97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2060. GrandCaymanMed:
Salutations to all. 97L has induced a most idiosyncratic impulse within the depths of my subconscious. Now let it be known that I am not the greatest of companions to this impulse. On the contrary, I very much dislike this opprobrious desire within, that perpetual rush within that develops upon seeing a developing cyclone and knowing full well the consequences of a hurricane. I am talking about the internal rush at the thought of experiencing a hurricane, juxtaposed with the reality of the devastation. A thousand plagues upon this vile impulse. Into the depths of my subconscious it shall be buried. I shall let no such Pandora’s box consume my intellect and cloud my judgment, a most sobering occurrence that I have succumbed to in the past. With that said, 97L has a shot at being a tropical storm impacting the gulf coast. Be safe and know thyself. I send you my love, to everyone on here, may you find everlasting peace and bliss in this world.


OOO KKKK.......
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2065. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting 2058. whitewabit:
Possible severe tornado out break ahead of the winter storm in the northern plains states ..

People in those areas should be on alert tomorrow !!


Yeah, this one will bring some fun to us in the Central region.
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Jerry down to TD.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 42.0W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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looks like a little spin offshore cancun...

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Quoting 2055. cat6band:


Pat, is this the most recent?


Those are early runs initialized at 00z. Still waiting on the new model data output. GFS starts coming out in 40 minutes or so.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Salutations to all. 97L has induced a most idiosyncratic impulse within the depths of my subconscious. Now let it be known that I am not the greatest of companions to this impulse. On the contrary, I very much dislike this opprobrious desire within, that perpetual rush within that develops upon seeing a developing cyclone and knowing full well the consequences of a hurricane. I am talking about the internal rush at the thought of experiencing a hurricane, juxtaposed with the reality of the devastation. A thousand plagues upon this vile impulse. Into the depths of my subconscious it shall be buried. I shall let no such Pandora’s box consume my intellect and cloud my judgment, a most sobering occurrence that I have succumbed to in the past. With that said, 97L has a shot at being a tropical storm impacting the gulf coast. Be safe and know thyself. I send you my love, to everyone on here, may you find everlasting peace and bliss in this world.
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Link

radar timelapse out of cancun.You can see the swirl of the possible LLC about 60 miles ESE of there moving NNW
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2058. whitewabit (Mod)
Possible severe tornado out break ahead of the winter storm in the northern plains states ..

People in those areas should be on alert tomorrow !!
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Quoting 2048. cat6band:


Any thoughts on track? A shift west? or East?


Hard to predict the models. It still looks on track to go right over the Northern tip of the Yucatan. The ball of convection everyone is looking at is not the center. It's actually a bit west of there and should graze land. After that, anywhere from extreme SE Louisiana to Western FL Panhandle looks in play.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
I think you got it as usual Kman.
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Quoting 2046. Patrap:




Pat, is this the most recent?
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2054. Pallis
Quoting 1978. kmanislander:
Good evening all

97L is a little deceptive this evening. While the cloud deck suggests a due N motion the surface low seems to be located on the NW side of the convective blow up near 20.8 N and 86.5 W and displaced to the W of the deep convection.

The current track appears to be taking it just to the N of Cozumel and over the N tip of the Yucatan. Satellite loop imagery suggests due N through the Yucatan channel but I do not believe that the center is actually underneath that ball of convection.

Take a look at the Shortwave loop below at the coordinates I have suggested.

O.K. maybe Cozumel will get more than I predicted, but it will pass quickly.
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Off to catch up on Homeland but will stop in again before signing off tonight. Have a good evening until then.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
It is looking like a TC,

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2051. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
97L/XX/XX
MARK
20.35N/86.26W
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2050. GatorWX
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
2049. beell
Catch a fleeting glimpse of a wispy high cloud racing by AOA 20N 93W. Also some of the t-storm tops over the Yucatan Peninsula on the BOC coast. May not be anything-just my normal downcast bias.

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Quoting 2042. MississippiWx:


Wait about another hour or so...


Any thoughts on track? A shift west? or East?
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2047. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 2044. Broward:
more rain coming into Miami now..looks like it will move north into Broward.We had 3 inches here this am before if moved South into Miami.Its like a yo yo >if more comes it will be a mess .They lost dozens of cars at that mall.


TWC says as much as 7 inches of rain has fallen and there is street flooding ..
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2046. Patrap


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Some folks look for answers,
Others look for fights.

Some folks up in treetops,
just looking for their kites.

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2044. Broward
more rain coming into Miami now..looks like it will move north into Broward.We had 3 inches here this am before if moved South into Miami.Its like a yo yo >if more comes it will be a mess .They lost dozens of cars at that mall.
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Quoting 2032. Tropicsweatherpr:
There has not been a renumber on ATCF site so no upgrade at 11 PM.

There won't be any upgrade until recon gets back into 97L and fully investigates it to see if there is a well-defined, closed circulation. The earliest 97L will be upgraded is at 5am.
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Quoting 2036. cat6band:
Any updated tracks yet??


