Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:15 PM GMT on September 25, 2013

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In the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico, a stalled stationary front is bringing heavy thunderstorms to west-central Florida, where heavy rains of up to six inches have caused flooding problems. A weak area of low pressure along this front will move over the coastal waters several hundred miles offshore of North Carolina by Friday, when an extratropical storm is expected to develop. Ocean temperatures off the North Carolina coast are 26 - 27°C, which is warm enough to help give the storm some extra energy and moisture. However, wind shear will be high, and this storm is expected to stay non-tropical as it heads north-northeast, potentially bringing rainy weather to New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Sunday and Monday. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave no odds that anything tropical would spin up in the next five days. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis predicts development over the next five days, and the Atlantic is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. The next area to watch for development might be the Western Caribbean or the area between the Bahamas and Bermuda next week. However, chances of development will be below average for this time of year, due the fact we are in the suppressed phase of the MJO. This suppressed phase may end by mid-October, increasing the odds of development in about two weeks' time.


Figure 1. All quiet in the Atlantic: The Atlantic remains welcomely quiet at 8:15 am EDT on September 25, 2013, with an unusual lack of heavy thunderstorm activity for this time of year. Image credit: NOAA.

Join me in New York City on Thursday for Climate Week
I write a lot about billion-dollar weather disasters like Hurricane Sandy, the coming great climate disruption, and other "doom-and-gloom" topics. These are important to discuss, but too much talk of disaster can turn people off and make them feel hopeless. Social science research shows that including a positive message along with your science will make people more inclined to believe your science, and it is important to emphasize some of the remarkable solutions on how we can lessen and adapt to climate change that technology and entrepreneurship are coming up with. This Thursday afternoon, I am moderating a panel discussion in New York City on some innovative ways to combat climate change. It's part of Climate Week, which culminates Friday with the release of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which is released only once every six years. You can register to attend Thursday's free event here. The session begins at 2 pm with remarks by David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Company, followed by guest speaker Mayor Bloomberg. My "New Frontiers" panel is at 5:40 pm.



Jeff Masters

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Only 150 years of weather history?

Me tink's you's should use da google on dat un.

You may learn sumting'




List of Arctic expeditions
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article is incomplete. Please help to improve the article, or discuss the issue on the talk page. (February 2009)
This list of Arctic expeditions is a timeline of historic expeditions in, and explorers of, the Arctic.

Contents [hide]
1 Pre-expedition
2 1400s
3 1500s
4 1600s
5 1700s
6 1800s
7 1900s
8 2000s
9 See also
10 References
11 Further reading
Pre-expedition[edit source]

Inuit, Greek, and Viking voyages in the far north ( Faroes/Greenland/Novaya Zemlya )
1400s[edit source]

1496 Russian G. Istoma venturing out of the White Sea explores Murman Coast and coast of northern Norway, also western coast of Novaya Zemlya
1497 Russians D. Zaytsev and D. Ralev venturing out of the White Sea follow route of G. Istoma
1500s[edit source]

1553 English expedition piloted by Richard Chancellor searches for the North-east Passage
1575–77 English expeditions led by Martin Frobisher reaches Baffin Island
1579 Danish expedition led by John Allday fails to reach Greenland due to ice
1585–87 English expeditions led by John Davis explore the Davis Strait-Baffin Bay region and reaches Upernavik
1596–97 Dutch expedition piloted by Willem Barentsz discovers Spitsbergen
1600s[edit source]

1605–07 Danish expeditions led by John Cunningham, Godske Lindenov and Carsten Richardson (all piloted by James Hall), search for the lost Norse colonies on Greenland
1606 John Knight dies commanding an English expedition in search of the Northwest Passage
1607 Henry Hudson explores Spitsbergen
1610 Jonas Poole thoroughly explores Spitsbergen's west coast, reporting that he saw a "great store of whales"; this report leads to the establishment of the English whaling trade.
1610 Russian K. Kurochkin explores mouth of the Yenesei River and adjoining coast
1612 James Hall and William Baffin explores Southwest Greenland
1612–1613 British Button Expedition
1613 Several whaling expeditions, consisting of a total of at least thirty ships, from England, France, Spain, and the Netherlands crowd Spitsbergen's west coast.
1614 Dutch and French expeditions discover Jan Mayen
1615 Robert Fotherby, in the pinnace Richard, is the first English expedition to reach Jan Mayen
1616 English expedition piloted by William Baffin explores Davis Strait-Baffin Bay region
1619–20 Danish expedition led by Jens Munk in Enhiörningen (Unicorn) and Lamprenen (Lamprey) to discover the Northwest Passage penetrated Davis Strait as far north as 69°, found Frobisher Bay, spent a winter in Hudson Bay.
1633-34 I. Rebrov explores the mouth of the Lena River
1633-35 I. Perfilyev explores Lena and Yana Rivers and intervening coast
1638 I. Rebrov explores coast between the Lena and Indigirka Rivers
1641 D.M. Zyryan and M.V. Stadukhin explore mouth of the Indigirka River and adjoining coast
1646 I. Ignatyev explores explores the mouth of the Kolyma River and adjoining coast
1648 Ya. Semyonov explores mouth of Kotuy River and adjoining coast
1648 Semyon Dezhnyov and Fedot Alekseyev explore from the Kolyma River through the Bering Strait
1649 M.V. Stadukhin explores coast from Kolyma River to Bering Strait
1686-1687 Bezvestnaya Expedition explores the coast of Taymyr Peninsula
1700s[edit source]

