97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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1766. SLU
Quoting 1730. Gearsts:
And remember that thing south of PR that split on 2? ;)


Sure, why not?
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18Z HWRF
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TXNT25 KNES 030000
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 02/2345Z

C. 20.1N

D. 85.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...COULD NOT DISCERN A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IN 2304Z SSMIS
IMAGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FIX POSITION. FINAL VIS IMAGES SHOWED AN
IRREGULAR CDO MEASURING 1.25 DEGREES WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. PT
AGREES WHILE MET IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Quoting 1758. EyEtoEyE:
Who will get to Florida first Atlas , or Karen ?



Atlas may shrug...
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Winter Storm Atlas Forecast: Snow to Impact Montana, Idaho, Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota, Western Nebraska

October 2, 2013

Winter Storm Atlas will wring out wet snow, heavy for some, in parts of the northern Rockies and parts of the northern Plains.

WOW!!!
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Quoting 1752. EyEtoEyE:
. Totally agree ! Thank you !


You want this bad! :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
Who will get to Florida first Atlas , or Karen ?
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A neat study completed by NCAR on Sandy. Just released yesterday.

Link
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Quoting 1748. sar2401:

I was thinking the watch (we have a watch, right?) should go from New Orleans to Key West. With all those years of Rocket Fuel energy built up in the Gulf, we just can't be too careful. I understand back-to school sales weren't too good this year, so I'm sure retailers could use the boost as well. :-)


Halloween sales are down also. :(
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
If the NAM ends up true, Atlas will be historic for the Dakotas region. Over four feet of snow is crazy even in the peak winter months.

Thankfully the NAM will, with very little doubt, be wrong.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30297
I love winter storm!!!
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Wow its been an interesting day!! I've been watching this thing all day.
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Quoting 1749. Hurricane1956:
Actually nobody here knows where this system will end up!!!,to be honest myself I don't trust the Models at all this time of year,this is a huge system.Once it hit land or near by let's said by Friday afternoon,then I will said the Models were right taking this system straight up North,I learned years ago that this early in the game where the models said it will make landfall it's usually wrong,so you are right Tampa should monitor this storm,if the system slow down and catch up with the strong front coming down it will go into the West coast of Florida (any other conclusion in my opinion is Hearsay).
. Totally agree ! Thank you !
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Quoting 1748. sar2401:

I was thinking the watch (we have a watch, right?) should go from New Orleans to Key West. With all those years of Rocket Fuel energy built up in the Gulf, we just can't be too careful. I understand back-to school sales weren't too good this year, so I'm sure retailers could use the boost as well. :-)


There is no "official" watch/warning until 97L gets renumbered.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
Quoting 1744. EyEtoEyE:
. Are you really positive about that!
Actually nobody here knows where this system will end up!!!,to be honest myself I don't trust the Models at all this time of year,this is a huge system.Once it hit land or near by let's said by Friday afternoon,then I will said the Models were right taking this system straight up North,I learned years ago that this early in the game where the models said it will make landfall it's usually wrong,so you are right Tampa should monitor this storm,if the system slow down and catch up with the strong front coming down it will go into the West coast of Florida (any other conclusion in my opinion is Hearsay).
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1748. sar2401
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Key West...30-40% chance of rain.

I was thinking the watch (we have a watch, right?) should go from New Orleans to Key West. With all those years of Rocket Fuel energy built up in the Gulf, we just can't be too careful. I understand back-to school sales weren't too good this year, so I'm sure retailers could use the boost as well. :-)
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1747. Mikla
A good look at the size and structure of 97L... link
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Quoting 1744. EyEtoEyE:
. Are you really positive about that!


Yes. You might get some rain, but that is not unusual during early fall.
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Quoting 1741. GeoffreyWPB:


Good news! You are safe!
. Are you really positive about that!
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1742. sar2401
Quoting SLU:
I see no reason why 97L couldn't have been renumbered to a TD and the NHC could have waited until the circulation tightened up to name it.

