97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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1616. JLPR2
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING...

Land friction might finally give 97L a well defined LLC.
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1615. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
It's Ill defined because west winds were found according to post 1451. Not good enough yet but can at any time now
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1613. Patrap
Freud was right seems.

; )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
1612. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
1611. Drakoen
Quoting 1598. beell:


LOL, Drak. I think it has happened at least once or twice.


Over the entire season thus far? That's bad. Nothing better than the Drak-beell consensus model.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1543. Seflhurricane:
True but irene Came from south of Central cuba And cut through the Middle Keys into Southern Florida, 97L is nearing the yucatan channel it can do a wilma type track but i see that as unlikely looks to me a Sarasota to north florida landfall. But yes to a point you are right


SeFl....beg to differ again...Wilma was a Cat 5....pummeled the Yucatan for 2 or 3 days then made a beeline for South Fla...these Oct storms have a mind of their own.
Member Since: November 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
Quoting 1608. MississippiWx:


We called this one this morning.


We did. On to the next round.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting 1602. kmanislander:


Maybe I wont be called a hater any more for taking the position I have taken with 97L all day LOL


We called this one this morning.
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1607. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344


Hurricane Ingrid



97-L

Looks can be deceiving.... I guess
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Quoting 1583. wxmanjarod:
Can't afford to classify this thing yet! You can thank the government shutdown. :-) Classifying a Tropical Depression isn't cheap!



We could afford to bomb Syria 3 weeks ago and now we can't afford the keep the WW2 Memorial open?
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1604. Drakoen
System continues to gradually deepen with that 1005mb pressure reading.

Quoting 1596. MississippiWx:
Ha. No defined center.


You and Scott both kinda won today. You guys should call a truce and make up lol.
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I said take a break lol. One hrs isn't a break.
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Quoting 1596. MississippiWx:
Ha. No defined center.


Maybe I wont be called a hater any more for taking the position I have taken with 97L all day LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting 1591. Articuno:

Like Ernesto?
Hope not.

Not to sound like a "wishcaster'" but it would be truly disappointing.
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Quoting 1595. Drakoen:


That's where I see it around. We agree for once. :) haha


I think buoy 42056 shows it must still be below 20N.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8004
1599. Patrap
LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
1598. beell
Quoting 1595. Drakoen:


That's where I see it around. We agree for once. :) haha


LOL, Drak. I think it has happened at least once or twice.
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1597. LargoFl
well tropical storms do throw off waterspouts and tornado's huh...how would I know?..................







Being prepared for tornadoes is all the more critical because they often strike suddenly and with no warning.

Along with preparing your property, it's important to learn the natural signs of a tornado and discuss with your family what to do in the event of an emergency.

Make sure you and your family know the warning signs of a tornado, which include:

◾An unusual greenish or black color in the sky
◾Hail or heavy rain followed by either dead calm or a fast, intense wind shift
◾A visible funnel cloud that has not yet touched the ground
◾A loud, continuous rumble that does not fade after a few seconds, as does thunder
◾A sound like a waterfall, freight train or jet
If a tornado watch is in effect, pay close attention to radio and television reports from the National Weather Service. Be prepared to move to your storm-safe room. If a tornado warning is issued or if a tornado has touched down near you, take immediate action to ensure your safety and the safety your family.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Ha. No defined center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1595. Drakoen
Quoting 1590. beell:


Couldn't make much out of it either. Ill-defined but maybe 20.3N 85.9W if you wanted to stretch the truth!


That's where I see it around. We agree for once. :) haha
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Goodbye til 9pm.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 2211
Quoting 1573. TropicalAnalystwx13:
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS EXTENSIVELY
INVESTIGATED THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND DETERMINED THAT THE SYSTEM DID NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY
. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


I agree entirely. Good call by the HH
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1592. Patrap
The Shutdown has NO impact on NHC, AFR HH or NOAA HH, Hurricane Obs, flights or other.

If you can source other, please do.

We do truth and Science here, well sometimes.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Quoting 1587. barbamz:


Hmm, of course, I have no clue, but a serious question. Without the MJO being around but an anticyclone aloft: May this be the culprit for a system looking so good on satellite but with nothing worth to mention beneath?

Like Ernesto?
Hope not.
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1590. beell
Quoting 1551. kmanislander:


So no classification on this mission then.

I do not see anything in the track of the entire mission that looks like a closed low.


Couldn't make much out of it either. Ill-defined but maybe 20.3N 85.9W if you wanted to stretch the truth!
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Press: 1005.0 mb
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1588. Torito
Quoting 1575. interstatelover7166:
RIP 97L/TD 12/TS/HU/KAREN


Ummm, no.... just no......

