97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1269. MississippiWx:


Oh boy. Here we go again. The criticism was not for claims of 97L being a tropical storm currently. Let's get that fact straight now.

Anyway, not debating anymore after this.

I'm with you Drew. The guy may be able to guess well enough to get some respect, but the ego that goes along with his "I'm right, you're wrong" Attitude is childish. I myself, have no respect for anyone that has that mentality.

Anyhow. She sure has organized well structurally today, though recon will need to confirm if what she has under her hood is good enough to be classified as a Tropical Storm. So far, there's not enough data to draw a conclusion besides the fact that gale force winds are taking place in the northeastern side of the system.


I do believe we will have Karen in the next 24-36 Hours, but she will be much different than her predecessors.
2007

2001

1995

1989


Though she may end up being similar in strength, this Karen will more than likely end up being the first to Impact the U.S.
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Quoting 1310. SuperStorm093:
LMAO now that is wishcasting at its finest right here folks


Lol lol lol
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Data suggests to me a 40mph storm.
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Quoting 1308. proroller:


Awesome!


And I'm very serious ;-)
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1312. mrmombq
Quoting 1277. mrmombq:
Time: 21:23:00Z
Coordinates: 20.6667N 85.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.8 mb (~ 28.84 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 269 meters (~ 883 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.8 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 122° at 40 knots (From the ESE at ~ 46.0 mph)
Air Temp: 20.9°C (~ 69.6°F)
Dew Pt: 20.9°C (~ 69.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 35 mm/hr (~ 1.38 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Is this surface wind of 65.5 mph a joke or real?
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Man I WANT my big slow moving and wet TS!!
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Quoting 1304. VAbeachhurricanes:
Calling in here first, future Karen will become a major hurricane.
LMAO now that is wishcasting at its finest right here folks
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Is this in the atlantic? Sure is developing now with great outflow and nice symmetry. Now just needs to tighten up

what ever it is sure is best this season has offered this far in terms of sat appearance.
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Quoting 1302. CaribBoy:


Yes probably the biggest among all bloggers. LOL!


Awesome!
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Quoting 1298. MississippiWx:
Recon has yet to find a well-defined center.


Wouldn't be surprised if this new blowup pushes it over the edge.
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1306. mfcmom
Thank you everyone.
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Calling in here first, future Karen will become a major hurricane.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6149
1303. LargoFl
18z GFS..this COULD turn out to be a very strong tropical storm...
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Quoting 1295. proroller:


Are you a wishcaster as well?


Yes probably the biggest among all bloggers. LOL!
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Should be interesting intensity forecast the NHC gives when they name this system very soon. Gotta figure they'll go higher than medium strength TS with conditions so conducive in the short term. Karin's got a good chance at a run to 70-80mph before conditions influence a slowdown or weakening. Guessing they'll give a top end at around 65-70mph with a 25-30% chance at a catagory one.
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GFS coming in WEAKER
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Recon has yet to find a well-defined center.
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1st winter name storm of the season


Winter Storm Atlas Forecast: Snow to Impact Montana, Idaho, Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota, Western Nebraska

Link
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Drakoen where do you think this will hit? Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Florida? And if in Florida how far east?
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting 1281. CaribBoy:


Nooooooo that will feed the wishcasters LMAO


Are you a wishcaster as well?
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1294. Thrawst
Quoting 1262. GatorWX:
Nasty!!



You can say that again! at least 3 inches fallen in coral gables.
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1293. airmet3
Quoting 1194. mfcmom:
So for novices how do you get to the models. Live in Panama City Beach and have a bunch of adopted special needs kids, need to prep a little earlier than most. Thanks in advance.


With all due respect, you are better served getting your information from the NWS (srh.noaa.gov) or your local TV mets. Let them guide you to a decision. The kids are too important to try and do this yourself.

There are many models out there and it can cause paralysis by analysis, even amongst "quasi experts".
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1291. will40
Quoting 1282. clwstmchasr:


What time is the next flight scheduled for?


got one scheduled for 11:00 pm
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1290. LargoFl
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting 1275. hurricanewatcher61:
Looks like its going right through the channel, down the middle maybe a tad east?
Always amazes me how many storms find the channel.
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1288. Patrap
RECON is on the NHC Home page, on the left n the MENU Column
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1286. GatorWX
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1285. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 21:38Z
Date: October 2, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 39

21:38:30Z 20.183N 85.733W 976.7 mb
(~ 28.84 inHg) 265 meters
(~ 869 feet) 1006.7 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 215° at 8 knots
(From the SW at ~ 9.2 mph) 23.5°C
(~ 74.3°F) 23.0°C
(~ 73.4°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 10 knots*
(~ 11.5 mph*) 1 mm/hr*
(~ 0.04 in/hr*) 8.9 knots* (~ 10.2 mph*)
111.1%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 21:29:00Z (first observation), the observation was 109 miles (175 km) to the ESE (116°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

At 21:38:30Z (last observation), the observation was 98 miles (157 km) to the SE (133°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
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The channel hwy. then anywhere from e. tex to c. Fl? Now the real watch begins for the Oct. surprise.
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1283. LargoFl
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Quoting 1243. will40:
55.6 knots (~ 64.0 mph)
Tropical Storm


Nooooooo that will feed the wishcasters LMAO
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Quoting 1268. LAbonbon:


np

can you imagine the height of the drifts?

Yes I can imagine that. Luckly it won't happen. But heck imagine if it did and in early October too? Wow it would be some storm if it did.
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What-will-be-Karen's outer bands are causing some pretty good thunderstorms in Florida.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16444
Quoting 1269. MississippiWx:


Oh boy. Here we go again. The criticism was not for claims of 97L being a tropical storm currently. Let's get that fact straight now.

Anyway, not debating anymore after this.


I wouldn't either ;)
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1277. mrmombq
Time: 21:23:00Z
Coordinates: 20.6667N 85.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.8 mb (~ 28.84 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 269 meters (~ 883 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.8 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 122° at 40 knots (From the ESE at ~ 46.0 mph)
Air Temp: 20.9°C (~ 69.6°F)
Dew Pt: 20.9°C (~ 69.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 35 mm/hr (~ 1.38 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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1276. Patrap
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Looks like its going right through the channel, down the middle maybe a tad east?
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Plenty of rain will be pumping into Florida from this system.
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1273. Torito
i think they should go north east, north of the first time they passed there, finding TS storm force winds.

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1272. LargoFl
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1271. Patrap
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Time: 21:26:00Z
Coordinates: 20.5667N 85.2W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.9 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 266 meters (~ 873 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.4 mb (~ 29.75 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 143° at 39 knots (From the SE at ~ 44.8 mph)
Air Temp: 21.3°C* (~ 70.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)
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Quoting 1266. masonsnana:


No kidding. He took a lot of guff this morning/ afternoon.


Oh boy. Here we go again. The criticism was not for claims of 97L being a tropical storm currently. Let's get that fact straight now.

Anyway, not debating anymore after this.
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Quoting 1256. RGVtropicalWx13:

I mistyped sorry..meant to say 4 ft. :P


np

can you imagine the height of the drifts?
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1267. will40
Quoting 1251. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Rain rate is over 1", contaminated data.


yes but no flag
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Quoting 1250. Drakoen:
Where is Scott? I'm sure he'd love to see these obs. lol


No kidding. He took a lot of guff this morning/ afternoon.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.