97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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What time will the dropsond data from the HH go into the models?
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1865. beell
Quoting 1854. GeoffreyWPB:
Winter Storm Atlas: Why We Named It
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/news/why-we-named-wint er-storm-atlas-20131002#XxLtjBVTZ9KOFdBl.99


Naming Winter storms probably works great with hashtags
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Hey guys!.Wanna know where all your money is going?
Link
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17658
1863. ncstorm
Bryan Norcross
Time to pay attention to what's going on in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Karen is about to form, and it's moving toward the Gulf of Mexico. It's not clear what the final outcome is going to be. There are conflicting signals.

On one hand, the system is clearly intensifying in a favorable upper-air environment and over extremely warm water. This favorable situation will likely continue for the next day or two allowing the system to intensify into at least a moderately healthy tropical storm heading generally north.

On the other hand, the water in the eastern Gulf has limited heat content. (It's plenty warm, but that warm water doesn't extend far below the surface so cold water gets stirred up easily.) There is dry air over much of the Gulf, which may limit how quickly it can intensify. And probably more importantly, the upper winds are somewhere between less favorable and very unfavorable for a tropical system in the northern Gulf. And, they are expected to stay that way.

The computer models show the system reaching the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle over the weekend. The models that make the system stronger, like the U.S. GFS model, take it toward the Panhandle. The models that keep it weaker, like the Euro, take it farther west.

The odds are currently leaning toward something in between with the system strengthening and becoming fairly scary late tomorrow into Friday and then weakening somewhere between a little and a lot before reaching the coast. Under the current scenario, the upper winds don't look favorable enough over the northern Gulf to support a strong tropical storm or hurricane. But, remember, it doesn't take much to generate storm surge in the northern Gulf. So for now, heads up. Action might be required somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast as soon as Friday.

We should have a better idea tomorrow when the system comes together a bit more, and the accurate wind profile and location of the lowest pressure are put into the models. Stay tuned.
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Quoting 1841. tropicfreak:
This at one point looked better than Ingrid... but this is by far the best looking invest of the season.



Certainly the first non-Atlantic, non-embedded within a monsoonal gyre or surface trough.
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Regardless of how strong it will get, it looks like most of the models have heading somewhere over my area eventually. We could use the rain.
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Quoting 1836. interstatelover7166:
RIP 97L

Stop making these jokes so seriously. It's forMing.
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 567
1859. bwi
I'm not the blog police, but this might be a good time to remind people to please report, ignore, and dislike asinine and/or inaccurate political comments or insults that are off the topic.

Flame away if you want, but I think this blog's comment section is extremely valuable and informative and it is a great shame when fools would attempt to ruin things for those seeking information on the topic of the day. Other great blogs have had to shut down comments, and I hope that doesn't happen here.
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1858. Patrap
The envelope has reached the Straits, inform the Klingon's were sending TEAL 71 into the Neutral Zone.

Get the bloggers in da Bullpen ASAP


We're going to GRO_CON 2

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129446
1857. Thrawst
This is D-Min too.... and there is convection over the supposed COC. I think we are VERY close to getting Karen, if not already.
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1909
Quoting 1841. tropicfreak:
This at one point looked better than Ingrid... but this is by far the best looking invest of the season.

The thing is that it actually looks like a tropical storm.
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1855. hydrus
Actually looks like a tropical storm now.
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Quoting 1846. VAbeachhurricanes:


Cayman National Hurricane Center

I didn't say where I got it from so don't say that until if and when I say that
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Quoting 1842. GeoffreyWPB:


My wish is for a named winter storm named Spagettio's.



Uh Oh!
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1851. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys just popping in and out I say 97L is now TS Karen 40-45MPH with pressures of 1006mb maybe as low as 1005mb location I'd say near 20.5N 85.5W moving N of due NW

You popped in too late. NHC says it's a disturbance. There's still no defined COC. It's moving west to the Yucatan. The probability of 97L doing anything more to the Caymans than it's already done is rapidly receding. It looks like Casey has struck out...again. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049
Quoting 1835. DestinWatcher:
Still a few days out, so models have not yet settled down. However, as of today (Oct 2) Destin, Florida seems to be in the cone. The Destin Seafood Festival is this weekend, so there are a lot of folks hoping that the models are wrong and this thing goes somewhere else!


If I didn't have a SAT test to take Saturday, I would try to get my family to go down to Destin. One of my favorite places to vacation at.
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1849. palmpt
Quoting 1836. interstatelover7166:
RIP 97L


Where do the silly RIP's come from? It's time to get serious about this storm. In the next day we will see if it blows up or not.
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1848. beell
Quoting 1840. aquak9:

STD Viagra?

(runs)


You raise an interesting point but you left a "after 4 hrs" just laying there.
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1847. GetReal
Quoting 1838. BRWeatherGeek:
Can someone post the steering maps?





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Quoting 1839. Hurricanes101:


please post where you are getting this info from.


Cayman National Hurricane Center
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1845. Thrawst
Quoting 1798. SuperStorm093:
Just like I said, NO KAREN TODAY


What is shouting that you were right on a weather blog full of people that don't care who is right and who is wrong, gonna do? Even more discouraging is that you have to say, "just like I said". I'd stop being so stuck up if I were you. It does you no good and in fact it will make you lose respect here on this blog.

