Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:15 PM GMT on September 25, 2013

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In the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico, a stalled stationary front is bringing heavy thunderstorms to west-central Florida, where heavy rains of up to six inches have caused flooding problems. A weak area of low pressure along this front will move over the coastal waters several hundred miles offshore of North Carolina by Friday, when an extratropical storm is expected to develop. Ocean temperatures off the North Carolina coast are 26 - 27°C, which is warm enough to help give the storm some extra energy and moisture. However, wind shear will be high, and this storm is expected to stay non-tropical as it heads north-northeast, potentially bringing rainy weather to New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Sunday and Monday. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave no odds that anything tropical would spin up in the next five days. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis predicts development over the next five days, and the Atlantic is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. The next area to watch for development might be the Western Caribbean or the area between the Bahamas and Bermuda next week. However, chances of development will be below average for this time of year, due the fact we are in the suppressed phase of the MJO. This suppressed phase may end by mid-October, increasing the odds of development in about two weeks' time.


Figure 1. All quiet in the Atlantic: The Atlantic remains welcomely quiet at 8:15 am EDT on September 25, 2013, with an unusual lack of heavy thunderstorm activity for this time of year. Image credit: NOAA.

Join me in New York City on Thursday for Climate Week
I write a lot about billion-dollar weather disasters like Hurricane Sandy, the coming great climate disruption, and other "doom-and-gloom" topics. These are important to discuss, but too much talk of disaster can turn people off and make them feel hopeless. Social science research shows that including a positive message along with your science will make people more inclined to believe your science, and it is important to emphasize some of the remarkable solutions on how we can lessen and adapt to climate change that technology and entrepreneurship are coming up with. This Thursday afternoon, I am moderating a panel discussion in New York City on some innovative ways to combat climate change. It's part of Climate Week, which culminates Friday with the release of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which is released only once every six years. You can register to attend Thursday's free event here. The session begins at 2 pm with remarks by David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Company, followed by guest speaker Mayor Bloomberg. My "New Frontiers" panel is at 5:40 pm.



Jeff Masters

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Quoting HuracandelCaribe:


The GFS has been very consistent of developing TS activity after the 200hr mark near our area PR for the last couple of days.
That's early October, we had a big tragedy(Mameeyes) in a month of October 28 years ago, from the weak TS Isabel,Oct.7,1985, coming from the South.....
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Quoting 652. Neapolitan:
An "attack"? Seriously? I merely stated a few well-known facts. One would have to be very thin-skinned--and of suspiciously insecure faith--to misconstrue anything I wrote as "an attack".

"Attacking" religion or the religious wasn't my goal; I was only explaining, as many others have before me, that science relies on evidence, and religion doesn't, so they operate in two entirely different frameworks...



religion relies on faith, but faith doesnt rely on religion
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Quoting 637. VR46L:


Huh Banging the atheist drum again . Oh well ! Each to their own ... but I think there is alot of people of some kind of faith reading your attack ,and may not be happy with it ... I think you would have a more successful approach if you had sugar rather than vinegar in your wording Jusr sayin.....
An "attack"? Seriously? I merely stated a few well-known facts. One would have to be very thin-skinned--and of suspiciously insecure faith--to misconstrue anything I wrote as "an attack".

At any rate, "attacking" religion or the religious wasn't my goal; I was only explaining, as many others have before me, that science relies on evidence, and religion doesn't, so they operate in two entirely different frameworks...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
On a different note, what do you guys think of the convection burst in the southern Caribbean and the large cloud cluster east of the Antilles?
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650. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Interesting pattern shaping up that may be a precursor of development in Caribbean. It will be something to watch.
I wonder if the wave at 40w, 10N, would gain some respect from NHC to at least be mention, since it is looking kind of interesting....
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648. beell
Quoting 643. Tropicsweatherpr:


Interesting pattern shaping up that may be a precursor of development in Caribbean. It will be something to watch.


At least some rain for the Greater Antilles.
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Quoting 644. beell:


Science, being a man made construct, will never find any existence of God. Some folks are okay with that.

