97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1500. LargoFl:
yes i was thinking the same thing


From Wiki
A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on October 15, and intensified into a tropical storm two days later, which was named Wilma. After heading westward as a tropical depression, Wilma turned abruptly southward after becoming a tropical storm. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, extreme intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).
Wilma went from a T.D. to a Cat 5 Hurricane in 3 - 4 days!
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I think 97L/Karen might just go over the Western tip of Cuba toward the Miami area.
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Looks like those track runs are pretty much a go, they seemed to be like that all day.
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1513. Thrawst
Quoting 1506. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Recon closed off the center a short time ago, Tyler. Catch up man. :)


So this is a tropical cyclone now?
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18Z GFSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS LOL
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1511. Torito
Quoting 1508. barbamz:
Flight track of HH today looks like a chinese letter-character. I hope it doesn't mean something inappropriate in China, lol.



-----------


Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW). Click to enlarge. Looks like the circulation of the wave is already half way in the Gulf.


LOL that would be bad...
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Its safe to call that looking at all the observations from recon we do have a closed LLC but its still not well defined. NHC can upgrade to TS Karen with winds of 40MPH , also expect the model track to shift further east but a landfall into Florida is highly likely
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1509. LargoFl
someone tell 97 its October.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40845
1508. barbamz
Flight track of HH today looks like a chinese letter-character. I hope it doesn't mean something inappropriate in China, lol.


Saved image. Source.

-----------


Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW). Click to enlarge. Looks like the circulation of the wave is already half way in the Gulf.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6238
1507. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40845
Quoting 1487. TylerStanfield:

Contaminated Winds, the most frequently found winds were winds of 40 Mph and there is no evidence of a closed circulation.

1484. Cody, Stop it.

Recon closed off the center a short time ago, Tyler. Catch up man. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
1505. GetReal


Lil bit for everyone on N Gulf coast.
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1504. Torito
Quoting 1500. LargoFl:
yes i was thinking the same thing


I figure i will get hate posts for saying that, but i might be wrong. :P
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Quoting 1495. RGVtropicalWx13:

Post 1451

Hadn't heard word yet, haven't refreshed my browser in a while. Depends on how well-defined the circulation is too, though.
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I don't know about anybody else, but all I can say is....it's October....there's a CDO forming south of Cuba...the B gap is open between right guard and right tackle (the Yucatan Channel)....and this has been the craziest ass Hurricane Season I've ever followed. So expect the unexpected and pray 97L/soon to be Karen has no relation to a bro named Mitch or a wicked sis named Wilma.
Member Since: November 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
Quoting 1483. FOREX:


Local WMBB MET here in Panama City Beach just said his futurecast shows future Karen going to NOLA.


Our local met just showed his "futurecast" model run and it went into the middle panhandle.

I guess its all based on which model they are using for guidance.
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1500. LargoFl
Quoting 1494. Torito:
I have never seen a disturbance develop so quickly.... it looks almost like a hurricane to me now..
yes i was thinking the same thing
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40845
1499. will40
Quoting 1487. TylerStanfield:

Contaminated Winds, the most frequently found winds were winds of 40 Mph and there is no evidence of a closed circulation.

1484. Cody, Stop it.


recon found plenty of W winds
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1498. GetReal
NAVGEM 84 hours:
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Quoting 1492. washingtonian115:
It looks like we don't have Don part two on out hands thank goodness.But do people remember that invest that just went poof! after it looked real good?.(Invest 94L back in August)

Always something to take in a account that the system always has the possibility to fall apart, before being named. Some invests fizzle, while others maintain and succeed. 97L appears that it is going to maintain and succeed in becoming a named storm.
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Quoting 1488. PensacolaDoug:


Depends, If K goes to the west of us, yes. To the east..nah not too much.


East of us will mean off shore winds and hopefully a descent swell. Still a win in my book as long as it's manageable.
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Quoting 1487. TylerStanfield:

Contaminated Winds, the most frequently found winds were winds of 40 Mph and there is no evidence of a closed circulation.

Post 1451
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 567
1494. Torito
I have never seen a disturbance develop so quickly.... it looks almost like a hurricane to me now..

