Landmark 2013 IPCC Report: 95% Chance Most of Global Warming is Human-Caused

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:50 AM GMT on September 27, 2013

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"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased." Thus opens the landmark 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report issued today. Working without pay, hundreds of our most dedicated and talented climate experts have collaborated over a six-year period to create the most comprehensive and authoritative scientific document on climate change ever crafted. The first 31 pages of what will be a 4,000-page tome was released this morning after an all-night approval session that stretched until 6:30 this morning in Stockholm, Sweden. This "Summary For Policymakers" lays out a powerful scientific case that significant climate change with severe impacts is already occurring, humans are mostly responsible, the pace of climate change is expected to accelerate, and we can make choices to cut emission of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases that will limit the damage.

Q: How much has the planet warmed, and what has caused the warming?
The report documents that Earth's surface temperature warmed by 0.85°C (1.5°F) between 1880 - 2012. Two-thirds of this warming (0.6°C, 1.1°F) came after 1950. Human-emitted heat-trapping gases likely were responsible for 0.5 - 1.3°C of this post-1950 warming, while human-emitted aerosol particles reflected away sunlight and likely caused cooling (-0.6° - 0.1°C change in temperature.) Climate change due to variations in solar energy, volcanic dust, and natural sources of heat-trapping greenhouse gases were likely responsible for a small -0.1° - 0.1°C change in temperature since 1950. The sun was in a cool phase between 1978 - 2011, and the report estimates that lower solar output cooled Earth's climate slightly during this period. The influence of cosmic rays on climate over the past century was to weak to be detected, they said. In short, the report shows little support for a significant natural component to global warming since 1950. In fact, natural effects may well have made Earth cooler than it otherwise would have been. The report says that "The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period." In other words, close to 100% of the observed warming is due to humans.


Figure 1. The changing view of the IPCC's assessment reports on the human contribution to climate change.

Q: How have the IPCC reports changed through time?
1990: The report did not quantify the human contribution to global warming.

1995: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on climate."

2001: Human-emitted greenhouse gases are likely (67-90% chance) responsible for more than half of Earth's temperature increase since 1951.

2007: Human-emitted greenhouse gases are very likely (at least 90% chance) responsible for more than half of Earth's temperature increase since 1951.

2013: Human-emitted greenhouse gases are extremely likely (at least 95% chance) responsible for more than half of Earth's temperature increase since 1951. This is the same confidence that scientists have in the age of the universe, or that cigarettes are deadly, according to an excellent AP article published this week by Seth Borenstein.

Q: Did the new report change the plausible range of global warming?
A. Yes. The "climate sensitivity" is defined as how much the planet would warm if the amount of atmospheric CO2 doubled. A variety of studies have arrived at very different estimates of the exact CO2 sensitivity of the climate, and the 2007 IPCC report gave a range of the most plausible values: 2 to 4.5ºC, with 3ºC deemed the most likely value. Recent research indicates that a sensitivity as low as 1.5ºC may be possible, so the IPCC widened the range of the most plausible values: 1.5 to 4.5ºC. The new lower limit of 1.5ºC is a best-case scenario that appears no more likely than the high end of 4.5ºC. Furthermore, even the lowest sensitivity scenario would not negate the need for emissions reductions. Current trends show that emissions are on track to increase far beyond doubling, which would create dangerous temperature rise even in a low-sensitivity climate. (Note that they give a small but worrisome possibility--0 to 10% chance--that the climate could warm by more than 6ºC for a doubling of CO2.)


Figure 2. Average of NASA's GISS, NOAA"s NCDC, and the UK Met Office's HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature departures from average, from January 1970 through November 2012 (blue), with linear trends applied to the time frames Jan '70 - Oct '77, Apr '77 - Dec '86, Sep '87 - Nov '96, Jun '97 - Dec '02, Nov '02 - Nov '12. Climate change skeptics like to emphasize the shorter term fluctuations in global temperatures (blue lines) and ignore the long-term climate trend (red line.) The global surface temperature trend from January 1970 through November 2012 (red line) is +0.16°C (+0.29°F) per decade. Image credit: skepticalscience.com.

