95L Remains Unorganized in the Gulf of Mexico

By: shauntanner , 6:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2013

Share this Blog
50
+

Invest 95L, located in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, is around 100 miles east of Tampico, Mexico Friday morning and is struggling to organize based on satellite imagery. Visible satellite shows the strongest thunderstorm activity has been displaced to the south of what would be the center of circulation. Only a few thunderstorms are associated with this disturbance currently, with the strongest of these on the southern and eastern edges.


Satellite image showing Invest 95L and a lack of thunderstorm development

The National Hurricane Center has decreased the likelihood of 95L developing over the next two days from 70% on Thursday to 30% heading into the weekend.  Some models suggest this disturbance could track north toward the Texas coast, where it could strengthen. This northward jog would be guided by a cold front that is forecast to track across the U.S over the weekend.  Regardless whether this disturbance develops, significant rain is expected from southern Texas through much of the Southeast as it will couple with the aforementioned cold front to draw considerable moisture northward. Upwards of 5 inches of rain (see image below) could fall along coastal areas from Texas through Mississippi even if the disturbance does not develop.


WPC forecast showing the QPF forecast for Friday through Monday.  Note the significant rain expected through the Southeast due to the combination of the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and a cold front moving through the eastern U.S.


Model tracks showing some possible paths of Invest 95L

Super Typhoon Usagi

Usagi maintained Super Typhoon strength on its path just south Taiwan and north of Philippines.  With a wind strength of 150 mph, Usagi is taking a reasonably good path as the official forecast takes the typhoon into the South China Sea and weakens it into a Category 2 storm before eventual landfall near Shenzen on Sunday.  This will still be a strong storm with the capability of doing considerable damage and significant flooding.


Tracking map of Super Typhoon Usagi.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 398 - 348

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Quoting 390. txjac:
Up to 3.94"! And still coming!


I'll say; it was time!!! those rain dances are finally paying off! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Hey Aussie what's up funny thing you mentioned that just a while ago I just finished stuffing down my gob with a roo steak

was it cooked right. Can't over-cook roo steak or it becomes like rubber.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
So can someone here explain exactly what's been going on with Usagi today? I've rarely seen a storm weaken so considerably while maintaining such perfect structure—symmetry, outflow, fairly distinct eye, no signs of shear or dry air intrusion. Its convection has just gradually declined hour by hour. Is it going over coolish water? Hard to imagine in that part of the world.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 392. AussieStorm:


I am in Sydney. we have specialist butchers here that have all those steaks. We can buy roo steaks and snags in the local supermarket.

Btw, which wouldn't you try?

Hey Aussie what's up funny thing you mentioned that just a while ago I just finished stuffing down my gob with a roo steak
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
393. SLU
Remember these are 10-minute average winds. The 112mph wind speed under the one minute average would be around 124mph along with 923mb pressure.

Incredible that the station was still reporting through that kind of weather.

12:00 AM 78 F 77 F 96% 28.63 in 3 mi NNW 33.6 mph - - Rain Light Rain
1:00 AM 78 F 77 F 94% 28.42 in 3 mi NW 55.9 mph - - Rain Light Rain
5:00 AM 77 F 76 F 96% 27.79 in 0 mi North 85.0 mph - - Rain Light Rain
6:00 AM 77 F 76 F 97% 27.45 in 0 mi NNW 111.9 mph - - Rain Rain
7:00 AM 77 F 76 F 97% 27.25 in 0 mi NW 15.7 mph - - Rain Rain
8:00 AM 77 F 76 F 98% 27.75 in 0 mi South 67.1 mph - - Rain Rain
9:00 AM 77 F 76 F 95% 28.09 in 1 mi South 44.7 mph - - Rain Light Rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FWBRuss:


Aye mate, I live in Florida and have a cajun wife, I have eaten everything yoboi has to offer, but 90% of what you ofer, I would love to try!

Maybe, one day I can get a vacation in your direction. What part of that great continent do you live on? With roos, and crocs....you must be a distance from Sydney?


I am in Sydney. we have specialist butchers here that have all those steaks. We can buy roo steaks and snags in the local supermarket.

Btw, which wouldn't you try?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting 363. Chicklit:
Evening, Wunderfolk.
Doc Masters said in a previous blog he thought manuel would be retired due to at that time 15 deaths.
Glad to see Texas is FINALLY getting some rain!
Go longhorns! It's been a long hot summer for them.
will just wait and see what develops next.
due to my heavy job responsibilities cannot keep up with you all anymore but appreciate your posts.


Long time lurker. Glad to see your post! Stick around, when you can.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
390. txjac
Up to 2.94"! And still coming!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 2953
Quoting 352. AussieStorm:

I understand what gator strips are but the rest um, no idea, but they do sound nice. If your ever down under, call in and I'll cook a BBQ that'll have roo steaks, croc steaks, emu steaks then my wife will cook up a storm of Longanissa, pancit, beef adobo and a few other dishes so you'll get a taste of Aussie and Filipino food.


