97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2555. LargoFl:
well the whole northern gulf coast is going to have and eventful and wet weekend..local NWS says this is NOT going to be a Tampa event for those away from home..even lower rain chances for us here..but me?..im watching the storm anyway lol...taking no chances on that right turn.

I see the clouds though blowing off towards Florida panhandle and penninsula though..many times the direction of the where the clouds go show where the system will go.
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2565. IKE
GMZ001-032130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
517 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT N
TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRES CENTER LIFTING N OFF NE COAST OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA. LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE N TO N-NW THROUGH SAT AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GALES ACROSS EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS A VERY
GOOD CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 31N87.5W BY SAT
EVENING THEN TURN NE AND MOVE INLAND SAT NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER E PORTIONS OF THE
GULF ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS.

................................................. .

31N and 87.5W is near Pensacola,FL.
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2564. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
2563. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
2562. LargoFl
well on Levi's site 6z GFS has it as a hurricane...
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2561. LargoFl
6z GFS beginning..................
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2560. LargoFl
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2559. LargoFl
so far 3 models take it to cat-1 hurricane,the rest stay at strong TS.................
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2558. LargoFl
At 0600 UTC, 03 October 2013, LOW INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 21.5°N and 86.6°W. The current intensity was 40 kt and the center was moving at 11 kt at a bearing of 335 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb.
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2557. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
2556. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
2555. LargoFl
well the whole northern gulf coast is going to have and eventful and wet weekend..local NWS says this is NOT going to be a Tampa event for those away from home..even lower rain chances for us here..but me?..im watching the storm anyway lol...taking no chances on that right turn.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Stayed up for the 5am to still have 97l....Oh well... Glad recons finally up... Least we know it will go straight to TS when they decide to cut the red ribbon...
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Recon is up
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2551. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting 2548. BahaHurican:
Morning all.



Largo hasn't put on coffee yet? Sure could use a cup.....

Guess I'll have to stumble over tho the coffeemaker myself...




G'morning, Baha and weathergeeks! Yup, Baha, sup with Largo, must be sleepin' in. GoM storms need coffee brewed all night long. ;) j/k, Largo.

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2549. LargoFl
Good Morning folks...Finally the Coffee is Perked!!.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Morning all.



Largo hasn't put on coffee yet? Sure could use a cup.....

Guess I'll have to stumble over tho the coffeemaker myself...

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2547. FOREX
Quoting 2545. ackee:
I can't believe 97L is not a tropical storm


it has the winds, just not a closed low apparently.
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This should be an interesting day!!
Quoting 2541. FOREX:


So Panama City Beach is in the clear?


If you look at the GFS, the offical still takes it close to Panama City.. I think anyone from New Orleans to Cedar Key, FL should keep and eye on this.
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2545. ackee
I can't believe 97L is not a tropical storm
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013

A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JERRY EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING ITSELF...
PROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE
CYCLONE. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED DVORAK
INTENSITY NUMBERS TO DROP FURTHER. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 30 KT...BASED PRIMARILY UPON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY.
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS...AS WELL A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE PATH
OF THE STORM SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW INDICATED SOONER...AND THERE IS SOME
CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM OPENING UP AS A TROUGH WITHIN TWO DAYS AS
INDICATED BY THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS.

THE HEADING OF THE STORM IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT THE
FORWARD MOTION IS A BIT FASTER. A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF FIXES
STILL YIELDS A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION ESTIMATE OF 050/08. JERRY
SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THE TRACK OF JERRY SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND DECELERATE ONCE IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND MOVES IN
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORTEX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 30.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 31.3N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 32.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 33.4N 34.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 34.4N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 37.5N 28.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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...JERRY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE WEEKEND...

5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3
Location: 30.2°N 41.4°W
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013

...JERRY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 41.4W
ABOUT 985 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
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2541. FOREX
Quoting 2540. PensacolaDoug:
JB says eventual lf tween mouth of the Miss and P'cola. Perhaps as a cane.


So Panama City Beach is in the clear?
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JB says eventual lf tween mouth of the Miss and P'cola. Perhaps as a cane.
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2538. flsky
Clouds coming in to Ponce Inlet, FL now.
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2537. VR46L
Quoting 2536. bigwes6844:
not wassup!


Wes ... check this out

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not wassup!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
Thank you!

I really don't care for the GFDL model, at all. Unless I am really out of practice looking at them (it's been awhile since I really felt the need) I don't think it is the latest one.

I guess I will add storm concerns to my running conditions, asthma conditions, running times worries. It's only Thursday. drat.
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Quoting 2532. bigwes6844:
This storm is getting huge!


Unfortunately!!
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This storm is getting huge!
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Quoting 2527. KoritheMan:


Is it me, or did the ensembles go west again?
yes they are kori very west!
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Quoting 2527. KoritheMan:


Is it me, or did the ensembles go west again?



Hope so!! If it rains at my house then it rains in Tallahassee....and my team does not play well in rain!!
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Quoting 2526. mobilebayrat:
That would make me very happy. we have horses so unless it is bad enough to load them up and haul them out. We stay. so we would need to forgo watching the cross country race.

Could you post a link for the models please?


Link

Link

Rest are paid sites.
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Quoting 2525. bigwes6844:
Wow!


Is it me, or did the ensembles go west again?
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That would make me very happy. we have horses so unless it is bad enough to load them up and haul them out. We stay. so we would need to forgo watching the cross country race.

Could you post a link for the models please?
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Wow!
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Quoting 2522. mobilebayrat:
We are in Baldwin County, and supposed to go to Cullman.
i believe u guys will be fine because the bulk of it wont get there till sunday for yall
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New 6z models!
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We are in Baldwin County, and supposed to go to Cullman.
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Quoting 2520. mobilebayrat:
Good early morning everyone. I am usually a major lurker, but thought I would pop in while it is relatively quiet in here.

We are supposed to go to North Alabama on Friday to watch my son run in a huge cross country event on Saturday morning. I'm starting to think it isn't going to happen. drat.

Will be interesting to see what the rising sun brings.
wat part of ala?
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
Good early morning everyone. I am usually a major lurker, but thought I would pop in while it is relatively quiet in here.

We are supposed to go to North Alabama on Friday to watch my son run in a huge cross country event on Saturday morning. I'm starting to think it isn't going to happen. drat.

Will be interesting to see what the rising sun brings.
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Quoting 2517. Civicane49:
Up to 40 kts.

AL, 97, 2013100306, , BEST, 0, 215N, 866W, 40, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
they mite as well and say TS Karen at 5am. makes since storm is getting better
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Up to 40 kts.

AL, 97, 2013100306, , BEST, 0, 215N, 866W, 40, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Quoting 2513. LAbonbon:
I've given myself a headache flipping between webpages and squinting at models. Time to hit the hay. Good night, everyone.
nite! sleep well my friend mite wake up to TS Karen
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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