97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2106. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keep....is that the latest NAM?
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2114. Patrap
Thats the Band MGMT, "Kids" Lyrics, not mine.

But thanks anyway.

; )

I like spookie.
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Quoting 2107. avthunder:
It's almost three months until actual winter! Hard to take their naming concept seriously.


Hard to take it seriously regardless what time of year it is.
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97L not looking so hot, hey stormstrackerscott hows that TS coming?
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
2111. GatorWX
I want to go to Bron Yr Aur and write something down.

Down by the seaside...maybe some day again. Sant Pol de Mar was nice. In about 18 months or so perhaps.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Patrap I love your poetry, very beautiful
Lyrics of splendor if they were food i could never b full,
the cow can sometimes be a sa bull,
have I ever pet the sheep's wool,
hallowen is cooming ghost goblin and ghoul
maybe i should have stayed in school :)
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2109. Thrawst
Quoting 2078. Broward:
8.5" so far in South Maimi


Yep its crazy here
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2108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting 2089. AussieStorm:
TWC is off to an early start with naming winter storms...




Last Winter they got to how many names, 26??(correct me if I am wrong)

How many are they going to name this Winter, 36?
It's almost three months until actual winter! Hard to take their naming concept seriously.
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2106. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2105. Patrap
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2104. palmpt
Quoting 2091. LAbonbon:
I think the ambiance of the blog has improved, w/ Terradad's Dead lyrics, GrandCaymanMed's awesome sharing of his awareness of his inner duality, and now palmpt's Macbeth.

Love it! :D


Clearly there is a palatable intellectual capacity above the norm here tonight emboldened by a more focused tropical system discussion. What a pleasure...
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I peg the center slightly NW of the deepest convection and just off the tip of Yucatan right now based on the visible sat
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Quoting 2093. StormTrackerScott:


If 97L stays in the eastern Gulf and not the Central then it's game on as conditions are more favorable there.



Still in the same camp as Dr. JM. There is a chance, but small, and it'll be a struggle.
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Closer to Panhandle?

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Key guys yes I agree with Kman we could certainly see more storms forming in the W Caribbean during the next two months
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by the way max wind gusts to 39 mph on east end grand cayman with 97L


------------------------


Floridaweatherfreak your interpretation is so beautiful I really love it. I feel a connection to nature sometimes, and your statement is just soo so beautiful. Let flowers of unmitigated splendor fly through the air tonight.
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Quoting 2083. StormTrackerScott:
97L is going thru the Channel no land interaction for 97L. Should be Karen when HH'ers arrive. I know I said that earlier.



You don't think shear is severely impacting the western portion of the storm?
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Quoting 2060. GrandCaymanMed:
Salutations to all. 97L has induced a most idiosyncratic impulse within the depths of my subconscious. Now let it be known that I am not the greatest of companions to this impulse. On the contrary, I very much dislike this opprobrious desire within, that perpetual rush within that develops upon seeing a developing cyclone and knowing full well the consequences of a hurricane. I am talking about the internal rush at the thought of experiencing a hurricane, juxtaposed with the reality of the devastation. A thousand plagues upon this vile impulse. Into the depths of my subconscious it shall be buried. I shall let no such Pandora’s box consume my intellect and cloud my judgment, a most sobering occurrence that I have succumbed to in the past. With that said, 97L has a shot at being a tropical storm impacting the gulf coast. Be safe and know thyself. I send you my love, to everyone on here, may you find everlasting peace and bliss in this world.


Wow, while I will not even attempt to express my feelings in such an extraordinary display of wordmanship, I also have this weird mix of emotions. I get a thrill of being in the "cone", although considering my roof has a leak and the roofer won't fix it till next week, the idea of even a mild tropical storm lacks appeal. Yes, the joys of running around the roof in the pouring rain deciding where to deploy the blue tarp, not so great. But most of us would not be here if we did not get a visceral thrill from tropical weather. The realities of the destruction and aftermath definitely takes the edge of that thrill off pretty darn fast.
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2094. GatorWX
One great big riddle to solve, left with just the night. The rising sun brings a new day upon which we all will bring about our judgments once again. Some in bright lights, some in the shadows, we may all do our part to break the silence of the depths that resolve our insight.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 2088. daddyjames:


I agree. Vorticity is still not stacked, dry air is a problem, but shear to the north and west is the biggest challenge yet.



If 97L stays in the eastern Gulf and not the Central then it's game on as conditions are more favorable there.

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Quoting 2087. GrandCaymanMed:
Mississippi no offense taken :) I have learned a lot from reading your posts over the last several months :)


Haha. Good. I'm kind of under the microscope in here today. I've ruffled a few feathers. Glad I could be of help to you. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
I think the ambiance of the blog has improved, w/ Terradad's Dead lyrics, GrandCaymanMed's awesome sharing of his awareness of his inner duality, and now palmpt's Macbeth.

Love it! :D
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2090. Patrap
No renumber from the Big Boyz so I'd doubt to see a Upgrade till TEAL 71 gathers its pass info along after the run.

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TWC is off to an early start with naming winter storms...




Last Winter they got to how many names, 26??(correct me if I am wrong)

How many are they going to name this Winter, 36?
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Quoting 2076. GatorWX:
This isn't the best representation, but I kind of don't think they're going to find anything at 0100 or whenever they really get in there. I bet tomorrow some time before we have 12L, maybe Karen.



I agree. Vorticity is still not stacked, dry air is a problem, but shear to the north and west is the biggest challenge yet.

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Mississippi no offense taken :) I have learned a lot from reading your posts over the last several months :)
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2086. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 2078. Broward:
8.5" so far in South Maimi


would like some of that up here .. we have only had 1 inch of rain since the middle of July .. very dry here ..
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Quoting 2060. GrandCaymanMed:
Salutations to all. 97L has induced a most idiosyncratic impulse within the depths of my subconscious. Now let it be known that I am not the greatest of companions to this impulse. On the contrary, I very much dislike this opprobrious desire within, that perpetual rush within that develops upon seeing a developing cyclone and knowing full well the consequences of a hurricane. I am talking about the internal rush at the thought of experiencing a hurricane, juxtaposed with the reality of the devastation. A thousand plagues upon this vile impulse. Into the depths of my subconscious it shall be buried. I shall let no such Pandora’s box consume my intellect and cloud my judgment, a most sobering occurrence that I have succumbed to in the past. With that said, 97L has a shot at being a tropical storm impacting the gulf coast. Be safe and know thyself. I send you my love, to everyone on here, may you find everlasting peace and bliss in this world.
So basically, you've tried your hardest to ignore your desire to experience devastation as to not bias your forecasting abilities, and even then you believe that 97l has a shot of being a TS at landfall?

I'd have to say I feel the same way ;)
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NHC should be updating any minute soon; I hope that Dr. Avila is on the watch this evening in the event that they upgrade to TD.
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97L is going thru the Channel no land interaction for 97L. Should be Karen when HH'ers arrive. I know I said that earlier.

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This might be the first time since Hurricane Ida in 2009 that a system is coming up out of the Western Caribbean this late in the season to the GOM and be a threat to the Gulf Coast.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 2077. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
aye leave him/her alone having a peaceful night


Didn't think there was anything wrong with that statement...Lol. I said I wanted to be like that poster.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2080. GatorWX
Quoting 2075. GrandCaymanMed:
Thank you GatorWx, you have a very dear heart. I am the HurriPhilosopher, into the depths of subconscious I connect, and interpret 97L in light of this.


touche
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
2079. palmpt
Quoting 2060. GrandCaymanMed:
Salutations to all. 97L has induced a most idiosyncratic impulse within the depths of my subconscious. Now let it be known that I am not the greatest of companions to this impulse. On the contrary, I very much dislike this opprobrious desire within, that perpetual rush within that develops upon seeing a developing cyclone and knowing full well the consequences of a hurricane. I am talking about the internal rush at the thought of experiencing a hurricane, juxtaposed with the reality of the devastation. A thousand plagues upon this vile impulse. Into the depths of my subconscious it shall be buried. I shall let no such Pandora’s box consume my intellect and cloud my judgment, a most sobering occurrence that I have succumbed to in the past. With that said, 97L has a shot at being a tropical storm impacting the gulf coast. Be safe and know thyself. I send you my love, to everyone on here, may you find everlasting peace and bliss in this world.


