97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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1016. icmoore
Quoting 967. ricderr:
tampa is still waiting for their cat 5.....come on kr.....tamps loves ya


um no we don't :)
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1015. bwi
19.2n 85.5w

Just my stupid opinion of where a true low level center is likely to form over the next couple hours.
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1014. LargoFl
Quoting 1004. bigwes6844:
ensembles finally updated
all over the place too..they need something to lock onto
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1013. Torito
Quoting 1003. MississippiWx:
Certainly an...interesting flight pattern. Lol.



They missed. xD
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finally new models bby!
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Quoting 1003. MississippiWx:
Certainly an...interesting flight pattern. Lol.



Really scratching around out there by the looks of things
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Quoting 1003. MississippiWx:
Certainly an...interesting flight pattern. Lol.



They haven't really penetrated the area of deeper winds either. Seems to me they're searching for a LLC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
1009. LargoFl
Quoting 999. GatorWX:


The first feeder bands from our system.... ;)

yeah im guessing we could get some outer rains from this when it passes by.
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1008. GatorWX
Quoting 1003. MississippiWx:
Certainly an...interesting flight pattern. Lol.



Why do you suppose they're sampling so much down south?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 1003. MississippiWx:
Certainly an...interesting flight pattern. Lol.



maybe it really is Bud Light ;)
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1006. SLU
This is NOT a tropical cyclone.

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Quoting 996. IKE:

lol.
"Nobodys Fault but Mine"
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ensembles finally updated
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Certainly an...interesting flight pattern. Lol.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1002. GatorWX
see ya, thanks
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 991. IKE:
985 post........ Go take a walk or mow the grass.
VERY FUNNY!!
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1000. LargoFl
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Quoting 993. LargoFl:


The first feeder bands from our system.... ;)

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 995. PalmBeachWeather:
IKE... I suggested only last night that he clean the toilet... Not sure if he did or not.
I did, thanks for that tip. Might go mow the lawn and come back in time to see this go poof with dmin, thanks guys for all the great tips.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 992. nfloridandr:
1007.5 buoy 42056
Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Date: Wed, 02 Oct 2013 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (160°) at 29.1 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (105°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.75 in and falling
Air Temperature: 76.6 F
Dew Point: 76.5 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F

Link
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996. IKE

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
IKE... I suggested only last night that he clean the toilet... Not sure if he did or not.
lol.
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Quoting 991. IKE:
985 post........ Go take a walk or mow the grass
IKE... I suggested only last night that he clean the toilet... Not sure if he did or not.
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Decreasing shear... heading toward lovely warm SST's.. Should be an eventful few days.... :)
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1007.5 buoy 42056
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991. IKE
985 post........ Go take a walk or mow the grass.
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Quoting 956. IKE:
Best looking "invest" in the ATL in a while. Maybe all season.


Agreed 100%.
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Quoting 973. MississippiWx:
Lol. To the untrained eye, one might would think...


Like ex-Dorian. :)

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tropical storm in 48 hours!!! NO HURRICANE!!!
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986. SLU
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HAHAHA just as I have said, this WILL NOT survive DMIN. POOF IT GOES
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Good thing I have one eye left...But I still had to squint
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Quoting 964. PalmBeachWeather:
"Bud Light"
LMAO
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Quoting 973. MississippiWx:
Lol. To the untrained eye, one might would think...



Wow... I see what ur saying.. very interesting system.
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Quoting 968. JrWeathermanFL:
"This storm is a mess"
"This storm is about to be classified"

Thank you for clearing this up :P


Just because it's a mess doesn't mean it can't be classified. Lol. The guts of the storm are pretty ugly.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting 978. MAweatherboy1:
Can it survive DMIN? That is the big question I think. We have seen DMIN wipe out so many storms and invests this year. This could end up being just another added to the list.



More than likely will.


Not completely gone, but will be the next update.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
979. bwi
Conditions at 42056 as of
(2:50 pm CDT)
1950 GMT on 10/02/2013:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 8.5 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 105 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.08 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 31.1 kts
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Can it survive DMIN? That is the big question I think. We have seen DMIN wipe out so many storms and invests this year. This could end up being just another added to the list.

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Quoting 957. yoboi:



what do you think the plane is spraying in the clouds????;)

2013 season gremlin food??
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
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Quoting 969. weathermanwannabe:
If you believe or trust CIMSS, the latest 24 shear tendancy outlook is for increasing sheer right along the Yucatan Channel area and a little decrease in the Central Gulf: Link

Little bit of a gauntlet there for 97L in the short term if this forecast verifies; threading the needle through the Yucatan Channel is not a cakewalk at the moment.
I like the layout, but it is not very good with cyclones.
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This looks so nice from far away.

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Lol. To the untrained eye, one might would think...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
972. 7544
looks like it a ts on at this hour .
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Quoting 965. IKE:

And What Is and What Should Never Be.
Goes good with "Custard Pie"
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Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
If you believe or trust CIMSS, the latest 24 shear tendancy outlook is for increasing sheer right along the Yucatan Channel area and a little decrease in the Central Gulf: Link

Little bit of a gauntlet there for 97L in the short term if this tendency verifies; threading the needle through the Yucatan Channel is not a cakewalk at the moment.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9329
"This storm is a mess"
"This storm is about to be classified"

Thank you for clearing this up :P
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tampa is still waiting for their cat 5.....come on kr.....tamps loves ya
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actually thunderstorms near the center best invest of the yr
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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