97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2351. CCkid00:

so neighbor...........what do YOU think of this thing. any chance it could still come to our neck of the woods?


It's a possibility. I would say about 20 or 30%. I'm stubbornly sticking to a Mississippi landfall for now, and I would say based on model output, the Louisiana solution is unlikely for now.

But I've done this for long enough to know that things are not set in stone. We have 3 or 4 days left before landfall, and a lot can still change. We saw that with Isaac.

It's important to follow the consensus, but there are times when personal intuition is preferred over blindly following the guidance.

MS/AL/FL area seems most likely for now, but again, things can change very quickly.
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Quoting 2361. KoritheMan:


Interesting.
must be the ECMWF model im thinking. That model looked like a hurricane coming ashore too. Yes very interesting!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
2364. GatorWX



Night, outsky..........
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2363. Drakoen
Quoting 2360. KoritheMan:


Do you give any credence to the more westward solution shown by the GFS ensembles and the ECMWF?


Yes, i'm using the TVCN as a correction to the OP GFS eastern forecast.
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2362. CCkid00
Quoting 2354. StRochNOLA:


hopefully not...slept through most of Isaac, per the models, it looks like a FL storm, but, we all know how the models can change...I think our new roof will fare better this time around though

i'm to the northwest of you....Denham Springs. had a LOT of Isaac flooding just a few miles down the road from us.....Port Vincent, Manchac, Maurpas, etc.
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Quoting 2359. bigwes6844:
Hey kori Ch 4 just showed a model coming straight up the gut to grand isle on saturday morning beating the front


Interesting.
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Quoting 2345. Drakoen:


The TVCN


Do you give any credence to the more westward solution shown by the GFS ensembles and the ECMWF?
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Hey kori Ch 4 just showed a model coming straight up the gut to grand isle on saturday morning beating the front
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
Quoting 2355. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





another fascination of mine...
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Quoting 2355. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





Thanks Keep...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9824
Quoting 2335. StRochNOLA:
Thank you all for the welcome!

Welcome to the blog. Now goodnight Lol :p
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2355. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2348. sunlinepr:


Got into the USGS page to check quakes N of PR and there are no plots... due to shutdown....

Message reads:

Government Furlough

Due to a lapse in Federal funding, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program has suspended most of its operations. While the USGS will continue to monitor and report on earthquake activity, the accuracy or timeliness of some earthquake information products, as well as the availability or functionality of some web pages, could be affected by our reduced level of operation.

Link




Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54450
Quoting 2351. CCkid00:

so neighbor...........what do YOU think of this thing. any chance it could still come to our neck of the woods?


hopefully not...slept through most of Isaac, per the models, it looks like a FL storm, but, we all know how the models can change...I think our new roof will fare better this time around though
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Quoting 2350. HurrMichaelOrl:
This storm is already, by far, the most interesting/fascinating storm of the 2013 season to me. Also, the first where I have felt any sense of suspense. The satellite presentation for the past 24 hours has been quite impressive. It is good to see a storm that is not struggling, though I certainly never expect it to become very powerful.


Its been totally struggling. Satellite appearance has been deceiving.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting 2332. Patrap:
Lil Green in da FunkTop Loop

That's High and COLD.



I will refrain from using the A word.. until forced to.
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2351. CCkid00
Quoting 2322. KoritheMan:


Welcome!

Another close neighbor here. I live in Prairieville, near Baton Rouge.

Pleased to meet you!

so neighbor...........what do YOU think of this thing. any chance it could still come to our neck of the woods?
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This storm is already, by far, the most interesting/fascinating storm of the 2013 season to me. Also, the first where I have felt any sense of suspense. The satellite presentation for the past 24 hours has been quite impressive. It is good to see a storm that is not struggling, though I certainly never expect it to become very powerful.
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2349. Patrap
TVC 15
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128705
Quoting 2301. WeatherfanPR:
For me this is a Tropical Cyclone already. Maybe Invest 97L has not been declared Tropical Storm Karen due to Government Shutdown or who knows why !!!


Got into the USGS page to check quakes N of PR and there are no plots... due to shutdown....

Message reads:

Government Furlough

Due to a lapse in Federal funding, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program has suspended most of its operations. While the USGS will continue to monitor and report on earthquake activity, the accuracy or timeliness of some earthquake information products, as well as the availability or functionality of some web pages, could be affected by our reduced level of operation.

