97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

Share this Blog
63
+

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1816 - 1766

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Quoting 1797. StormTrackerScott:
Models shifting east! Karen at 11pm


The models are not shifting East.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1804. Ameister12:

Hmm... We must be having an outbreak of them here in Ohio. They have been relentless this summer/fall.

I see one at least everyday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1814. sar2401
Quoting taco2me61:

I'm not sure where but at a little after 6pm tonight we had a half inch of rain in west Mobile

Taco :o)

Seriously? We had a high of 92 and a few high clouds today. That sat pic makes it look like SE Alabama is getting some kind of weather while you're not getting any. It looked like earlier that the Mobile area was picking up some showers from what would be an outer rain band, assuming we had a hurricane south of us.

Actually, for my funnin' around with 97L, it make me slightly nervous. For something which has been hanging around for three days and still has no real COC, it has too much energy associated with it. It looks like it's about to split the goalposts and get into the BOC...in October. If this had been a normal October, I'd be a lot nervous. This year, the stable, dry air, easterlies, and wind shear just have taken their toll on storms that are ending up where 97L is headed, and I just think it's going to be another disappointing TS, although not too disappointing, as long as can hold together long enough to bring us some rain. You guys over in Mobile keep stealing ours. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13391
1813. GetReal


Will that frontal boundary arrive in time to make Karen make a NE turn towards the W Florida Panhandle? At 48 hours the front is still caught up in extreme NW Texas, Oklahoma Panhandle area.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
1812. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1796. cajunkid:
It must have been a good mid-level circulation on the vis sat earlier today, or a mirage.
naw its just 2013 itself in general
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jerry clinging barely to TS at 00z Best Track.

AL, 11, 2013100300, , BEST, 0, 294N, 424W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 0, 0, 1017, 225, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well if you think about it we did have A Day after tomorrow event happen last year.

In 2012 the climate was warm and violent with many unforgiving thunderstorms and relentless heat.Then huge storm like in the movie (Sandy) came and made huge impacts to the mid-atlantic and northeast(ironic) and caused extensive surge damage in N.Y.C along with New Jersey.It was also a blizzard further away with hurricane force winds.

I just thought the reality and the movie were interesting.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
Quoting 1807. SouthDadeNative:
Yes. The White House is full 0f them.


XD That made my night.

Anyways, I have lots of stink bugs around my house
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1808. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1797. StormTrackerScott:
Models shifting east! Karen at 11pm



Hi Scott...thought you only posted from work. Watching through the day, a hard right or panhandle hit?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11011
1805. FOREX
Quoting 1797. StormTrackerScott:
Models shifting east! Karen at 11pm



Is Panama City still in the "be alert" zone?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1508
Quoting 1795. Articuno:

I always do.

Hmm... We must be having an outbreak of them here in Ohio. They have been relentless this summer/fall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looked due East of Cozumel all day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1790. FOREX:


Where does this info come from?


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Inside the Megastorm starts in a few minutes on PBS on the east coast.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting 1760. AussieStorm:
Freak ‘twister’ causes damage in Clonfert, Ireland



Wow... I wonder what experience Ireland has with tornadoes in the past
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well recon did not find a well defined closed low, so no classification tonight. I will admit, I was wrong when I mentioned on my facebook that 97L would be classified tonight. However, DMAX may settle every problem that the invest had developing earlier. We should have a named storm system tomorrow, potentially a few hours of steady strengthening until it reaches the westerlies in the GOM. After that, who knows.. I just don't see a system in October moving towards LA when we have a troughing pattern in place. A front should curve this towards either the Panhandle or the big bend. Pretty similar track from Andrea earlier this year. It's gonna be an interesting weekend for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just like I said, NO KAREN TODAY
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Models shifting east! Karen at 11pm

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It must have been a good mid-level circulation on the vis sat earlier today, or a mirage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1789. Ameister12:
I'm sorry, this is a little off topic, but is anyone else having a major problem with stink bugs this year?

I always do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeahhh soo like I was saying about the initialization of the models earlier. :-)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1793. beell
Quoting 1767. sar2401:

What's all that stuff over Alabama? I just went outside and looked and all I see are stars. There's a little mist being reported at Mobile, which shows up as being clear on that satellite view, and every other station in Alabama is reporting clear.

I sometimes wonder where the data for those giant satellite pics come from


Ever heard of "radar bloom"?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1745. sunlinepr:

Oh god.. Kronos sounds like it's gonna be bad. ._.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1791. GetReal
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
1790. FOREX
Quoting 1784. Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100300, , BEST, 0, 204N, 860W, 35, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


Where does this info come from?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1508
I'm sorry, this is a little off topic, but is anyone else having a major problem with stink bugs this year? It's become a daily routine to look around my house to get them back outside.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1784. Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100300, , BEST, 0, 204N, 860W, 35, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Translation to that: 97L has 40 Mph winds with a minimum pressure of 1006 MB.

