97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

Share this Blog
63
+

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 916 - 866

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Quoting 876. bigwes6844:
would be kinda surprise if it gets to a TD. it really looks bad. outflow is beautiful.


It looks to be creating a better environment for a run later though... Pushin' a lot of moisture out into that dry area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
915. VR46L
PBW and FMG congratulations to ya both ! Hope I will still see you round from time to time after retirement
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 903. VR46L:


Here ya go

gfs 2013100212 Forecast 850200shear Java Animation


Poop, that has it coming towards me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a mess. Still could technically be classified...barely.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Big shower.... but of course it will miss me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 884. daddyjames:


Yes



Thanks, since there is a circulation, I believe we will see classification for TD12, but Karen may wait till tomorrow. Guess we will find out eventually.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
Directing your attention a bit northward....

WINTER SUMMARY: OCT. 2, 2013 (MORNING UPDATE)

Overview: Long-lived early season snow storm from the Cascades through the Northern Rockies to Northern Plains Wednesday through Saturday.

Thursday into Saturday: Cascades Through Northern Rockies To Northern Plains

A long-lived significant early season winter storm will produce heavy, wet snow as well as strong winds across the area over the next several days. Snow will first affect the Pacific Northwest where elevations above 5000 ft across the Olympics and Cascades could see 4 to 8 inches of snowfall Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/news/winter-weather-wa tch-2013-2014-20131002#8B3tHC5bhyTZxSxD.99

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
907. 7544
Quoting 896. nrtiwlnvragn:
If they do designate it would go straight to K.. K... Karen. Best Track updated to 35kt


AL 97 2013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB


Link


yep lets see how long this stall last .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 870. StormTrackerScott:


Maybe you should post this to the ones that are on here lying. Come Keeper! Funny you quote me but you don't post this to some of these other bloggers on here.
It's the blue shirt Scott... Tried to warn you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like its trying to wrap around the center to me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Models are shift more towards the east... could be a west coast of Fl storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
903. VR46L
Quoting 891. StormPro:


Not that I remember..where would I look


Here ya go

gfs 2013100212 Forecast 850200shear Java Animation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 866. CybrTeddy:
Very disorganized structure from 97L. Huge pressure gradient as usual.

You mean small gradient, right? A huge gradient would mean the pressure drops very quickly near the center.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
well IF it goes into the panhandle or big bend..whats there you ask?....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
900. IKE

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
If they do designate it would go straight to K.. K... Karen. Best Track updated to 35kt


AL 97 2013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB


Link
Name it NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
899. 7544
nhc says td at anytime so go with that .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
898. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
3:00 AM JST October 3 2013
======================================

Near Minami tori-shima

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.7N 150.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.2N 148.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FITOW (T1323)
3:00 AM JST October 3 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fitow (985 hPa) located at 19.5N 129.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.6N 129.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South Southeast of Naha (Okinawa)
48 HRS: 23.6N 128.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South Southeast of Naha (Okinawa)
72 HRS: 25.9N 125.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
EXTRATROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC SEPAT (T1322)
3:00 AM JST October 3 2013
======================================

Sea East Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Sepat (990 hPa) located at 40.0N 146.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The extratropical low is reported as moving northeast at 35 knots.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Quoting 889. FtMyersgal:


Me too! Congrats to you!
We earned it gal
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If they do designate it would go straight to K.. K... Karen. Best Track updated to 35kt


AL 97 2013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The circulation of 97L is becoming more apparent with time on satellite. If we don't have a tropical storm at 5pm EDT (too broad?), we'll probably have to wait until the morning.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting 873. Tribucanes:


Why do you assume I meant you when I said some here are intentionally divisive? I didn't but you apparently inferred it out of defensiveness. And it's okay for a group to jump on Scott but not okay for others to defend his right to an opinion. Screams of hypocrisy. I think you were being a bully and God knows a bully hates to be stood up to. Remember the NHC is almost always very conservative and rightfully so. But they are not always right and Scott may end up being right. If a newbie comes on and is confused by what Scott is projecting they need only read down to see it countered strongly. This is a science blog, but in regards to tropical development an opinion is allowed because this is a science that is in flux when we're talking about the potential development of these systems. Things often don't go the way "those in the know" think.


Lol. Wow. This is unreal.

Anyway, moving on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh the drama....

Thought I'd peek in and check up on 97L.....looks pretty, but looks can be deceiving. I don't think they will upgrade to a TD tonight.... Bring on the cool front - that's all I can say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All dressed in white and nowhere to go ...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 882. VR46L:


Now hush .. but did ya see the GFS vertical shear forecast ....


Not that I remember..where would I look
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 859. PalmBeachWeather:
And gals... 2 more months and I will not have a day job, or night job...Retiring............YES!!!


