97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
2915. GatorWX
Not the most impressive, yet...



Degrading west side. It's moving wnw-nw, moisture seems to be lagging behind..
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2914. Gearsts
Quoting 2892. Tropicsweatherpr:
Not doing so well
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Fitow's eye is almost finished it seems



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We have Karen, everyone is going to DIE!!!!!!!!
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Well looking at this and the length of the GOM I would not be surprised if this become a hurricane and become the strongest one yet for the season

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WOW... Impressive

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2908. HCW
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
Quoting 2886. Tribucanes:


Well Mississippi, many are hailing Scott and I'm putting it in the perspective as it happened. That's exactly how it went down. I'm playing Devil's advocate for you and others who strongly disagreed with him. Reread what I wrote, I said he made this prediction for yesterday afternoon when conditions were far different. Still, he is owed some props for expecting a stronger system.


True
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2906. BrandiQ
Im still a little worried about this storm... no way of it coming to center or south fl right?
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Quoting 2885. GatorWX:


It's clearly shoving that high towards the east. I think the models have a pretty good handle. My opinion anyway.




But I also think the front is much more N than originally predicted at this point.
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Unlike most D.C workers I don't work for the federal government so I have work.I will monitor Karen though because after she's done with the Gulf she'll be running up here.
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Quoting 2892. Tropicsweatherpr:


That looks close. The center is definiately displaced west of the main convection.
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Quoting 2880. Doss2k:
It looks good in all the images, but still no well defined COC. It's like the opposite of all the storms earlier this year in the BOC that looked like trash but got named. This thing has the look but needs to define its surface low. Perhaps once it gets fully into the Gulf it will figure it out. I suspect a TS with 60 mph winds at landfall between NOLA and the mid FL panhandle.

More important for me is that I can keep the rains from drencing me here in NC as I am still waiting on the roofer to get out and fix the leaks in my roof. Don't want to have to setup all the buckets again :(.


We if this isn't well defined well I don't know what is

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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
Quoting 2868. Kristina40:
Have they started evacs on the oil rigs yet?


Yes

Link
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Quoting 2886. Tribucanes:


Well Mississippi, many are hailing Scott and I'm putting it in the perspective as it happened. That's exactly how it went down. I'm playing Devil's advocate for you and others who strongly disagreed with him. Reread what I wrote, I said he made this prediction for yesterday afternoon when conditions were far different. Still, he is owed some props for expecting a stronger system.


Edited so I don't get banned.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
And I'll give you this MississippiWX, Scott was mentioning possible eye and suggesting it was a strong TS already yesterday afternoon and those who disagreed were right. But we can at least give the guy that he was on to something.
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Quoting 2887. RTLSNK:
Lets talk about the storm and not about each other.
Thanks.


Nice - lets discuss the storm and information at hand.
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Good Morning. My preliminary comments. Pre-Karen made it through the the sheer gantlet in the Yucatan area. Agree with the lop-sided comments as to the right quadrant. As we can all see, the storm is relatively close to Florida and regardless of the ultimate track, the greatest effects will be felt along the Florida Gulf coastline. While it may make landfall anywhere from the Panhandle to the Big Bend region, the Florida Western Coast beaches and coastal communities are going to take a beach erosion/surge/wave beating over the next several days.

As I am in the Tallahassee region, I will keep Yall posted as to the conditions on the ground and near the coast in these parts.

It looks to be a Florida event and it will hopefully not be more than a tropical storm.

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2893. RTLSNK
Quoting 2887. RTLSNK:
Lets talk about the storm and not about each other.
Thanks.
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Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14331
Quoting 2889. palmpt:


Cancel the yard sale...


I was being facetious.
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2889. palmpt
Quoting 2879. biloxidaisy:


Guess I won't be having that yard sale Saturday. ;P


Cancel the yard sale...
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Quoting 2871. MississippiWx:


Lol. That is not how this went down. I'm not starting this up again today. It's in the past, but I'm pretty sure we all knew it would be a tropical storm today.

You need to give credit to him though that none of us believe this will be 60mph at the first adviosry.Last time this happen though I believe it was with Paula.
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2887. RTLSNK
Lets talk about the storm and not about each other.
Thanks.
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Quoting 2871. MississippiWx:


Lol. That is not how this went down. I'm not starting this up again today. It's in the past, but I'm pretty sure we all knew it would be a tropical storm today.



