97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 362. bigwes6844:
where is the front located anyone? this storm seems to be picking up speed for sum reason

Back in the Rockies moving slowly eastward.Link
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
Quoting 357. DavidHOUTX:
This could be quite a scary situation in the next few days. Great ventilation already helping the storm. I would guess this is a TS after HH do their thing.



What with the steering, if models start nudging W, 97L in theory could run up on us, stall out against the front, and spin off rain for days?
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364. Skyepony (Mod)
Wish recon would turn on the High Density (HDOB) Messages.. That's some of my fav data from them. Usually that is on.
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Quoting 355. FOREX:


From the current motion and that front still a long ways away, do you think the models will move further West than even Mobile?


I think it's a possibility. This is from NWS/New Orleans this morning:

"Taking a peep at the models again today it looks like the European model (ecmwf)
continues to be slower with the progression of the front and would
allow the tropical feature to get further west and much closer to
the forecast area. The GFS on the other hand is more progressive
with the front by about 12 hours and keeps the tropical feature to
the east of the forecast area keeping the bulk of the
precipitation to the east of the area."
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where is the front located anyone? this storm seems to be picking up speed for sum reason
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Yesterday's F1 twister in Aguada Puerto Rico...



Note for Admin; I do not sponsor that link on the video... I post having weather interest only...
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Quoting 258. unknowncomic:
Florida Waterspout Chasers...


Going out into the open ocean in an open top boat in the middle of thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts? And then then driving practically through a waterspout?

This isn't ballsy. It's stupid. Very stupid. They were lucky they weren't Darwin award winners.
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Marine Band Chatter is yakking on 97L, they know the HH en route.

3pm CDT PHI,other Helo outfits meeting with Rigs.Companies on Transpiration Flight Limits and contingency plans.

Crew Boats as well.
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358. IKE
Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W

Date: Wed, 02 Oct 2013 15:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (115)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and steady
Air Temperature: 80.2 F
Dew Point: 77.4 F
Water Temperature: 84.4 F
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
This could be quite a scary situation in the next few days. Great ventilation already helping the storm. I would guess this is a TS after HH do their thing.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
355. FOREX
Quoting 352. LAbonbon:


And I've been rooting for that front too...it's taking it's sweet time it seems


From the current motion and that front still a long ways away, do you think the models will move further West than even Mobile?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
353. IKE
97L has really taken off this morning. Interesting to see what the HH find.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting 343. sunlinepr:
Free way into Conus.... trough or front still far away...



And I've been rooting for that front too...it's taking it's sweet time it seems
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My best guess is 19.5N 85.0W
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
I believe a new center is developing at 19.5 84.5... but we shall see once the HH arrives.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038


GFS has backed off somewhat... sigh
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Quoting 345. Patrap:
Da Mojo Factor is rising



Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893


Navgem takes hard right turn along SE La coast.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT11/KNH

Decoded data from last 30 minutes: AF Trop. RECCO (URNT11) (1) (Minutes since ob are noted)

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 16:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 16:38Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 26.0N 87.8W
Location: 307 miles (495 km) to the SSE (153) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 190 at 13 knots (From the S at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -15C
Flight Level Dew Point: -40C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,600 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 17 knots (~ 19.6mph)
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Da Mojo Factor is rising

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Serious question, is the decoder not running due to the government shutdown? Only straight reporting to NHC?
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Free way into Conus.... trough or front still far away...

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Troll mode ON

TIRED WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN

Troll mode OFF

(lol getting ready for some bloggers attacks)
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I would have to say the center is located near 19.6N 84.2W moving WNW-NW I think it may pass through the Yucatan Channel without much land interaction by that Time I say it would be either a 45MPH or 50MPH TS and quickly strengthening I say by the time it makes landfall it could very well be a hurricane (ok this maybe a little slightly enthusiastic)
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NAVGEM 84 hours




Coming in towards Se La.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
339. bwi
Quoting 300. TheDawnAwakening:
I'd put the low level center somewhere near 19.5-20.5n: 85-86w


I think it's SW of those coordinates, based SSE winds and pretty high pressure at the buoy at 20n 85w?
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338. IKE

1m
maps developed by best out there show heavy snows while ts hitting gulf coast



6m
Another look at 97L which is liable to cause ts conditions in LaMisAla coastal waters this weekend
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860


If this image is old, I apologize,but it updates automatically.
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Quoting 331. CybrTeddy:
I'll admit though that 97L has been doing some work today.


She's really won me over.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Quoting 329. bigwes6844:
ECMWF really? So i guess they saying another K storm for us again smh! Come on Cold front where are u!


Hardly.. weak TS at best.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
334. IKE

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not bad.


@IKE, don't worry, it'll be 10-15mb weaker if it does hit you.
Don't need any wind plus rain at my location. I'm surrounded by trees. An afternoon thunderstorm with wind blew branches down a few weeks ago. 
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Definitely looks a lot better today will wait to see what recon says.
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October 2012 week before Sandy -
Link
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I'll admit though that 97L has been doing some work today.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting 313. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cyclonic turning has commence





She's diggin' in....
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ECMWF really? So i guess they saying another K storm for us again smh! Come on Cold front where are u!
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More instability :) Typical of october, which is our wettest month.
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Quoting 322. IKE:

Where is your location....Dothan? Or Mobile?


I'm in Mobile :o)
With Bayfest this weekend and 100,000 people being Drunk is not good
just saying

Taco :o)
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Not bad.


@IKE, don't worry, it'll be 10-15mb weaker if it does hit you.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting 316. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.A. soon I reckon
hey keep you turned it up too much! LOL now we at 480 degrees! Its getting too hot!
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19.2N and 85.4W is probably the "Best" location of where the LLC is at. Still though it's a elongated trough of low pressure extending from 22N 85W to 17N and 86W movement overall is to the NW at 12mph
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322. IKE

Quoting taco2me61:

Yea I don't like that at all :o(
just saying

Taco :o(
Where is your location....Dothan? Or Mobile?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I'm expecting a tropical depression later today, but I'm not ready to say tropical storm yet. At least 11 pm tonight, IMO.
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Quoting 305. IKE:
That 12Z GFS is close to my location on it's final landfall. Give or take 30-50 miles.

Yea I don't like that at all :o(
just saying

Taco :o(
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Quoting 317. wunderkidcayman:
I say we get TS Karen later today
Me too.
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Can't lie here, the storm is actually looking pretty good, still has some work to do. But my call of TD at best, could definitely end up being wrong.
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I say we get TS Karen later today
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T.C.F.A. soon I reckon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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