And yes, i know that the wind speeds are too low right now.
Quoting 1485. LargoFl:
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1493. LargoFl
last pic i could find hydrus.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40845
It looks like we don't have Don part two on our hands thank goodness.But do people remember that invest that just went poof! after it looked real good?.(Invest 94L back in August)
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1491. Patrap
National Weather Service New Orleans la
341 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 2 2013



Long term...

the main focus late week through the weekend relates to the tropics.
A tropical wave is currently tracking northwest across the western
Carribean just east of the Yucatan. A hurricane hunter aircraft is
currently flying through the system to investigate. The latest from
the National Hurricane Center currently is calling for a 70 percent
chance of this wave developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 5
days. Medium range models send mixed messages on the development of
the wave. The European model (ecmwf) keeps it open while the GFS suggests a closed
circulation develops. These models were not designed to forecast
cyclogenesis of tropical cyclones. However... can give a good idea
of timing. Unfortunately...large differences between the two at this
time. The GFS brings the tropical system across the coastal waters
Friday night/Saturday morning. European model (ecmwf) about 24 hours slower with a
similar but slightly further west track. The main determining
factor is approaching upper trough and associated cold front. The
initial closed upper low will drop out of the Pacific northeast
towards the Rocky Mountains. From there the low will curl northeast
towards the upper Mississippi River valley while the base of the
trough still surges south and east on Saturday. The GFS has been
more accurate with faster solutions with the most recent couple
frontal passages which leads to leaning towards it vs the European model (ecmwf). If
thats the case and the County Warning Area remains on the western side of the
tropical system...most of the rain will remain east of the area with
only coastal waters and adjacent parishes/counties being impacted
with very rough seas and coastal flooding. If upper trough is
slower...the tropical system will make it further north before
curving northeast. At this time...the general consensus of model solutions
bring the trough in faster so the tropical system curves northeast
earlier but the range does go from the western side of the County Warning Area to
the Florida Panhandle so it remains to be seen which Route it/ll
take. No big changes made to probability of precipitation this weekend but may need too drop
probability of precipitation if on the dry side of things.

Rainfall from the actual cold front will not be too much...likely
less than an inch as the boundary will be moving through very
quickly. The biggest cool down since last Spring will ensue Post
frontal with highs around 80 and lows in the 50s and 60s.

Meffer
&&

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?Discus sionCode=LIX&StateCode=LA&SafeCityName=New_Orleans #X7fpF8HI7wlm1QuW.99
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1490. GatorWX
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Quoting 1438. PensacolaDoug:


Keyboards.


Very cool.
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Quoting 1478. PcolaSurf182:


I see. Think we will see any action around here this weekend?


Depends, If K goes to the west of us, yes. To the east..nah not too much.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
Quoting 1480. SFLWeatherman:
Looks like TS #Karen has formed in the NW Caribbean. Hurricane hunters have found winds near 70mph.

Contaminated Winds, the most frequently found winds were winds of 40 Mph and there is no evidence of a closed circulation.

1484. Cody, Stop it.
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Dang this place is moving fast today, I can't even keep up.
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1485. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40845
Quoting 1480. SFLWeatherman:
Looks like TS #Karen has formed in the NW Caribbean. Hurricane hunters have found winds near 70mph.

Those winds were contaminated. The reliable winds are down near 40 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
1483. FOREX
Quoting 1463. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Will this recurve or give CaribBoy the rain he so desperately wants? Stay tuned for another episode as the GFS turns.



Local WMBB MET here in Panama City Beach just said his futurecast shows future Karen going to NOLA.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
1482. Thrawst
Quoting 1463. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Will this recurve or give CaribBoy the rain he so desperately wants? Stay tuned for another episode as the GFS turns.



Is that a 1000 I see.... well.......... I guess Cape-verde season is starting again ;) lol
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Quoting 1465. RGVtropicalWx13:
Ms, I would give it a rest. That blogger isn't Scott. Take a few hrs off and relax. If Scott was right then he's right.


*sigh*

Might want to read up on the rest of the blog before making a comment like that.

Now, I'm gone.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
From Eric Burris - Meteorologist

Looks like TS #Karen has formed in the NW Caribbean. Hurricane hunters have found winds near 70mph.
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1479. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40845
Quoting 1460. PensacolaDoug:
Yes but the only original guy (of which I was one) left is Conrad.


I see. Think we will see any action around here this weekend?
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1477. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
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Quoting 1471. Drakoen:
Looks like its up near 20.4N 85.9W.


Which state is 97L most likely to hit? Or better yet, which longitude?
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1472. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40845
1471. Drakoen
Looks like its up near 20.4N 85.9W.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30607
1470. Torito
Quoting 1463. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Will this recurve or give CaribBoy the rain he so desperately wants? Stay tuned for another episode as the GFS turns.



LOL best comment of the day!
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1469. Thrawst
Quoting 1464. MississippiWx:
Screw this. I'm out.


Drewwwwww stay! haha
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1468. GatorWX
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Quoting 1397. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Problem with the models is their initializing the low too far to the west and has it going over the Yucatan Peninsula. I think it shoots the gap.

You mean the Yucatan Channel?

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Quoting 1436. MAweatherboy1:
As Wash mentioned, a little MDR storm on this GFS run...

2013 could've been a impressive cape verde storm season if it wasn't for all the subsidence and dry air.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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