97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1658. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys LOL I guess we got hurricane Karen now



Always the jokester. Have another Coors. :)
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1665. Patrap
97L seems to be a fine navigator as she heads slowly toward the Yucatan Channel, leaving the Caribbean by Morn now.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting 1658. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys LOL I guess we got hurricane Karen now



Wow! Let me post the renumber...be back in a minute.
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1663. sar2401
Quoting MahFL:
Lol no TS at 8 pm. 2013, what a year.

What??? That can't be right!!! Many of our "expert" forecasters and HH report interpreters were sure this was a minimum TS...some even thought it was a HURRICANE!!! Is is because those incompetent hurricane hunter pilots just can find a 999 low center????

You've just got to love this place once the stormgasms take over. :-)
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Quoting 1654. FOREX:


Will prob be over land when they arrive.lol.

It may miss the Yucatan all together
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Quoting 1648. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pay no attention to those wind readings...recon was ascending, guys.


Well, now that you mentioned it, I shall go and pay attention to those wind readings and completely ignore the rest of your statement.

:P
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1660. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
1659. Pallis
Quoting 1642. trunkmonkey:


63% of 2,000,000 of Federal workers are still working, Harry Reid refuses to vote to get other Federal workers back!
This is not a vote to get workers back. They got laid off by the Schutzstaffel, This is a hand full of men trying to force an unpopular bill on America. The method is supposed to scare people. It is not working. Weather still happens without NOAH, and Sunday I am going gill netting. Fish fry everyone!
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Hey guys LOL I guess we got hurricane Karen now

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1657. 7544
Look whats formin to the north. Of 97 those bands s are movin tword so fl. Loks like theg goin to get lots a of rain in a few hours??? Or will it misss them
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1656. SLU
Quoting 1633. Tazmanian:
lol


23:11:00Z 21.233N 85.800W 486.9 mb
(~ 14.38 inHg) 6,072 meters
(~ 19,921 feet) - 299 meters
(~ 981 feet) From 219° at 108 knots
(From the SW at ~ 124.2 mph) -0.0°C
(~ 32.0°F) -5.6°C
(~ 21.9°F) 125 knots
(~ 143.8 mph)


OMG. RI :)
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1655. Drakoen
Quoting 1650. kmanislander:
I am out for now. Dinner etc.

Will check back later on.


Was just about to ask how things were holding up in your 5,000 sq ft house
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30557
1654. FOREX
Quoting 1651. weatherxtreme:
So Recon back up at 11pm tonight, who knows maybe a TS by morning, we shall see I guess.


Will prob be over land when they arrive.lol.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
1653. Patrap
Been friends with Kman over 5 years, but I'm no Lawyer.

I'm Mo a Sea Shanty doodler.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Still the best nonlooking ts I've seen this season. Post 1636
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
So Recon back up at 11pm tonight, who knows maybe a TS by morning, we shall see I guess.
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I am out for now. Dinner etc.

Will check back later on.
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1649. MahFL
On the positive side cloud tops are getting cooler again.
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Pay no attention to those wind readings...recon was ascending, guys.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
1647. Patrap
RECON flew thru that Burst in the 11-12 o'clock position from the overall.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
1646. Pallis
Quoting 1620. Patrap:
Not a lawyer?

; 0
Are you a corporate lawyer who went to Gainsville? If so .. Naw, couldn't be.
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Quoting 1641. FOREX:


Not even a depression?


Except for some bloggers. :)
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1644. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Hi everyone, if you haven't seen this yet, Wunderground would appreciate it if you checked it out:

Shaun Tanner and Wundermap Survey
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Quoting 1605. PensacolaDoug:



We could afford to bomb Syria 3 weeks ago and now we can't afford the keep the WW2 Memorial open?


63% of 2,000,000 of Federal workers are still working, Harry Reid refuses to vote to get other Federal workers back!
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1641. FOREX
Quoting 1636. MahFL:
Lol no TS at 8 pm. 2013, what a year.


Not even a depression?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
1640. sar2401
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Calling in here first, future Karen will become a major hurricane.

