97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

Share this Blog
63
+

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1066 - 1016

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Not impressed at all, no winds really. And DMIN is about to rip whatever it accomplished apart.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1059. PalmBeachWeather:
Happy Happy Happy


side note...my daughter rides horses and in the Halloween Show she will be dressed up as Si and her horse will be Phil.... do you know how hard it is right now to find a grey beard? lol There will be a lot of Duck Dynasty trick or treaters this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1064. GatorWX
19.802 N 84.857 W

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3608
Some of you showing recon maps have a glitch. Looks like you are showing recon in the western gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1053. LargoFl:
every state has a model! nice!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lack of tchp? its cooler so that should be nullified.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1057. hurricanehanna:


thank you Si
Happy Happy Happy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1015. bwi:
19.2n 85.5w

Just my stupid opinion of where a true low level center is likely to form over the next couple hours.
No opinions are stupid bwi... Well, maybe a few... LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1050. PalmBeachWeather:
Jack


thank you Si
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1056. Drakoen
Quoting 1051. MississippiWx:


They are getting south winds to the west of there for now. Who knows. It's possible.


That's what I am seeing as well...Possible center relocation...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1031. Civicane49:
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY IS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERALL...AND THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. JERRY CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE JERRY WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO....THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
GRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL/HWRF
MODELS. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE BY 5 DAYS... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS
INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL POSITION OF JERRY HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 1457Z
AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER
NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THIS RELOCATION SUGGESTS THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 045/05. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVERALL
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ROUGHLY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 29.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 30.2N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 31.5N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 33.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 35.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 38.0N 26.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

still hanging JERRY! JERRY! JERRY! JERRY! JERRY!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1054. GetReal


IMO 97L while looking real pretty on visible images is lacking a core and CDO, and likely will not be upgraded to TC status on next NHC advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1053. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1052. GatorWX
Quoting 1047. GTstormChaserCaleb:
How does 85.0 West and 20.0 North sound?


good.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3608
Quoting 1047. GTstormChaserCaleb:
How does 85.0 West and 20.0 North sound?


They are getting south winds to the west of there for now. Who knows. It's possible.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting 1032. Drakoen:


...It...is...a...fact...
Jack
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1049. Drakoen
Quoting 1044. MississippiWx:


...I...didn't...say...it...wasn't...


...Ok... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1048. LargoFl
Quoting 1042. PalmBeachWeather:
Tastes just like chicken
tell Aussie to get OVER here and get his Emu lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How does 85.0 West and 20.0 North sound?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8579
Quoting 1021. Drakoen:
The system is deepening as we speak


Probably why they are finding winds where they didnt find any winds at that location 2 hours ago. Looks like an established system is forming as they are exploring it. Pretty cool.. I suspect we may get a special statement at 6 pm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1045. hydrus
Quoting 1011. kmanislander:


Really scratching around out there by the looks of things
Overall, this system looks rather impressive. I believe there are a couple of small upper level features that have kept 97L from organizing quickly other than dry air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1032. Drakoen:


...It...is...a...fact...


...I...didn't...say...it...wasn't...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting 787. CybrTeddy:


TCHP isn't a terrible factor against 97L, given that 97L isn't likely to be stationary. It's the abundance of dry air and shear that'll hurt it.

SHIPS and LGEM are very much against this becoming a serious threat.
V (KT) LAND 30 34 32 39 44 49 56 55 59 39 30 28 28
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 31 36 38 42 45 46 46 34 29 28 28
The lack of TCHP certainly won't be the only factor that retards 97L's development, but I disagree that the relative lack of TCHP isn't going to be a big deal; the fact is, all other things being equal, every storm from the smallest depression to a monster Cat5 feels the drain of less energetic waters, and there's no reason to think 97L will be an exception. There's little doubt that shear and dry air will collude with the cooler waters ahead to put the damper on this system. Yeah, it could become a hurricane before landfall--stranger things have happened--but more than likely it won't amount to much beyond heavy rains in some locations...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1030. LargoFl:
IN florida..you walk out the door and you Never know what you will see..this was captured in pinellas park..
Tastes just like chicken
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1041. Torito
my opinion is that the LLC in fact is right here. (judging the wind directions around there.

