97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Very disorganized structure from 97L. Huge pressure gradient as usual.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER METRO BROWARD AND NORTHERN MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS WITH LOWER
POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THIS DISTURBANCE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THURSDAY. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CAT OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA INCREASING TO CHANCE CAT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES ON FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD SHIFT THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MORE OF A NORTH TO
SOUTH SET UP MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOME MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THIS AREA IS CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH. SO THE POPS
WILL BE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE CAT OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
INCREASING TO A CHANCE CAT OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS ON
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE TAKING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOCUSING
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREA. SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.
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864. whitewabit (Mod)
if personal attacks don't end .. bloggers may find themselves unable to blog ..

Dr Masters blog is about weather lets remain on that subject !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 366 Comments: 32065
Quoting 848. 7544:


and staionary now hmmmm
you know tomorrow morning we come in here and it could very well be a whole new ball game huh..at least now we got a storm to follow.
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still look disorganized i think future karen name will be on hold by tomorrow if it survives dry air
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
Quoting 815. scottsvb:


True but when someone says its a TS and nearing Hurricane strength and telling people to be ready for a Cat 3 or higher storm-Scaring people who come on here and don't know any better, that's a cause for concern. Not everyone is smart in the world to know to just take the NHC and their local weather forecasts as the Main Source of Information. It's okay to speculate on what is going on...it's a public blog, but you have to not overdue it to cause alarm in people that isn't warrented yet.


Just chill out man!
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Quoting 841. StormTrackerScott:


What insane prediction did I make? What it is going to be a hurricane soon that is ridiculous. That's my opinion based on several factors and that's it. Your opinion is different than mine but you don't have to attack everything I post when you are wrong all time on here as well. Heck I could have attacked your post from 2 days ago when you gave this no chance at developing.


Yeah, when you find that post, come back at me. I made no such statement. I even looked at that blog again this morning.
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Quoting 850. Drakoen:
Some of you guys need a day job or need to get back to it. :)
And gals... 2 more months and I will not have a day job, or night job...Retiring............YES!!!
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We have Winter Storm Atlas. It's expected to drop near or over a foot of snow across a good part of Wyoming, with lesser yet still significant totals in surrounding locations. This will spread into the Dakotas after Friday, at which time it will also be capable of producing a foot of snow there. Pretty early for this type of storm.

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857. CJ5
Based on the RGB, 97L is really starting to spin up nicely. I believe there will be a significant change in the 24 hours. It is beginning to pull convection in and wrap developing a good amount of energy.
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Tropical storm Karen by 5 pm.?
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855. IKE

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Observation Time: Wednesday, 19:38Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.6N 86.2W
Location: 137 miles (221 km) to the E (87°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 25°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (extrapolated)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 3 knots (~ 3.5mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

POSSBLE CENTER FL WND LESS THAN 5KT FROM NW DIRECTION
Well........
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Take it to email guys, we have a possible future storm to discuss (secretly holds onto his prognostication of the yucatan and dry air killing the tropical entity)
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853. VR46L
Modis caught a beautiful shot of 97L

From RAMMB Website

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as you can tell from the HH, the looks are deceiving with this system, not strong at all.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Looks like a line of strong storms in south florida..
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Some of you guys need a day job or need to get back to it. :)
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Quoting 835. nrtiwlnvragn:
Observation Time: Wednesday, 19:38Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.6N 86.2W
Location: 137 miles (221 km) to the E (87°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 25°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (extrapolated)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 3 knots (~ 3.5mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

POSSBLE CENTER FL WND LESS THAN 5KT FROM NW DIRECTION


They dont classify on possibilities though do they ?. The winds out there are next to nothing. The strongest seen so far are well removed from that so called possible center and were probably found in a thunderstorm cell.