Vitus Bering
1712 M. Vagin and Ya. Permyakov explore vicinity of mouth of Yana River and adjoining coast
1733–43 Great Northern Expedition / Second Kamchatka expedition explores coast from the Ob River to the Lena River
1751–53 Peder Olsen Walløe explores the east coast of Greenland from Cape Farewell in umiaks
1760-63 S.F. Loshkin explores Novaya Zemlya
1765-66 V.Ya. Chichagov explores Kola Peninsula coast and Spitzbergen
1768-69 F.F. Rozmyslov explores Novaya Zemlya and Matochkin Shar Strait
1773 Captain Constantine Phipps in HMS Carcass and Commander Skeffington Lutwidge in HMS Racehorse reach 80° 37' N, with a young Midshipman Horatio Nelson among the crew.[1]
1800s[edit source]

1809-11 M.M. Gedenshtorm explores New Siberian Islands
1818 Royal Navy expedition led by Captain David Buchan[2]
1818 Royal Navy expedition led by John Ross to search for the Northwest Passage extended a far north along the west coast of Greenland as Pituffik and met the Kap York-Inuit
1819 Royal Navy expedition aboard HMS Hecla and HMS Griper led by William Edward Parry[3]
1820-24 F.P. Wrangel explores east Siberian coast from mouth of the Kolyma River to the Bering Strait
1821-24 F.P. Litke explores eastern Barents and west coast of Novaya Zemlya, including Matochkin Shar
1821-23 P.F. Anzhu continues exploration of New Siberian Islands
1822 William Scoresby lands in East Greenland near the mouth of the fjord system that would later be named for him – Scoresby Sund.
1823 Douglas Charles Clavering and Edward Sabine explores East Greenland northwards to Clavering Island, where they get in contact with the now extinct Northeast Greenland Inuit.
1826 F. Beechy aboard "Blossom" explores Alaskan coast from Point Barrow to the Bering Strait
1827 First Norwegian expedition to the Arctic, lead by Baltazar M. Keilhau.
1827 Royal Navy expedition to Spitsbergen led by William Edward Parry reaches 82°45’N [4]
1828–30 Danish expedition led by W. A. Graah tries to locate the lost Norse colonies in Southeast Greenland, but does not reach Ammassalik Island.
1829–33 Royal Navy expedition led by John Ross to search for the Northwest Passage discovered James Ross Strait and King William Land, located the magnetic north pole at 70°05′N 96°44′W
1833 P.K. Pastukhov explores southern half of eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya
1833–35 Royal Navy expedition led by Captain George Back[5]
1838–40 La Recherche Expedition (1838-1840)
1845 Franklin's lost expedition led by Sir John Franklin searches for the Northwest Passage.
1848 Rae-Richardson Arctic Expedition searched overland for Franklin's lost expedition.
1850 McClure Arctic Expedition led by Robert McClure, a British search for the members of Franklin's lost expedition.
1850–51 First Grinnell Expedition led by Edwin DeHaven, first American search for the members of Franklin's lost expedition.
1852 Edward Augustus Inglefield sets out to search for Franklin's ill-fated expedition
1853–55 American expedition led by Elisha Kent Kane[6]
1857–59 British expedition led by Francis Leopold McClintock
1860–61 American expedition led by Isaac Israel Hayes
1860–62 First expedition led by Charles Francis Hall (USA)
1864–69 Second expedition led by Charles Francis Hall
1868 First German North Polar Expedition led by Carl Koldewey along the east coast of Greenland
1869–70 Second German North Polar Expedition (Germania and Hansa) led by Carl Koldewey reaches Sabine Island.
1871–73 Third expedition led by Charles Francis Hall: Polaris expedition
1872–74 Austro-Hungarian North Pole Expedition led by Captain Karl Weyprecht
1875–76 British Arctic Expedition led by Captain George Nares
1876–78 Norwegian Northern Seas Expedition in Vøringen explored the Northern Atlantic up to 80°N.
1878 J. A. D. Jensen explores the inland ice sheeth from West Greenland
1878-1881 different voyages with Dutch polar schooner Willem Barents in the area around Spitsbergen and Nova Zembla, organised by Geographical Society of Amsterdam. Goals were 1) placing memorial stones for 17th century Dutch discoveries and 2) scientific research.
1878–79 Swedish Vega expedition, led by Adolf Erik Nordenskiöld
1879–82 USS Jeanette expedition with Lt. George Washington De Long (commander) and George W. Melville (chief engineer)[7]
1881–84 Lady Franklin Bay Expedition, US Army expedition led by Adolphus Greely
1882–1883 (First International Polar Year) Danish Dijmphna expedition to the territory between Russia and the North Pole
1883–85 Umiak Expedition led by Gustav Holm and Thomas Vilhelm Garde along the southeastern coast of Greenland in the shallow waters between the coast and the sea ice.
1883 Failed attempt by Nordenskiöld to cross Greenland from the west
1886 Failed attempt by Robert E Peary (USA) to cross Greenland
1888-89 First successful crossing of the Greenland inland ice by Norwegian expedition led by Fridtjof Nansen (from east to west)
1891–92 The East Greenland Expedition on the Hekla led by Carl Ryder fails to get through the sea ice of East Greenland, but explores the Scoresby Sund system in detail
1891–92 Third US Greenland expedition led by Peary.
1892 Swedish expedition led by Alfred Björling
1893–95 Fourth US Greenland expedition led by Peary
1893–96 Norwegian expedition by Fridtjof Nansen and Hjalmar Johansen on the Fram and over ice towards the North Pole.
1894–97 Jackson-Harmsworth Expedition, led by Frederick George Jackson
1897 S. A. Andrée's Arctic balloon expedition
1898–1902 Second Fram voyage under Otto Sverdrup
1898–1900 The Carlsbergfund Expedition to East Greenland led by G. C. Amdrup explores the Blosseville Coast
1899 Alfred Gabriel Nathorst explores the fjords of Northeast Greenland, in particular the King Oscar Fjord system
1899 Attempt to ski to North Pole from Franz Josef Land by Walter Wellman
1899–1900 Italian North Pole expedition led by Luigi Amedeo, Duke of the Abruzzi on the ship Stella Polare
1900s[edit source]