Me too! Congrats to you!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 874. weathermanwannabe:


Used to go there all the time for lunch when I worked there for two years;
Very cool... I stayed at this hotel right on the water, walk out the room and you were on the boardwalk of the hotel... looking at shrimp boats... Forget the name... Very rustic but nice
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DMIN is beginning to take a toll on 97L lol. good bye
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 856. congaline:
Tropical storm Karen by 5 pm.?


I'd say td perhaps
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing like the kiddies playing tag while we have a storm developing near the GOM....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 872. reedzone:
Is recon still in 97L?


Yes

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting 870. StormTrackerScott:


Maybe you should post this to the ones that are on here lying. Come Keeper! Funny you quote me but you don't post this to some of these other bloggers on here.
nothing to do with ya bro but keeping it going is helping no one and soon it looks like chat room time maybe go over there and smack talk each other
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
882. VR46L
Quoting 854. StormPro:
Take it to email guys, we have a possible future storm to discuss (secretly holds onto his prognostication of the yucatan and dry air killing the tropical entity)


Now hush .. but did ya see the GFS vertical shear forecast ....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 860. MississippiWx:


Yeah, when you find that post, come back at me. I made no such statement. I even looked at that blog again this morning.


Just as I made no such statement that this would be a cat 3 or higher. So instead of lying people lets find the this post if not then leave me alone as I never said that. Scott is just coming on here spreading lies.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is what I like to refer to.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER
THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE.

/argument
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 868. nrtiwlnvragn:


It is a subjective decision by the Hurricane Specialist on duty, my opinion at this time would be no, not yet. Now watch a renumber right after I post.......


I know what you mean. All we can do is wait and see how they feel about the data but it is sketchy for classification IMO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15826
nice... PalmBeachWeather
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
would be kinda surprise if it gets to a TD. it really looks bad. outflow is beautiful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 871. LargoFl:
ahhh great and enjoy, i did that and it feels wonderful lol
Can't wait Largo.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 846. PalmBeachWeather:
If you are still going to be in the area... Stop into a place called "Boss Oyster" a great dive with great oysters... Just a thought


Used to go there all the time for lunch when I worked there for two years;
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 831. MississippiWx:


Lol. Never fails. The blog continuously "takes up" for Scott like he's being bullied. When he makes insane predictions and crazy statements, people are going to correct him/bash him. It's not surprising really. And who is trying to be divisive? A debate I was having with Scott turned into him name-calling and being a child with everyone else nosing their way into the argument.

This is a science blog. Not an opinion blog. When you post things on a science blog, you better have proof to back up your claims when asked or questioned about them. It's no different than AGW arguments.


Why do you assume I meant you when I said some here are intentionally divisive? I didn't but you apparently inferred it out of defensiveness. And it's okay for a group to jump on Scott but not okay for others to defend his right to an opinion. Screams of hypocrisy. I think you were being a bully and God knows a bully hates to be stood up to. Remember the NHC is almost always very conservative and rightfully so. But they are not always right and Scott may end up being right. If a newbie comes on and is confused by what Scott is projecting they need only read down to see it countered strongly. This is a science blog, but in regards to tropical development an opinion is allowed because this is a science that is in flux when we're talking about the potential development of these systems. Things often don't go the way "those in the know" think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is recon still in 97L?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
Quoting 859. PalmBeachWeather:
And gals... 2 more moths and I will not have a day job, or night job...Retiring............YES!!!
ahhh great and enjoy, i did that and it feels wonderful lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 843. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with a poss dev. system out there we should chill out a little maybe and let the NHC do there job and get the right info out there for people instead


Maybe you should post this to the ones that are on here lying. Come Keeper! Funny you quote me but you don't post this to some of these other bloggers on here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a science blog. Not an opinion blog. ?? LOL


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 849. kmanislander:


They dont classify on possibilities though do they ?. The winds out there are next to nothing. The strongest seen so far are well removed from that so called possible center and were probably found in a thunderstorm cell.

Not persuaded myself.


It is a subjective decision by the Hurricane Specialist on duty, my opinion at this time would be no, not yet. Now watch a renumber right after I post.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On a related note, those rainbow loops are the purtiest to look at but not always the best representation of what the potential banding features are closer to the surface; I have been in many storms (including t-storms) in the Big Bend region where the rainbow loops show a band over my house or on the coast but the it is actually pretty dry on the ground......Doppler radar is the best indicator of bands and circulation characteristics if the storm is within range of a station.

At present with this system, it's a good idea to keep a close eye on(other that the most accurate on the ground Aircraft recon reports)the water wapor loop (Link) which gives you a nice picture of the upper level dry air mixing in towards the core and the visible loop (Link) to try to get a peek at the lower level circulations; particularly over the next several hours as the setting sun give us that 3-D look .

You can clearly see the current plume of dry air mixing in but the system is going to try to mix it back out over the next 12 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very disorganized structure from 97L. Huge pressure gradient as usual.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 916 - 866

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
73 °F
Mostly Cloudy