Weaker systems have been given names before eg TS Emily 2011.




From looking a peak flight level winds, why do you think that should have made a difference of if the NHC moved up to a TD? The NHC considers a lot of parameters before it classifies a storm based on what the HH's report back. I'm certainly not qualified to look at all of them (even assuming I had access to them all) and then believe I know more the the NHC when it comes to tropical storms.

It's always interested me that bloggers routinely complain if a storm is not either classified fast enough or moved up in wind speed after a HH flight. I don't believe I've ever read a complaint like "Category 3???...no way, that thing is no more than a category 1". Must be some kind of built-in expectation that didn't get met.
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Quoting 1737. EyEtoEyE:
. Tampa area!


Good news! You are safe!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
Quoting 1725. EyEtoEyE:
So anywhere from Key West to Mobile should be on the lookout !


Key West...30-40% chance of rain.
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YEA, Frankie's back with his forecast for Winter Storm Atlas !!

Link
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Forecasted by Weather Channel or really by NHC: Swirl over Wash State will be called ATLAS the first winter storm

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Quoting 1732. GeoffreyWPB:


Where do you live?
. Tampa area!
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Hmmmm! a named winter storm at the same time as a Tropical one (maybe). Must be 2013.
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Quoting 1727. taco2me61:
I will say this about 97L or soon to be Tropical Storm Karen,
Tropical Storm Watches go up tomorrow for the North Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.... Because they are still not sure where she is going....

Just my opinion

Taco :o)
. Truthfully TS warnings and watches should be for Mobile to Key West!
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Quoting 1730. Gearsts:
And remember that thing south of PR that split on 2? ;)


Yeah,that thing called Gabrielle was a non event here.
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Quoting 1725. EyEtoEyE:
So anywhere from Key West to Mobile should be on the lookout !


Where do you live?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
Well, the NHC has taken its stance that this does not yet have a well defined enough center/circulation to be classified. No Karen today, most likely. I highly doubt they will classify it before the next recon gets there, which won't be for several hours.

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1730. Gearsts
Quoting 1720. SLU:
I see no reason why 97L couldn't have been renumbered to a TD and the NHC could have waited until the circulation tightened up to name it.

Weaker systems have been given names before eg TS Emily 2011.



And remember that thing south of PR that split on 2? ;)
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1729. barbamz

Guys, Karen yes or no: winter is coming, and with it the auroras :)
Live: Source Alaska, Fairbanks.


Source.
Good night everyone!
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Quoting 1722. Hurricane614:


Good one!

Thank you, thank you very much. This storm does have a closed circulation, to me it looks similar to Gabrielle upon when it was first named.
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I will say this about 97L or soon to be Tropical Storm Karen,
Tropical Storm Watches go up tomorrow for the North Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.... Because they are still not sure where she is going....

Just my opinion

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3182
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS EXTENSIVELY
INVESTIGATED THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND DETERMINED THAT THE SYSTEM DID NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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So anywhere from Key West to Mobile should be on the lookout !
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alot of people here have 40 to 50 flashlights from walmart over the past 9 years and still waiting to use them
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1723. sar2401
Quoting Stormlover16:
Honestly, I feel like 97-L should move out of pre-k....get it? ;)

Uhh...no
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Quoting 1717. Stormlover16:
Honestly, I feel like 97-L should move out of pre-k....get it? ;)


Good one!
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1721. Broward
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER METRO BROWARD AND NORTHERN MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES.
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1720. SLU
I see no reason why 97L couldn't have been renumbered to a TD and the NHC could have waited until the circulation tightened up to name it.

Weaker systems have been given names before eg TS Emily 2011.



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1719. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hook.. line.. sinker..

Hey, I have to go fishing sometimes. :-)
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1718. FOREX
Quoting 1715. MississippiWx:


This isn't horseshoes or hand grenades. Was it a tropical cyclone or not? :-)


not
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Honestly, I feel like 97-L should move out of pre-k....get it? ;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.