I normally don't comment on these matters because it can be contentious, but Acts 1:20 clearly addresses both of these comments. When things are proved, than faith is not required and God "in accordance with the Bible" desires that men walk by faith not by sight.
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646. beell
Quoting 645. VR46L:


Even Quite a few scientists are ...


Of course, some will say belief in God is man-made as well.

:)
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645. VR46L
Quoting 644. beell:


Science, being a man made construct, will never find any existence of God. Some folks are okay with that.


Even Quite a few scientists are ...
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644. beell
Quoting 635. Neapolitan:
Science isn't anti-God any more than it's anti-leprechaun or anti-dragon or anti-mermaid. Religion asks people to accept things on faith--the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen--and that's fine. But science demands a substantially higher standard for support. Science didn't set out to "kill" God; rather, science has merely sought to find the reason things in the physical realm are as they are, and has--so far at least--failed to find a single verifiable shred of evidence of His existence. It may do that someday, but it hasn't happened yet.


Science, being a man made construct, will never find any existence of God. Some folks are okay with that.
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Quoting 636. beell:
A snippet from the Caribbean Forecast Desk describing general synoptics over the Caribbean this weekend. The discussion is from yesterday but still valid per the 06Z GFS. At the very least, increasing moisture and lowered pressures over a broad area of the Caribbean.

An impending blob watch.


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013


...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATTERN IS GRADUALLY CHANGING FROM A
CURRENTLY DRY ONE INTO A WETTER ONE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE USA
INTO THE BAHAMAS.
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ERODE CURRENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. AS TROUGH
DEEPENS...IT WILL ENTER IN PHASE AND INTERACT WITH TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE
. THE SURGE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO
THE ABC/GUAJIRA PENINSULA AND THEN JAMAICA/HAITI/EASTERN CUBA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...



09/26 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, RH. Valid Sunday, 15Z
A bit of a look at the phasing of the inverted trough over the Caribbean and the mid latitude trough off the US east coast


09/26 06Z TAFB 72 hr Surface Forecast. Valid 00Z 09/29

And let's throw in a tropical wave forecast to be along 80W in approximately 72 hrs.


Interesting pattern shaping up that may be a precursor of development in Caribbean. It will be something to watch.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14218
348 hours out "fantasy land"

Tropical storm in the ATL.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
GFS now shows a weaker nor'easter than before, at 117 hours.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 625. LargoFl:





FINALLY drying out!!!
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Pubak is a RARE example of a tropical storm with an eye:

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 634. JRRP:


The GFS has been very consistent of developing TS activity after the 200hr mark near our area PR for the last couple of days.
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637. VR46L
Quoting 635. Neapolitan:
Science isn't anti-God any more than it's anti-leprechaun or anti-dragon or anti-mermaid. Religion asks people to accept things on faith--the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen--and that's fine. But science demands a substantially higher standard for support. Science didn't set out to "kill" God; rather, science has merely sought to find the reason things in the physical realm are as they are, and has--so far at least--failed to find a single verifiable shred of evidence of His existence. It may do that someday, but it hasn't happened yet.


Huh Banging the atheist drum again . Oh well ! Each to their own ... but I think there is alot of people of some kind of faith reading your attack ,and may not be happy with it ... I think you would have a more successful approach if you had sugar rather than vinegar in your wording Jusr sayin.....
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636. beell
A snippet from the Caribbean Forecast Desk describing general synoptics over the Caribbean this weekend. The discussion is from yesterday but still valid per the 06Z GFS. At the very least, increasing moisture and lowered pressures over a broad area of the Caribbean.

An impending blob watch.


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013


...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATTERN IS GRADUALLY CHANGING FROM A
CURRENTLY DRY ONE INTO A WETTER ONE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE USA
INTO THE BAHAMAS.
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ERODE CURRENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. AS TROUGH
DEEPENS...IT WILL ENTER IN PHASE AND INTERACT WITH TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE
. THE SURGE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO
THE ABC/GUAJIRA PENINSULA AND THEN JAMAICA/HAITI/EASTERN CUBA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...