Sorry. Rant over. Move on. :)
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1909
1844. Broward

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Quoting 1836. interstatelover7166:
RIP 97L


wow, just wow
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Quoting 1826. beell:


Ok, you're an exception-you will not need any enhancements to post inane one-liners.
:)

Maybe named after advertiser's products?

Winter Storm Sheraton?
Summer's Eve?
Duracell?


My wish is for a named winter storm named Spagettio's.
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This at one point looked better than Ingrid... but this is by far the best looking invest of the season.

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1840. aquak9
Quoting 1826. beell:


Ok, you're an exception-you will not need any enhancements to post inane one-liners.
:)

Maybe named after advertiser's products?

Winter Storm Sheraton?
Summer's Eve?
Duracell?

STD Viagra?

(runs)
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Quoting 1834. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys just popping in and out I say 97L is now TS Karen 40-45MPH with pressures of 1006mb maybe as low as 1005mb location I'd say near 20.5N 85.5W moving N of due NW


please post where you are getting this info from.
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Can someone post the steering maps?
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1837. sar2401
Quoting Matt1989:

If anything they have shifted West from previous runs. Just don't like seeing people post false information

You are correct, although none of the models are very trustworthy at this stage of the game. I'm sure if you lived in, say, Orlando, and wanted to wishcast a storm your way, there's a madel buried in that mass of spaghetti, I'm sure there's one in there that shifted ever so slightly east.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049
Quoting 1731. MAweatherboy1:
Well, the NHC has taken its stance that this does not yet have a well defined enough center/circulation to be classified. No Karen today, most likely. I highly doubt they will classify it before the next recon gets there, which won't be for several hours.

RIP 97L
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Still a few days out, so models have not yet settled down. However, as of today (Oct 2) Destin, Florida seems to be in the cone. The Destin Seafood Festival is this weekend, so there are a lot of folks hoping that the models are wrong and this thing goes somewhere else!
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Hey guys just popping in and out I say 97L is now TS Karen 40-45MPH with pressures of 1006mb maybe as low as 1005mb location I'd say near 20.5N 85.5W moving N of due NW
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Quoting 1827. Matt1989:

If anything they have shifted West from previous runs. Just don't like seeing people post false information

The models will shift back and forth for the next few days nothing really surprising yet.
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Quoting 1817. Broward:
looks to me like this may be close to the very tip of cuba which will move the models

right


No. Steering currents are steering currents. The models may shift a bit, but are basically on track.
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1831. GetReal
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Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2013 23:50:00 UTC

Winds: SSE (150°) at 25.3 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (113°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.78 in and risingAir Temperature: 82.0 F
Dew Point: 77.9 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F
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1829. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1810. washingtonian115:
Well if you think about it we did have A Day after tomorrow event happen last year.

In 2012 the climate was warm and violent with many unforgiving thunderstorms and relentless heat.Then huge storm like in the movie (Sandy) came and made huge impacts to the mid-atlantic and northeast(ironic) and caused extensive surge damage in N.Y.C along with New Jersey.It was also a blizzard further away with hurricane force winds.

I just thought the reality and the movie were interesting.



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1828. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:


XD That made my night.

Anyways, I have lots of stink bugs around my house

Our supply of love bugs finally died off. I don't know what the deal was this year but, if you drove a few miles, you had to stop to clean the windshield.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049
Quoting 1821. FOREX:


Here we go again.

If anything they have shifted West from previous runs. Just don't like seeing people post false information
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1826. beell
Quoting 1787. GeoffreyWPB:


Yes, I love the government putting metal particles in storms!



Ok, you're an exception-you will not need any enhancements to post inane one-liners.
:)

Maybe named after advertiser's products?

Winter Storm Sheraton?
Summer's Eve?
Duracell?
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Quoting 1809. Doppler22:


XD That made my night.

Anyways, I have lots of stink bugs around my house


Northern problem, maybe?

Me down here in the South is all good and clear. Not stinky, either. Spiders actually are having a good time, got some wicked orb-weavers on my porch and a rare American Bolas spider in my tulip tree currently.

Anyways, weather: had some sprinkles today, generally clouding, with some crepuscular rays, and one nicely tilted updraft within one cloud during the afternoon.
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1824. ncstorm


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1823. GetReal
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We should have Karen by tomorrow morning.
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1821. FOREX
Quoting 1816. Matt1989:

The models are not shifting East.


Here we go again.
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1820. sar2401
Quoting GetReal:


Will that frontal boundary arrive in time to make Karen make a NE turn towards the W Florida Panhandle? At 48 hours the front is still caught up in extreme NW Texas, Oklahoma Panhandle area.

No, it won't, as I've been saying for two days. 97L is moving too fast for the front to catch up. If 97L starts to slow significantly as it heads east, then we might have something to watch. Otherwise, it'll be another in a long line of weak and flabby Karen's. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049
Convection has really amped up over the last few hours. Outer banding and convection is subsiding likely due to the overall intensity of the centralized convection. 97L looks to miss the Yucatan and move through the channel.
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1818. txjac
Quoting 1804. Ameister12:

Hmm... We must be having an outbreak of them here in Ohio. They have been relentless this summer/fall.



What part of Ohio Ameister12?
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1817. Broward
looks to me like this will be close to the very tip of cuba when it passes.. which will move the models right

right
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Quoting 1797. StormTrackerScott:
Models shifting east! Karen at 11pm


The models are not shifting East.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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