Link

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9824
Look how 97L has moisten up the environment. WOW!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
Quoting 2319. Skyepony:

Outstanding satellite presentation. Great outflow in all quads. Best looking invest I've seen. Unofficially Tropical Storm Karen!
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2345. Drakoen
Quoting 2343. KoritheMan:


Drak, where do you favor an inevitable US landfall? My solution is not the most popular one, but I'm going to stick to my guns and continue saying coastal Mississippi until I have a reason to change it.


The TVCN
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Quoting 2341. KoritheMan:


I see it used around video game/anime forums I go to. I guess that's where it originated? :P

It's like... well, it's another word for "pwnt" if you're into internet speak.

Ya dig?


*Smiles and Nods Head Vigorously*

I gotcha.
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Quoting 2338. Drakoen:


Appears to be just east of the Yucatan Peninsula and may be enough to warrant classification of a tropical cyclone with support from satellite estimate T numbers.


Drak, where do you favor an inevitable US landfall? My solution is not the most popular one, but I'm going to stick to my guns and continue saying coastal Mississippi until I have a reason to change it.
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Quoting 2316. KoritheMan:


I don't think there is one. The ECMWF has a historically preferred track record to the GFS, but the GFS is a close second. Some successes of each:

GFS:

- Nailed Debby's eventual toward turn Florida when the ECMWF said Louisiana. Everyone thought the Euro would win (including myself).

ECMWF:

- Nailed Isaac's Louisiana landfall well before the GFS (or any of the other models) did. GFS eventually followed suit.

- Completely godstomped forecasts for Sandy, being literally the only model that called for a US landfall initially.


Godstomped, now there's a $5 word.
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Quoting 2336. Astrometeor:


godstomped?

What? Does? That? Mean?


I see it used around video game/anime forums I go to. I guess that's where it originated? :P

It's like... well, it's another word for "pwnt" if you're into internet speak.

Ya dig?
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Quoting 2327. StRochNOLA:


Thanks! love NOLA...looks like this one will miss us!
well were hoping its all on the timing of the front first. if it takes its time we are in trouble. but if it gets here quickly like the GFS model is predicting then this is gonna be a Ala/FL storm.
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2339. docrod
been underwater most of today ... beginning to look like a miss here (Fl Keys) ... hang on to my north.
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2338. Drakoen
Quoting 2305. CaicosRetiredSailor:




Appears to be just east of the Yucatan Peninsula and may be enough to warrant classification of a tropical cyclone with support from satellite estimate T numbers.
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2337. vis0
CREDIT: Hawaii/Wisc. ???
SUBJECT: INVEST 97L
PERIOD: 201310-02'2015 till -03'0215 (add a 250MB wind frame at end from 10-03'0015 UTC)
TTO WATCH: please visit my blog and see the ml-d area of influence graphic and watch how 97L behaves as it enters that AOI....stacks up or mb layers wobbles?
For
the ml-d AOI from May thru Sept TO ME it seems the Natural WxTrend was
a westward forward motion with a compass direction of 270 degrees.
Using my knowledge it appears the natural forward motion is more WNW/NW
averaged to a compass direction of 310° degrees. A change of 11% as to
360° degrees (360° as to the 40 degree change). With a simple formula the
11% turns into 22% as  i use the 360° divided into a westward
moving storm & eastward moving storm each of 180°, the 11% is NOT divided but multiplied by the inverse of that difference. That means this
INVEST has a 22% BETTER chance of developing as compared to INVESTS
that entered the ml-d AOI this past May through Sept, NOT COUNTING the
ANOMALY weeks i also mention on my blog. Again this is all confusing
'cause its a new science that one can't memorize by reading a 50$
college book, imagine a person that was taught to predict weather by
observing the clouds then in the 1940s/50s having to pick up
instructions on how to read radar/new maps and think whats all this
munbo jumbo of Mb, wind bars,fronts.

My22CENTS:
Notice since i pointed out when the next wxTrend change was to occur
(after Sept ~22 2013 lasts ~2 months) we've had 2 pTwF (TW,TD,TS) under
the ml-d AOI. TO ME it seems that the natural trend as to the U.S.
 near-by tropics is a NW(WNW) motion with a natural strength of ~1.5 as
to the last 128 yr "norm".  
As i've stated since 2010 (from my
1970s theories)  if the natural trend has a northern direction as to
its forward motion the TS will be able to have its mb layers stack up
better. The more towards zip 10016 (where the ml-d is) the TS is
NATURALLY moving the better the TS mb layers  stacks up AS LONG AS THE
ml-d is ON. ONLY if the natural trend is HIGHER than 2.0 can it trump
the ml-d's push-pull and THEN succeed in having its mb layers stack up
even is the TS is moving away from zip 10016. n Today's terms this
means either the U.S. sees many TS or CAT1 anemic formations wobbling
or they see quick forming CAT2s And above with erratic forward motions
as opposed to easier to predict TS that build up linearly
(TS,CAT1,CAT2...) with a "classic spiral"  formation. Its going to drive experts nutty.