09/26 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, RH. Valid Sunday, 15Z
A bit of a look at the phasing of the inverted trough over the Caribbean and the mid latitude trough off the US east coast


09/26 06Z TAFB 72 hr Surface Forecast. Valid 00Z 09/29

And let's throw in a tropical wave forecast to be along 80W in approximately 72 hrs.
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Quoting 627. BahaHurican:
The interesting thing is that even 50 years ago the position of church vs science was not in any way mainstream. It's interesting to read kid's adventure literature from about 1960 where science is clearly presented as man's way of discovering and understanding the greatness of God's creation. In this view science is a tool, not a quasi-religious belief. As a result the writers were able to embrace each fully in its appropriate context. This was very much an accepted way of thinking in educated circles during the much of the 1800s and early 1900s.

I think the problem comes when people try to use science to prove or disprove God. Some people look at scientific findings and can't reconcile those findings [i.e. that way of interpreting the world] with what is found in the Bible. As a result, they conclude either that a) God doesn't exist or b) science is anti-God.

However, I've never been able to understand why people assume that God is limited to their own understanding. There's a reason why the Judeo-Christian name of God is simply "I AM". I say, start by recognising that science cannot contain or explain God. Then you can enjoy your understanding of the physical processes of the world.
Science isn't anti-God any more than it's anti-leprechaun or anti-dragon or anti-mermaid. Religion asks people to accept things on faith--the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen--and that's fine. But science demands a substantially higher standard for support. Science didn't set out to "kill" God; rather, science has merely sought to find the reason things in the physical realm are as they are, and has--so far at least--failed to find a single verifiable shred of evidence of His existence. It may do that someday, but it hasn't happened yet.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
634. JRRP
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Quoting 632. islander101010:
does not look suppressed this morning cmc was sniffing something in the sw carib a few days ago. here comes the convection
We live in hopes... unfortunately it looks like the convection won't be widespread enough to impact the Leewards in any serious way...

I'm out for the morning. Ya'll have a good day!
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does not look suppressed this morning cmc was sniffing something in the sw carib a few days ago. here comes the convection
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631. JRRP
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That area of thunderstorms (tw?) approaching the lesser Antilles is looking better this morning. Also note the blow up of convection of the south american coast.
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629. JRRP



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Quoting 622. HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
15:00 PM JST September 26 2013
======================================

24 HRS: 15.1N 116.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PABUK (T1320)
15:00 PM JST September 26 2013
======================================
You know, the way the WPac has been churning them out lately, I'm starting to think we may end up with a bit more activity in October than we are expecting...
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Quoting 616. KoritheMan:
Isn't this pretty much true if you possess a Christian viewpoint? The going theory that comes a corollary of those beliefs is that God is the arbiter of creation, and this includes science. At the very least, he ordained us to have that knowledge.

Contrary to what some Christians think (though thankfully that number appears to be decreasing), science is not the antithesis of Christianity and everything Jesus Christ stood for. I no longer believe in any deities, but back when I did believe in that particular god, I held the view I postulated above; that for all intents and purposes, god is higher than science, but he allowed us to develop and cultivate the knowledge we have.

In short, if your axioms are formulated from a Christian worldview, god is higher than science.

Sorry for the off-topic post, mods.

Oh, and good night there, Nathan.
The interesting thing is that even 50 years ago the position of church vs science was not in any way mainstream. It's interesting to read kid's adventure literature from about 1960 where science is clearly presented as man's way of discovering and understanding the greatness of God's creation. In this view science is a tool, not a quasi-religious belief. As a result the writers were able to embrace each fully in its appropriate context. This was very much an accepted way of thinking in educated circles during the much of the 1800s and early 1900s.

I think the problem comes when people try to use science to prove or disprove God. Some people look at scientific findings and can't reconcile those findings [i.e. that way of interpreting the world] with what is found in the Bible. As a result, they conclude either that a) God doesn't exist or b) science is anti-God.

However, I've never been able to understand why people assume that God is limited to their own understanding. There's a reason why the Judeo-Christian name of God is simply "I AM". I say, start by recognising that science cannot contain or explain God. Then you can enjoy your understanding of the physical processes of the world.
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I just perused the posts from last evening. A mish-mosh of religion vs science with AGW, politics and Obamacare thrown in. Now I've got a headache.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38110
Unless my memory fails me, this looks like the greatest concentration of moisture that we've seen in the Central Atlantic this entire season. It's protecting what is at its center too, at least for now.