Q: What does the IPCC say about the "speed bump" in surface global warming over the past 10 - 15 years?
Much attention has been given in the press to the fact that the rate of surface warming over the past fifteen years has been slower than during previous decades. The report notes that due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012) of 0.05 °C per decade, which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 of 0.12 °C per decade. However, the recent slow-down in surface warming is likely to be a mere "speed bump" on the highway of global warming, caused by natural variability. We have seen such "speed bumps" before, as well as short, sharp downhill stretches where surface warming speeds up. For example, climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf writes at realclimate.org that "the warming trend of the 15-year period up to 2006 was almost twice as fast as expected (0.3°C per decade), and (rightly) nobody cared. We published a paper in Science in 2007 where we noted this large trend, and as the first explanation for it we named “intrinsic variability within the climate system”. Which it turned out to be." Physics demands that the massive amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide humans have dumped into the atmosphere must cause significant warming, but the chaotic complexity of the system is expected to obscure the magnitude of the long-term trend on time scales of a few years to a decade. The attention being to this latest "speed bump" on the highway of global warming is a direct result of a well-funded PR effort by the fossil fuel industry. One has to look at the total warming of the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice to judge the true progress of global warming, not just the surface temperature. There has been no slowdown in total global warming when we regard this entire system, as I argued in a post earlier this year. More than 90% of the energy of global warming goes into the oceans, and the reason for the relative lack of surface warming this decade is that more heat than usual is being stored in the oceans. That heat will be released to the atmosphere at some point, removing the "speed bump".

The new IPCC report says that there is medium confidence that the "speed bump" in surface warming is due in roughly equal measure to natural multi-year unpredictable variability in the weather, and to changes in the amount of sunlight reaching the surface due to volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the current solar cycle. Most of the climate models do not reproduce this lower surface warming rate during the past 10 - 15 years. There is medium confidence that this difference between models and observations is due to natural climate variability that is impossible to predict (for example, the El Niño/La Niña cycle), with possible contributions from the models' inadequate handling of volcanic eruptions, changes in solar output, and changes in light-reflecting aerosol particles, and, in some models, a too-strong response to heat-trapping gases. For an explanation of why arguments about the global warming “slowdown” are misleading and should not offer any consolation, see this explainer from Skeptical Science and this one from the Union for Concerned Scientists.

Q: What does the IPCC say about drought?
A: Drought and reduction in water availability due to decreased mountain snow and ice is the greatest threat civilization faces from climate change, since it attacks the two things we need to live--water and food. Unfortunately, the report makes no mention of drought in the text, and we will have to wait for the March 2014 release of the "impacts" portion of the report to hear more about the threat drought poses to society. Today's report does mention drought in one of their two tables, giving “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have already observed a human-caused increase in the intensity and/or duration of drought in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in confidence from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) However, the forecast for the future is the same as in the 2007 report: we are likely to see dry areas get dryer due to human-caused climate change by 2100. In particular, there is high confidence (80%) in likely surface drying in the Mediterranean, Southwest U.S., and Southern Africa by 2100 in the high-end emissions scenario (RCP8.5), in association with expected increases in surface temperatures and a shift in the atmospheric circulation that will expand the region of sinking air that creates the world's greatest deserts.

Q: What does the IPCC say about sea level rise?
A: Global average sea level has risen 7.5" (19 cm) since 1901. Sea level has accelerated to 1.5" (3.2 cm) per decade over the past 20 years--nearly double the rate of rise during the 20th century. The report projects that sea level will rise by an extra 0.9 - 3.2' (26 to 98 cm) by 2100. While the maximum sea level rise expected has gone up since the 2007 report, when the IPCC did not even consider melt from Greenland and Antarctica because of the primitive state of glacier science then, the new upper bound (3.2') is still is a very conservative number. IPCC decided not to include estimates from at least five published studies that had higher numbers, including two studies with rises of 2 meters (6.6 feet.) This is in contradiction to NOAA's December 2012 U.S. National Climate Assessment Report, which has 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) as its worst-case sea level rise scenario for 2100. Even this number may be too low; at a presentation Thursday in New York City for Climate Week, glaciologist Dr. Jason Box, who knows as much about Greenland's ice sheets as any person alive, explained that Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise doubled over the past ten years. If Greenland's melt rate continues to double every ten years until 2100, Greenland alone will contribute 4.6' (1.4 meters) of global sea level rise, he said. If the doubling time becomes every nine years, then Greenland will cause 16.4' (5 meters) of sea level rise by 2100. His best-guess number for global sea level rise by 2100 is 4.7' (1.5 meters), but warns that our models used to predict melting of ice of Greenland have large unknowns.

