope the shear can beat it down!
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Recon just took off.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
First rain bands coming through now.
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305. IKE
That 12Z GFS is close to my location on it's final landfall. Give or take 30-50 miles.
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For later perhaps...



...if you don't have it.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 287. ecomarine:
It appears that 97L has become stationary at 17.0W 85N.

The steering currents support this possibility with an eventual SW movement possible. Any agreement?



Yeah, steering has changed the whole ball game in the last few hours.
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302. IKE
84 hour 12Z GFS...


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Quoting 252. Patrap:


That is most definitely coming together.
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I'd put the low level center somewhere near 19.5-20.5n: 85-86w
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299. IKE

4m
Not used to seeing such narrow band of precip w/landfalling TS but I suppose that's due to front. GFS 5-day total QPF
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Good morning from Central OK,

Warm and sticky here, as low level moisture is being fed into the region from the GOM, RH is at 80%. Forecast was supposed to be for sunny skies, but a low level cloud base dominated this morning. Looks as if it is finally clearing out, and a warm "tropical-like" day is in store.

Only thing of note is the mini-swarm of earthquakes that occurred last night around Enid, and Monday to the south of me. Happy to report the only rockin' 'n rollin' here was of the musical kind. :)

A front is to approach from the west late this week - local forecasts indicate a possibility for severe weather mainly in the form of high winds and hail. The NWS indicates most of this activity will be centered in the Northern Plains. Timing? Well that remains to be seen as the GFS and ECMWF are in disagreement. All in all, it could be a fun Friday/Saturday for the Plains states.

In the tropics - Jerry shuffling slowly off to the NE - and may ultimately impact the Azores with some rain and gusty conditions.

97L does not appear to be vertically stacked, with the LLC located SW of the mid-level circulation. Seems like its a coin toss as to whether or not it develops, and the doc is downcasting this. Regardless, the story will be rains, not wind, for the Gulf Coast.

Hope you and yours are having a good one. Will catch you later.



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297. IKE

4m
Wowie Zowie, 97L looks good. Recon should be interesting

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On their way

URNT11 KNHC 021610
97779 16074 40284 88800 73200 22028 67721 /5758
RMK AF301 01GGA INVEST OB 01
SWS = 14 KTS
;
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Overall view looks like the center is at 85w 20N moving NW.
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97L got that look... except it's not spinning it look like from satellite. However, it's really spinning underneath at lower level judging by low clouds on visible.
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We'll find out when the HHs get in there ... I will be checking back with keen interest then.
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remember models are meant to be used for guidance purposes only and do not depict final outcome to any one single event things can and will change
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55971
Quoting 286. FunnelVortex:


oh goodness.... I jinxed it.
I have been here, just haven't wanted to comment.
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Quoting 288. Patrap:
The whole synoptic overall is improving.



improving very well maybe too well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55971
97L is finally wanting to pull together.. Hope I didn't jinks it.. HA.. It going over the highest TCHP in the Atlantic.. 84 degree water, 5-10 knot shear, but on the other hand dry air, plus not being aligned is going to slow development until it fixes those problems. Does anyone have an idea of where it will most likly track. Eruo takes it into eastern lousiana and GFS takes it to the western panhandle... Looks like it relocated its low level center to where mississippi stated so would it do anything as far as track and strength??? It might just shorten its time over the yucatan and more time over water which could mean a big difference in strength if the enviroment warrents.. Did I miss anything???
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The whole synoptic overall is improving.



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It appears that 97L has become stationary at 17.0W 85N.

The steering currents support this possibility with an eventual SW movement possible. Any agreement?

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Quoting 271. SuperStorm093:
what? that is a direct callout, if I am wrong with my forecast of a TD at best, that is fine. Nothing wrong with being wrong lol.


oh goodness.... I jinxed it.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Keep in mind from my observations of Houston, TX for WxChallenge, GFS haven't been having a great week so we'll see.
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Quoting 273. kmanislander:
Updated 925 mb vort



Thanks.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 277. Patrap:
Teal 70 goes wheels up at 18Z.

Unless cancelled.



1. SUSTECT AREA -- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 02/1445Z
D. 18N 85W
E. 1730-2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT


It was supposed to depart at 14:45Z.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14883
Quoting 277. Patrap:
Teal 70 goes wheels up at 18Z.

Unless cancelled.




I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSTECT AREA -- CNTRAL CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 02/1445Z C. 03/0300Z
D. 18N 85W D. 21N 86W
E. 1730-2200Z E. 0530-1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT E. SFC TO 10,000FT

they must have changed this then
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This might help some folks...

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We are still unsure with the 12Z GFS on what will happen with 97L... still going through the data and waiting on the Euro.
Right now 97L in relation to the models are slightly slower than what the GFS depicts. It has 97L making into the southern GOM in the next 24hr or so but the midlevel high steering flow suggests its about 6-12hrs behind schedule and not till later in the afternoon or evening on Thurs. All depends on if a llc forms around cozumel tonight or gets organized quicker and stays further SE. GFS has gone back to a Panama City landfall...this sound reasonable at this time but the speed of the coldfront and the formation of the LLC and placement in 24hrs will determine how far west if gets or if it turns east quicker on Saturday into Sunday. Strength of the system is still up for grabs. A quicker turn NE will give 97L another 12hrs of GOM. We are not expecting much shear this weekend due to a weak ridge forming over a CDO and this moving in tandom to the NE ahead of the front.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55971


19.802 N 84.857 W








I think it's trying to establish further north, but for now llc seems pretty evident sw of deeper convection. It does looks to be broader than early this morning and elongating/getting tugged towards the north into convection. That may also account for the slow movement some have commented on, as the overall convective mass looks to be heading around 10-15 or thereabouts.

I want something to either establish or for this thing to die out again like every other day. I hate when toy with us, lol. Time, time, time....
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Teal 70 goes wheels up at 18Z.

Unless cancelled.



1. SUSTECT AREA -- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 02/1445Z
D. 18N 85W
E. 1730-2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
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Quoting 273. kmanislander:
Updated 925 mb vort



Pretty close to the area I've been saying.
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An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/97l-i n-western-caribbean-still-a-threat-to-develop#fpVg Jm054xwDI4wz.99
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Quoting 268. FunnelVortex:


Doesn't leave 'till later.


supposed to have left at 10:45
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Updated 925 mb vort

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Definitely some rotation beginning to develop. You can see it in the last few frames, the yellow (low-level) clouds on the Western and Southern side of the system are starting to wrap in toward the center.

It even looks like what resembles outflow on the Western side. Is this even possible at this point?

Will be very interesting to watch now.


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Quoting 263. FunnelVortex:
This is the time of day yesterday when that little troll got out of his cage. I wonder if we will see him again...
what? that is a direct callout, if I am wrong with my forecast of a TD at best, that is fine. Nothing wrong with being wrong lol.
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I can see some lower-level clouds coming from the NW (!) near the coast outside of the CDO so there probably is a closed circulation under there. Maybe it really will get promoted to Karen when the HHs get in there. Probably will get knocked back down too when it hits the Yucatan coast.

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Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 011525
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 01 OCTOBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSTECT AREA -- CNTRAL CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 02/1445Z C. 03/0300Z
D. 18N 85W D. 21N 86W
E. 1730-2200Z E. 0530-1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT E. SFC TO 10,000FT


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW
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Quoting 266. stormpetrol:
Wonder what happen Recon hasn't left yet?


Doesn't leave 'till later.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Wonder what happen Recon hasn't left yet?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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