Wait about another hour or so...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting 2020. EyEtoEyE:
It probally get designated Karen at 11!
Quoting 2023. scottsvb:
There is a 0% chance of having a TS at 11pm
FML
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2040. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 2034. avthunder:
What's going on there? Saw the alert on TV. Here in Broward no rain at all. Is this possibly an outer band of the Thing near Yucaton peninsula? Crazy amounts of rain in Dade.
Btw, is it me or does it look like this thing (maybe Karen eventually) is going to miss the Y peninsula and strengthen a bit more than expected?


storms have been training over that area all afternoon ..
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2039. GatorWX
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
A run through CIMMS 00Z indicate that the vort has increased and tightened. It also indicates upper conditions have deteriorated quite a bit. Little convergence to speak of, much less divergence.
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Quoting 2022. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah shove off at the extreme nw point of the ne tip off the yuc

the gulf is not going to be its friend 36 to 48 hrs to do something or the gulf of mexico will


Good thing the downstream conditions will not promote this really ramping up but I think we will see a couple more of these come up from the SW Caribbean before the season is done. The secondary peak is still 8 to 10 days away and October is never to be taken lightly.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Any updated tracks yet??
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Quoting 2019. GatorWX:


I was simply implying it's a bit further from anticyclone than earlier. :)

I try to see if others are with me without saying much.


Don't misunderstand me. Was not disagreeing. :) Only saying that loop-evidenced more organization is really indicative of not really having that much trouble with shearing - at least not for now. There's considerable volatility with this system, dry air, shear, etc. Things can change up or down fairly quickly.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
Quoting 1994. Broward:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM EDT


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOODING: HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE DEVELOP AND SPREAD ASHORE FROM
BISCAYNE BAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE REACHED THE 6 TO 8 INCH
RANGE WITHIN A 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISED AREA.
THIS HAS LED TO WATER ENTERING STRUCTURES...IMPASSABLE ROADS AND
FLOODED VEHICLES. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
What's going on there? Saw the alert on TV. Here in Broward no rain at all. Is this possibly an outer band of the Thing near Yucaton peninsula? Crazy amounts of rain in Dade.
Btw, is it me or does it look like this thing (maybe Karen eventually) is going to miss the Y peninsula and strengthen a bit more than expected?
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2033. FOREX
Quoting 2026. FunnelVortex:


Maybe a TD, but not Karen yet.


The plane leaves at 11, so it won't get a name for several hours after that if it does at all.
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There has not been a renumber on ATCF site so no upgrade at 11 PM.
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Quoting 2026. FunnelVortex:


Maybe a TD, but not Karen yet.
It' s already 40mph.
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2030. GatorWX
What level does cimss analyze mid shear, 500?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
Quoting 2003. ProgressivePulse:
SSD just moved the low to 20N 86W. Obviously still disorganized. Playing a game of find the center.


Actually looking at that shortwave loop again the N coordinate could be anywhere between 20.2 and 20.8. Hard to pin it down using night time shortwave imagery but a track just over or to the N of Cozumel still looks good to me.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2028. GatorWX
Quoting 2019. GatorWX:


I was simply implying it's a bit further from anticyclone than earlier. :)

I try to see if others are with me without saying much.


..would also imply perhaps a slight bit of southerly shear.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
Quoting 2016. Patrap:



Kicked by Garrett Hartley! Nice.
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Quoting 2020. EyEtoEyE:
It probally get designated Karen at 11!


Maybe a TD, but not Karen yet.
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Quoting 1977. FLWeatherFreak91:
97l won't have that sort of sprawling outflow to the NW due to the trough and associated shear. But, I do think we will end up with a tropical storm with a small, tight core, and a broad, but mainly dry circulation with a few skimpy bands on the eastern half.

There is no major freshwater or surge flood threat here with all this dry air over the continent which will get wrapped into the circulation. Even if this gets to be a hurricane, only a very localized area will receive those winds.

It'll undoubtedly be fun to watch it develop though, especially considering the dullness of this year's season.

Yeah, I was thinking that the NW part of the storm in that image (Iwa) might not be as well intact with potential Karen here. But if we got a fast moving storm like Iwa, folks may have to watch out on the right side. Iwa produced over 100mph wind gusts in the Hawaiian islands, and some allegedly up to 120mph.
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2024. GatorWX
FG, lol. This place is great!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
There is a 0% chance of having a TS at 11pm
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2022. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2009. kmanislander:


We may see a little short term WNW before it starts to swing off to the N based upon current steering
yeah shove off at the extreme nw point of the ne tip off the yuc

the gulf is not going to be its friend 36 to 48 hrs to do something or the gulf of mexico will
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2021. palmpt
Quoting 2016. Patrap:




3 points...
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It probally get designated Karen at 11!
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2019. GatorWX
Quoting 2006. moonlightcowboy:


There may be some shearing, but hardly formidable as an inhibitor to development, especially with an anticyclone. 20 kts is not that bad, and may be relative only with the charting. Loops indicate a slowing continued organization, also not depicting disruptive shearing.


I was simply implying it's a bit further from anticyclone than earlier. :)

I try to see if others are with me without saying much.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2386
2018. beell
Quoting 1975. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shear from what though? I don't see much evidence of it from your loop, but hey, you've been doing this longer than me. :)



LOL. Yeah, I started about 5PM this afternoon.
:)

A discernible upper shortwave over LA extending some troughing into the western gulf. In combination with upper flow around the anticyclone. An item in the GFS for several runs.

The RGB (the real deal, lol)is certainly open to interpretation.



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2017. Broward
my pressure is still rising in Fort Lauderdale
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2016. Patrap


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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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