$100 to your favorite charity if Karen makes landfall in the CONUS at cat 3 or above. $100 to mine if it's no more than a cat 1 (really, a TS, but I'm giving myself a little wiggle room). You on?
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1639. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting 1619. Patrap:
www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15

23:11:00Z 21.233N 85.800W 486.9 mb

(~ 14.38 inHg) 6,072 meters

(~ 19,921 feet) - 299 meters

(~ 981 feet) From 219° at 108 knots

(From the SW at ~ 124.2 mph)
Something very wacky there.
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1637. MrEvans
On my drive home from work from Cutler Ridge to downtown MIami, I got hammered by the steadiest, strongest rain I've seen since I moved here three years ago! Could barely see through my windshield. Me no like.
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1636. MahFL
Lol no TS at 8 pm. 2013, what a year.
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Quoting 1620. Patrap:
Not a lawyer?

; 0


Nice one Pat. Good to have old friends on here :-)
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Quoting 1619. Patrap:
www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15

23:11:00Z 21.233N 85.800W 486.9 mb

(~ 14.38 inHg) 6,072 meters

(~ 19,921 feet) - 299 meters

(~ 981 feet) From 219° at 108 knots

(From the SW at ~ 124.2 mph)


I may not be reading this right, but does that say 124 mph winds?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol


23:11:00Z 21.233N 85.800W 486.9 mb
(~ 14.38 inHg) 6,072 meters
(~ 19,921 feet) - 299 meters
(~ 981 feet) From 219° at 108 knots
(From the SW at ~ 124.2 mph) -0.0°C
(~ 32.0°F) -5.6°C
(~ 21.9°F) 125 knots
(~ 143.8 mph)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1632. Dakster
Never under-estimate the 'K' storm... Assuming it makes it to named status...

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1631. Drakoen
Quoting 1625. louisianaboy444:


It must have some kind of feedback issue because for some reason it always takes storm in the Central/Eastern Gulf towards Florida :p


That's simply because of its dependence of the GFS model, Beell loves the GFS and Drak is not too far behind.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30557
WOW!!!!!!!
lt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 249° at 108 knots (From the WSW at ~ 124.2 mph
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4664
1629. beell
Quoting 1611. Drakoen:


Over the entire season thus far? That's bad. Nothing better than the Drak-beell consensus model.


Flat-out truth, more than once or twice.
:)

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Rapid Scan Into Darkness
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1627. Pallis
Quoting 1518. hydrus:
If 97L does intensify to a strong tropical storm, its forward motion would increase some, and bring it in on the northern gulf coast..jmo..Outflow is looking a tad better..
That thing in New England that has been leeching the midstream has finally gone to Nova Scotia. 97 organizes every night, and falls apart in the day. The only difference about this afternoon and yesterday's is 8MH to 10 MH. Oh, and it is appearing to get a sexy round shape. Is there some warm water around Cozumel right now?
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Hey at least we now have more to track and talk about than the GW arguments and bickering lol!
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Quoting 1611. Drakoen:


Over the entire season thus far? That's bad. Nothing better than the Drak-beell consensus model.


It must have some kind of feedback issue because for some reason it always takes storm in the Central/Eastern Gulf towards Florida :p
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1624. Patrap
Purty Breezy thru the Straits seems
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
I know one poster on here is saying rip to 97L but I think it is looking pretty good tonight. I am wondering if I have anything much to worry about in NE Florida with this storm based on current possible path?
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Quoting 1608. MississippiWx:


We called this one this morning.


Didn't some guy earlier say that an eyewall feature was forming LOL
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1621. barbamz
Quoting 1591. Articuno:

Like Ernesto?
Hope not.


Had to look up Ernesto 2012 in Wiki (too many tropical storms for me to remember them all by heart, lol). It finally made it to a Cat 2. But it had much more time and space than 97L.
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1620. Patrap
Not a lawyer?

; 0
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
1619. Patrap
www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15

23:11:00Z 21.233N 85.800W 486.9 mb

(~ 14.38 inHg) 6,072 meters

(~ 19,921 feet) - 299 meters

(~ 981 feet) From 219° at 108 knots

(From the SW at ~ 124.2 mph)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting 1613. Patrap:
Freud was right seems.

; )


Who's Freud ? JK :-)

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We are all wishcasters inside. I guess.
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1616. JLPR2
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING...

Land friction might finally give 97L a well defined LLC.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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