97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1436. MAweatherboy1:
As Wash mentioned, a little MDR storm on this GFS run...

2013 could've been a impressive cape verde storm season if it wasn't for all the subsidence and dry air.
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Ms, I would give it a rest. That blogger isn't Scott. Take a few hrs off and relax. If Scott was right then he's right.
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
To heck with this. I'm out.
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Will this recurve or give CaribBoy the rain he so desperately wants? Stay tuned for another episode as the GFS turns.

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1462. Torito
Quoting 1457. GatorWX:
Both of you then. Ignore one another... it's not difficult.


and ignore, dont just ignore. if the post gets flagged it usually gets deleted after a while. :P
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1461. Thrawst
Quoting 1452. Torito:


YEA! THATS WHAT BAR FIGHTS ARE FOR!!!!!!!!


Lol... no need for all caps either. ;)
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Quoting 1458. PcolaSurf182:


Those guys are still around right? Or maybe just remember the name from back then.
Yes but the only original guy (of which I was one) left is Conrad.
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1459. acl8610
Quoting 1397. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Problem with the models is their initializing the low too far to the west and has it going over the Yucatan Peninsula. I think it shoots the gap.



I agree with that... been watching the comments in addition to my met experience and understand why everyone is looking at a central gulf coast landfall. The landfall location seems like it will be determined by the speed of the cold front as is common this time of year (duh). The one caveat to this is thunderstorm outflows pushing the front to the south faster than the models are showing attm, hence a further east scenario.
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Quoting 1450. PensacolaDoug:


Ba'Nana Republic.


Those guys are still around right? Or maybe just remember the name from back then.
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1457. GatorWX
Both of you then. Ignore one another... it's not difficult.
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Quoting 1453. auburn:
Just a reminder.. Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic. Thank you all..

Thanks Auburn.
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1455. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 22:18Z
Date: October 2, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 43

22:18:30Z 19.733N 86.017W 976.6 mb
(~ 28.84 inHg) 273 meters
(~ 896 feet) 1007.3 mb
(~ 29.75 inHg) - From 222° at 12 knots
(From the SW at ~ 13.8 mph) 23.9°C
(~ 75.0°F) 23.2°C
(~ 73.8°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) 13 knots
(~ 14.9 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 11.1 knots (~ 12.8 mph)
92.9%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 22:09:00Z (first observation), the observation was 78 miles (125 km) to the SE (139°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

At 22:18:30Z (last observation), the observation was 111 miles (179 km) to the SSE (152°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
1454. Torito
Quoting 1453. auburn:
Just a reminder.. Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic. Thank you all..


Thanks, auburn. :3
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1453. auburn (Mod)
Just a reminder.. Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic. Thank you all..
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50659
1452. Torito
Quoting 1446. TylerStanfield:
1431. Personal Attacks of other blog members is not allowed on this blog. If you want to insult and attack someone online, go somewhere else other than a weather blog.


YEA! THATS WHAT BAR FIGHTS ARE FOR!!!!!!!!
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1451. will40
From 273° at 5 knots
(From the W at ~ 5.8 mph)

ok she is closed now the question is if the center is well defined
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Quoting 1447. PcolaSurf182:


What was the name of your band? Was a little young then, but might have seen you play.


Ba'Nana Republic.
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Been outta the loop all day - what are the steering factors with this storm? Thanks!
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I wish someone would post satellite images of 97L! :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11274
Quoting 1430. PensacolaDoug:


I played in a reggae band almost every weekend during the 1990's and early 2000's. Flounder's, BamBoo Willies, and The Dock, mostly, I had my share of canes and Bushwhackers.


What was the name of your band? Was a little young then, but might have seen you play.
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1431. Personal Attacks of other blog members is not allowed on this blog. If you want to insult and attack someone online, go somewhere else other than a weather blog.
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1445. Broward
... Record daily maximum rainfall still being set at MIA ...

Record rainfall of 4.2 inches still being set at Miami International Airport.

This breaks the old record of 3.02 set in 1936.


