97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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1566. RGVtropicalWx13
11:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Dude stop going by the twc their always wrong
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 448
1565. BaltimoreBrian
11:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Cancun has a nice pressure drop



and winds from the ENE



Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
1564. Torito
11:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
POOR 93-E not getting any attention at all...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1563. Matt1989
11:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
It is still establishing a center which is why recon is having trouble finding a defined one.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
1562. Articuno
11:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1559. FOREX:


According to TWC, it is not.

TWC is not a reliable source when it comes to this stuff.
I'm being serious.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2296
1561. Torito
11:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1559. FOREX:


According to TWC, it is not.


but TWC is always wrong...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1560. icmoore
11:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
I'm sorry if this has been asked but I was wondering two things. The first one is earlier I saw posted by someone :) that the stronger it gets the more east it goes but that doesn't seem to be the case right now? And two if it shoots the gap what kind of an effect would that have on the future track?
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1559. FOREX
11:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1556. Torito:
I think it is going through RI right now................................





According to TWC, it is not.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1441
1558. kmanislander
11:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1553. Drakoen:
Starting to think the recon isn't convinced of any coc with 97L


Well, if they are on the way home that would seem to be a fair assessment. No sondes released either.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15748
1557. Sfloridacat5
10:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1548. acl8610:

This front looks to eventually push cooler air into central FL. Especially at 925-850 mb.


I hope some of that air gets down to me in Ft. Myers.

Its a sign the rainy season (not hurricane) is coming to an end.
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1556. Torito
10:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
I think it is going through RI right now................................



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1555. Patrap
10:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
1554. BaltimoreBrian
10:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1542. kmanislander:
Been off for a while. Still no closed low ??.

I see the aircraft still out there.


Cozumel was reporting NE winds earlier this afternoon

Roatan Honduras was reporting west winds although they have gone to the north.

Semi-closed?
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
1553. Drakoen
10:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Starting to think the recon isn't convinced of any coc with 97L
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
1552. Patrap
10:57 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
1551. kmanislander
10:57 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Quoting 1547. will40:


yes she closed but prob not well defined


So no classification on this mission then.

I do not see anything in the track of the entire mission that looks like a closed low.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15748
1550. FOREX
Quoting 1543. Seflhurricane:
True but irene Came from south of Central cuba And cut through the Middle Keys into Southern Florida, 97L is nearing the yucatan channel it can do a wilma type track but i see that as unlikely looks to me a Sarasota to north florida landfall. But yes to a point you are right


TWC hurricane specialist just said the HH are not impressed with what they have found. hmmmmmmm.
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1549. Patrap
RECON is returning back to Keesler, AFB Biloxi.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
1548. acl8610
Quoting 1535. Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, the cold front associated with Wilma was quite strong and ended up pushing all the way through Fl.

This front looks to eventually push cooler air into central FL. Especially at 925-850 mb.
Member Since: October 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
1547. will40
Quoting 1542. kmanislander:
Been off for a while. Still no closed low ??.

I see the aircraft still out there.


yes she closed but prob not well defined
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4111
1546. barbamz


Still very erratic wind finding from recon (Easterly winds on the western side of possible COC). Source.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5681
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 021515
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 02 OCTOBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 03/1800Z, 04/0000Z A. 03/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0312A CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0412A CYCLONE
C. 03/1600Z C. 03/1800Z
D. 23.3N 88.8W D. 23.4N 88.9W
E. 03/1730 TO 04/0000Z E. 03/2000Z TO 05/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73 FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 43
A. 04/0600Z, 1200Z A. 04/0800Z
B. AFXXX 0512A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 0612A CYCLONE
C. 04/0430Z C. 04/0600Z
D. 25.8N 89.3W D. 25.9N 89.3W
E. 04/0530Z TO 04/1200Z E. 04/0730Z TO 04/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT. P-3 MISSIONS DEPARTING
AT 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2557
1544. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1531. floridabuckeyes:


Sefl....respect your opinion...but 2 things say otherwise, could be a stronger/slower storm...and the cold front appears to be a little stronger according to earlier posts. I, by no means want it to curve right as I'm in Broward, but there is also no history to count the middle 2/3 out either. Remember Irene???
True but irene Came from south of Central cuba And cut through the Middle Keys into Southern Florida, 97L is nearing the yucatan channel it can do a wilma type track but i see that as unlikely looks to me a Sarasota to north florida landfall. But yes to a point you are right
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Been off for a while. Still no closed low ??.

I see the aircraft still out there.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15748
1541. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36998


Maybe something of interest...
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1539. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1538. acl8610
Quoting 1518. hydrus:
If 97L does intensify to a strong tropical storm, its forward motion would increase some, and bring it in on the northern gulf coast..jmo..Outflow is looking a tad better..


It is important to look at the models that are turning 97L somewhat sharply to the NE. Many of those that show this tend handle convective processes better, particularly convection along a cold front... Also the center does seem to be further east than originally thought.
Member Since: October 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
1537. LargoFl
one thing is certain...its going to be a very loooooong few days following this and trying to guess how strong and where huh..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36998
This also shows that the strongest convection is displaced to the NE of the center. Rapid development is unlikely tonight for this reason. However tomorrow may be different.

Also with the 31 kt sustained winds it is likely that tropical storm force winds are already occurring at the surface.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting 1525. Seflhurricane:
very unlikely it would have to take a very strong cold front nearing the gulf coast now to begin a curve , like Hurricane wilma type scenario


Yeah, the cold front associated with Wilma was quite strong and ended up pushing all the way through Fl.
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1534. LargoFl
Quoting 1533. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its coming to Toronto as a big rain event followed by big temp drop
send some of that temp drop to My area keeper lol..man we need it here.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36998
1533. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1507. LargoFl:
its coming to Toronto as a big rain event followed by big temp drop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Buoy 42056 is at 19.8N 84.9W

The winds there are from the SSE, which means the surface center must be to the SW or WSW of that position. It has recorded sustained winds as high as 31 kts.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting 1510. Seflhurricane:
Its safe to call that looking at all the observations from recon we do have a closed LLC but its still not well defined. NHC can upgrade to TS Karen with winds of 40MPH , also expect the model track to shift further east but a landfall into Florida is highly likely


Sefl....respect your opinion...but 2 things say otherwise, could be a stronger/slower storm...and the cold front appears to be a little stronger according to earlier posts. I, by no means want it to curve right as I'm in Broward, but there is also no history to count the middle 2/3 out either. Remember Irene???
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Link


radar loop out of cancun
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Quoting 1516. Sfloridacat5:


From Wiki
A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on October 15, and intensified into a tropical storm two days later, which was named Wilma. After heading westward as a tropical depression, Wilma turned abruptly southward after becoming a tropical storm. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, extreme intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).
Wilma went from a T.D. to a Cat 5 Hurricane in 3 - 4 days!
The infamous pinhole.The caribbean can create vicious monsters.
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Quoting 1516. Sfloridacat5:


From Wiki
A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on October 15, and intensified into a tropical storm two days later, which was named Wilma. After heading westward as a tropical depression, Wilma turned abruptly southward after becoming a tropical storm. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, extreme intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).
Wilma went from a T.D. to a Cat 5 Hurricane in 3 - 4 days!



Hurricane Wilma was simply a freak of nature, heck the 2 seasons of 2004 to 2005 were a freak of nature. Its funny to think how insane it was during those seasons in comparison to this lame duck of a season.



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1527. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628


Pfffffftttttt this is what's left of it....
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Quoting 1515. stormpetrol:
I think 97L/Karen might just go over the Western tip of Cuba toward the Miami area.
very unlikely it would have to take a very strong cold front nearing the gulf coast now to begin a curve , like Hurricane wilma type scenario
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1524. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
1523. LargoFl
Quoting 1516. Sfloridacat5:


From Wiki
A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on October 15, and intensified into a tropical storm two days later, which was named Wilma. After heading westward as a tropical depression, Wilma turned abruptly southward after becoming a tropical storm. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, extreme intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).
Wilma went from a T.D. to a Cat 5 Hurricane in 3 days!
outside of a visable eye..looks pretty much the same huh.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36998
1522. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
1521. LargoFl
models have no idea..............
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1520. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
Quoting 1463. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Will this recurve or give CaribBoy the rain he so desperately wants? Stay tuned for another episode as the GFS turns.



XD XD XD XD XD XD XD XD XD

....at least there is still some hopes....

:) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)
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1518. hydrus
Quoting 1459. acl8610:


I agree with that... been watching the comments in addition to my met experience and understand why everyone is looking at a central gulf coast landfall. The landfall location seems like it will be determined by the speed of the cold front as is common this time of year (duh). The one caveat to this is thunderstorm outflows pushing the front to the south faster than the models are showing attm, hence a further east scenario.
If 97L does intensify to a strong tropical storm, its forward motion would increase some, and bring it in on the northern gulf coast..jmo..Outflow is looking a tad better..
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Quoting 1513. Thrawst:


So this is a tropical cyclone now?

Unofficially.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31519
Quoting 1500. LargoFl:
yes i was thinking the same thing


From Wiki
A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on October 15, and intensified into a tropical storm two days later, which was named Wilma. After heading westward as a tropical depression, Wilma turned abruptly southward after becoming a tropical storm. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, extreme intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).
Wilma went from a T.D. to a Cat 5 Hurricane in 3 - 4 days!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6160

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.