97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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If the convection will continue firing over the broad center, it will help tighten up the core. It definitely looks the part of a TC on satellite.

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still waiting on 18z models im thinking there gonna be shifted back west once again
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2577
StormTrackerScott isn't a Met and probably never took classes of atmospheric science. He does have a wild passion for weather and hurricanes and you can see it gets to his judgements by not making sound statements on what is Really happening Meteorolgy wise with 97L and past systems. Hype by just looking at Satellite and not understanding basic concepts of how a tropical system develops- shows. While he can post anything he wants to say in a public forum, you can tell from the hype that he does that while people that took classes or just people who been understanding tropical development over years knows that you have to base alot of factors into it. Recon btw beats out everything that a satellite/local radar or anything else.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1637
713. IKE

Quoting GatorWX:
You guys really don't think this is a td huh?
I do.
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Quoting 693. CaribBoy:


Lol the blog is sooo funny XD


how's the blog ambiance now?
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
You guys really don't think this is a td huh?
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Quoting 702. Patrap:

Still looks as if the MLC and LLC are set on different speeds and directions
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709. whitewabit (Mod)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
Quoting 702. Patrap:

so......what are YOU thinking? I am not too far from where you live.
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updated...

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Quoting 697. GTstormChaserCaleb:
97L is working its way to the highest TCHP in the entire Atlantic Ocean.



look at that eddy in the middle of the GOM!
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Quoting 702. Patrap:
Starting to wind up its core and fanning out, a sign of nice upper level outflow.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8089
Cats fight is going on right now on the blog XD
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Cancun looking eastward...
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Quoting 696. floridafisherman:
please stop quoting superstorm03....hes a troll. please stop feeding the trolls!
Please state the reasons why I am a troll? Just because I forecast without wishcasting doesnt make me a troll.
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Quoting 673. SuperStorm093:
LMAO WISHCASTER ALERT


Actually, no. I don't WISH it to be a 100 mph storm. I just think that it's looking pretty good, and has plenty of time to get up to cat 2. Models yesterday were around 80 - 90 mph at the top end. They more often underestimate than overestimate.
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Quoting 681. CaribBoy:


Lol...
StormTrackerScott warning for Florida
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Quoting 694. MississippiWx:


Lol. Check the post above yours. So, yes, I have! ;-)


I'm actually not far from you bud I work for a private weather company in Jackson now. "Louisianaboy" is a little out-of-date.
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97L is working its way to the highest TCHP in the entire Atlantic Ocean.



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8089
please stop quoting superstorm03....hes a troll. please stop feeding the trolls!
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Quoting 684. MississippiWx:


Lol. You don't really understand the main point do you? It's very broad. Thus, it will not be strengthening quickly.


This does not look like a TD to me and only reinforces my view from this morning that 97L had work to do to get there. It remains to be seen if it gets classified with this run of the HH but I would be surprised at that unless something much more convincing comes along in the data before the run ends.
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Quoting 691. louisianaboy444:


Have you ever thought that maybe you are wasting your time lol


Lol. Check the post above yours. So, yes, I have! ;-)
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Quoting 684. MississippiWx:


Lol. You don't really understand the main point do you? It's very broad. Thus, it will not be strengthening quickly.


Lol the blog is sooo funny XD
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Hard to say what 97L is right now based off only a few passes. Give it time, recon's going to be there for a bit.
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Quoting 684. MississippiWx:


Lol. You don't really understand the main point do you? It's very broad. Thus, it will not be strengthening quickly.


Have you ever thought that maybe you are wasting your time lol
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Quoting 682. StormTrackerScott:


Don't say that the MississippiWx know it all weather will correct your opinion.


Lol. So, you have been wrong consistently all day. Now, I'm a know-it-all and we are going to start calling names?

Time to just put you on ignore since you can't debate like an adult.
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Quoting 682. StormTrackerScott:


Don't say that the MississippiWx know it all weather will correct your opinion.


XD
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Quoting 682. StormTrackerScott:


Don't that the MississippiWx know it all weather will correct your opinion.