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Could future Karen possibly move in tandem with the shear like Wilma did?.
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Est LLC is near 20.5N and 86W
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1690
Quoting 1436. MAweatherboy1:
As Wash mentioned, a little MDR storm on this GFS run...



Ummm interesting.
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Quite supportive data esp during 3 PM hour readings to say the least from Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin - 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX

Max 1 min winds - 3:19 pm 33.0 kts SE ( 140 deg true )
Min Pressure - 3:19 pm 29.72 in
Peak Gust - 3:19 pm SE ( 140 deg ) 38.9 kts

97L's position now and general track forecast / synoptic set-up is reminding me of Hurricane Ida 2009 somewhat... but a month earlier.
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By calling someone a name or attacking someone, what some people attempt to do is encase their opponent under a label deemed by society to be negative, minimizing them and whatever they were standing for. In reality, by doing so, they are allowing themselves to being labeled, and also lose both the high ground and the argument.
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Quoting 1433. BaltimoreBrian:


What instrument?


Keyboards.
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As Wash mentioned, a little MDR storm on this GFS run...

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1435. vis0
CREDIT: Hawaii/Wisc.
SUBJECT: INVEST97L
PERIOD: ~4 hours ernding  201310-02'2015




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Quoting 1427. hydrus:
Infra Red..
You're doing an amazing job posting these satellite images, hydrus. Keep up the good work buddy. :)
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Quoting 1430. PensacolaDoug:


I played in a reggae band almost every weekend during the 1990's and early 2000's. Flounder's, BamBoo Willies, and The Dock, mostly, I had my share of canes and Bushwhackers.


What instrument?
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1432. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667

Quoting 1417. MississippiWx:


You give it a rest. I'm being attacked and you tell me to give it a rest. Put me on ignore.
No ones attacking you, at least "I'm" not...  I just wanted to point out what may seem obvious to others but not to you, what an arrogant as you come across as sometimes (constantly) to others' posts.   Now that I have spoken, I will not bother the issue again..  Thanks and sorry for the comment.  Back to the WX
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Quoting 1406. taco2me61:

Hey I know I do that's for sure.... Been there many times my self.... :o)

Taco :o)


I played in a reggae band almost every weekend during the 1990's and early 2000's. Flounder's, BamBoo Willies, and The Dock, mostly, I had my share of canes and Bushwhackers.
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Quoting 1404. MAweatherboy1:
The 18z GFS also shows whatever becomes of 97L eventually being a soaking rainstorm for the whole East Coast:



My local met saying this as well.
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1428. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1427. hydrus
Infra Red..
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Whoops, Accidently plused his post. ugh
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1425. barbamz

Chasing the COC of (still) 97L. At least a very entertaining evening with the HH and you on the blog, lol. Tomorrow there's the national holiday in Germany. Wonder whether I'll do something different than watching future Karen, sigh?
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6028
1424. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting 1419. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is the tropics about to wake up and give us a grand finale, like the ones we see during 4th of July? :D
Probably.

Sorry MsWx didn't mean to plus that post.
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Quoting 1414. MississippiWx:


K, Scott.

lol
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Quoting 1415. GatorWX:
MSwx, give it a rest will ya??
Quoting 1417. MississippiWx:


You give it a rest. I'm being attacked and you tell me to give it a rest. Put me on ignore.



Play nic now you two
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING
EAST THROUGH IT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION.

THIS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY TO PUSH NORTH OF THE
REGION. BEST CHANCE OF ANY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
BE N&W OF NYC ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO
THE NORTH OR WASHES OUT. BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WOULD BE ACROSS
NW ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF A
DECELERATING APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST...WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION.
WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN WILL FALL IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.


&&

From the New York NWS discussion...
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Quoting 1409. washingtonian115:
This well worth it!.Notice a storm in the MDR.
Is the tropics about to wake up and give us a grand finale, like the ones we see during 4th of July? :D
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Quoting 1415. GatorWX:
MSwx, give it a rest will ya??


You give it a rest. I'm being attacked and you tell me to give it a rest. Put me on ignore.
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1416. will40
im beginning to wonder if it has closed off the center
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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