Long-term sea level rise is expected to be much greater. The IPCC report states with "very high confidence" that 119,000 - 126,000 years ago, during the period before the most recent ice age, sea levels were 16 - 33 feet (5 - 10 meters) higher than at present. Melting of Greenland "very likely" contributed 1.4 - 4.3 meters of this rise, with additional contributions coming from Antarctica. Temperatures at that time weren't more than 2°C warmer than "pre-industrial" levels during that period. Two of the four scenarios used for the report project we will exceed 2°C of warming by 2100, with "high confidence", raising the possibility that we could see sea level rises of many meters over time scales of 1,000 years or so. The report expects sea level rise reach 3.3 - 9.8' (1 - 3 meters) by 2300, assuming CO2 levels rise above 700 ppm (close to what the higher-end RCP6.0 scenario prescribes.)

Q: What does the IPCC say about ocean acidity?
A: The world's oceans have seen a 26% increase in acidity since the Industrial Revolution, as the average pH has dropped from 8.2 to 8.1. Under all report scenarios, the acidification of the world's oceans will increase, with the pH falling by another 0.06 - 0.32 units. According to a 2012 study in Science, the current acidification rate is likely the fastest in 300 million years, and "may have severe consequences for marine ecosystems."

Q: How about hurricanes?
A: The new report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

Q: How about extreme weather events?
"Changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950. It is very likely that the number of cold days and nights have decreased and the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global scale. It is likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia, and Australia. There are likely more land regions where the number of heavy precipitation events has increased than where it has decreased. The frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation events has likely increased in North America and Europe." The report made no mention of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, since the uncertainties of how they have behaved in the past and how climate change might affect them in the future are too great.

Q: What does the IPCC say about a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario?
A: In the disaster movie "The Day After Tomorrow", the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)--the ocean current system of which the Gulf Stream Current is a part of--collapses, causing a rapid and extreme change in climate. A collapse of the AMOC is very unlikely (0 - 10% chance) before 2100 according to the report, but cannot be ruled out beyond the 21st century. A weakening of the AMOC by about 11 - 34% by 2100 is expected in the moderate RCP4.5 scenario, where CO2 levels reach 538 ppm in 2100. However, these odds assume that Greenland will dump a relatively modest amount of fresh water into the North Atlantic by 2100. If the higher-end sea level rise estimates that the IPCC did not consider as plausible come true, the AMOC will likely slow down much more, with a higher chance of collapse this century. No slow-down in the AMOC has been observed yet, according to the report.

Commentary
As I read though the report, digesting the exhaustive list of changes to Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and ice that have occurred over the past few decades, I was struck by how the IPCC report reads like lab results from a sick hospital patient. The natural systems that civilization depends upon to thrive have been profoundly disturbed, and the forecast for the future reads like a medical diagnosis for an overweight smoker with a heart condition: unless the patient makes major lifestyle changes, the illness will grow far worse, with severe debilitation or death distinct possibilities. We can and we must make the huge effort to turn things around. Oil and natural gas are the energy technologies of the 20th century. Coal is the energy technology of the 19th century. We have countless innovative and dedicated people ready to move us to the energy technology of the 21st century; I heard three of them speak last night at the Climate Week event I am at, and they really gave me some needed hope that we can turn things around. We must elect new leaders and pressure our existing leaders to take the strong actions needed to advance us into a new, 21st century energy economy. You can all help make it so!

Jeff Masters

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1829. Dakster
Quoting 1825. CosmicEvents:
I would not be surprised at all if TD11 became a TD at 11.


Now wouldn't that be funny, eh, Cosmic?
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1828. Xulonn
Quoting 1414. ncstorm:

I want to hear the GW experts admit they were wrong in jumping the gun
snip...I will be checking the blog when I get back for any answers..
You use the term "the experts" but provide no link to any experts. If by "experts" you mean our sizable cohort of knowledgeable WU blog commenters, several have politely tried to answer your questions, and you dismiss them, sometimes rudely. Then you imply that you are not really talking about "experts" per se, but are playing a game of hounding Neapolitan.