Not persuaded myself.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
848. 7544
Quoting 840. LargoFl:
hmmm local met is saying winds at 40mph now........


and staionary now hmmmm
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i guess the new models are gonna wait on recon im guessing. Normally they would have updated by now
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
Quoting 763. weathermanwannabe:
I am not wishcasting; I have just cancelled my in-shore Sunday fishing trip near Apalachicola......Rough seas and falling pressures, regardless of the configuration of storm, are not favorable conditions. Turns the bite off on the fish and very hard to see Redfish tails on the flats sicking out of the water in 4-6 foot swells.

I am not casting at all.............. :(
If you are still going to be in the area... Stop into a place called "Boss Oyster" a great dive with great oysters... Just a thought
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Every potent storm we track on WU I have learned to take with a huge rock of salt. So many "wow this could be cat 3 in a few days" end up as minor tropical storms or at best category 1s.
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97L has that looked to it now!
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Quoting 833. StormTrackerScott:


Scott your lying I never said be ready for a cat 3 or higher. I mean really. You are just trying to stir the pot because you can't even get your own forecast right. So take your get Scott propaganda somewhere else.

with a poss dev. system out there we should chill out a little maybe and let the NHC do there job and get the right info out there for people instead
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Quoting 801. opal92nwf:
Can we stop bullying people? Just because someone says something we don't agree with doesn't mean we have to bash them. Our focus is on 97L now, and we are all throwing our opinions around here because that is what this blog is about.


Agreed. Thanks!
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Quoting 831. MississippiWx:


Lol. Never fails. The blog continuously "takes up" for Scott like he's being bullied. When he makes insane predictions and crazy statements, people are going to correct him/bash him. It's not surprising really. And who is trying to be divisive? A debate I was having with Scott turned into him name-calling and being a child with everyone else nosing their way into the argument.

This is a science blog. Not an opinion blog. When you post things on a science blog, you better have proof to back up your claims when asked or questioned about them. It's no different than AGW arguments.


What insane prediction did I make? What it is going to be a hurricane soon that is ridiculous. That's my opinion based on several factors and that's it. Your opinion is different than mine but you don't have to attack everything I post when you are wrong all time on here as well. Heck I could have attacked your post from 2 days ago when you gave this no chance at developing.
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hmmm local met is saying winds at 40mph now........
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Quoting 831. MississippiWx:


This is a science blog.


Sadly, it doesn't seem that way most of the time.
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Quoting 825. sunlinepr:


Very large system, and it's starting to get that look. This one is trouble.
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Quoting 834. bigwes6844:
LOL i needed that especially here thanks dopp!


Haha Glad I could help :p
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be some beach erosion with this one
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Observation Time: Wednesday, 19:38Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.6N 86.2W
Location: 137 miles (221 km) to the E (87°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 25°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (extrapolated)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 3 knots (~ 3.5mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

POSSBLE CENTER FL WND LESS THAN 5KT FROM NW DIRECTION
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Quoting 824. Doppler22:


I didn't know there were waves over Belize and Guatemala :p jk
LOL i needed that especially here thanks dopp!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
Quoting 813. MississippiWx:


The NHC was completely wrong with Debby, so that's not really a fair storm to use. The only people forecasting Florida were, in fact, Florida residents. No coincidence really. Lol.



It's easy for FL resident's to forecast storms going there because it is so large.... Not like that 100yds that MS claims for it's "section" of the GOM.... LOL
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Quoting 816. Tribucanes:
Isn't some good tropical action the recipe for less contention? Who knows who is going be right? StormTrackerScott being perhaps overly bullish is perfectly fine. This is developing far faster than thought and certainly looks like a TD now at least. We may well be looking at a 60-80 mph storm over the weekend. Not even out of the question this RI's into a 100 mph storm in 48-72 hours. There are some here who are intentionally divisive, Scott doesn't fit that bill. I like Scott as a blogger and aren't there some who are far worse? When this tightens up, chances are it's not going to look as impressive as it does now as a broad area of strong convection with a surface circulation that may or may not be closed. As this consolidates over the evening we'll know a lot more.


Lol. Never fails. The blog continuously "takes up" for Scott like he's being bullied. When he makes insane predictions and crazy statements, people are going to correct him/bash him. It's not surprising really. And who is trying to be divisive? A debate I was having with Scott turned into him name-calling and being a child with everyone else nosing their way into the argument.