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
1587. barbamz
Quoting 1577. Articuno:
TBH I would be surprised if it's not upgraded by tomorrow. It's one of the best looking invests I've seen in a while.


Hmm, of course, I have no clue, but a serious question. Without the MJO being around but an anticyclone aloft: May this be the culprit for a system looking so good on satellite but with nothing worth to mention beneath?
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 5020
1586. Patrap
Teal 71 is a Mission to 97L just as the last.

AF HH C-130 from Keesler.

RECON is the best tool we have .

97L is getting there.

A Quick gander at the intensity guidance tells a lot as well.




Cyclogenesis is a process, not a switch throw.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Quoting 1575. interstatelover7166:
RIP 97L/TD 12/TS/HU/KAREN

???
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Quoting 1576. will40:



another flight scheduled to take off at 11:00 PM eastern.


In 4 hours ??. That would place the aircraft back in the system about 6 hours from now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Can't afford to classify this thing yet! You can thank the government shutdown. :-) Classifying a Tropical Depression isn't cheap!
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Next recon mission departs at 11pm EDT.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Inside the Megastorm airing 9 p.m. tonight on PBS.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8004
1580. LargoFl
If I lived up in the panhandle, me i'd be preparing for a tropical storm,possibly a strong one..what would I have to do?......for sure gutters cleaned out..loose things around the house taken in...maybe a dangerous branch or two taken down beforehand....what else would I need to do??.......TS dont have the huge hurricane force winds..but they do cause some kind of surge..so maybe some coastal flooding..what I would be preparing for is alot of rain...anything else?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Quoting 1570. Torito:


i think it still has earned at least TD status for the next advisory.


The NHC will have to form a view based upon data other than recon later tonight. Not sure when the next mission is but this run was very meticulous and lasted some 5 hours approx. on station.

They can always upgrade based upon ship reports etc. if appropriate in advance of the next visit by the HH.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1578. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
TBH I would be surprised if it's not upgraded by tomorrow. It's one of the best looking invests I've seen in a while.
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1576. will40
Quoting 1568. kmanislander:


Hard to find what is not there but it could come in the next few hours the way the system looks now. There is a good chance we will still see this classified before tomorrow morning but I was always skeptical it would be classified this afternoon.

As I said earlier, it just didn't have the goods under the hood today, very broad and disorganised even though it looked potent.



another flight scheduled to take off at 11:00 PM eastern.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
Quoting 1551. kmanislander:


So no classification on this mission then.

I do not see anything in the track of the entire mission that looks like a closed low.
RIP 97L/TD 12/TS/HU/KAREN
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No Special Advisory but it may be a TS anytime.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS EXTENSIVELY
INVESTIGATED THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND DETERMINED THAT THE SYSTEM DID NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY
. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting 1569. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure it is. Qualified meteorologists do work there, after all.

I didn't hear anything from Greg Postel about the Hurricane Hunter data, but I've not been paying too much attention.

ok
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1571. acl8610
Quoting 1557. Sfloridacat5:


I hope some of that air gets down to me in Ft. Myers.

Its a sign the rainy season (not hurricane) is coming to an end.

It wont. The lower level humidity and temps are at the mercy of the gulf and atlantic here on the FL peninsula. Wait another month or so for stronger systems.
Member Since: October 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
1570. Torito
Quoting 1568. kmanislander:


Hard to find what is not there but it could come in the next few hours the way the system looks now. There is a good chance we will still see this classified before tomorrow morning but I was always skeptical it would be classified this afternoon.

As I said earlier, it just didn't have the goods under the hood today, very broad and disorganised even though it looked potent.


i think it still has earned at least TD status for the next advisory.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
Quoting 1562. Articuno:

TWC is not a reliable source when it comes to this stuff.
I'm being serious.

Sure it is. Qualified meteorologists do work there, after all.

I didn't hear anything from Greg Postel about the Hurricane Hunter data, but I've not been paying too much attention.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting 1563. Matt1989:
It is still establishing a center which is why recon is having trouble finding a defined one.


Hard to find what is not there but it could come in the next few hours the way the system looks now. There is a good chance we will still see this classified before tomorrow morning but I was always skeptical it would be classified this afternoon.

As I said earlier, it just didn't have the goods under the hood today, very broad and disorganised even though it looked potent.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1567. FOREX
Quoting 1562. Articuno:

TWC is not a reliable source when it comes to this stuff.
I'm being serious.


The hurricane specialist said the HH were not impressed.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 846
Dude stop going by the twc their always wrong
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.