How can you call him the "know it all" when you are talking in more directs than he is? I'm a degreed Meteorologist and I don't talk as confident as you do.
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if we can believe the gfs this will become a small tightly knit storm as it approaches the panhandle of florida, with deep pressure falls nearing landfall..990-991 MB is a strong storm....but thats days away and could change tomorrow....just everyone stay alert and listen to your Local warnings this weekend.......we all have been thru this before..stay alert and wait this out...plenty of time to prep if we need to beforehand.
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97L is still 97L with no inner closed LLC...just a trough.. Some like StormTrackerScott see the midlevel circulation that has a nice spin but it's not the LLC. 97L will get more organized tonight and even moreso on Thurs....20% chance the NHC makes this a TD at 5pm 50% chance by 5am Thurs morning(if this stays east of Cancun) and 80% chance 24hrs from now. Expect the midlevel circulation to tie in with the LLC later tonight and Thurs just NE of the Yucitan around 23N and 87W by Thurs evening
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1637
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Quoting 676. StormTrackerScott:


Broad or not we have atleast a TD here and this likely get stronger quickly now that it is getting better & better organized.


Lol. You don't really understand the main point do you? It's very broad. Thus, it will not be strengthening quickly.
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Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:58Z
Date: October 2, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 23

18:58:30Z 18.067N 84.683W 976.9 mb
(~ 28.85 inHg) 289 meters
(~ 948 feet) 1009.6 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 197° at 15 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 17.2 mph) 24.0°C
(~ 75.2°F) 20.6°C
(~ 69.1°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 20 knots*
(~ 23.0 mph*) 1 mm/hr*
(~ 0.04 in/hr*) 17.6 knots* (~ 20.3 mph*)
117.6%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 18:49:00Z (first observation), the observation was 194 miles (312 km) between the ENE and E (79°) from Belize City, Belize.

At 18:58:30Z (last observation), the observation was 234 miles (377 km) to the E (80°) from Belize City, Belize.
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Quoting 669. yonzabam:
97L is ramping up very nicely. Guesses for wind speed at landfall? I'll say a round 100 mph.


Don't say that the MississippiWx know it all weather will correct your opinion.
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Quoting 673. SuperStorm093:
LMAO WISHCASTER ALERT


Lol...
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Quoting 674. islander101010:
hebert.box#2..s.fl?
I think that only applies to a major hurricane passing through the box.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8089
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678. whitewabit (Mod)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
There is a band of dry air that is about to cycle in towards the coc over the next several hours on the most recent hi-res satt loops. That should keep things in check in the short term; once it mixes out that dry air in about 6-12 hours, we should see some consolidation of t-storms closer to the coc by late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

Yes; I took a very short break as this is the best action I have seen in weeks.............. :)
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Quoting 671. MississippiWx:


That's because anything under 10kts isn't really worth noting. It still makes my point that the system is very broad.


Broad or not we have atleast a TD here and this likely get stronger quickly now that it is getting better & better organized.
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This is a surface low, not a trough. This is a system becoming better defined by the satellite frame.
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hebert.box#2..s.fl?
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Quoting 669. yonzabam:
97L is ramping up very nicely. Guesses for wind speed at landfall? I'll say a round 100 mph.
LMAO WISHCASTER ALERT
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Quoting 625. hydrus:
Nice satellite presentation from NASA, Hydrus, looks new. And good afternoon everyone I suspect we are close to having our next named storm on the list which name is Karen. I also expect an uptick in blog traffic. Just a friendly reminder to those who are new here to not engage in personal attacks or bickering with trolls, if you come across one just flag or ignore or do what I do and scroll right past it. Also, keep off topic material off the blog or risk being banned.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8089
Quoting 664. Skyepony:
MSWX~ That recon map you keep posting blanks out the direction of everything under 10kts. It's making something that is swirling weak at the center look really broad with nothing going on in the middle.


That's because anything under 10kts isn't really worth noting. It still makes my point that the system is very broad.
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97L is ramping up very nicely. Guesses for wind speed at landfall? I'll say a round 100 mph.
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Quoting 665. Broward:
000
URNT12 KNHC 160242
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102013
A. 16/02:25:30Z
B. 23 deg 06 min N
096 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1362 m
D. 61 kt
E. 047 deg 15 nm
F. 142 deg 72 kt
G. 047 deg 15 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 17 C / 1512 m
J. 23 C / 1512 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 1410A INGRID OB 19
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 76 KT 353/16 02:31:30Z
;


that is not 97L
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Quoting 624. GeoffreyWPB:


Geez. the GFS keeps nudging landfall further south down the coast huh. Should we in central and southern Fla. be concerned Largo?
I am watching this one very closely..still a few days to go yet I think
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Quoting 658. bappit:
The line of convergence to the east is stealing energy from the circulation. The last invest through the NW Caribbean had a similar line of convergence trailing the circulation.


Seem as if the "pouchers" would agree

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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