I would not discount the possibility that Ma Nature is planning a 21 gun salute for sun grazing comet ISON, which is coming in from a rare point of origin.

After all, this comet was discovered on the anniversary of Hurricane Hugo.

All hail, comet ISON:

The Mars flyby comes at a key time in Comet ISONs journey. It will have just crossed the "frost line," a place just outside the orbit of Mars where solar heating is enough to start vaporizing frozen water.







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623. MPI88
Quoting 619. chimera245:
Question for the wise.

Does "unspent" thermal energy stored in the Atlantic Basin remain broadly there for the next year, or does is it transported away, either through the atmosphere or via oceanic circulation?



Although there appears to be; there is no such thing as "unspent energy".

It's an energy balance with a time dependent tipping point. Compare it to a large pool that varies in size by the seasons (or weeks, or days). Water evaporates by time (transport). However, if there is way too much water (energy) the pool overflows (storm).

Back to the original question; does it stay? Well, a bit might stay, depending on the winter season.
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622. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
15:00 PM JST September 26 2013
======================================

South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.0N 118.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.1N 116.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PABUK (T1320)
15:00 PM JST September 26 2013
======================================

Sea East Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Pabuk (970 hPa) located at 33.8N 145.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 21 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in east quadrant
60 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
210 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 42.2N 154.8E - Extratropical Low Sea Far East Of Japan
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Quoting 619. chimera245:
Question for the wise.

Does "unspent" thermal energy stored in the Atlantic Basin remain broadly there for the next year, or does is it transported away, either through the atmosphere or via oceanic circulation?

I haven't studied it extensively, but I've always assumed it was a combination of both atmospheric and oceanic circulation processes. In this case, the atmospheric trigger would probably be winter storms.
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Quoting 618. sar2401:
\
Of course God is higher that science - He created science. That has nothing to do with endowing men with the brainpower and free will to attempt to discover scientific truth. We have been doing it since the first man picked up a part of tree that had been struck by lightning and said "Hey, what's this hot stuff". Man has had the ability to discover what he believed to be true ("Miasma causes malaria") to what man now knows to be true ("The plasmodium of the Anopheles mosquito causes malaria"). God gives us no special powers to make discoveries in science but also puts no obstacles in our path. The parts of science that turn out to be true were always known to God - it's just up to us, using our God-given brain power and curiosity, to figure out. One is certainly free to believe that God will take care of everything so science is irrelevant, but I can find nothing in the Word of God that says that is the way all believers should act.
Maybe I misspoke. I didn't mean that god gave us "special powers", but just by nature of being creatures capable of logical and abstract thought, he had a direct in hand in our ability to gain knowledge. He created us with the ability to furnish critical thinking, so in a sense, he is responsible. Not so much that he instilled us with special powers, so much that our very nature to reason and be objective is kind of a corollary response.

I hope that made a little more sense...
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Question for the wise.

Does "unspent" thermal energy stored in the Atlantic Basin remain broadly there for the next year, or does is it transported away, either through the atmosphere or via oceanic circulation?

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Quoting KoritheMan:
Isn't this pretty much true if you possess a Christian viewpoint? The going theory that comes a corollary of those beliefs is that God is the arbiter of creation, and this includes science. At the very least, he ordained us to have that knowledge.

Contrary to what some Christians think (though thankfully that number appears to be decreasing), science is not the antithesis of Christianity and everything Jesus Christ stood for. I no longer believe in any deities, but back when I did believe in that particular god, I held the view I postulated above; that for all intents and purposes, god is higher than science, but he allowed us to develop and cultivate the knowledge we have.

In short, if your axioms are formulated from a Christian worldview, god is higher than science.

Sorry for the off-topic post, mods.

