97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

Share this Blog
63
+

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2016 - 1966

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

2016. Patrap


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1985. allancalderini:
You know scott I have always or almost always believe your posts to be good,but saying this will be a hurricane tomorrow is a little bit crazy is not even a tropical storm right now might be later but I don`t believe it will be a hurricane tomorrow.You are letting this system to dominate you.



He's been making these ridiculous predictions all day...it was supposed to be TS last night....according to his forecasts...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1991. SFLWeatherman:
Will we get a TS at 11PM
A. yes
B. NO


B

We could get a TD though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon departs in a little over a half hour to see if this has become a tropical cyclone since the last mission. The fact that it's developed and is maintaining a CDO makes me believe it has a well-defined and closed center, but we'll see.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
2012. palmpt
Quoting 2004. FunnelVortex:
What did I miss over the past few hours?

Any drama, trolls, or stupid posts?


Zero... Anyone say GW? Not... Thank goodness for something to talk about!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2011. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
if it can breed feeders off the warm waters with high TCHP it may become quite scary looking
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2007. Patrap:
Just 1.

: )
What does that means.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
Quoting 2000. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yep just trailing into the shallow waters it will back around due n just as she sways off the ne coast of yuc with her feet just in the water out into the gulf she goes


We may see a little short term WNW before it starts to swing off to the N based upon current steering
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting 1991. SFLWeatherman:
Will we get a TS at 11PM
A. yes
B. NO


C. Maybe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2007. Patrap
Just 1.

: )

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1963. GatorWX:
Upper shear:



There may be some shearing, but hardly formidable as an inhibitor to development, especially with an anticyclone. 20 kts is not that bad, and may be relative only with the charting. Loops indicate a slowly continued organization, also not depicting disruptive shearing.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 2002. kmanislander:


It's been a fun day though. Not sure I will be up for the HH run :-)


Me either. I was off work today, so I got to stick around. Not going to have that privilege tonight/tomorrow. Lol.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
What did I miss over the past few hours?

Any drama, trolls, or stupid posts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SSD just moved the low to 20N 86W. Obviously still disorganized. Playing a game of find the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1999. MississippiWx:


Yep. We'll either succeed or go down together again. Lol.


It's been a fun day though. Not sure I will be up for the HH run :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting 1991. SFLWeatherman:
Will we get a TS at 11PM
A. yes
B. NO


B.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2000. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1978. kmanislander:
Good evening all

97L is a little deceptive this evening. While the cloud deck suggests a due N motion the surface low seems to be located on the NW side of the convective blow up near 20.8 N and 86.5 W and displaced to the W of the deep convection.

The current track appears to be taking it just to the N of Cozumel and over the N tip of the Yucatan. Satellite loop imagery suggests due N through the Yucatan channel but I do not believe that the center is actually underneath that ball of convection.

Take a look at the Shortwave loop below at the coordinates I have suggested.



yep just trailing into the shallow waters it will back around due n just as she sways off the ne coast of yuc with her feet just in the water out into the gulf she goes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1989. kmanislander:


We're in this together again :-)


Yep. We'll either succeed again or go down together. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1998. xcool
02/2345 UTC 20.1N 85.3W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Let's stick to the facts, please. A strengthening system does not mean that it will automatically move more eastwards. That's not how it works. Motion is generally northwest as evidenced by current steering charts.




Does anyone ever look at a sfc map? There is 1016mb of high pressure over the northeastern GoM. New motion, at best, would be more northerly for some time. I can tell you, now, that unless it deepens into a major (not likely) it will not be landfalling in Big Bend under the current setup, and especially not with the lagging CONUS front.



Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 1991. SFLWeatherman:
Will we get a TS at 11PM
A. yes
B. NO
obviously b lol
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 1991. SFLWeatherman:
Will we get a TS at 11PM
A. yes
B. NO
A.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
1994. Broward
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM EDT


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOODING: HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE DEVELOP AND SPREAD ASHORE FROM
BISCAYNE BAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE REACHED THE 6 TO 8 INCH
RANGE WITHIN A 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISED AREA.
THIS HAS LED TO WATER ENTERING STRUCTURES...IMPASSABLE ROADS AND
FLOODED VEHICLES. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1993. FOREX
Quoting 1991. SFLWeatherman:
Will we get a TS at 11PM
A. yes
B. NO


b
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1978. kmanislander:
Good evening all

97L is a little deceptive this evening. While the cloud deck suggests a due N motion the surface low seems to be located on the NW side of the convective blow up near 20.8 N and 86.5 W and displaced to the W of the deep convection.

The current track appears to be taking it just to the N of Cozumel and over the N tip of the Yucatan. Satellite loop imagery suggests due N through the Yucatan channel but I do not believe that the center is actually underneath that ball of convection.

Take a look at the Shortwave loop below at the coordinates I have suggested.

Looks fair enough to me. The wind on the 056 buoy has been SSE for the past 10 hours as well which would make sense that it is just on the NE tip of Cozumel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Will we get a TS at 11PM
A. yes
B. NO
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
1990. GatorWX
Quoting 1978. kmanislander:
Good evening all

97L is a little deceptive this evening. While the cloud deck suggests a due N motion the surface low seems to be located on the NW side of the convective blow up near 20.8 N and 86.5 W and displaced to the W of the deep convection.