You referred to the Skeptical Science website, but posted information from an obscure website called "the Tree" that is an aggregator for climate change and energy information. They quoted some NOAA experts AND one of their editors made that comment about "walloping storms." Unknown aggregation website editors are not "GW Experts" as you claim, and the basis for the comment was based on NOAA publications.

Why don't you be honest and ask "why did the NOAA weather and climate experts get the 2013 hurricane season forecast wrong" instead of warping that fact into a personal vendetta?

Rather than playing games such as hounding Neapolitan, why don't you wait for Dr. Masters, our leader and a true expert on meteorology, hurricanes, global warming and climate change, to provide an analysis of the busted forecast after the season is over and then enter the discussion?
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1734
South Sound, Grand Cayman Photo facing SouthEast.
Amazingly calm day on the water.
Southwest.



Direct South.

Pictures taking about a mile up the road from house, actually across the street from where Kman lives.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8252
Just because there is dry air in the Gulf doesn't mean there is going to be dry air there 5 days from now. Read the NWS discussions and you'll get an idea of what is going to happen.
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Quoting 1802. allancalderini:
Td 11 might be around the corner then.
I would not be surprised at all if TD11 became a TD at 11.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5755
Quoting 1823. GrandCaymanMed:
@Super93- Shear is nonexistent off the Yucatan. Also, the system now has a large moisture envelope. Dry air will not be in issue at all. That moisture envelope will move with it.
have you bothered to look at ALL THE DRY AIR in the gulf?
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@Super93- Shear is nonexistent off the Yucatan. Also, the system now has a large moisture envelope. Dry air will not be in issue at all. That moisture envelope will move with it.
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1822. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132801
61 degrees this morning in Milton Florida. Wish GW would hurry up so I don't have to use my heater in the truck.
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1820. Patrap


Ahhhhhhhhhhhh

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132801
1819. SLU
Quoting 1810. pottery:

What dat ?


shaking my head
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1818. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:



Still there, although you've got to understand the models move around the timeline. Showing it in about 51 hours, or on Monday, approaching the US coast.


Yeah, right. A 1007 low that appears to be headed north on Monday, and is not on track to hit the US east coast anywhere, is the same Nor'easter that had everyone's panties in a wad last weekend. As I remember, that was supposed to be something like a 990 low. But I suppose the new hurricane/Nor'easter will give us something to keep us occupied for the upcoming week. :-)
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1817. SLU
CaribBoy, Tropicsweatherpr, pottery, DDR, Gearst, ryang et al:

Very low rainfall, extremely dry air, very weak easterly winds and high temperatures. Welcome to the Caribbean.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Quoting 1812. GrandCaymanMed:
With mulitple models developing a cyclone in the Western Caribbean I will be paying very close attention this week. The GFS run brings the developing storm very close to Cayman and then into the Gulf. The problem is, whenever a system gets itself over the high TCHP waters of the Caribbean this time of year, it blows up and intensifies rapidly. My concern is the very low shear in the NW Caribbean off the Yucatan. If the developing area currently in the SW Caribbean gets into this area, things could get very nasty for the Caribbean.

People living in the SE US should watch this very closely, especially those in Florida (my relatives live near Tampa). I do think this system has the potential to be a significant hurricane, much stronger than what the GFS is showing, prior to interaction with Cuba or the Yucatan, and then Florida. Afterwards, Florida will need to watch very closely.
shear and dry air will keep the storm in check, TS at best most likely
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1815. FOREX
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Saturday]...From Tallahassee NWS
The long term forecast is tricky as some models shows a tropical
system possible impacting our area later in the period. Hence
overall confidence is low. The period begins with ridging over Ern
states with axis from Canadian Maritimes SSW into AL/GA and a trough
along Ern seaboard. At surface, high pressure dominate se region
with high centered in Nrn TN Valley. Dry beginning except for chance
precip over mainly waters.

