97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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There doesn't appear to be any shear present in WV loops to cause the CDO "looking" feature to be off the center.
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Where that eye-like feature randomly came up, and now there's a bust of convection there??
ehhh
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1214. Torito
TS FORCE WINDS!


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Quoting 1194. mfcmom:
So for novices how do you get to the models. Live in Panama City Beach and have a bunch of adopted special needs kids, need to prep a little earlier than most. Thanks in advance.


Two easy ways, for me, are to use tropicaltidbits.com, or to use the wundermap on this site. On the wundermap there's a bunch of map layer choices-choose tropical & model layers. You can also choose which model to run. Also can choose time frame, etc. Lots of info in there, and really user friendly.
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1212. GatorWX
Approaching dmin soon. Relentless today huh??

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
I think the COC has developed back at 20N 85W personally.
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1210. GatorWX
Quoting 1196. GetReal:


Interesting new blow up of convection, probably very near, or just to the east of the LLC. 97L may finally develop that core and CDO. Outflow looks great in all directions, dare I say conditions may be ripe for RI overnight before clipping the NE Yucatan.


shhhhhhh! You aren't allowed to speak of such things..
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1209. RickWPB
Quoting mfcmom:
So for novices how do you get to the models. Live in Panama City Beach and have a bunch of adopted special needs kids, need to prep a little earlier than most. Thanks in advance.


Mfcmom, A good link for models and just about everything else you might want to look at is here:

Mike's Weather Page
Link
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1208. bwi
Hopefully, this the HH data will help the 0z models get set up and we'll get a better idea tomorrow what to expect in the gulf.
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Remember folks the nam is great for with winter not tropics. Although snow is likely there. 2 ft is insane and unlikely to occur. Might've had a major feed back this run.
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we need to watch winter storm atlas!!
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1204. GetReal
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Quoting 1181. daddyjames:


You gotta like the rainbow.


Beautiful xD
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Quoting 1196. GetReal:


Interesting new blow up of convection, probably very near, or just to the east of the LLC. 97L may finally develop that core and CDO. Outflow looks great in all directions, dare I say conditions may be ripe for RI overnight before clipping the NE Yucatan.

Looks like 97l is taking the channel hwy. to get to the gom.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
This



Gives You This


Impressive outflow developing over the system thanks to the ULAC
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Quoting 1182. hydrus:
A more thorough investigation of this system this time out may save on gas and time later. After all, we are a government that currently is closed until further notice...


Well, they are saving on dropsondes. I have not seen even one released.
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Quoting 1191. Articuno:

That is absolutely a beautiful image, if you haven't noticed there is a rainbow! Perhaps that's a sign of hope?


Lol yeah
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Quoting 1183. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NAM has went absolutely friggin' insane.





Well, if that comes even close to happening then Atlas has definitely lived up to his name
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Quoting 1174. Articuno:

Hopefully the rain your about to get is more then expected and gives many needed rain. :)


I hope so! October is normally our wettest month :-)
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1196. GetReal


Interesting new blow up of convection, probably very near, or just to the east of the LLC. 97L may finally develop that core and CDO. Outflow looks great in all directions, dare I say conditions may be ripe for RI overnight before clipping the NE Yucatan.
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Seems kind of obvious to me. We have a TD/TS with a center around 20/85. Not the tightest neatest center in the world, but pretty typical for a TD. Said center is moving NW..it's going to miss land and move into the Gulf, where strengthening should continue for awhile, maybe reaching hurricane force before falling back towards mid-high TS strength as it makes landfall. jmo
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1194. mfcmom
So for novices how do you get to the models. Live in Panama City Beach and have a bunch of adopted special needs kids, need to prep a little earlier than most. Thanks in advance.
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up to 12 inches of snow!!! wow!!
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Quoting 1183. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NAM has went absolutely friggin' insane.


That's the same model that predicted 80" from that blizzard back in December.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
Quoting 1166. CaribBoy:


Passing showers, but still great given the HUGE LACK OF RAIN :-)


That is absolutely a beautiful image, if you haven't noticed there is a rainbow! Perhaps that's a sign of hope?
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1190. Torito
Quoting 1183. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NAM has went absolutely friggin' insane.




LOL is that 40" of snow I see on there????

Nada chance.
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1189. sar2401
Quoting Torito:
the plane seems to be finally flying towards the COC...