She's getting closer to getting a name...

Goodnight Everyone.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1146
Quoting 1786. beell:




Our ability to post inane one-liners would be greatly enhanced.


Yes, I love the government putting metal particles in storms!

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11011
1786. beell
Quoting 1773. PensacolaDoug:



I suggested last year that they use Comic Book villains. The Kingpin, Mr Freeze, Iceman...etc..


Quoting 1774. sunlinepr:



Our ability to post inane one-liners would be greatly enhanced.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1785. GetReal
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100300, , BEST, 0, 204N, 860W, 35, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1778. taco2me61:

I'm not sure where but at a little after 6pm tonight we had a half inch of rain in west Mobile

Taco :o)


I'm just east of Tillman's Corner and we have had a light drizzle off and on since about 6pm. No real rain to speak of.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1782. sar2401
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Actually nobody here knows where this system will end up!!!,to be honest myself I don't trust the Models at all this time of year,this is a huge system.Once it hit land or near by let's said by Friday afternoon,then I will said the Models were right taking this system straight up North,I learned years ago that this early in the game where the models said it will make landfall it's usually wrong,so you are right Tampa should monitor this storm,if the system slow down and catch up with the strong front coming down it will go into the West coast of Florida (any other conclusion in my opinion is Hearsay).

I have absolutely no idea what that paragraph meant except models are usually wrong and Tampa and the west coast of Florida have something to do with each other.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13391
1781. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1780. barbamz
Quoting 1760. AussieStorm:
Freak %u2018twister%u2019 causes damage in Clonfert, Ireland



Wow. All due to this southwesterly streaming. With this good night!


Saved image:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1767. sar2401:

What's all that stuff over Alabama? I just went outside and looked and all I see are stars. There's a little mist being reported at Mobile, which shows up as being clear on that satellite view, and every other station in Alabama is reporting clear.

I sometimes wonder where the data for those giant satellite pics come from

I'm not sure where but at a little after 6pm tonight we had a half inch of rain in west Mobile

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night everyone. 97-L doing really good tonight but we will see if it holds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1775. SLU
Quoting 1742. sar2401:

From looking a peak flight level winds, why do you think that should have made a difference of if the NHC moved up to a TD? The NHC considers a lot of parameters before it classifies a storm based on what the HH's report back. I'm certainly not qualified to look at all of them (even assuming I had access to them all) and then believe I know more the the NHC when it comes to tropical storms.

It's always interested me that bloggers routinely complain if a storm is not either classified fast enough or moved up in wind speed after a HH flight. I don't believe I've ever read a complaint like "Category 3???...no way, that thing is no more than a category 1". Must be some kind of built-in expectation that didn't get met.


Well i'm not putting down the NHC. Just saying that the system is a big enough threat to land that it could have been renumbered so that persons would start to take it more seriously instead of waiting for it to get closer to land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1769. beell:


With a list like that, it's just a small step to:

Aladdin
Beavis
Chicken Little
Donald
Eeyore
Felix
Goofy
Happy
...and so on and so forth.


(gave up on "I")

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1769. beell:


With a list like that, it's just a small step to:

Aladdin
Beavis
Chicken Little
Donald
Eeyore
Felix
Goofy
Happy
...and so on and so forth.



I suggested last year that they use Comic Book villains. The Kingpin, Mr Freeze, Iceman...etc..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1763. PensacolaDoug:



Atlas may shrug...


Ayn Rand was an interesting lady. Though she caved a little at the end of her life.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11011
Looks like Nebraska's getting some serious weather. Some flash flood warnings issued, as well as a severe thunderstorm warning

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1770. GetReal
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
1769. beell
Quoting 1745. sunlinepr:


With a list like that, it's just a small step to:

Aladdin
Beavis
Chicken Little
Donald
Eeyore
Felix
Goofy
Happy
...and so on and so forth.


(gave up on "I")
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1767. sar2401
Quoting Mikla:
A good look at the size and structure of 97L... link

What's all that stuff over Alabama? I just went outside and looked and all I see are stars. There's a little mist being reported at Mobile, which shows up as being clear on that satellite view, and every other station in Alabama is reporting clear.

I sometimes wonder where the data for those giant satellite pics come from
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13391
1766. SLU
Quoting 1730. Gearsts:
And remember that thing south of PR that split on 2? ;)


Sure, why not?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1816 - 1766

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.