The upper ridge will shift Ewd over the wrn Atlc with axis over
Bahamas Thurs into Sat as a strong trough digs SEWD over the Nrn
Plains and Cntrl Rockies and becomes cutoff from the main upper flow
over Nrn tier Conus. The position of Bahamas ridge allows deep
tropical moisture to advect Nwd from Wrn Carib/SE Gulf of Mex around
periphery of ridge. At surface, low may develop over NW Carib/SE
Gulf and gradually lift Nwd over Ern Gulf. Here models diverge with
GFS much more bullish than ECMWF on this scenario. The 12z GFS
develops an area of low pressure over the Carib Sea on Tues, takes
over Haiti on Wed, NEWD across Cntrl FL Thurs night into Fri then
off this coast Fri night. This would likely set up up local area for
sharp NW-SE POP gradient with a good chance of convection and
possibly flooding Ern Big Bend and adjacent waters Thurs into Fri.
Latest ECMWF scenario seems to keep wetter scenario to our west and
southeast and UK Met has also backed off. Until I see more evidence
of model consistency or that the stronger GFS is initializing the
best, I will lean towards weaker scenario and only gradually
increase winds and POPS which follows thinking on surrounding
offices. By Sat Eve ern trough has moves offshore to be replaced by
ridge and a drying trend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1814. FOREX
Quoting 1812. GrandCaymanMed:
With mulitple models developing a cyclone in the Western Caribbean I will be paying very close attention this week. The GFS run brings the developing storm very close to Cayman and then into the Gulf. The problem is, whenever a system gets itself over the high TCHP waters of the Caribbean this time of year, it blows up and intensifies rapidly. My concern is the very low shear in the NW Caribbean off the Yucatan. If the developing area currently in the SW Caribbean gets into this area, things could get very nasty for the Caribbean.

People living in the SE US should watch this very closely, especially those in Florida (my relatives live near Tampa). I do think this system has the potential to be a significant hurricane, much stronger than what the GFS is showing, prior to interaction with Cuba or the Yucatan, and then Florida. Afterwards, Florida will need to watch very closely.




.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Saturday]...
The long term forecast is tricky as some models shows a tropical
system possible impacting our area later in the period. Hence
overall confidence is low. The period begins with ridging over Ern
states with axis from Canadian Maritimes SSW into AL/GA and a trough
along Ern seaboard. At surface, high pressure dominate se region
with high centered in Nrn TN Valley. Dry beginning except for chance
precip over mainly waters.

The upper ridge will shift Ewd over the wrn Atlc with axis over
Bahamas Thurs into Sat as a strong trough digs SEWD over the Nrn
Plains and Cntrl Rockies and becomes cutoff from the main upper flow
over Nrn tier Conus. The position of Bahamas ridge allows deep
tropical moisture to advect Nwd from Wrn Carib/SE Gulf of Mex around
periphery of ridge. At surface, low may develop over NW Carib/SE
Gulf and gradually lift Nwd over Ern Gulf. Here models diverge with
GFS much more bullish than ECMWF on this scenario. The 12z GFS
develops an area of low pressure over the Carib Sea on Tues, takes
over Haiti on Wed, NEWD across Cntrl FL Thurs night into Fri then
off this coast Fri night. This would likely set up up local area for
sharp NW-SE POP gradient with a good chance of convection and
possibly flooding Ern Big Bend and adjacent waters Thurs into Fri.
Latest ECMWF scenario seems to keep wetter scenario to our west and
southeast and UK Met has also backed off. Until I see more evidence
of model consistency or that the stronger GFS is initializing the
best, I will lean towards weaker scenario and only gradually
increase winds and POPS which follows thinking on surrounding
offices. By Sat Eve ern trough has moves offshore to be replaced by
ridge and a drying trend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With mulitple models developing a cyclone in the Western Caribbean I will be paying very close attention this week. The GFS run brings the developing storm very close to Cayman and then into the Gulf. The problem is, whenever a system gets itself over the high TCHP waters of the Caribbean this time of year, it blows up and intensifies rapidly. My concern is the very low shear in the NW Caribbean off the Yucatan. If the developing area currently in the SW Caribbean gets into this area, things could get very nasty for the Caribbean.

People living in the SE US should watch this very closely, especially those in Florida (my relatives live near Tampa). I do think this system has the potential to be a significant hurricane, much stronger than what the GFS is showing, prior to interaction with Cuba or the Yucatan, and then Florida. Afterwards, Florida will need to watch very closely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1811. Hhunter
What does IPCC about the odds of Santa Claus really existing or the Easter Bunny oh and the Tooth ferry.

95% chance they exist I suspect. What a complete crock of Sh$#
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1810. pottery
Quoting SLU:


smh.

What dat ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25523
1809. SLU
Quoting 1779. pottery:
LOLOL, I just checked the Piarco Airport weather station here..

