97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

Share this Blog
63
+

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2216 - 2166

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Quoting 2182. FunnelVortex:


10, I think.


LOL, I passed that a long time ago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.salon.com/2013/10/02/photos_capture_th e_disgusting_reality_of_floridas_water_pollution/

: (

It can be difficult to conceive of just how polluted Florida's estuaries are, even with reports filing in of the record-setting deaths occurring there - including over 60 dolphins and 120 manatees. In order to make the case to Congress that Florida is in a state of disaster, U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Jupiter, is holding a photo contest.

The devastation began earlier this summer, when huge amounts of rainfall overwhelmed Lake Okeechobee's 80-year-old dike in South Florida. Faced with a problem to which there were no clear answers, the Army Corps of Engineers chose to release billions of gallons of polluted water into the St. Lucie River estuary in the east and the Calossahatchee River estuary in the west. Large algae blooms spread, and the delicate balance of salt and fresh water was overwhelmed.

Along with the dolphins and manatees, populations of shellfish, sea grasses and reefs are all suffering, and some even blame recent human deaths on infections acquired in the waters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2198. daddyjames:


You know I jest ;P.

Only cranky in the morning - well, ok, also at night. But only as a ploy to get the little one to stay in bed. ;)


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2209. Dakster:
Never underestimate the K storm, especially when it is forecasted to be in the GOM.


Oh please, you know that's only superstition, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2212. Patrap
Standing by for TEAL 71 to go wheels up from Biloxi.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2210. Gearsts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2209. Dakster
Never underestimate the K storm, especially when it is forecasted to be in the GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2208. MahFL
Quoting 2138. scottsvb:


Wrong !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2207. Gearsts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2206. Dakster
Quoting 2203. daddyjames:


Only if you run really, really fast ;)


I wasn't asking about your last date. ;)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anybody want my portion of "Karen"? She is up for grabs!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2204. Gearsts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2193. Dakster:
Are we gonna get Karen anytime soon??


Only if you run really, really fast ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
2202. Dakster
Quoting 2196. KoritheMan:


Areas from Houma to Apalachicola is my delineated threat area.


im thinking Texas to Maine for the US East Coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NNVMNVMNVM

it weakens it from there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2200. MahFL
Quoting 2193. Dakster:
Are we gonna get Karen anytime soon??


No.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2193. Dakster:
Are we gonna get Karen anytime soon??


Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2188. KoritheMan:


No ire on my end (and I would hope nobody else's). I welcome with open arms this system coming my way. :P

Doesn't seem particularly likely as of now though, unfortunately.


You know I jest ;P.

Only cranky in the morning - well, ok, also at night. But only as a ploy to get the little one to stay in bed. ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
2197. MahFL
Quoting 2131. stormpetrol:
Folks on the Gulf Coast be prepared, potentially dangerous cyclone developing very near the Yucatan Channel as I write this, It doesn't have to be a major to cause serious problems , just saying... Stay safe!


Don't be silly, massive amounts of shear are in front of the invest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2191. palmpt:


Glad you did... May be more like a Mississippi River mouth landfall and then a hard right turn skirting the Mississippi and Alabama coastline and then going inland at the panhandle. So, the entire central coast gets in on the action...


Areas from Houma to Apalachicola is my delineated threat area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2195. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOWOWOWOWOWWWO

GFS already 7 MB lower than previous run 997mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2193. Dakster
Are we gonna get Karen anytime soon??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2192. Gearsts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2191. palmpt
Quoting 2184. KoritheMan:
Let's examine the basics here:

- Climatology favors the Florida landfall

- How far west this system tracks will depend on the speed and amplitude of the front out west (moreso the speed in this instance, since the front appears poised to be well-defined)

- There is a margin for error either west or east of the current dynamical model consensus

And... my personal opinion, barring any possible changes to the synoptic pattern over the next few days: a landfall is most likely to occur along the coast of Mississippi.

Just throwing that out there. I have no idea why.


Glad you did... May be more like a Mississippi River mouth landfall and then a hard right turn skirting the Mississippi and Alabama coastline and then going inland at the panhandle. So, the entire central coast gets in on the action...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2189. GatorWX
I'm everywhere in everything...

