97L in Caribbean Will Spread Heavy Rains to Jamaica and Cuba by Monday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:59 PM GMT on September 29, 2013

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A low pressure system (Invest 97L) over the Central Caribbean is generating heavy rains from Haiti to Panama, and is moving northwest at about 7 mph. Satellite loops show 97L has a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms and a broad area of spin. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F), and wind shear is a high 20 knots.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Marginally favorable conditions for development are expected for the next five days, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast, with moderate levels of wind shear (10 - 20 knots), but an atmosphere that will grow drier as 97L approaches the Northwest Caribbean and Southeast Gulf of Mexico. None of the reliable computer forecast models develop 97L into a tropical depression over the next five days. These models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) predict a northwesterly track for 97L over the next three days, followed by a more northerly track over Western Cuba and just west of the Florida Keys late in the week. On this path, 97L will bring heavy rains of 2 - 4" to Jamaica and Southwest Haiti on Sunday and Monday, to the Cayman Islands and Central and Eastern Cuba on Monday and Tuesday, to Western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday, and to South Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 20%, and 5-day odds of 40%.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 11, taken at 10:30 am EDT on September 29, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression 11 develops in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Depression Eleven formed from a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic on Saturday night, but the storm is far from land and is not likely to threaten any land areas. Wind shear is currently keeping TD 11 disorganized, with just a small area of heavy thunderstorms displaced from the center of circulation. By Monday, the upper-level low bringing the shear should move away, allowing TD 11 to intensify into Tropical Storm Jerry.

Jeff Masters

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857. wunderkidcayman
12:17 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Hmm surface map now show sfc low rather than a sfc trof now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
856. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:16 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
855. sporteguy03
12:16 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 854. weatherman994:
The season is done.

It is September 30th today not November 30th. :)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
854. weatherman994
12:15 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
The season is done.
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
853. beell
12:15 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Well, blog consensus seems to be against me this morning.

I'll stick with 0% in 48 hrs and 10% thereafter.

What do I have to lose?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16895
852. wunderkidcayman
12:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 850. StormTrackerScott:
I bet this convection starts wrapping around the developing COC over the next few hours.


Yep it's already having that look
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
851. FOREX
12:10 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 848. StormTrackerScott:
I just heard an interview from Kanye West and man this guy has lost his marbles.


he's been a loser for years now.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
850. StormTrackerScott
12:08 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
I bet this convection starts wrapping around the developing COC over the next few hours.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3925
849. unknowncomic
12:08 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 845. StormTrackerScott:


You mean 80 for an "Artic Blast" right?
Yep, high of 80 instead of 90.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
848. StormTrackerScott
12:07 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
I just heard an interview from Kanye West and man this guy has lost his marbles.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3925
847. StormTrackerScott
12:06 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
The shear over 97L vanished over the last 24 hours.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3925
846. wunderkidcayman
12:05 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Good morning guys see I told y'all to just got it some time it's starting to look a lot better already I think we may very well see a % raised
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
845. StormTrackerScott
12:04 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 840. unknowncomic:
Once we get an Artic blast it will be done(November?).


You mean 80 for an "Artic Blast" right?
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3925
844. StormTrackerScott
12:03 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
97L is tightening up on the mimic

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3925
843. unknowncomic
12:03 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Looking aat this 97L could take a west route or recurve into w FL. Of course this will change in the future.

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842. StormTrackerScott
12:02 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Dry air in the Gulf is fading.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3925
841. GatorWX
12:01 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3787
840. unknowncomic
12:00 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 838. StormTrackerScott:
I am beginning to think there will be no end to the rain here in FL. The models are showing a tremendous amount of rain of already a water logged state.

GGEM
Once we get an Artic blast it will be done(November?).
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
839. StormTrackerScott
12:00 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
97L did some work last night! Expect an increase in the percentages later on today.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3925
838. StormTrackerScott
11:58 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
I am beginning to think there will be no end to the rain here in FL. The models are showing a tremendous amount of rain of already a water logged state.

GGEM
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3925
837. StormTrackerScott
11:55 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
One thing is for certain is that it looks wet across C & S FL this week.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3925
836. Sfloridacat5
11:55 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
The size of a storm has a lot to to with the amount of damage vs. intensity of the storm.

Sandy is the best example of that. A very large windfield with a large storm surge, yet not very strong (based on cat 1-5).

Then there much smaller (yet very intense)storms like Andrew that have the wind potential to cause great distruction and death.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8338
835. barbamz
11:54 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Vietnamese authorities evacuate thousands as typhoon hits
Australia network news, updated 16 minutes ago

Vietnamese authorities have evacuated thousands of people from high-risk coastal areas after a powerful typhoon hit the country.

Vietnam's National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Center said Typhoon Wutip hit Vietnam's central coast packing winds of up to 103 kilometres per hour.

Authorities closed schools, ordered all boats ashore and moved 70,000 people to shelters.

High winds and heavy rains uprooted trees and tore the roofs off houses.

It comes after China deployed navy warships and aircraft to search for survivors after three Chinese fishing boats sank in rough waters whipped up by Typhoon Wutip.

Chinese state media reported more than 70 people fishermen were missing in the South China Sea. ...


Whole report see link above.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6307
834. SLU
11:54 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 823. GatorWX:


No doubt, it looks like a ts to me. Convection has held up well through the night. I was a little surprised when I got up and after looking at sats, realized it wasn't yet.