if this is in fact the system 97l, anyways.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1024. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We're typing, Drak. Get with it. :)
I speak when I type... Just a bit of useless trivia...One of my favorite blues guys...BB KING... He can not play the guitar and sing at the same time..Really. Watch him. It's just like me ... Watch "Duck Dynasty" and cook at the same time...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1038. Drakoen
One of two things could happen. The system could maintain its current llc or regroup with the mid level center that is farther off to the northeast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1033. GTstormChaserCaleb:
They need to go northeast into the main convection, that llc has probably opened up. A new one is likely forming closer to the main convection. When these systems are in the developing stages they centers tend jump around a lot.
which has been the problem all year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1029. SuperStorm093:
RECON still with nothing impressive, looks are VERY VERY deceiving HERE!!!!!!!!


Bust ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1035. IKE

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
"Nobodys Fault but Mine"
With No Quarter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1034. GatorWX


1007.4mb pressure at 19.802 N 84.857 W about 30, 40 mins ago
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3608
Quoting 1025. Tropicsweatherpr:


But recon hasn't found lower pressures.
They need to go northeast into the main convection, that llc has probably opened up. A new one is likely forming closer to the main convection. When these systems are in the developing stages they centers tend jump around a lot.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8579
1032. Drakoen
Quoting 1026. MississippiWx:


One would think so...Really really really want the HH to investigate further north and east.


...It...is...a...fact...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY IS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERALL...AND THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. JERRY CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE JERRY WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO....THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
GRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL/HWRF
MODELS. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE BY 5 DAYS... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS
INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL POSITION OF JERRY HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 1457Z
AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER
NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THIS RELOCATION SUGGESTS THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 045/05. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVERALL
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ROUGHLY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 29.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 30.2N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 31.5N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 33.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 35.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 38.0N 26.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1030. LargoFl
IN florida..you walk out the door and you Never know what you will see..this was captured in pinellas park..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RECON still with nothing impressive, looks are VERY VERY deceiving HERE!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013

...JERRY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 42.6W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 1010. CybrTeddy:


They haven't really penetrated the area of deeper winds either. Seems to me they're searching for a LLC.
Based on the initialization of the models and where ATCF is tracking the center it appears that the llc is on the sw tip of the main convection and that it's likely in the process of dissolving and a new one forming closer to the main convection based on the avn satellite imagery.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8579
Quoting 1021. Drakoen:
The system is deepening as we speak


One would think so...Really really really want the HH to investigate further north and east.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting 1021. Drakoen:
The system is deepening as we speak


But recon hasn't found lower pressures.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14412
Quoting 1021. Drakoen:
The system is deepening as we speak

We're typing, Drak. Get with it. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1008. GatorWX:


Why do you suppose they're sampling so much down south?


Probably sampling the area where the original surface low was this morning. They will go north now I would think.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1022. GatorWX
Quoting 1009. LargoFl:
yeah im guessing we could get some outer rains from this when it passes by.


At the least. I'm surprised the lack of precip that gfs is showing.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3608
1021. Drakoen
The system is deepening as we speak
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1020. LargoFl
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SWEETWATER...WESTCHESTER...
SOUTH MIAMI...KENDALL...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1019. Torito
Quoting 1008. GatorWX:


Why do you suppose they're sampling so much down south?


! They see something that none of us sees..... xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1018. bwi
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
B-U-S-T
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1016. icmoore
Quoting 967. ricderr:
tampa is still waiting for their cat 5.....come on kr.....tamps loves ya


um no we don't :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1066 - 1016

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
46 °F
Partly Cloudy