97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2310. StRochNOLA:


based on what I see on satellite I agree...what appears to be the most agreed on model so far?


I don't think there is one. The ECMWF has a historically preferred track record to the GFS, but the GFS is a close second. Some successes of each:

GFS:

- Nailed Debby's eventual toward turn Florida when the ECMWF said Louisiana. Everyone thought the Euro would win (including myself).

ECMWF:

- Nailed Isaac's Louisiana landfall well before the GFS (or any of the other models) did. GFS eventually followed suit.

- Completely godstomped forecasts for Sandy, being literally the only model that called for a US landfall initially.
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Quoting 2310. StRochNOLA:


based on what I see on satellite I agree...what appears to be the most agreed on model so far?


My personal favorite is the GFS, since it's the only one that is developing 97L currently.

Welcome to the blog by the way.
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2314. Patrap


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Quoting 2305. CaicosRetiredSailor:


Finally a good ascat,I've been looking for one all day.I want rapidscat.
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Quoting 2300. daddyjames:


Welcome. (love the new guys, they're not jaded by blog dynamics yet).


He should see the blog after hurricane season is unofficially done. LOL. (last year on the blog after Tony dissipated sure was hell though....)
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Quoting 2304. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
still waiting
They took off yet? and if so how further off are they?
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2577
Quoting 2307. HurricaneAndre:
Straight to TS.


based on what I see on satellite I agree...what appears to be the most agreed on model so far?
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2309. Patrap
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 011525
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 01 OCTOBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSTECT AREA -- CNTRAL CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 02/1445Z C. 03/0300Z
D. 18N 85W D. 21N 86W
E. 1730-2200Z E. 0530-1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT E. SFC TO 10,000FT


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW
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Quoting 2305. CaicosRetiredSailor:

40kt winds in there.
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Quoting 2295. StRochNOLA:
Hello All, my first post ever!!

97L is looking good...looks like we may have a TD soon, or will we go straight to a TS...

PS...I am a huge weather fanatic, purely amateur, but it has fascinated me since i was a kid. I appreciated reading all of your input and forecasting regardless of right or wrong. Cheers!
Straight to TS.
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97L/future Karen will be a big threat to Asheville. Might go 2 for 2 for USA storms this season...
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2304. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2299. bigwes6844:
Wassup Pat and everybody else i just got off wats going on? Is recon saying anything
still waiting
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
2303. Patrap
There is no Satellite "Viz" Mode as its night on this side da planet, the Day Viz goes to Night IR post Sundown/Terminator.



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2302. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2283. KoritheMan:


I love you, Keeper.
its all good KM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
For me this is a Tropical Cyclone already. Maybe Invest 97L has not been declared Tropical Storm Karen due to Government Shutdown or who knows why !!!
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Quoting 2295. StRochNOLA:
Hello All, my first post ever!!

97L is looking good...looks like we may have a TD soon, or will we go straight to a TS...

PS...I am a huge weather fanatic, purely amateur, but it has fascinated me since i was a kid. I appreciated reading all of your input and forecasting regardless of right or wrong. Cheers!


Welcome. (love the new guys, they're not jaded by blog dynamics yet).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wassup Pat and everybody else i just got off wats going on? Is recon saying anything
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2577
If they wait another 12 hours, this thing will pop out an eye before they even think to call it a TD.



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Quoting 2289. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Another day in paradise.

Trying for the " K " Storm I see.

How's everyone doing this fine evening?


Yah, but not until tomorrow - if at all. We'll see.

What are we doing? Staring at a mass of clouds trying to determine if there is enough organization to call it by name other than $%^#&^$&#&!! ;)
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Even though Vis sat looks like there is a eye like feature in 97L...it's not of course but it does appear to be the LLC with radar backing it up.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1637
Hello All, my first post ever!!

97L is looking good...looks like we may have a TD soon, or will we go straight to a TS...

PS...I am a huge weather fanatic, purely amateur, but it has fascinated me since i was a kid. I appreciated reading all of your input and forecasting regardless of right or wrong. Cheers!
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2294. GatorWX
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2829
2293. Patrap
Quoting 2291. NOLA2005:


Pat, you need to come back to da hood. They're doing this to Jefferson Ave. They've dug up the neutral ground and now there is a "Pot O Gold" in front of my house, lol!

Hope the Euro doesn't pan out.



I know, I paid a Stop sign ticket today I got running behind Newman..trying to escape that Job one morn a month ago.


Now Im gonna tip dat Port o Let If I see. LOL
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2292. Patrap
Quoting 2287. FunnelVortex:


Why would a boat be in the middle of a TS or Cane anyways?




My thoughts exactly.
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Quoting 2267. Patrap:


Sounds like Napoleon Ave to mees.


