97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2262. Patrap:
They can drop sondes, the GPS stuff is kinda good in that respect.




Might be a few boats near the coast that might not like that :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
2265. Patrap
Its not a Bunker Buster

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Quoting 2252. CaicosRetiredSailor:


They are doing the dirty work for the Sugar industry and corrupt politicians...


Not mention tearing up my street, destroying our neutral ground, and preventing us from accessing our driveways, for a project that they estimate will not be completed until 2017 :(
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2263. sar2401
Quoting MississippiBoy:
What are ya'lls thoughts on strength and will the front make it here on time to turn it?

Have no idea on intensity, since those numbers are all over the chart. For sure, at this point, it's headed straight north and will make landfall far too soon for the trough to affect while it's on the coast. The remnants will get picked up somewhere in the Midwest.
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2262. Patrap
They can drop sondes, the GPS stuff is kinda good in that respect.


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Quoting 2253. Patrap:
Looks like a easy flight down as the core of it,forming, is heading right thru da uprights tonight.



It sure did split the uprights, your mind and my mind seem to be in sync. :)
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Quoting 2249. MississippiBoy:
What are ya'lls thoughts on strength and will the front make it here on time to turn it?


TS at most. Yes - but where did you want it turned? Gulf Coast. Alabama/Florida border.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
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Quoting 2248. Patrap:



They will fly the pattern as Usual, the "Alpha" Butterfly, as for any overland constraints, we shall see.



www.hurricanehunters.com: Frequently Asked Questions








Okay, well good watching tonight. I am out until the morning.97L will be brushing up against the peninsula before too long. Whatever they find it is likely no sondes will be released that close in with the center on top of Cozumel now. Good reason to scrub IMO
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2257. Patrap
You can see easily the envelope being impinged on the West Side.

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2255. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
85kt winds at 900mb.

The GFS has a decent Cat. 1 making landfall.


Wait...it was at 988 surface pressure at hour 76...and is now at 1002 at 900 mb at hour 78. Can someone explain this to me?
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2254. GatorWX
Tired of lying in the sunshine
Staying home to watch the rain
And you are young and life is long
And there is time to kill today...

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2253. Patrap
Looks like a easy flight down as the core of it,forming, is heading right thru da uprights tonight.



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Quoting 2240. NOLA2005:


The ACOE strikes again.


They are doing the dirty work for the Sugar industry and corrupt politicians...
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Quoting 2247. sar2401:

So, in 11 hours, a storm which is almost stationary and fighting some hefty shear and dry air, is going to drop for 1004 mb to 988 mb? All I can say is that this is good indication that the GFS needs work this year.
That is 75 hours out, not 11. This is a good indication you need to get your eyes checked.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 2229. sunlinepr:
Preparing scenario for Karem vs. Atlas



Wow that is a preety impressive plume of moisture piling into the northern part of BC, Canada.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
What are ya'lls thoughts on strength and will the front make it here on time to turn it?
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2248. Patrap
Quoting 2238. kmanislander:


Will they fly with the system pretty much over land by the time the HH gets on station ?



They will fly the pattern as Usual, the "Alpha" Butterfly, as for any overland constraints, we shall see.



www.hurricanehunters.com: Frequently Asked Questions






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2247. sar2401
Quoting Gearsts:
Peak

So, in 11 hours, a storm which is almost stationary and fighting some hefty shear and dry air, is going to drop for 1004 mb to 988 mb? All I can say is that this is good indication that the GFS needs work this year.
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85kt winds at 900mb.

The GFS has a decent Cat. 1 making landfall.

Good night.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
If this fizzles it out, safe to say the season is a bust then.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
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2243. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FITOW (T1323)
12:00 PM JST October 3 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Sea South of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fitow (985 hPa) located at 20.3N 129.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.1N 129.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South Southeast of Naha (Okinawa)
45 HRS: 23.7N 128.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South Southeast of Naha (Okinawa)
69 HRS: 26.3N 124.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
It's interesting to note that many of the GFS ensembles are much farther west, giving credence to the more westward solution shown by the ECMWF. We saw this situation with... I hate to say it... Debby.