This is a science blog. Not an opinion blog. When you post things on a science blog, you better have proof to back up your claims when asked or questioned about them. It's no different than AGW arguments.
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sure is a big one down there..needs to solidify and get tightly knit to survive the gulf.
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Quoting 815. scottsvb:


True but when someone says its a TS and nearing Hurricane strength and telling people to be ready for a Cat 3 or higher storm-Scaring people who come on here and don't know any better, that's a cause for concern. Not everyone is smart in the world to know to just take the NHC and their local weather forecasts as the Main Source of Information. It's okay to speculate on what is going on...it's a public blog, but you have to not overdue it to cause alarm in people that isn't warrented yet.


Agreed Scottsvb.

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
301 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FLC086-022100-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0112.131002T1901Z-131002T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
301 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SWEETWATER...WESTCHESTER...
SOUTH MIAMI...KENDALL...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING FROM THE SWEETWATER AREA,
EXTENDING SOUTH TO KENDALL AND SOUTH MIAMI. DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATES THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THESE AREAS
OVER THE PAST HOUR. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED STREET FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2580 8027 2563 8030 2563 8045 2581 8039

$$

GREGORIA
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Looking prettier than earlier, but it's still quite broad and the MLC and LLC are decoupled a bit. It'll be interesting to see what will happen when the LLC starts to cross the Yutican Penisula. I'm half expecting one of the circulations to stall as the other one races off.
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Quoting 777. CosmicEvents:

huh...that's actually a reason to be LESS concerned.
Do you know what you're looking at?


I hope when there's a life threatening storm (according to some this is "the one"), a few folks will be courteous enough to step aside and pipe down for a bit.

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Quoting 775. bigwes6844:
wave heights up to 8ft


I didn't know there were waves over Belize and Guatemala :p jk
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Quoting 763. weathermanwannabe:
I am not wishcasting; I have just cancelled my in-shore Sunday fishing trip near Apalachicola......Rough seas and falling pressures, regardless of the configuration of storm, are not favorable conditions. Turns the bite off on the fish and very hard to see Redfish tails on the flats sicking out of the water in 4-6 foot swells.

I am not casting at all.............. :(
A smart choice ... Nothing worse that trying to enjoy a fishing day in big swells... Been there
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hmm mite be interesting 5 day rain forecast
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
Quoting 810. PalmBeachWeather:
Largo...So far it looks like the brunt of the storm will miss you... But maybe a crappy day this weekend
yeah thats what local mets are saying so far..thurs nite fri morning we should know for sure.
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Quoting 809. GetReal:


Hmmmmmm!


yup
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
Quoting 808. GatorWX:
Quit arguing people...

...you are all correct!

Good grief. It's a weather blog, lol. What point are you proving? Is it making you feel bigger?? Do you understand how the ignore feature works? Some of you are hilarious!
Quoting 808. GatorWX:
Quit arguing people...

...you are all correct!

Good grief. It's a weather blog, lol. What point are you proving? Is it making you feel bigger?? Do you understand how the ignore feature works? Some of you are hilarious!
Quoting 811. bigwes6844:
omg wow folks 97L is the attention please everybody this could be something serious. lets keep focus on a potential land falling system.


Lol. Who is arguing now? It has been over for at least 10 minutes...
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97=winding up on visible loop
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Isn't some good tropical action the recipe for less contention? Who knows who is going be right? StormTrackerScott being perhaps overly bullish is perfectly fine. This is developing far faster than thought and certainly looks like a TD now at least. We may well be looking at a 60-80 mph storm over the weekend. Not even out of the question this RI's into a 100 mph storm in 48-72 hours. There are some here who are intentionally divisive, Scott doesn't fit that bill. I like Scott as a blogger and aren't there some who are far worse? When this tightens up, chances are it's not going to look as impressive as it does now as a broad area of strong convection with a surface circulation that may or may not be closed. As this consolidates over the evening we'll know a lot more.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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