Oh, and good night there, Nathan.
\
Of course God is higher that science - He created science. That has nothing to do with endowing men with the brainpower and free will to attempt to discover scientific truth. We have been doing it since the first man picked up a part of tree that had been struck by lightning and said "Hey, what's this hot stuff". Man has had the ability to discover what he believed to be true ("Miasma causes malaria") to what man now knows to be true ("The plasmodium of the Anopheles mosquito causes malaria"). God gives us no special powers to make discoveries in science but also puts no obstacles in our path. The parts of science that turn out to be true were always known to God - it's just up to us, using our God-given brain power and curiosity, to figure out. One is certainly free to believe that God will take care of everything so science is irrelevant, but I can find nothing in the Word of God that says that is the way all believers should act.
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Quoting swflurker:
I have been tracking the ULL'S. Been a great season. LOL

Yes, if you like tracking ULL's, ghost storms, busted models, terrible path and intensity predictions, and storms so weak that many of them lasted less than a day, this has been a great season. :-)
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Quoting 601. Astrometeor:



 but they will state that God is higher than science,
Isn't this pretty much true if you possess a Christian viewpoint? The going theory that comes a corollary of those beliefs is that God is the arbiter of creation, and this includes science. At the very least, he ordained us to have that knowledge.

Contrary to what some Christians think (though thankfully that number appears to be decreasing), science is not the antithesis of Christianity and everything Jesus Christ stood for. I no longer believe in any deities, but back when I did believe in that particular god, I held the view I postulated above; that for all intents and purposes, god is higher than science, but he allowed us to develop and cultivate the knowledge we have.

In short, if your axioms are formulated from a Christian worldview, god is higher than science.

Sorry for the off-topic post, mods.

Oh, and good night there, Nathan.
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Quoting Astrometeor:
Since I'm going to bed in 5 minutes and am currently half-asleep, the 5 or 6 articles that I skimmed have all stated either The Church itself, or The Church through the Spanish Inquisition. Urban VIII was a friend at one point, then Galileo alienated him, and Galileo was convicted of heresy. One mentions that his writing called Dialogue was banned, but he was allowed to keep writing while under house arrest.

I've always been told that it was the Roman Church who gave Galileo the punishments, through all my history courses, and whatever else I stumbled upon.

Good night.



To stay on a weather topic^.

Good Night, Astro, I'm about head off myself, since this is about the slowest September 26 we'll eve see. The whole story of the Inquisition is on of intrigue, politics, power, and the search for truth. Very few schools ever have much time to teach about the complexities of the Dark Ages and how we emerged into the most enlightened time in the Western World. The easiest thing to teach is the Chruch was the only institution with absolute political power, and they did some evil things, hence the entire "Church was evil". If you live as long as I have, you may have time to do some more in-depth reading and find out it was more complicated than what appeared on the surface. You also have to remember this was directly after the Crusades, and the Church felt a special obligation to suppress what it viewed as heresy. Right or wrong, without the Church, a lot more of us today would be speaking Arabic than is the case.
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I have been tracking the ULL'S. Been a great season. LOL
Quoting sar2401:

I have never seen a time in late September where the Gulf and the entire Caribbean have been so full of dry air and a complete lack of convection. We are entering an almost unprecedented round of continuing troughs coming down from the north, bringing more fool, stable air. It looks like, except for very slight chance for a few thunderstorms next Friday, that SE Alabama will have very cool and dry air in place until at least October 5, and possibly October 10 if the next ridge holds and washes out and fronts. The supposed low for this weekend off the East Coast, if it occurs, will be baroclinic and so fart off the coast it will affect no one except some surfers. Unless something unexpected happens soon, it looks like the chances of a hurricane are approaching zero. A Gulf or SW Caribbean TC may still have a chance to from, but the high pressures, strong trades, and strong shear will keep any such storm weak and confined to the basin, away from land.

In 50 years of watching tropical storms, I've never seen a setup so clear that I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this season is a complete bust, I'm usually very conservative about things like this, but I am totally amazed with this year.
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Since I'm going to bed in 5 minutes and am currently half-asleep, the 5 or 6 articles that I skimmed have all stated either The Church itself, or The Church through the Spanish Inquisition. Urban VIII was a friend at one point, then Galileo alienated him, and Galileo was convicted of heresy. One mentions that his writing called Dialogue was banned, but he was allowed to keep writing while under house arrest.