Life is but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage... And then is heard no more...
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2078. Broward
8.5" so far in South Maimi
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2077. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2071. MississippiWx:


I'll have what he's having. ^^^^^^
aye leave him/her alone having a peaceful night
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2076. GatorWX
This isn't the best representation, but I kind of don't think they're going to find anything at 0100 or whenever they really get in there. I bet tomorrow some time before we have 12L, maybe Karen.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Thank you GatorWx, you have a very dear heart. I am the HurriPhilosopher, into the depths of subconscious I connect, and interpret 97L in light of this.
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Nope...
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2073. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2052. FunnelVortex:
It is looking like a TC,




yeah hopefully not something like this

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Quoting 2060. GrandCaymanMed:
Salutations to all.

I'll take the everlasting peace part. Thanks!
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Quoting 2060. GrandCaymanMed:
Salutations to all. 97L has induced a most idiosyncratic impulse within the depths of my subconscious. Now let it be known that I am not the greatest of companions to this impulse. On the contrary, I very much dislike this opprobrious desire within, that perpetual rush within that develops upon seeing a developing cyclone and knowing full well the consequences of a hurricane. I am talking about the internal rush at the thought of experiencing a hurricane, juxtaposed with the reality of the devastation. A thousand plagues upon this vile impulse. Into the depths of my subconscious it shall be buried. I shall let no such Pandora’s box consume my intellect and cloud my judgment, a most sobering occurrence that I have succumbed to in the past. With that said, 97L has a shot at being a tropical storm impacting the gulf coast. Be safe and know thyself. I send you my love, to everyone on here, may you find everlasting peace and bliss in this world.


I'll have what he's having. ^^^^^^
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2070. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Possible severe tornado out break ahead of the winter storm in the northern plains states ..

People in those areas should be on alert tomorrow !!


Winter Storm Outlook map

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2069. GatorWX
Quoting 2060. GrandCaymanMed:
Salutations to all. 97L has induced a most idiosyncratic impulse within the depths of my subconscious. Now let it be known that I am not the greatest of companions to this impulse. On the contrary, I very much dislike this opprobrious desire within, that perpetual rush within that develops upon seeing a developing cyclone and knowing full well the consequences of a hurricane. I am talking about the internal rush at the thought of experiencing a hurricane, juxtaposed with the reality of the devastation. A thousand plagues upon this vile impulse. Into the depths of my subconscious it shall be buried. I shall let no such Pandora’s box consume my intellect and cloud my judgment, a most sobering occurrence that I have succumbed to in the past. With that said, 97L has a shot at being a tropical storm impacting the gulf coast. Be safe and know thyself. I send you my love, to everyone on here, may you find everlasting peace and bliss in this world.


lol, beautiful!!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...CEASED WITHIN JERRY
THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
CORRESPONDINGLY DROPPED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT
30 KT.

THE INITIAL POSITION CAN BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT RELIABLY AS THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CAN BE SEEN IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY NOW
THAT THE DEEP-LAYER CLOUDINESS HAS SUBSIDED. THE POSITION
INDICATES A CURRENT MOTION OF 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT. JERRY IS LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
GETS PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK MODELS
ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND ARE CENTERED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RESUME TONIGHT DURING THE LATE
NIGHT-EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM. HOWEVER...AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL BRING IT OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS...THROUGH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INTO STRONGER
TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR. THUS THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
REINTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE SLIM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...JERRY
WILL BE TRAVERSING 24C WATERS AND IT SHOULD LOSE DEEP CONVECTION
PERMANENTLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW. JERRY IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY DAY FIVE...THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS COULD OCCUR A DAY OR TWO SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL HURRICANE MODELS AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 29.7N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 30.6N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 32.8N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 33.4N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 36.0N 29.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 38.5N 25.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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Quoting 2060. GrandCaymanMed:
Salutations to all. 97L has induced a most idiosyncratic impulse within the depths of my subconscious. Now let it be known that I am not the greatest of companions to this impulse. On the contrary, I very much dislike this opprobrious desire within, that perpetual rush within that develops upon seeing a developing cyclone and knowing full well the consequences of a hurricane. I am talking about the internal rush at the thought of experiencing a hurricane, juxtaposed with the reality of the devastation. A thousand plagues upon this vile impulse. Into the depths of my subconscious it shall be buried. I shall let no such Pandora’s box consume my intellect and cloud my judgment, a most sobering occurrence that I have succumbed to in the past. With that said, 97L has a shot at being a tropical storm impacting the gulf coast. Be safe and know thyself. I send you my love, to everyone on here, may you find everlasting peace and bliss in this world.


OOO KKKK.......
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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