1898, 1899, 1906, 1907 Prince Albert I's Arctic Exploration with Princesse Alice
1900–03 Russian ship Zarya
1901–02 First North Pole expedition financed by US industrialist William Ziegler, led by Evelyn Baldwin
1902–04 The Literary Expedition led by Ludvig Mylius-Erichsen together with Knud Rasmussen explores the Northwest Greenland coast between Uumanaq and Thule
1903–06 Amundsen's ''Gjøa'' Expedition when Roald Amundsen traversed the Northwest Passage for the first time
1903–05 Ziegler Polar Expedition overland, led by Anthony Fiala
1905–06 North Pole expedition led by Robert Peary, from Ellesmere Island
1906–08 The Danmark Expedition led by Ludvig Mylius-Erichsen reaches Nordostrundingen, but ends fatally
1906, 1907, 1909 The airship America and Walter Wellman
1906–08 Anglo-American Polar Expedition (Mikkelsen-Leffingwell Expedition)
1907–09 US North Pole expedition led by Frederick Cook
1909–12 The Alabama Expedition to Northeast Greenland led by Ejnar Mikkelsen in an operation to recover bodies and logs of the fatal Danmark expedition
1908–09 expedition led by Robert Peary
1910–15 Russian Arctic Ocean Hydrographic Expedition in Taymyr and Vaigach
1912 First Thule Expedition – Knud Rasmussen and Peter Freuchen explores North Greenland
1912–13 J.P. Koch crosses the inland ice in North Greenland
1912–15 Brusilov Expedition, ill-fated expedition led by Captain Georgy Brusilov
1913 Crocker Land Expedition
1913–14 Russian expedition aboard Foka, led by Georgiy Sedov
1913–18 Canadian Arctic Expedition 1913-1916 led by Vilhjalmur Stefansson, initially in the Karluk
1916–18 Second Thule Expedition – Knud Rasmussen and Peter Freuchen explores North Greenland and establishes that Peary Land is not an island
1918–25 Roald Amundsen traversed the Northeast Passage with Maud
1919 Third Thule Expedition – Knud Rasmussen explores North Greenland and lays out depots for Roald Amundsen's polar drift in Maud
1919–20 Fourth Thule Expedition – Knud Rasmussen explores East Greenland
1921–23 Bicentenary Jubilee Expedition (commemorating Hans Egede's landing in Greenland) led by Lauge Koch explores North Greenland
1921–24 Fifth Thule Expedition led by Knud Rasmussen crossed the Northwest Passage on dog sledges from Thule across Arctic Canada to Nome, Alaska demonstrates how inuit culture could spread rapidly
1925 Flying boat expedition led by Roald Amundsen and Lincoln Ellsworth
1926 Aircraft flight by Richard E. Byrd and Floyd Bennett
1926 The airship Norge (Roald Amundsen, Umberto Nobile and Lincoln Ellsworth)
1928 Eielson-Wilkins Arctic Ocean crossing (powered flight Alaska-Spitsbergen)
1928 The airship Italia (Umberto Nobile)
1930 Bratvaag Expedition to Franz Josef Land, found long lost remains of S. A. Andrée's expedition.
1931 Sir Hubert Wilkins with submarine Nautilus (failed 800 km south of the pole).
1931 Sixth Thule Expedition led by Knud Rasmussen explores Northeast Greenland
1931–34 The Three-year Expedition to East Greenland led by Lauge Koch explores Northeast Greenland
1932 Icebreaker Sibiryakov
1933 Russian steamship Chelyuskin
1937 Soviet transpolar flights
1937–1938 MacGregor Arctic Expedition
1938–present Soviet and Russian manned drifting ice stations
1948 Russian scientific expedition led by Aleksandr Kuznetsov lands aircraft at Pole
1958 USS Nautilus passes under the Arctic ice
1959 Discoverer 1 first satellite in polar orbit. (Prototype; no camera.)
1960 Tiros 1 weather satellite in polar orbit; eventually returned 22952 cloud cover photos
1968 Ralph Plaisted and three others reach the north pole by snowmobile.
1968–69 Wally Herbert, British explorer, reaches Pole on foot and traverses the polar sea
1977 Arktika, nuclear-powered icebreaker, reaches the North Pole
1982 Sir Ranulph Fiennes and Charles Burton cross the Arctic Ocean in a single season.
1986 Will Steger and party reach the north pole by dogsled without resupply.
1988 Will Steger completes first south-north traverse of Greenland.
1988 Ski-Trek a joint Soviet-Canadian transpolar expedition aided by satellites.
1992 Scientific environmental expedition; crossing of the Greenland inland ice by Japanese expedition led by Kenji Yoshikawa (from east to west)
1994 Shane Lundgren led expedition began in Moscow and proceeded north of the Arctic Circle across Siberia to Magadan.
1995 Smithsonian Institution's Arctic Studies Center joined Shane Lundgren in a flying expedition to chronicle indigenous people from Yakutsk to Alaska across the Bering Straits. Discovery Online was launched through this expedition.
1955 Marek Kamiński unsupported walked to the North Pole on 23 May 1995 (27 December 1995, he reached the South Pole alone)
2000s[edit source]

2004 Together to the Pole - a Polish four-man expedition led by Marek Kamiński, with Jan Mela (a teenage double amputee, who in the same year reached also the South Pole)
2004 Five members of the Ice Warrior Squad reach the Geomagnetic North Pole, including the first two women in history to do so.
2007 Arktika 2007, Russian submersible descends to the ocean floor below the North Pole.
2007 Top Gear: Polar Special, BBC's Top Gear team are the first to reach the magnetic North Pole in a car.
2008 Alex Hibbert and George Bullard complete Tiso Trans Greenland expedition. The longest fully unsupported expedition in history at 1374 statute miles.
See also[edit source]

Arctic exploration
Cartographic expeditions to Greenland
Farthest North
North Pole
Territorial claims in the Arctic
History of research ships
List of Antarctic expeditions
List of Russian explorers
References[edit source]

[8]

Jump up ^ E. C. Coleman (2006). The Royal Navy in Polar Exploration: From Frobisher to Ross. Tempus. pp. 65–77. ISBN 978-0-7524-3660-9. Retrieved 22 October 2012.
Jump up ^ Beechey, F. W. (1843). A Voyage Of Discovery Towards The North Pole, Performed In His Majesty's Ships Dorothea And Trent, Under The Command Of Captain David Buchan, R. N., 1818. London: Richard Bentley. Retrieved 2009-08-15.
Jump up ^ *An Officer Of The Expedition (1821). Letters Written During The Later Voyage Of Discovery In The Western Arctic Sea. London: Sir Richard Phillips And Co. Retrieved 2009-08-15.
Jump up ^ "Polar Discovery". Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Retrieved May 20, 2013.
Jump up ^ King, Richard (1836). Narrative Of A Journey To The Shores Of The Arctic Ocean In 1833, 1834, and 1835; Under The Command Of Capt. Back, R. N., Volume I. London: Richard Bentley. Retrieved 2009-08-15. King, Richard (1836). Narrative Of A Journey To The Shores Of The Arctic Ocean In 1833, 1834, and 1835; Under The Command Of Capt. Back, R. N., Volume II. London: Richard Bentley. Retrieved 2009-08-15.
Jump up ^ Sonntag, August (1865). Professor Sonntag's Thrilling Narrative Of The Grinnell Exploring Expedition To The Arctic Ocean In The Years 1853, 1854, and 1855 In Se
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553. SLU
Quoting 549. BahaHurican:
This is actually the kind of season I was expecting this year. What r we missing from 2008 this year?


Yep .. I predicted a cataclysmic year for the Caribbean and the US with several landfalling major hurricanes based on the 500mb pattern in the earlier stages of the season but fortunately that has busted.

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Quoting 548. SLU:


I'd say an SST profile like this with no EL Nino could easily support a 16-8-5 kind of season like 2008.



'08 was the best.
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First hard frost and first forecast with snow this Thursday/Friday... bring it on! (My wife and I are both ready for allergy season to end).



The above is from my wunderground Nederland, CO weather email. Strangely, the local forecast on the wunderground page for Nederland calls for a lower low on Friday (27 F), but rain, instead of snow.



Go figure...
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OK there is a lot of people on this blog that do not understand that everyear is not 2004 or 2005! There are down years and if you beleave in History look it up! Models are not always right and so call experts are not allways right (GW). Weather is just that it can change in a heart beat and no one know's what may happen we only have about 150 years of real records and that's only a drop in the bucket when it comes to Weather History!!!
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Quoting 548. SLU:


I'd say an SST profile like this with no EL Nino could easily support a 16-8-5 kind of season like 2008.

This is actually the kind of season I was expecting this year. What r we missing from 2008 this year?
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548. SLU
Quoting 518. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@EricBlake12 10h
If someone had showed me this SSTA map in the pre-season and told me no El Nino too, I would have been excited...



Note: that random negative anomaly southwest of Tampa is not actual data, the buoys near that location are malfunctioning.


I'd say an SST profile like this with no EL Nino could easily support a 16-8-5 kind of season like 2008.

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I think I'm gonna head out.

Though I do recall never posting the Bahama Mama recipe I found...

Bahama Mama recipe
1/4 oz coffee liqueur
1/2 oz dark rum
1/2 oz coconut liqueur
1/4 oz 151 proof rum
juice of 1/2 lemons
4 oz pineapple juice

Combine all ingredients and pour over cracked ice in a collins glass. Decorate with a strawberry or cherry and serve.

Read more: Bahama Mama drink recipes http://www.drinksmixer.com/cat/3219/#ixzz2fqw7RkQN

Do NOT let anybody tell you that cherry liquor should be in a Bahama Mama... if you MUST have a fruit liquor, get some pineapple rum, for goodness' sake....

And with that, have a pleasant buzz - I mean night, all...
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Quoting 512. Patrap:


ISS docking with the Soyuz launched at 3:58 CDT today on a Ballistic approach to the Station. NASA TV


Thanks for the link , very interesting to watch!
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Quoting 540. Patrap:
pssst,

The MDO is turned O-F-F.



Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)


The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is a mode of natural variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean and which has its principle expression in the sea surface temperature (SST) field. The AMO is identified as a coherent pattern of variability in basin-wide North Atlantic SSTs with a period of 60-80 years.


Pat, I'm pretty sure that "principle" should be "principal" in that quote, as in "chief, greatest".

Wonder u to talk to at Ucar...
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Quoting 529. CybrTeddy:


The problem lies within those insane-warm SST anomalies between Newfoundland and Europe. No focus of heat in the basin. If we head into 2014 with these same problems, with the same PDO phase, and the ENSO remaining the same, I'll guess around 4-5 named storms.


The tripole has to develop strongly to have better energy focused in MDR.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
Quoting 527. CybrTeddy:


The "it's only a category 1" mentality striked again so to speak for Sandy. I wish we'd come up with something more effective than the SSHS scale. Sandy's destructive potential was more on pair with some of the more powerful hurricanes.


That mentality did ultimately prevail, but I can tell you the local media here did their best to emphasize the "THIS IS MUCH MORE THAN A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE" factor. I think Sandy's rough satellite appearance probably played a role too honestly. People are very superficial. If only the NHC had upgraded Sandy to category 2 while off the Jersey Shore operationally and not after the fact. Trust me, people in Jersey are scared of category 2's. Category 1s? Pfft.
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pssst,

The MDO is turned O-F-F.



Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)


The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is a mode of natural variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean and which has its principle expression in the sea surface temperature (SST) field. The AMO is identified as a coherent pattern of variability in basin-wide North Atlantic SSTs with a period of 60-80 years.


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Dang is windy here



Loop

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Quoting 534. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm in the 'it's having an effect' bandwagon but not the 'it's completely shutting down the season' bandwagon. We've seen several hurricane seasons that ended up very active with a similar profile.

In fact....



There's a much bigger negative factor here.


Compare that to current:


SST anomalies are WAY higher in that area than they were in 2005. 2012 was also rather similar.
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The Soyuz crew of 3 are station-keeping with the ISS currently in the Fly around mode.

Docking in 17 minutes.

NASA TV

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Sometimes you feel like a nut...