The current track appears to be taking it just to the N of Cozumel and over the N tip of the Yucatan. Satellite loop imagery suggests due N through the Yucatan channel but I do not believe that the center is actually underneath that ball of convection.

Take a look at the Shortwave loop below at the coordinates I have suggested.



That's exactly what what I was thinkin'.... Kind of lonely over on that side.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 1983. MississippiWx:


Totally agree.


We're in this together again :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1988. beell
Quoting 1960. MississippiWx:


Stop it with your reasonable posts. This is a quickly deepening storm.

;-)


Lookin' better though. Morning guess was aligned (stacked) by this evening and a TS by Thursday evening.

First part looks on schedule. Naming may be ahead of schedule.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1987. Pallis
Quoting 1955. Terradad:
Hello. Could a stronger system disrupt the shear in the N Gulf? Or will the strength of the system have no impact on the shear? Thanks for any replies.
Many times amateur forecasters forget that the shear recorded may actually be created, influenced, or persuaded by the actual storm approaching.It is kind of like not seeing the forest for the trees. Yesterday it was dry air will not allow intensification. Today it is wind sheer and computer model dogma. Fact is this thing is moving, and intensifying, and only those who watch it know about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1986. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1941. StormTrackerScott:


A cane tomorrow IMO
You know scott I have always or almost always believe your posts to be good,but saying this will be a hurricane tomorrow is a little bit crazy is not even a tropical storm right now might be later but I don`t believe it will be a hurricane tomorrow.You are letting this system to dominate you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1984. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22646
Quoting 1978. kmanislander:
Good evening all

97L is a little deceptive this evening. While the cloud deck suggests a due N motion the surface low seems to be located on the NW side of the convective blow up near 20.8 N and 86.5 W and displaced to the W of the deep convection.

The current track appears to be taking it just to the N of Cozumel and over the N tip of the Yucatan. Satellite loop imagery suggests due N through the Yucatan channel but I do not believe that the center is actually underneath that ball of convection.

Take a look at the Shortwave loop below at the coordinates I have suggested.



Totally agree.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
From what I can tell....it appears that the LLC is finally starting to get better organized but it's not there yet as the main convection is off to its east.....LLC estimated around 21N and 86.2W moving NNW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1981. palmpt
Quoting 1973. SuperStorm093:
thing looked better at dmin lmao. another bust in the making maybe???


This will not be a bust. It's already more organized than most storms this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1953. gordydunnot:
Storm looking better every frame tonight. Developing nicely I believe. it will be further right also, guess Cedar Key Cat1 or 2. No weatherman here, but at this time of year they always seem right of the forecast. The fuel below this storm is going to trump the dry air.
wont be surprised if recon finds 50 mph storm later tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1979. Mikla
Gotta love what happens when the Government shuts down... some of the NOAA sites show this
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening all

97L is a little deceptive this evening. While the cloud deck suggests a due N motion the surface low seems to be located on the NW side of the convective blow up near 20.8 N and 86.5 W and displaced to the W of the deep convection.

The current track appears to be taking it just to the N of Cozumel and over the N tip of the Yucatan. Satellite loop imagery suggests due N through the Yucatan channel but I do not believe that the center is actually underneath that ball of convection.

Take a look at the Shortwave loop below at the coordinates I have suggested.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting 1957. opal92nwf:
Maybe something like this at landfall?
97l won't have that sort of sprawling outflow to the NW due to the trough and associated shear. But, I do think we will end up with a tropical storm with a small, tight core, and a broad, but mainly dry circulation with a few skimpy bands on the eastern half.

There is no major freshwater or surge flood threat here with all this dry air over the continent which will get wrapped into the circulation. Even if this gets to be a hurricane, only a very localized area will receive those winds.

It'll undoubtedly be fun to watch it develop though, especially considering the dullness of this year's season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1976. GatorWX
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 1959. beell:
Possibly a little southerly shear just now impinging on the west side of 97L.

If the obs can be trusted, Surface METARS at Cancun and Cozumel really don't show much sign of deepening since recon left. I am assuming any surface center would not be far off the Yucatan coast. (60-70 nm?)


Shear from what though? I don't see much evidence of it from your loop, but hey, you've been doing this longer than me. :)

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
1974. SirCane
I think the models have got it pegged now. This is not going any further East than Panama City or Destin, FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thing looked better at dmin lmao. another bust in the making maybe???
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
1972. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Buoy readings from the Yucatan Basin

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1970. GatorWX
Quoting 1967. SFLWeatherman:


Getting hammered down there today!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 1955. Terradad:
Hello. Could a stronger system disrupt the shear in the N Gulf? Or will the strength of the system have no impact on the shear? Thanks for any replies.

A strong enough well developed system can create its own atmosphere and stave off UL winds somewhat. Being so late in the season I do not know if it will be strong enough to do that. I doubt it in this case.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1968. Pallis
Quoting 1918. palmpt:


The stronger the more poleward. The determining factor is the speed of the front, which is slower than anticipated.
Poleward would be more eastward in the case of a NW track. geomag.org/models/wdmam.html has some good models, but it takes time to learn how to read them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Quoting Terradad:
Hello. Could a stronger system disrupt the shear in the N Gulf? Or will the strength of the system have no impact on the shear? Thanks for any replies.


The monster trough in the Central Plains will shear the system and inject low PWATS as well, which will probably keep it to a moderate tropical storm at best.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2016 - 1966

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
36 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron