97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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actually thunderstorms near the center best invest of the yr
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965. IKE

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Yep "Whole lotta love"
And What Is and What Should Never Be.
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Quoting 957. yoboi:



what do you think the plane is spraying in the clouds????;)
"Bud Light"
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cancun radar not seeing much of anything..........
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Quoting 933. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where are you getting that enhancement for the first image from? I use this site but the ones there don't seem to match the ones you've posted here.
Here. Link Remember, you have to click the color enhancement tab, then click view satellite to get the enhanced images.
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Quoting 957. yoboi:



what do you think the plane is spraying in the clouds????;)



Wind....haha
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Quoting 956. IKE:
Best looking "invest" in the ATL in a while. Maybe all season.
Yep "Whole lotta love"
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Quoting 849. kmanislander:


They dont classify on possibilities though do they ?. The winds out there are next to nothing. The strongest seen so far are well removed from that so called possible center and were probably found in a thunderstorm cell.

Not persuaded myself.

Needs a stronger circulation, better defined center. Yeah. Just an area of low pressure right now. Hasn't really got a heat engine going that has possibility of intensifying. Needs more organization then we can talk about intensification.
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Quoting 957. yoboi:



what do you think the plane is spraying in the clouds????;)
LMAO! :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
957. yoboi
Quoting 912. MississippiWx:
This is a mess. Still could technically be classified...barely.




what do you think the plane is spraying in the clouds????;)
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956. IKE
Best looking "invest" in the ATL in a while. Maybe all season.
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fim9 model is bringing it west of N.O. on the new run
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Quoting 917. LargoFl:
now 4 models have it going to north florida.....


yep they are trending more towards the west cost of FL
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Quoting 943. xcool:
AL 97 2013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB


Looks like great coordinates and matches up with the surface obs.
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Pressure continuing to drop..



29.75 in, winds steady at 29 kts.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Infrared:



Convective Diagnostic:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
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Quoting 894. MississippiWx:


Lol. Wow. This is unreal.

Anyway, moving on.


MississippiWx you well know I appreciate all the sound study and scientific feedback you give this blog in your projections and observations. You obviously have put a lot of time and effort into the study. Your one of the better ones here breaking down the minutia of the science. Scott's projection, while being on the very high side of possibilities, is not out of the question. Surely this could be a 55-60mph TS by this time tomorrow. I don't think it will. But it could. We see many crazy projections here from the ridiculously downcasted to wishcasted and I rarely see you debate them as vigorously as you do Scott's. I don't think your a bully, I just think he's your lightening rod for whatever reason. And you know how I love to play devil's advocate. So if this ends up a 65mph TS tomorrow would you be absolutely shocked?
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Quoting 940. FEMAroadwarrior:
Anyone sitting in the New Orleans area right now? Headed there this weekend and wondering what the local mets are saying as to expected conditions


40-50% chance of rain....Friday and Saturday
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946. FOREX
Quoting 920. hurricanes2018:
HURRICANE!!


nah
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
Quoting 924. VR46L:


Aye but the shear is pretty brutal to a Little developing TS .


True. We can only hope it gets shredded. And thanks VR
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Anyone care to explain why this guy keeps posting Recon that isnt even remotely related to the storm? 
Quoting 884. daddyjames:


Yes


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943. xcool
AL 97 2013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB
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942. VR46L
Quoting 923. LargoFl:
what time does the 18z gfs begin??

About an hour and 20 min
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Quoting 937. nrtiwlnvragn:


Average Start Time 20:47:02


Link
ok TY
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Anyone sitting in the New Orleans area right now? Headed there this weekend and wondering what the local mets are saying as to expected conditions
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Quoting 915. VR46L:
PBW and FMG congratulations to ya both ! Hope I will still see you round from time to time after retirement
More than ever... I will still be a pest
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Quoting 912. MississippiWx:
This is a mess. Still could technically be classified...barely.



Going for a third look in the same place.
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Quoting 923. LargoFl:
what time does the 18z gfs begin??


Average Start Time 20:47:02


Link
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Quoting 888. PalmBeachWeather:
Very cool... I stayed at this hotel right on the water, walk out the room and you were on the boardwalk of the hotel... looking at shrimp boats... Forget the name... Very rustic but nice


Might have been the Gibson Inn......I took the Wife and Kid there for lunch last long-weekend in September. Nothing like fresh seafood and good oysters in the "R" months. BTW, Apallachee Bay produces some of the best oysters (sweet and fat) that I have ever had anywhere (including the Boston area).......Very lucky to have them close to home with no shipping delay involved....From the boats to the plate.

Keeping it on a tropical note, the entire Big Bend coastal region from Apalachicola to St. Marks is very vulnerable to storm surge. Our biggest hits (wiht lots of coastal property damage and flooding) have come from land falling hurricanes further West in the Florida Panhandle because of their trajectory past us and the east-loaded side of a storm.

Flooding will be an issue with this one given the size if it makes landfall anywhere from Apalachicola to the Panhandle but I am hoping that it will remain weak so that storm surge will not be an issue.
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Very dynamic HWRF model:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Quoting 910. hydrus:

Where are you getting that enhancement for the first image from? I use this site but the ones there don't seem to match the ones you've posted here.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32501
Quoting 921. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Wow! Only a cat 1, ;) Love the hwrf.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 919. stormhawg:


Since I just moved to Cape San Blas, that would be where I would put my money... ;P
lol time to check the homeowners policy lol...stay safe up there.
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This system will be just like every other system in 2013. Struggle to develop a solid core and eventually get torn apart. Will have minimal impacts which is the theme of 2013.
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Quoting 855. IKE:

Well........
"Dazed and Confused"
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Quoting 897. PalmBeachWeather:
We earned it gal


We sure did! :)
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Crusin the Coast begins this weekend on the MS Gulf Coast. Not a good weekend for the classic cars to show up. And they just cleared all the sand from the road and bays so we would look pretty.....
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Quoting 909. reedzone:


Thanks, since there is a circulation, I believe we will see classification for TD12, but Karen may wait till tomorrow. Guess we will find out eventually.


Doesn't look as if it will do anything too fast, given the broad llc. And forecast sheer/dry air will pose problems. In agreement with Dr. JM. Would be surprised if this gets named . . .
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924. VR46L
Quoting 914. StormPro:


Poop, that has it coming towards me


Aye but the shear is pretty brutal to a Little developing TS .
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what time does the 18z gfs begin??
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922. HCW
IMPACTWX

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Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
HURRICANE!!
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Quoting 901. LargoFl:
well IF it goes into the panhandle or big bend..whats there you ask?....


Since I just moved to Cape San Blas, that would be where I would put my money... ;P
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Quoting 902. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You mean small gradient, right? A huge gradient would mean the pressure drops very quickly near the center.


Pfftt I might.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24456
now 4 models have it going to north florida.....
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Quoting 876. bigwes6844:
would be kinda surprise if it gets to a TD. it really looks bad. outflow is beautiful.


It looks to be creating a better environment for a run later though... Pushin' a lot of moisture out into that dry area.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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