97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 456. StormTrackerScott:
Center is at 19N 85W moving NW at 9mph
maybe a tropical storm soon
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I suspect Recon will find the center around 18.3N/84.8W
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Quoting 458. StormTrackerScott:

Last 2 frames looks very healthy Scott. I believe my yucatan and dry air kill for this thing was wrong (eats crow, raw)
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There is ridge over the FL Penisula so we should be safe however a system coming ashore near Panama City would likely bring squally rains with the risk for tornadoes.

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invest 97L UP to 70%
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461. csmda
Why does this thing look so small on models but right now it's pretty darn big?

And yes, I am al gore, I invented the internet and I know my join date says 1970.
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Quoting 456. StormTrackerScott:
Center is at 19N 85W moving NW at 9mph


Look as if you may, perhaps, get the last laugh today...
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Winter Weather Watch: Snow from Cascades to Northern Plains

October 2, 2013

Our team of meteorologists, led by winter weather expert Tom Niziol, brings you the latest discussion on winter weather threats across the country.

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Center is at 19N 85W moving NW at 9mph
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454. FOREX
Quoting 450. StormTrackerScott:
I bet recon finds a 45mph TS Karen.



Hi Scott, welcome back.
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Quoting 451. FOREX:


Seems the front is not going to be a factor turning this storm NE, so I'm thinking a NOLA landfall.
Me too.
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451. FOREX
Quoting 440. MonsterTrough:
code red, per TWO. 70%


Seems the front is not going to be a factor turning this storm NE, so I'm thinking a NOLA landfall.
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I bet recon finds a 45mph TS Karen.

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FLOODING: SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
BROWARD COUNTY, WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WATERSPOUT OFF THE
BROWARD COUNTY COAST, WHERE A CONVERGENT LINE HAS FORMED.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
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Quoting 437. ChillinInTheKeys:


Only if company demands it... That's a tourist thing for the most part.

Chillin... I go to the keys quite often for diving and fishing with bf... I never go past Marathon anymore.. Nothing interests me at MM 0 zero anymore
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I suspect Recon will find TS Karen.
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Quoting 417. FOREX:


If the HH mention the BOC, I'm going to lie on railroad tracks.


BOC:

Blog of Cantankerousness?
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We still have a long way to go....

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Flood Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FLC011-021830-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0111.131002T1633Z-131002T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
1233 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOLLYWOOD...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 1231 PM EDT RADAR INDICATED A TOTAL OF ALMOST THREE INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN AND THERE ARE MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS,
STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW
LYING SPOTS. RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS IN CANALS
AND DITCHES.

LAT...LON 2609 8029 2609 8016 2598 8016 2597 8029

$$

SI
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
I get up when the sun gets up lol. Why wait?

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code red, per TWO. 70%
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finally

Time: 17:18:30Z
Coordinates: 22.8667N 86.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.7 mb (~ 11.60 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,725 meters (~ 25,344 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 414 meters (~ 1,358 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 91° at 19 knots (From the E at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: -16.5°C (~ 2.3°F)
Dew Pt: -31.7°C (~ -25.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
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Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 17:18Z
Date: October 2, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13

HDOB Observations


17:18:30Z 22.867N 86.500W 392.7 mb
(~ 11.60 inHg) 7,725 meters
(~ 25,344 feet) - 414 meters
(~ 1,358 feet) From 91 at 19 knots
(From the E at ~ 21.8 mph) -16.5C
(~ 2.3F) -31.7C
(~ -25.1F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 25.0 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
131.6%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 17:09:00Z (first observation), the observation was 326 miles (524 km) to the WSW (258) from Key West, FL, USA.
At 17:18:30Z (last observation), the observation was 121 miles (194 km) to the N (10) from Cancn, Quintana Roo, Mxico.
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Quoting 426. PalmBeachWeather:
No Duval Crawl?


Only if company demands it... That's a tourist thing for the most part.

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Quoting 424. GatorWX:


This thing has changed considerably since I got up this morning.


Will it be stronger than Isaac?

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Decoded data from last 30 minutes: AF HDOB (URNT15) (1), AF Trop. RECCO (URNT11) (18) (Minutes since ob are noted)

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 17:09Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 17:08Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 23.7N 86.9W
Location: 328 miles (528 km) to the W (260°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 110° at 12 knots (From the ESE at ~ 13.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -17°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -31°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,590 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 21 knots (~ 24.2mph)
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Quoting 424. GatorWX:


This thing has changed considerably since I got up this morning.
Depends what time you get up Gator
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Quoting 425. yoboi:


please don't start the AGW war today.....do it another time when there is no storm...thanks.....


Agreed with your proposal 100%... We should concentrate on the development of this CO2 storm that for sure has been caused by the warming of our planet.... ;)
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Quoting 427. ChillinInTheKeys:


She's startin' to get an attitude!!!


Definately starting to get that "look". Can't wait for what Recon finds
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Quoting 417. FOREX:


If the HH mention the BOC, I'm going to lie on railroad tracks.
That would put your eye out kid...
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On an interesting side note, notice how "clear" the E-Pac is at the moment. All that recent E-Pac activity probably suppressed some of the Atlantic sides of things.

While 97L is not in the most optimum environment at this time it is not competing, moisture or large scale synoptic sized, with another system in close proximity in the E-Pac.
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snow is coming soon
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Quoting 424. GatorWX:


This thing has changed considerably since I got up this morning.


She's startin' to get an attitude!!!
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Quoting 420. ChillinInTheKeys:


I like to call that "The Corona effect(With lime)". Which brings me to recall a cool ball lightning event earlier this year... Sans Corona with lime!!!
No Duval Crawl?
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425. yoboi
Quoting 406. aprinz1979:


Nope Al Gore did along with AGW


please don't start the AGW war today.....do it another time when there is no storm...thanks.....
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Quoting 419. sunlinepr:


This thing has changed considerably since I got up this morning.
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97L is rather large
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a big snow storm for the west!!!!!
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Click for loop:

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Quoting 407. PalmBeachWeather:
I guess that's what makes the "world go round" If we were all the same it sure would be boring...The variation of people makes it interesting. Some people even make "Duck Calls"


I like to call that "The Corona effect(With lime)". Which brings me to recall a cool ball lightning event earlier this year... Sans Corona with lime!!!
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417. FOREX
Quoting 409. bigwes6844:
oh boy here we go! blog gonna go crazy if theyfind a TD or TS karen


If the HH mention the BOC, I'm going to lie on railroad tracks.
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Quoting 414. LargoFl:
48-60 hours models have a pretty strong Tropical Storm..
50mph is not a strong ts, thats a weak one.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.