This
is why i state for an El Nino/La Nina Oscillations to maintain itself
(after 2010 and/or till i turn OFF the ml-d) and form a ~ year long
affect it has to be above the 2 times normal strength to survive the
ml-d's setting of almost 2 times the average. Most here know if an El
Nino/La Nina is above 2 times their "norm" major weather catastrophes
are bound to happen  Otherwise you see pho-El Ninos/La Ninas or i like
to Call "El Primo" (The Cousin). For more info or confusion please
visit my blog.
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Quoting 2316. KoritheMan:




- Completely godstomped


godstomped?

What? Does? That? Mean?
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Thank you all for the welcome!
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I see the FIM9 model still got it going west of the city again. cant wait to see the 6z models in two hours
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
2333. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


bubbling away almost too a boil
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54450
2332. Patrap
Lil Green in da FunkTop Loop

That's High and COLD.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128705
Quoting 2319. Skyepony:


At first I thought I saw an eye, then I realized it was a cleverly located speck of dust on my screen.
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Quoting 2322. KoritheMan:


Welcome!

Another close neighbor here. I live in Prairieville, near Baton Rouge.

Pleased to meet you!


Cheers! Who Dat!
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Quoting 2325. bigwes6844:
so there departure they were supposed to leave at 10 never happen? or there gonna wait?
I'm not sure right now.
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Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
Quoting 2320. bigwes6844:
welcome my friend. I am pleased to greet u here from wunderground! Howdy do my city neighbor! We love our new bloggers!


Thanks! love NOLA...looks like this one will miss us!
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2326. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128705
Quoting 2317. HurricaneAndre:
Fortunely no,and I don't know what's going on,but I think the NHC will renumber this at 1am.
so there departure they were supposed to leave at 10 never happen? or there gonna wait?
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
Quoting 2312. FunnelVortex:


He should see the blog after hurricane season is unofficially done. LOL. (last year on the blog after Tony dissipated sure was hell though....)


After Tony? Tony was gone before Sandy even was over, if I remember correctly. Not even sure if anyone paid any attention to Tony, lol. The TWC winter storm fiasco kept me going through winter. 8 inch per hour snow rates, just epic.
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Quoting 2319. Skyepony:
Whoh,I think our first band will come tomorrow afternoon.
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Quoting 2310. StRochNOLA:


based on what I see on satellite I agree...what appears to be the most agreed on model so far?


Welcome!

Another close neighbor here. I live in Prairieville, near Baton Rouge.

Pleased to meet you!
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Quoting 2303. Patrap:
There is no Satellite "Viz" Mode as its night on this side da planet, the Day Viz goes to Night IR post Sundown/Terminator.





97L has lost a lot of weight in the last few hours. Might do a Charley? Small, fast, mean?
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Quoting 2295. StRochNOLA:
Hello All, my first post ever!!

97L is looking good...looks like we may have a TD soon, or will we go straight to a TS...

PS...I am a huge weather fanatic, purely amateur, but it has fascinated me since i was a kid. I appreciated reading all of your input and forecasting regardless of right or wrong. Cheers!
welcome my friend. I am pleased to greet u here from wunderground! Howdy do my city neighbor! We love our new bloggers!
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2319. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting 1967. SFLWeatherman:


Is it just me, or does S. Florida almost always get more of these heavy training rain/thunderstorm events from tropical systems to the south (compared to E. Central FL)? Then when something finally makes it up here, more often than not, it is in the process of disintegrating as it moves over us. I guess it makes perfect sense, since they are significantly closer to the tropics than we are. Their rainy season hasn't even ended in extreme S. Florida yet. It has here.
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Quoting 2311. bigwes6844:
They took off yet? and if so how further off are they?
Fortunely no,and I don't know what's going on,but I think the NHC will renumber this at 1am.
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Quoting 2310. StRochNOLA:


based on what I see on satellite I agree...what appears to be the most agreed on model so far?


I don't think there is one. The ECMWF has a historically preferred track record to the GFS, but the GFS is a close second. Some successes of each:

GFS:

- Nailed Debby's eventual toward turn Florida when the ECMWF said Louisiana. Everyone thought the Euro would win (including myself).

ECMWF:

- Nailed Isaac's Louisiana landfall well before the GFS (or any of the other models) did. GFS eventually followed suit.

- Completely godstomped forecasts for Sandy, being literally the only model that called for a US landfall initially.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.