Well Mississippi, many are hailing Scott and I'm putting it in the perspective as it happened. That's exactly how it went down. I'm playing Devil's advocate for you and others who strongly disagreed with him. Reread what I wrote, I said he made this prediction for yesterday afternoon when conditions were far different. Still, he is owed some props for expecting a stronger system.
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2885. GatorWX
Quoting 2874. GetReal:




I am not convinced that the trough or frontal boundary will be as big a player as first forecast. It seem to be stalled over NW Texas.


It's clearly shoving that high towards the east. I think the models have a pretty good handle. My opinion anyway.

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2884. ncstorm
I do think some of the experts on here yesterday were only calling for a "rain event"..nothing else..
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I see 97l has organised itself much better than yesterday and we're now looking at tropical storm Karen. Be prepared and stay safe to those in its path!
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2882. vis0


 Free Image Hosting by imgbox.com
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2881. barbamz
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2880. Doss2k
It looks good in all the images, but still no well defined COC. It's like the opposite of all the storms earlier this year in the BOC that looked like trash but got named. This thing has the look but needs to define its surface low. Perhaps once it gets fully into the Gulf it will figure it out. I suspect a TS with 60 mph winds at landfall between NOLA and the mid FL panhandle.

More important for me is that I can keep the rains from drencing me here in NC as I am still waiting on the roofer to get out and fix the leaks in my roof. Don't want to have to setup all the buckets again :(.
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Quoting 2837. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the system will be nearing landfall just to the left of mobile AL in about 68 hrs give or take a few


Guess I won't be having that yard sale Saturday. ;P
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Quoting 2834. CybrTeddy:


Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.


Today, this blog will prove it's worth. If the NHC will remain on Furlough it is up to us to keep our respective comunities up to date. Be serious about it, don't wishcast or downcast east cast or west cast. Just look at thefacts and always advise your respective comunities to look for official information from local government and the NHC which i am sure will be issuing advisories. This is why this blog is so important.
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Good morning everyone; Karen.

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2876. GatorWX
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Quoting 2871. MississippiWx:


Lol. That is not how this went down. I'm not starting this up again today. It's in the past, but I'm pretty sure we all knew it would be a tropical storm today.



Yeap right LOL
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2874. GetReal
Quoting 2859. Chucktown:
Just a reminder, Karen is going to be a very lopsided system going forward. There is going to be a very tight moisture gradient on the west side of the storm. Increasing SW shear ahead of the trough combined with still a lot of dry air in the western and central Gulf spells a lot of rain east of the center and very little on its west side.




I am not convinced that the trough or frontal boundary will be as big a player as first forecast. It seem to be stalled over NW Texas. Shear therefore may not be as bad as earlier forecast.
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Quoting 2864. Tribucanes:
TSScott will have a good day, from goat, to owner of the proverbial crystal ball. Lets remember he was hyping this yesterday when it was far different, less stacked, shifting COC's, far less strong convection, and less organized. He was saying it could be "near" hurricane strength yesterday afternoon. I stood up for him, because I felt he was entitled to his opinion and I thought he was on to recognizing this could be a stronger than predicted system. Good for Scott though, he predicted this with little support and he stuck to his thinking.


For every hater out there that was talking BS about Scott LOL
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2872. barbamz
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Quoting 2864. Tribucanes:
TSScott will have a good day, from goat, to owner of the proverbial crystal ball. Lets remember he was hyping this yesterday when it was far different, less stacked, shifting COC's, far less strong convection, and less organized. He was saying it could be "near" hurricane strength yesterday afternoon. I stood up for him, because I felt he was entitled to his opinion and I thought he was on to recognizing this could be a stronger than predicted system. Good for Scott though, he predicted this with little support and he stuck to his thinking.


Lol. That is not how this went down. I'm not starting this up again today. It's in the past, but I'm pretty sure we all knew it would be a tropical storm today.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

1. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO
60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

invest 97L will be a hurricane soon.
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Current "official" surface map for Saturday. Front is coming down and will eventually push everything up the East coast.
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Have they started evacs on the oil rigs yet?
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For every hater out there that was talking BS about Scott LOL
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2866. 7544
hello looks like karen wants to hook a right at this hour
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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