Interesting to see what happens.
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Quoting 2229. sunlinepr:
Preparing scenario for Karem vs. Atlas



The extratropical storm always wins these battles. Always.
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Quoting 2215. CaicosRetiredSailor:
http://www.salon.com/2013/10/02/photos_capture_th e_disgusting_reality_of_floridas_water_pollution/

: (

It can be difficult to conceive of just how polluted Florida's estuaries are, even with reports filing in of the record-setting deaths occurring there - including over 60 dolphins and 120 manatees. In order to make the case to Congress that Florida is in a state of disaster, U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Jupiter, is holding a photo contest.

The devastation began earlier this summer, when huge amounts of rainfall overwhelmed Lake Okeechobee's 80-year-old dike in South Florida. Faced with a problem to which there were no clear answers, the Army Corps of Engineers chose to release billions of gallons of polluted water into the St. Lucie River estuary in the east and the Calossahatchee River estuary in the west. Large algae blooms spread, and the delicate balance of salt and fresh water was overwhelmed.

Along with the dolphins and manatees, populations of shellfish, sea grasses and reefs are all suffering, and some even blame recent human deaths on infections acquired in the waters.


The ACOE strikes again.
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Quoting 2231. MississippiBoy:
Hope we dont wake up for a big surprise in the gulf in the morning.


Not every storm in the Gulf is going to explode.

I really don't like the Gulf centricism on this blog, even if 2005 did largely generate that mentality.
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Quoting 2212. Patrap:
Standing by for TEAL 71 to go wheels up from Biloxi.





Will they fly with the system pretty much over land by the time the HH gets on station ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting 2230. SuperStorm093:


strong winds here

some purple colors WOW


GFS is the only thing strengthening it. Nothing else. Maybe its confused.

Thoughts from another:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 5h
=> If the GFS track is wrong, its forecasted <990mb strength is also wrong. ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/ not deepening 97L embedded in anticyclonic flow
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Big!

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It will most likely be a rain maker for the northern gulf coast.
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2233. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


Did we get a renumber?

No, but I guess bedtime is close enough.
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Quoting 2209. Dakster:
Never underestimate the K storm, especially when it is forecasted to be in the GOM.
I could say the same for Honduras with the M storm.Mitch,Matthew etc.
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Hope we dont wake up for a big surprise in the gulf in the morning.
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strong winds here

some purple colors WOW
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Preparing scenario for Karem vs. Atlas

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Quoting 2217. Stormchaser2007:


Recon should find a closed low.. unless thats the mid levels, I see a tight spin at 21.7N and 86W. We will see what recon finds in a bit..
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2227. Gearsts
Peak
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2226. Patrap
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 021515
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 02 OCTOBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 03/1800Z, 04/0000Z A. 03/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0312A CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0412A CYCLONE
C. 03/1600Z C. 03/1800Z
D. 23.3N 88.8W D. 23.4N 88.9W
E. 03/1730 TO 04/0000Z E. 03/2000Z TO 05/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73 FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 43
A. 04/0600Z, 1200Z A. 04/0800Z
B. AFXXX 0512A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 0612A CYCLONE
C. 04/0430Z C. 04/0600Z
D. 25.8N 89.3W D. 25.9N 89.3W
E. 04/0530Z TO 04/1200Z E. 04/0730Z TO 04/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT. P-3 MISSIONS DEPARTING
AT 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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This ain't no Isaac....

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2224. Dakster
Quoting 2219. Seastep:
97L is a TS. Bedtime.


Did we get a renumber?
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2223. palmpt
Quoting 2212. Patrap:
Standing by for TEAL 71 to go wheels up from Biloxi.





I'm in Nola, but they'll fly over my Biloxi house...
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2222. Patrap
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2221. Gearsts
989mb
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good evening everyone I hope that this one is not going to be the one to pull a complete surprise on us. I know the shear will affect it. But this season has been anything but norma
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2219. Seastep
97L is a TS. Bedtime.
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Quoting 2206. Dakster:


I wasn't asking about your last date. ;)



LOL - if I were only that lucky!
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
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Quoting 2182. FunnelVortex:


10, I think.


LOL, I passed that a long time ago
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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