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Quoting 522. ncstorm:


I agree with you on some on that..but even as recently during Sandy with all of the technology and social media, many people still choose to stay especially in Jersey. Gov Christie got on TV and warned them that no help would be coming for them but yet they stayed on barrier islands..its not so much with the "I didnt get any warnings" but most people dont want to leave their material possessions behind or dont have the financial means to evacuate to which some staying have cost them their lives..
Unfortunately, there are always a few who fit into Scott's descriptor handily... you wouldn't expect it in the Bahamas where we get hit somewhere almost every year, but it happens here too... people who get to the grocery store on a weeknight and can't figure out why there's lines like Christmas Eve...

Quoting 525. MrMixon:


Snow is always a good thing in my book (well, ask me again in late spring...)

Oh, and which Riverton?
Well, I love the way snow looks, and I have a great respect for those who are willing to put up with it for months at a time... lol...

I meant Riverton WY... Fremont County. I expect, looking at your map, that Lander and Dubois got some snow, but Riverton is far enough down in the valley to maybe have gotten passed over.
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Quoting 529. CybrTeddy:


The problem lies within those insane-warm SST anomalies between Newfoundland and Europe. No focus of heat in the basin. If we head into 2014 with these same problems, with the same PDO phase, and the ENSO remaining the same, I'll guess around 4-5 named storms.

I'm in the 'it's having an effect' bandwagon but not the 'it's completely shutting down the season' bandwagon. We've seen several hurricane seasons that ended up very active with a similar profile.

In fact....



There's a much bigger negative factor here. I just have no idea what it is lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting 493. BahaHurican:
Evening all...

So just after I posted this, we had some more lightning and the power went out.... which nixed the internet... so I played solitaire until the rain gave up, then went home.

Just turned on the blog because I was watching the last-ditch attempts to prevent Obamacare from coming onstream.

I still can't understand why there is so much opposition to such a common-sense solution for a country as wealthy as the US.
You must be kidding Obamacare is the worst thing this country has ever come up with. But we do have a bunch of nuts that voted for this FOOL!!!
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Good night all..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
Quoting 517. CybrTeddy:




We need a major hurricane to track on here within the next few weeks, because I don't think this blog can take this level of bickering and nonsensical logic (on both sides, mind you, the above is just an example of one) for the rest of the hurricane season.
At this point don't even have to be major... another 14 days of "nuttin" and we'll all be "nuts"...

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I would personally like to see something like this soon..I think some people take advantage of a argument to go ego tripping instead..
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Quoting 518. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@EricBlake12 10h
If someone had showed me this SSTA map in the pre-season and told me no El Nino too, I would have been excited...



Note: that random negative anomaly southwest of Tampa is not actual data, the buoys near that location are malfunctioning.


The problem lies within those insane-warm SST anomalies between Newfoundland and Europe. No focus of heat in the basin. If we head into 2014 with these same problems, with the same PDO phase, and the ENSO remaining the same, I'll guess around 4-5 named storms.
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Baha, you're not sure who I am referring to? LOL..okay..who else gets 20+ plusses and calls bloggers ignorant, stupid, dumb, and uses the analogy of a doctor telling a patient not to smoke, etc..

think good and hard..LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
Quoting 522. ncstorm:


I agree with you on some on that..but even as recently during Sandy with all of the technology and social media, many people still choose to stay especially in Jersey. Gov Christie got on TV and warned them that no help would be coming for them but yet they stayed on barrier islands..its not so much with the "I didnt get any warnings" but most people dont want to leave their material possessions behind or dont have the financial means to evacuate to which some staying have cost them their lives..


The "it's only a category 1" mentality striked again so to speak for Sandy. I wish we'd come up with something more effective than the SSHS scale. Sandy's destructive potential was more on pair with some of the more powerful hurricanes.
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RealClimate
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Quoting 514. BahaHurican:
LOL... so is that a good thing or a bad thing????

;o)

Edit: Wonder if they got any in Riverton...


Snow is always a good thing in my book (well, ask me again in late spring...)

Oh, and which Riverton?
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For some this blog has turned into a platform to bash scientists, environmentalists, and NOAA.

Where does everyone think a lot of our weather data comes from? How about the satellite images? The internet websites and databases?

How about our (relatively) clean air? Water? Who fought for that?

Every day we all turn on the lights, open the fridge, take medicine, get in a car, turn on a computer/TV/radio/cell phone, and access the internet. ALL of it brought to you by scientists.

Scientists are not perfect, but it's an honorable profession. I would never want to return to a world that existed pre-science. And yet, it's become somewhat popular to disparage them.

Many bloggers on here are scientists; some work in the environmental field, some work in private industry, some are likely in academia, and some work for the government in some form.

I have a lot of respect for most of the bloggers on here. What I can't respect is the childish behavior by some, or the unwarranted accusations against entire groups of people.