Pat, you need to come back to da hood. They're doing this to Jefferson Ave. They've dug up the neutral ground and now there is a "Pot O Gold" in front of my house, lol!

Hope the Euro doesn't pan out.
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2290. whitewabit (Mod)
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Quoting 2276. daddyjames:


Good evening to you too - what up?

Another day in paradise.

Trying for the " K " Storm I see.

How's everyone doing this fine evening?
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Quoting 2200. MahFL:


No.

Ugh, yes it is!
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Quoting 2277. Patrap:
A Sonde weighs less than a Pound,less under chute I'm presuming.

I'm sure the Boats all have lawyers.

; )



Why would a boat be in the middle of a TS or Cane anyways?

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2286. Patrap
Quoting 2279. kmanislander:


LOL. I am sure they do. Even a pound or less can hurt from a height !

Bye now.


I know, I got hit with a Hailstone and sued once.

The Plaintiff settled out of his own court.
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GFS is 80 miles to far SW and overland as of 03z or 11pm eastern time and will be around 90-100miles west of where the LLC is as of 6z or 2am eastern time unless this jogs west for 6hrs till morning. GFS has been constant on putting the low around 22.5N and 88W as of 15z or 11am eastern on Thurs.
Recon will give a better estimate but radar does show a LLC pretty good now.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1637
Quoting 2242. KoritheMan:
It's interesting to note that many of the GFS ensembles are much farther west, giving credence to the more westward solution shown by the ECMWF. We saw this situation with... I hate to say it... Debby.

Interesting to see what happens.


Last night the ensembles split the storm, then they went back into lockstep this morning. This is a strange storm. It doesn't want to go anywhere, or develop a center, or send rainbands, it's just literally entropic.

I guess it's just spinning out all the latent heat in the NCARIB. Which is their job...
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Quoting 2269. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


maybe



I love you, Keeper.
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2282. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
12:00 PM JST October 3 2013
======================================

Mariana Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.7N 149.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.1N 146.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Island
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Quoting 2013. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon departs in a little over a half hour to see if this has become a tropical cyclone since the last mission. The fact that it's developed and is maintaining a CDO makes me believe it has a well-defined and closed center, but we'll see.
You can tell that the pressure has dropped dramatically, by the way the thunderstorms are firing around the center.

There is substantially more organization than there was only a few hours ago, based upon what we're seeing, with our eyes alone.
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Quoting 2246. TropicalAnalystwx13:
85kt winds at 900mb.

The GFS has a decent Cat. 1 making landfall.

Good night.



Guys, Cody's leaving. Yes!

Erm, I mean, good night Cody, cya tomorrow.

:-)
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Quoting 2277. Patrap:
A Sonde weighs less than a Pound,less under chute I'm presuming.

I'm sure the Boats all have lawyers.

; )

img src="">


LOL. I am sure they do. Even a pound or less can hurt from a height !

Bye now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15800
What ever we get will be a pretty decent size storm,in area.
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2277. Patrap
A Sonde weighs less than a Pound,less under chute I'm presuming.

I'm sure the Boats all have lawyers.

; )

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Quoting 2271. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Evening Class!


Good evening to you too - what up?
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2275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
No wheels up as yet so a long night for those who will be following the mission on the blog, assuming they fly. Good night all
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15800
2273. sar2401
Quoting Civicane49:

How much of what we're seeing on the satellite is high and mid-level clouds? It seems like it's a lot, and it's making 97L look much bigger than it is.
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2272. Walshy
After seeing the wettest summer on record in western NC...things have dried out for the past 30+ days or so. We can handle Karen if the rain totals are only up to 2-4". But wind, downpours and isolated tornadoes would be bad for our Fall foliage.
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Good Evening Class!
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Quoting 2250. daddyjames:


Wow that is a preety impressive plume of moisture piling into the northern part of BC, Canada.


Storm/Gale warnings up along most of the coast.





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2269. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2193. Dakster:
Are we gonna get Karen anytime soon??
Quoting 2199. KoritheMan:


Yes.
Quoting 2200. MahFL:


No.


maybe

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
Tonight's totally irrelevant distraction. It's nice to see that two soul mates can find, and fall in love with one another:

Senior couple charged in decades old cold cases
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2267. Patrap
Quoting 2264. NOLA2005:


Not mention tearing up my street, destroying our neutral ground, and preventing us from accessing our driveways, for a project that they estimate will not be completed until 2017 :(


Sounds like Napoleon Ave to mees.
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Quoting 2262. Patrap:
They can drop sondes, the GPS stuff is kinda good in that respect.




Might be a few boats near the coast that might not like that :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15800

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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