Temp 93F
Humidity 94%
Dew point 91F
Heat index 142F

I wondered why I felt so hot.......


smh.
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Quoting 1801. CybrTeddy:
Fresh round of -80C convection just started firing off on 96L. Let's see if it persists, an upgrade may come at 11pm.
It might Happen right now.
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1807. SLU
Quoting 1755. Tropicsweatherpr:
.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT SAN JUAN`S LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
AIRPORT REACHED 95 DEGREES AT 1818Z THIS AFTERNOON AND TIED THE
RECORD FOR THIS DATE SET IN 1978.


smh.
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sw carib system is not fading away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1789. washingtonian115:
've just gotten back!.I'm very excited!.It is a apple red color:


Um..excuse me but you didnt say it was going to be a James Bond type wagon/ very impressive ..also very jealous LOL
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Quoting 1801. CybrTeddy:
Fresh round of -80C convection just started firing off on 96L. Let's see if it persists, an upgrade may come at 11pm.
it looks horrible though, if that is a TD then we should of had one of the other day
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1803. pottery
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Fresh round of -80C convection just started firing off on 96L. Let's see if it persists, an upgrade may come at 11pm.

Ya think ???
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25523
Quoting 1801. CybrTeddy:
Fresh round of -80C convection just started firing off on 96L. Let's see if it persists, an upgrade may come at 11pm.
Td 11 might be around the corner then.
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Fresh round of -80C convection just started firing off on 96L. Let's see if it persists, an upgrade may come at 11pm.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
1800. JRRP
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1799. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1798. Xulonn
Quoting 1377. ncstorm:


so you have nothing..yesterday and the day before you were a scientist but today you're not..okay..

exactly what I thought..

I will check out that website and let you know what I find out..
Wow! Saying "so you have nothing" in a pouty manner because some doesn't do your ladyships bidding is a bit presumptious - don't you think?

That was a rather snippy comment from someone who complains almost every day about the impoliteness of others.

I don't think taking the time and making the effort to help teach someone how to do their own research - and not bowing to demands of a fellow blog commenter to be a personal tutor - takes away the title of scientist from anyone.
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1734
1797. LargoFl
geez............
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Quoting 1789. washingtonian115:
've just gotten back!.I'm very excited!.It is a apple red color:
What a car,so beautiful take care of it wash.
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1795. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
've just gotten back!.I'm very excited!.It is a apple red color:

Which engine does it have?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25523
1794. LargoFl
UKMET didnt drop it..here 72 hours..at bottom...
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1793. Kyon5

Quoting 1786. FOREX:


Upper level winds are unfavorable right now.
It has an anticyclone over it:





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Quoting Torito:
300 hours out. Potential subtropical system in the central, north atlantic.

and also a low in the Central atlantic, east of the islands...
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1791. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1789. washingtonian115:
've just gotten back!.I'm very excited!.It is a apple red color:


Wow, very sweet. I love that color on that make & model.
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Quoting 1781. superpete:


Are you not supposed to be out on the highways in the new RR? Or possibly now online from dash computer?
SP
've just gotten back!.I'm very excited!.It is a apple red color:
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Quoting 1775. EyEtoEyE:
So does Florida get hit by a hurricane by the end of the week ? It sounds like it!




South....or
Mid....or
North????


Right now where the invest could...Could it be Wilma2??
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1787. centex
AOI is where action is.
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1786. FOREX
Quoting 1784. HuracanTaino:
Yeap, that 's the one I'm talking about...


Upper level winds are unfavorable right now.
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1785. Kyon5

Quoting 1784. HuracanTaino:
Yeap, that 's the one I'm talking about...
ASCAT pass looks interesting:


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Quoting Kyon5:
Has anyone seen the wave currently off Africa?


Yeap, that 's the one I'm talking about...
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Just and observation, there seems to be a bit of a rotation,at a very low lattitude, around 30W,5N,...
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1782. Kyon5
Has anyone seen the wave currently off Africa?


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Quoting 1769. washingtonian115:
I said that Karen would be back for revenge! and by the models (that have tricked us multiple times) are in good agreement on a storm.


Are you not supposed to be out on the highways in the new RR? Or possibly now online from dash computer?
SP
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its starting to get buzy here.
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1779. pottery
LOLOL, I just checked the Piarco Airport weather station here..

Temp 93F
Humidity 94%
Dew point 91F
Heat index 142F

I wondered why I felt so hot.......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25523

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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