On that note, I'm signing off the blog for the evening. I certainly hope the dialogue improves upon my return...but unfortunately it's likely a false hope.

Good night, all.

Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
523. Skyepony (Mod)
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, No. 16 (28 August 2013) 4361-4366; doi: 10.1002/grl.50775.
Increasing amount of Arctic Ocean deep waters in the Greenland Sea

R. Somavilla, U. Schauer and G. Budéus

Abstract

In the last three decades, deep convection has come to a halt in the Greenland Sea. Hydrographic data reveal that during this period, temperature and salinity in the deep Greenland Sea have increased at mean rates without precedent in the last 100 years, and these trends are among the highest in the global deep ocean. The origin of these changes is identified as the advection of Arctic Ocean deep waters and the necessary transports to explain them are calculated (0.44 ± 0.09 Sv). Despite the fact that the deep Greenland Sea hardly covers 0.05% of the global surface, the resulting trends constitute 0.3% of the World Ocean heat content increase per unit area of earth's surface and 0.1% of the global sea level rise. These results suggest that changes of the deep Arctic Mediterranean and their contribution to the global budgets need to be addressed.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50775/abs tract;jsessionid=9F7D5062A1B88E7508F283F8A24BDE00. d03t04
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Quoting 473. ScottLincoln:

The whole southeast coast will be evacuating and one person will look up and realize all his neighbors are gone. Then we'll get "I didn't have any warning!" (I hear this far too much in my line of work)


I agree with you on some on that..but even as recently during Sandy with all of the technology and social media, many people still choose to stay especially in Jersey. Gov Christie got on TV and warned them that no help would be coming for them but yet they stayed on barrier islands..its not so much with the "I didnt get any warnings" but most people dont want to leave their material possessions behind or dont have the financial means to evacuate to which some staying have cost them their lives..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
I kinda figured Mr. Cruz would be sleeping instead of blogging here.

So............
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Quoting 506. ncstorm:


Baha..I had this same conversation with a well known poster yesterday that most idolize on this blog..funny, I dont see many posting this same conversation to him..
nc, I was generalizing from a specific post. However, that doesn't mean I think pejoratives work well for anybody. And since I missed the conversation, I'm not sure who you r referring to, but I keep thinking by having rancorous arguments that are not actually getting people to think about the issues is wasting time that we genuinely may not have.

It's the same data vs. personality split that sometimes takes away from our wx discussions here.
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Quoting 498. BahaHurican:
This is the sort of crap that makes talking about the topic so difficult. This person is just out to jeer and mock. There no real information or respect for the other person if not the other person's position. As a result, even IF he or she ever said something I agreed with, instinctively, [emotionally] I would be repelled by his thinking. Calling me stupid and making dumb jokes about me is not the way to get me to agree with you.

But then that's not what it's about, is it? Really all this person wants is to destroy the conversation, so that nothing worthwhile is ever achieved. People with genuine dissenting views that should be discussed in order to improve our understanding are drowned out by this noise, and people holding the "majority" position become complacent because it seems the only opposition is not credible or serious.

And these guys are running amok on the internet. Sad.

Not to mention that we have reached peak oil. We are now using unconventional sources that are more problematic to produce like fracking and tar sands. So the original statement of the offending post is just wrong to begin with. And that is before the poster goes off with insults.
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@EricBlake12 10h
If someone had showed me this SSTA map in the pre-season and told me no El Nino too, I would have been excited...



Note: that random negative anomaly southwest of Tampa is not actual data, the buoys near that location are malfunctioning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting 511. Pallis:
The current bought and paid for majority in senate still supports NOAA and yet they still refuse to acknowledge the combining of many alphabet soups has only more tightly controlled political science into a tool for well moneyed corporations.The rising rate of population due to open borders with no laws being enforced combined with a central bank lending money to bad investments equals the devaluation of our monetary standard, but still tied to the everyday spending dollar for the average American means that 115$ Billion is just average, and has nothing to do with the weather, but instead is a blown up figure of rich people having houses in places that never should have been built on in the first place... America no longer fishes it's own waters, Thanks environmentalists for helping other countries rape our waters and sell it back to us. NOAA cares for itself and itself only.




We need a major hurricane to track on here within the next few weeks, because I don't think this blog can take this level of bickering and nonsensical logic (on both sides, mind you, the above is just an example of one) for the rest of the hurricane season.
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Quoting 515. Pallis:
Heh Heh. I can't wait to hear your response when they call you a crazy racist, or a mainlander.


Then wait no more. My response would be thus:

"Huh? What?"
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Quoting 504. MrMixon:


Well, if you want to get technical...

Cambridge University historian and philosopher of science William Whewell coined the term "scientist" in 1834 (source). Since "the concept of a spherical Earth dates back to ancient Greek philosophy from around the 6th century BC," (source), I'm thinking the scientific establishment in 1834 was quite in agreement about the roundness of the earth.