I've always been told that it was the Roman Church who gave Galileo the punishments, through all my history courses, and whatever else I stumbled upon.

Good night.



To stay on a weather topic^.
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Quoting redwagon:






Hm. Looks like something would like to clock in in the BOC except this High over TX, again. But no dice:


I have never seen a time in late September where the Gulf and the entire Caribbean have been so full of dry air and a complete lack of convection. We are entering an almost unprecedented round of continuing troughs coming down from the north, bringing more fool, stable air. It looks like, except for very slight chance for a few thunderstorms next Friday, that SE Alabama will have very cool and dry air in place until at least October 5, and possibly October 10 if the next ridge holds and washes out and fronts. The supposed low for this weekend off the East Coast, if it occurs, will be baroclinic and so fart off the coast it will affect no one except some surfers. Unless something unexpected happens soon, it looks like the chances of a hurricane are approaching zero. A Gulf or SW Caribbean TC may still have a chance to from, but the high pressures, strong trades, and strong shear will keep any such storm weak and confined to the basin, away from land.

In 50 years of watching tropical storms, I've never seen a setup so clear that I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this season is a complete bust, I'm usually very conservative about things like this, but I am totally amazed with this year.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Start Here

The Catholic Church I believe today has a half-view on science. They won't shun you for it, but they will state that God is higher than science, and that in reality science is a product/effect of God. Or something like that, haven't read about it in a while.

No, you are are quite wrong, Astro. Read the story of Galileo and his battles with the Spanish Inquisition. At least three of the popes who lived during Galileo's time and a number of prominent cardinals, natural philosophers themselves, were supporters of Galileo's theories. Much like the AGW battle raging today, there are two camps - one that believes that AGW is hypothetically true and another that believes that AGW is an unquestionably physical phenomenon not open to question. Galileo, known as a impulsive, threw in his lot with the second camp, and that was a direct challenge to the non-heliocentric views of the Church. This is what got him into trouble, although even his troubles were relatively minor for the times, since he was allowed to continue to do research and his writings were never banned.

One has to remember that the Church was everything in the 16th century, including the arbiter of science. Imagine that today, the IPPC, with Al Gore as the chief executive, was the sole arbiter on the question of AGW as absolute phenomenal truth. Do you think we might have a modern day version of the Inquisition for those who did not go along with the IPPC's view of AGW? It's absolutely vital we put things that happened 500 years ago in context rather than holding a body from that era to the standards of science we have today.
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NSW Incident Alerts - Weather
Another image of the Taree Fire from the Taree Service Centre before being evacuated.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Rates are about the same for store bought insurance.
Quoting Birthmark:

Yeah, the right-wing Heritage Foundation should never have dreamed up the scheme in the first place. ;)
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Quoting 533. gulfbreeze:
You must be kidding Obamacare is the worst thing this country has ever come up with. But we do have a bunch of nuts that voted for this FOOL!!!

Yeah, the right-wing Heritage Foundation should never have dreamed up the scheme in the first place. ;)
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Quoting 564. StormTrackerScott:


& Patrap shouldn't post that most if not all on here don't have the attention span to read thru all of that.


Read through what???
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Quoting 601. Astrometeor:


Start Here

The Catholic Church I believe today has a half-view on science. They won't shun you for it, but they will state that God is higher than science, and that in reality science is a product/effect of God. Or something like that, haven't read about it in a while.

As both a fledgling scientist and a Roman Catholic, I can say that nowadays, the Church is very accepting of science and even has put in resources for scientific study and how it relates to religion. A Catholic priest was actually the first person to propose the idea of the Big Bang.

In the past, there is no denying that the Church has had conflicts with science, but just like any other organization, the Church is led by people who are imperfect and make mistakes. Like I said, the Church is quite a bit more favorable towards science to say the least.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 25 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&
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NSWIA Weather ‏@nswia_weather 2m
There are currently more than 50 bush and grass fires across New South Wales, 23 remain uncontained. Three emergency warnings are in place.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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