97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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2966. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
2965. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
Re: 2960

No one here wants people to die. We are weather fanatics who love tracking storms...not watch people's "livelihoods" destroyed.

Jeez. Add some fiber to your diet.
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Quoting 2951. GatorWX:


:) Will be on the up...!



It's been awhile, eh??


If the winds stay down and the swell comes up, it will be sweet.
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Quoting 2915. GatorWX:
Not the most impressive, yet...



Degrading west side. It's moving wnw-nw, moisture seems to be lagging behind..


It we squeak by with a TS, min Cat 1 system, we can be fortunate for dry air. I mentioned last night that dry air, alone, may not destroy a developing system, but it can certainly hinder it, as we saw with Chantal and Dorian earlier this season. Even if it has a solid, fairly large core with intense convection, dry air is still going to be infiltrated and disruptive to the complete maturing, deepening process. Karen can fight it off, generating its own moisture field, but it still has to deal with infiltration. And, sometimes, these things seem to have a mind of their own, despite our best thoughts, and despite what would appear to be obvious inhibitors or conducive. We wait, we watch, we see. :)

And, still, for all the downcasters out there, even a weak TS can be very deadly, so please garner your comments carefully. TIA.
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2960. mopapa
Quoting 2930. UpperLevelLOL:
Kinda disturbing how excited people here are about the prospect of people's lives and livelihoods being in danger


Totally agree.
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2959. ncstorm
Quoting 2956. nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC may need to recall their spokesman from furlough

National Hurricane Center Spokesman on Furlough, Forecasting Operations Normal During Shutdown

Excerpt:

A message on Public Affairs officer Dennis Feltgen's voice mail says, "I am currently out of the office on furlough due to the shutdown of U.S. government operations."


wow..its funny but its not funny..
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2958. Patrap
Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031304
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC may need to recall their spokesman from furlough

National Hurricane Center Spokesman on Furlough, Forecasting Operations Normal During Shutdown

Excerpt:

A message on Public Affairs officer Dennis Feltgen's voice mail says, "I am currently out of the office on furlough due to the shutdown of U.S. government operations."
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2955. JNTenne
Cancun looking north easterly (or for our Westcoast bloggers: northwest-early!)
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2953. Gearsts
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE
INTENSIFY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE
STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.
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2952. ncstorm
BUT THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.
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2951. GatorWX
Quoting 2946. Sfloridacat5:
The NHC has Karen becoming a hurricane, but weakens her to a Tropical Storm before landfall.


:) Will be on the up...!



It's been awhile, eh??

***Buoy in east central gulf btw...
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386

TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOUND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 50 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE
INTENSIFY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE
STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/11 GIVEN THE RECENT
FORMATION OF THE CENTER. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEST/EAST
SPREAD IN THE TRACKS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS FARTHEST EAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH LANDFALL. NOTE THAT A TRACK FARTHER
EAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM...WHILE KAREN WOULD
LIKELY BE WEAKER IF IT TAKES A TRACK FARTHER WEST.

GIVEN THE FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1300Z 22.0N 87.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 88.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.4N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 28.3N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 31.0N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 34.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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2949. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT

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2947. Patrap
From 70° at 43 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 49.4 mph)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
The NHC has Karen becoming a hurricane, but weakens her to a Tropical Storm before landfall.
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Quoting 2931. hericane96:


Nice!
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2944. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
I am thankful that this did not happen 15-30 days ago when Gulf temps were a little warmer and sheer conditions were more favorable.
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2942. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
2941. Gearsts
Dry air is doing his job well.
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2940. Skyepony (Mod)
Vortex message..



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 12:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 12:32:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°59'N 87°34'W (21.9833N 87.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 75 miles (120 km) to the NW (321°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the ESE (104°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 180° at 35kts (From the S at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the ESE (103°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 271m (889ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 271m (889ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) which was observed 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NW (312°) from the flight level center at 12:40:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
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2939. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
2938. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
2937. GatorWX
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.0N 88.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
2936. KORBIN
What do you guys feel the chances that there could be a center relocation under the deep convection?
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 031304
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
The current "degrading" you're seeing is most likely the result of land interaction (it looked like the center may have touched the coast per the recon based on a set heading a few hours ago). Also cannot rule out slight dry air. Gulf isn't exactly favorable for rapid intensification.
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2932. Gearsts
Center
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Kinda disturbing how excited people here are about the prospect of people's lives and livelihoods being in danger
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2929. HCW
First Cone

Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN


Sounds like NHC wants to take the initial cone from La to the Florida Panhandle.
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Quoting 2900. wunderkidcayman:


We if this isn't well defined well I don't know what is



The winds look good, but it needs to wrap around the convection if it is going to intensify. it will be interesting to see what the next 12-24 hours do for it as it moves away from the Peninsula.
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The models did not have it going up to 60MPH and it is at 60MPH now
Quoting 2920. Xyrus2000:
Karen may make Cat 1 by landfall, but that's about it. Neither the models nor the conditions currently seem to indicate it will be anything stronger than that.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
Quoting 2915. GatorWX:
Not the most impressive, yet...



Degrading west side. It's moving wnw-nw, moisture seems to be lagging behind..


Correct. Karen doesn't have the perfect environment. This should keep her from intensifying too rapidly.
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2924. 7544
Quoting 2906. BrandiQ:
Im still a little worried about this storm... no way of it coming to center or south fl right?


karen may not but the convection may just get blown off and that could head east anyone think that could happen as you can see the ball mof convection is nosing to the east tia
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Here is the link to the special advisory rather than posting the whole thing: Link

Welcome to an above-average Atlantic season in spite of the lull in September and the blown pre-season forecast as to majors and numbers.
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2922. Gearsts
Quoting 2910. wunderkidcayman:
Well looking at this and the length of the GOM I would not be surprised if this become a hurricane and become the strongest one yet for the season

With the center exposed? Nah
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Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
Karen may make Cat 1 by landfall, but that's about it. Neither the models nor the conditions currently seem to indicate it will be anything stronger than that.
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TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
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2918. Torito
Quoting 2910. wunderkidcayman:
Well looking at this and the length of the GOM I would not be surprised if this become a hurricane and become the strongest one yet for the season



woAH. is that really karen? i knew it was undergoing RI.....


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Quoting 2827. FunnelVortex:


StormTrackerScott may have been right in his call of this becoming a pretty nice hurricane.



I'm sure that MsWx will come up with a number of reasons that Scott was wrong with his predictions yesterday...LOL

Probably another day of tag between them coming up!
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A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.