So, since the spherical earth theory predates the very creation of the word "scientist," the statement "at one time the majority of scientist [sic] thought the earth was flat" is, I'm afraid, incorrect.
Heh Heh. I can't wait to hear your response when they call you a crazy racist, or a mainlander.
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Quoting 499. MrMixon:
Look - snow!

LOL... so is that a good thing or a bad thing????

;o)

Edit: Wonder if they got any in Riverton...
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Quoting 488. JRRP:
It's really pitiful when I can type with a straight face that this is best looking anything I've seen approaching the Antilles in weeks... [sigh]....

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Quoting 451. Patrap:
Climate




Americans%u2019 health, security, and economic well-being are tied to climate and weather. In the last 2 years, the United States experienced 25 climate- and weather-related disasters exceeding $1 billion ($115 billion total) in damages and claiming 1,019 lives. The public, businesses, resource managers, and policy leaders are increasingly asking for information to help them understand how and why climate conditions are changing and how they can prepare.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is a primary provider of climate science, data, tools, and information used by stakeholders and citizens in decision-making contexts. These resources are supported by our strong foundation in science %u2014 including global climate observation and monitoring networks; world-renowned scientists; and state-of-the-art climate models.

NOAA is working with partners and the public to build a climate-smart nation that is resilient to climate and weather extremes, and long-term changes. Drawing upon NOAA%u2019s foundation in science, our objectives are to:

reduce vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events;
prepare for drought and long-term water resource challenges;
protect and preserve coasts and coastal infrastructure;
identify and manage risks to marine ecosystems and the services they provide; and
mitigate and adapt to climate impacts.
The current bought and paid for majority in senate still supports NOAA and yet they still refuse to acknowledge the combining of many alphabet soups has only more tightly controlled political science into a tool for well moneyed corporations.The rising rate of population due to open borders with no laws being enforced combined with a central bank lending money to bad investments equals the extreme devaluation of our monetary standard, but still tied to the everyday spending dollar for the average American means that 115$ Billion is just average, and has nothing to do with the weather, but instead is a blown up figure of rich people having houses in places that never should have been built on in the first place... America no longer fishes it's own waters, Thanks environmentalists for helping other countries rape our waters and sell it back to us. NOAA cares for itself and itself only.
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Quoting 508. MrMixon:
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook



Nice and warm in Virginia. Perfect golfing weather.
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Quoting 471. opal92nwf:
people have not looked at Atlantic hurricanes the same way ever since the 2004-2005 seasons (and mainly cause of Katrina)

I read accounts of people on a Hurricane Andrew fb page of what they were doing the day before. Some of them didn't even know there was a storm coming! (and at that point it was a major!!) I thought to myself that there is almost no way that will happen in this day and age because of the level of alarmism and vulturing the media now does (mainly TWC) when there is any wisp of cloud in the Atlantic that could become a trop cyclone. And again, this is all because of 2004-2005, the seasons that caught everyone in the nation's attention.

I would love to hear your thoughts on this
I know back in the 80s when I was going to school in NC it was almost impossible to find out what was happening storm-wise in the MDR... even the Wx Channel would say something like... "yeah there's a hurricane somewhere out in the ATL, but it's not threatening the US, so no worries..." About drove me crazy.

I am kinda glad people are more aware today.
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8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

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I think what we just saw can all be related back to my picture on post 264.
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Quoting 498. BahaHurican:
This is the sort of crap that makes talking about the topic so difficult. This person is just out to jeer and mock. There no real information or respect for the other person if not the other person's position. As a result, even IF he or she ever said something I agreed with, instinctively, [emotionally] I would be repelled by his thinking. Calling me stupid and making dumb jokes about me is not the way to get me to agree with you.

But then that's not what it's about, is it? Really all this person wants is to destroy the conversation, so that nothing worthwhile is ever achieved. People with genuine dissenting views that should be discussed in order to improve our understanding are drowned out by this noise, and people holding the "majority" position become complacent because it seems the only opposition is not credible or serious.

And these guys are running amok on the internet. Sad.


Baha..I had this same conversation with a well known poster yesterday that most idolize on this blog..funny, I dont see many posting this same conversation to him..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
505. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Look - snow!




yup, snow forecast for Wyoming and the Dakotas
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Quoting 413. yoboi:


And at one time the majority of scientist thought the earth was flat.........


Well, if you want to get technical...

Cambridge University historian and philosopher of science William Whewell coined the term "scientist" in 1834 (source). Since "the concept of a spherical Earth dates back to ancient Greek philosophy from around the 6th century BC," (source), I'm thinking the scientific establishment in 1834 was quite in agreement about the roundness of the earth.

So, since the spherical earth theory predates the very creation of the word "scientist," the statement "at one time the majority of scientist [sic] thought the earth was flat" is, I'm afraid, incorrect.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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