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 2186. daddyjames:


Just trying to invoke our ire ;)


No ire on my end (and I would hope nobody else's). I welcome with open arms this system coming my way. :P

Doesn't seem particularly likely as of now though, unfortunately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2184. KoritheMan:
Let's examine the basics here:

- Climatology favors the Florida landfall

- How far west this system tracks will depend on the speed and amplitude of the front out west (moreso the speed in this instance, since the front appears poised to be well-defined)

- There is a margin for error either west or east of the current dynamical model consensus

And... my personal opinion, barring any possible changes to the synoptic pattern over the next few days: a landfall is most likely to occur along the coast of Mississippi.

Just throwing that out there. I have no idea why.


Well, we count count Mississippi out now...

<3
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting 2184. KoritheMan:
Let's examine the basics here:

- Climatology favors the Florida landfall

- How far west this system tracks will depend on the speed and amplitude of the front out west (moreso the speed in this instance, since the front appears poised to be well-defined)

- There is a margin for error either west or east of the current dynamical model consensus

And... my personal opinion, barring any possible changes to the synoptic pattern over the next few days: a landfall is most likely to occur along the coast of Mississippi.

Just throwing that out there. I have no idea why.


Just trying to invoke our ire ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Let's examine the basics here:

- Climatology favors the Florida landfall

- How far west this system tracks will depend on the speed and amplitude of the front out west (moreso the speed in this instance, since the front appears poised to be well-defined)

- There is a margin for error either west or east of the current dynamical model consensus

And... my personal opinion, barring any possible changes to the synoptic pattern over the next few days: a landfall is most likely to occur along the coast of Mississippi.

Just throwing that out there. I have no idea why.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2183. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2178. seer2012:
my trouble-maker list just keeps growing....Is there a max number?


10, I think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2169. LightningCharmer:
Haven't posted in months.

Reading over the last hundred or so comments; I've heard of cowboy poetry -- tropical weather poetry?

Good to see the tropics are being watched with such an artistic eye.

Don't mean any of this in a bad way. 'Actually enjoyed the weather bards.

Important to remember, there is a noticeable statistical peak for tropical storms and hurricanes in October.




I haven't seen you before :p I like your avatar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2180. Patrap
I was also in a HBO Treme Episode season 3 at the Columns Restaurant here, a scene with David Morse.

Lotsa work here in Hollywood South for extras for xtra cash.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2179. GatorWX
For those who rightfully deserve...



Good thing there's people like you to make sure those who were wrong know about it.



What would would we all do without you?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
my trouble-maker list just keeps growing....Is there a max number?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2152. LAbonbon:


I rather liked your first version :)



There are a lot of different versions of the lyrics to that song, depending on which show you listen too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2176. GatorWX
Quoting 2173. daddyjames:


The cop? or 53 years?


In a music video for MGMT. Not a fan really, but I like the song. He's a supa star
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 2174. scottsvb:




remember this, this afternoon..hmmm


Yes, we understand he was being a bit aggressive in his analysis based on the visual presentation. Then again, many a thing looks good from a distance ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting 2171. GatorWX:


Are you serious?? That's great if you are...


The cop? or 53 years?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
0z GFS is running.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8668
2171. GatorWX
Quoting 2167. Patrap:


Im the Cop in the MGMT "Kid's" Video, it was filmed round corner from when we lived Uptown.

Datz How.

I'm same age as Dr. Masters.

53


Are you serious?? That's great if you are...
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 2165. GatorWX:


Idk, what are you thinking?

I just saw that mid-level shear over the gom heading easterly and was wondering if there was a possibility of this storm being pushed more eastward than what has been discussed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Haven't posted in months.

Reading over the last hundred or so comments; I've heard of cowboy poetry -- tropical weather poetry?

Good to see the tropics are being watched with such an artistic eye.

Don't mean any of this in a bad way. 'Actually enjoyed the weather bards.

Important to remember, there is a noticeable statistical peak for tropical storms and hurricanes in October.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2168. GatorWX
Quoting 2165. GatorWX:


Idk, what are you thinking?


Doesn't seem entirely strong, the shear. I think the fact it was so broad, it has taken longer than usual to align. Also, we're seeing pressures quite low, much as we did with Ingrid. Started off kind of monsoonal, but has come quite a ways in 72 hrs and even more today. I say it's 50/50 when recon gets there tonight. My point with mid-shear is the fact dry air may be impeding development, not so much causing a decoupling. Steering layers are probably a better way of judging the mid level vort and low level vort motions.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
2167. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My final guess for tonight is Karen at 5am EDT. We'll see how that goes. If recon isn't flying (they're scheduled to...but haven't departed yet) then probably later on tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32521

Viewing: 2216 - 2166

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.