I have seen so many supposed "COC's" that I literally have no idea exactly how anyone can tell if they are flying through the "right" one. The criteria seems to be that, if it doesn't show at least a strong TS, it's not the "right" one.
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Quoting 1183. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NAM has went absolutely friggin' insane.



Get back to your room young NAM!
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Quoting 1158. washingtonian115:
After six years it looks like what will become Karen is finally back for revenge.Lol.


LOL!
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1186. GatorWX
SSE @ 31 kts, holding for a few hrs now.
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1185. bwi
Sustained 30kt winds at the buoy for a couple hours now.
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Quoting 1140. TheDawnAwakening:
The S shape pattern is indicative of dying wind shear and improving significant outflow channels developing equator ward and poleward. Low level spiral banding is potentially developing as well, all indications are that we are a go for development and intensification. Moistening environment around 97L will keep the dry air from interfering during DMIN.


Good observation. It's not uncommon for an unorganized or organizing system to relocate a center. As it slowly consolidates and gets vertical, it may lean into the heaviest moisture field and get a bit more poleward.

Current motion, however, does continue to support a northwest motion. I'm thinking we'll see the coc present itself a tad further north and east and it will miss the peninsula, maybe threading the channel, an optimum scenario for a growing system.
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The NAM has went absolutely friggin' insane.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31336
1182. hydrus
Quoting 1167. kmanislander:
I will say this though, that HH crew are pulling out the stops to try and pin this down. If it is not classified on this mission no one can say they didnt give it a good run
A more thorough investigation of this system this time out may save on gas and time later. After all, we are a government that currently is closed until further notice...
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Quoting 1166. CaribBoy:


Passing showers, but still great given the HUGE LACK OF RAIN :-)



You gotta like the rainbow.
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Quoting 1169. Torito:
the plane seems to be finally flying towards the COC...


Good. :P
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1179. IKE

Quoting Abacosurf:
Sure looks impressive!
Nice SSE wind on the buoy too.

Gusts to near 40 knots.
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Ya know, Scott could be right what he said earlier which some were blasting him for it. He did see something going on where the llc is taking place ontop the mlc.
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1177. GatorWX
19.802 N 84.857 W




Pretty sure it's not too far off to the west of this buoy. Pretty sure...
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
Quoting 1165. utilastormwatch:


I am looking at the Visible Floater and there appears to be some small tight circulation at 18.4W 85.3W.

Or am I a certifiable Wishcaster?

I love that name. There should be a Diploma issued once certified.


Personally I think this is still very broad and that a tight center may well not be found on this mission. Time will tell.
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1175. bwi
Buoy at 19.802 N 84.857 W (19°48'6" N 84°51'24" W)

Conditions at 42056 as of
(3:50 pm CDT)
2050 GMT on 10/02/2013:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 16.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.6 m
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 103 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1007.4 mb
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.5 mb ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.0 °C
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 29.0 °C
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 25.9 °C
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 28.4 °C
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 17 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 18 m/s
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Quoting 1168. CaribBoy:


Thanks!! But that placer is too dry lol, I want more rain XD

Hopefully the rain your about to get is more then expected and gives many needed rain. :)
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1173. sar2401
Quoting VR46L:



Ah, should have remembered the 999 vs 998 discussion for last night. I apologize. However, I have zero confidence that this will ever be a 990 mb hurricane. I will be happy if we can four or five inches of rain though.
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1172. Drakoen
Quoting 1167. kmanislander:
I will say this though, that HH crew are pulling out the stops to try and pin this down. If it is not classified on this mission no one can say they didnt give it a good run


True. They are probably doing this even more thoroughly than usual as this is a threat to the United States.
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With a new possible COC reformation, I think 97L or possible Karen could get closer to the west coast of Florida.
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Quoting 1163. IKE:
Blow up right near the COC....


Sure looks impressive!
Nice SSE wind on the buoy too.

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1169. Torito
the plane seems to be finally flying towards the COC...

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Quoting 1164. Articuno:

You live in such a beautiful place. Lucky.


Thanks!! But that place is too dry lol, I want more rain XD
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I will say this though, that HH crew are pulling out the stops to try and pin this down. If it is not classified on this mission no one can say they didnt give it a good run
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Quoting 1161. Tropicsweatherpr:


Yeah,raining there.


Passing showers, but still great given the HUGE LACK OF RAIN :-)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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