Classical sheared tropical storm signature with very cold cloud tops. There's a good chance given the convection that it's generating winds of 40 - 45mph.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5362
833. unknowncomic
11:53 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 827. Relix:
Models have been hinting for a while a N.Leewards impact around the 15 of Oct.
Still seems like lingering higher pressure
in the tropics. Could bring in a "low-rider" storm.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
832. GeoffreyWPB
11:53 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
From the Miami NWS Disco...

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST EXHIBITS HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF JAMAICA
IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE BY THE TIME THE DISTURBANCE REACHES
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST MODELS
OFFER LITTLE AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND ITS
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA...IF ANY...ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. A NUMBER
OF MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF...WHILE A FEW OTHERS HAVE
A MORE EASTWARD TRACK AND CLOSER TO FLORIDA.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11451
831. unknowncomic
11:51 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
74 people missing after Chinese fishing boats sink during typhoon.

Link
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830. StormTrackerScott
11:51 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
97L looking much better this morning now that shear has let up.



Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3925
829. GeoffreyWPB
11:49 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11451
828. barbamz
11:49 AM GMT on September 30, 2013

Interesting microwave satellite loop of large-eyed Wutip making landfall in poor Vietnam.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6307
827. Relix
11:49 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Models have been hinting for a while a N.Leewards impact around the 15 of Oct.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
826. unknowncomic
11:47 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Impressive High Pressure for October.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
825. allancalderini
11:46 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 820. VR46L:
ActualLY looks like something in RBTOP.....



Should be upgrade to Jerry,even though is horrible looking.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
824. unknowncomic
11:43 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Probably won't happen, but impressive looking.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
823. GatorWX
11:43 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 821. SLU:
The last thing the NHC should be doing in a year like this is to potentially rob us of another tropical storm IMO.

Excerpt:

SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH SAB
REPORTED A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT. ADT VALUES ARE T2.8/41 KT
AND A 02032Z OSCAT PASS CONTAINED SOME RAIN-FREE 30-35 KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS
VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF
THIS SYSTEM GOING THROUGH SPORADIC CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASES...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT WITH THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL
BEING INCREASED TO 45 KT UNTIL A MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.


No doubt, it looks like a ts to me. Convection has held up well through the night. I was a little surprised when I got up and after looking at sats, realized it wasn't yet.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3787
822. GatorWX
11:40 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 820. VR46L:
ActualLY looks like something in RBTOP.....





...cept the center is exposed on the west side.

ADT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1007.1mb/ 37.0kt
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3787
821. SLU
11:39 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
The last thing the NHC should be doing in a year like this is to potentially rob us of another tropical storm IMO.

Excerpt:

SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH SAB
REPORTED A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT. ADT VALUES ARE T2.8/41 KT
AND A 02032Z OSCAT PASS CONTAINED SOME RAIN-FREE 30-35 KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS
VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF
THIS SYSTEM GOING THROUGH SPORADIC CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASES...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT WITH THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL
BEING INCREASED TO 45 KT UNTIL A MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5362
820. VR46L
11:38 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
ActualLY looks like something in RBTOP.....



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
819. Civicane49
11:37 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
818. IKE
11:36 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TODAY...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
817. GatorWX
11:36 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
You're up early Pat, good morning
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3787
816. Patrap
11:29 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 813. CybrTeddy:

Must be, "only category 3 or higher is significant."
More damage to the US has been done in the last 8 years than in history.


Yuppers, fo sho.

I mean, if ya using the SSS for "Impact", its designed for wind loading on Structures and is a very, very poor scale for overall impact, as most learned ones know.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
815. CybrTeddy
11:28 AM GMT on September 30, 2013

Quoting 811. AnthonyJKenn:

I lived through Gustav personally, and I'm sure Irene and Ike were pretty bad..but they still weren't officially majors.
You're going of the flawed logic of the SSHS, try to use the IKE scales or the HSI scales to judge severity. Most of the damage was done by surge -- especially Ike and Sandy, which stand as the 3rd and 2nd most destructive hurricanes in US history, respectively. 
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
814. Patrap
11:28 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
11L

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
813. CybrTeddy
11:27 AM GMT on September 30, 2013

Quoting 808. Patrap:
Its called Saffir-Simpson Scale-itis CT.

Must be, "only category 3 or higher is significant."
More damage to the US has been done in the last 8 years than in history.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
812. Torito
11:26 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 810. GatorWX:


I guess just the flash loops aren't working, for me anyway.


Click the links for 11L under that erroneous message and use the floater gifs. :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
811. AnthonyJKenn
11:26 AM GMT on September 30, 2013

Quoting 801. CybrTeddy:

Do you not count Ike, Gustav, and Irene? Those were very significant and more destructive than many major hurricanes.
I lived through Gustav personally, and I'm sure Irene and Ike were pretty bad..but they still weren't officially majors.
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 209
810. GatorWX
11:25 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Quoting 805. Torito:
11L



I guess just the flash loops aren't working, for me anyway.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3787
809. Torito
11:25 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
WUTIP MAKES LANDFALL:

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
808. Patrap
11:25 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Its called Saffir-Simpson Scale-itis CT.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
807. Torito
11:24 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
97L

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.