Aye mate, I live in Florida and have a cajun wife, I have eaten everything yoboi has to offer, but 90% of what you ofer, I would love to try!

Maybe, one day I can get a vacation in your direction. What part of that great continent do you live on? With roos, and crocs....you must be a distance from Sydney?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
September 20th. No storms.

Something ain't right here..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh gawd.......

Chief Meteorologist Mike Morgan shared with our viewers a study conducted at the University of Oklahoma that upgraded the El Reno tornado’s width from 2.6 to 4.3 miles wide; making it a colossal “super tornado.”

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting yoboi:


Google death valley LSU...then ya will understand...

refer to #382..... LOL

Football isn't played with padding down here. We are MEN down here, we don't need no padding.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting 379. Chicklit:
expect the unexpected
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 17N19W TO 10N18W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.


Well, we do have 2+ more months of hurricane season, despite what the downers would have you believe...

I still contend getting that mummy MJO out of our hair finally re-set the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LAbonbon:


LOL - college football


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting 372. redwagon:




Anybody know what this spark is the BOC? Been at work 12 hours, is this that low that started out in Panama? I'll go see what NCEP has on it.




Holy cats..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
expect the unexpected
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 17N19W TO 10N18W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 283. DavidHOUTX:
Just picked up 1.8" of rain in my rain gauge in Sugar Land over the past hour and a half. Much more on the way. I LOVE it!


The Inner Loop is just now starting to get precipitation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N35W TO 16N35W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THE WAVE HAS BEEN UNDERCUT BY A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS WHICH CONTINUES TO LIMIT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 34W-36W.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 375. AussieStorm:

????


LOL - college football
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 4141
Quoting yoboi:



LSU is concerned about Auburn tomm Aussie...

????
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Sea ice surrounding Antarctica hit a record high in August and is on track for another record-breaking month in September. Clocking in at a stunning 7.2 million square miles (18.7 million square kilometers), last month's sea ice extent was 4.5 percent above the 1981 to 2010 average and the largest extent since record-keeping started in 1979, according to data released today from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in its monthly State of the Climate Report.

Link




2013 compared to 2012 and the lowest in 1986.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting 320. MsLoriG:
Pretty good lil storm moving through the Richmond/Katy TX area right now....sitting outside enjoying it!!


We, majority of posts I have seen, were wishing you in Texas good rain! Very happy that it is an enjyoyable amount, and not a drownder!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 369. yoboi:
Looks Like the heavy rain about to hitt east texas...




Anybody know what this spark is the BOC? Been at work 12 hours, is this that low that started out in Panama? I'll go see what NCEP has on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, I think it's safe to say the Eastern Pacific will be shut down for a while.


Western Pacific on the over hand is pretty active right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO looks to hang around in the West Pacific through early October, suggesting any activity in the East Pacific or Atlantic would be delayed until after that time.

Starting to think 2013 goes down as one of the weakest in modern record for the Atlantic. 9 named storms, 2 hurricanes, no majors, and an ACE of 23.4225 units on September 20.


I wonder what the NHC and LSU and all the other institutions that issue forecasts will come out and say, and will they all say the same?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Sea ice surrounding Antarctica hit a record high in August and is on track for another record-breaking month in September. Clocking in at a stunning 7.2 million square miles (18.7 million square kilometers), last month's sea ice extent was 4.5 percent above the 1981 to 2010 average and the largest extent since record-keeping started in 1979, according to data released today from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in its monthly State of the Climate Report.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 344. txjac:
Woo-hooo ...up to 2.44" of rain now! And it's still coming down.

Happy day for me


Happy for you!

There is fixin to be a big fight in Austin over the LCRA. Dirty rotten rats released enough water yesterday to the estuary, citing shrimp larvae, dropping Lake Travis 4" in 24 hours, KNOWING these big rains were coming to the estuaries.

A bigdog at LCRA resigned yesterday over 'something'. Becky Motal. Locals are starting to refer to the LCRA as
'Rice, Rice, Baby'.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 361. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO looks to hang around in the West Pacific through early October, suggesting any activity in the East Pacific or Atlantic would be delayed until after that time.

Starting to think 2013 goes down as one of the weakest in modern record for the Atlantic. 9 named storms, 2 hurricanes, no majors, and an ACE of 23.4225 units on September 20.


If the MJO stays in the W PAC, then we will see the global ACE unit skyrocket however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening, Wunderfolk.
Doc Masters said in a previous blog he thought manuel would be retired due to at that time 15 deaths.
Glad to see Texas is FINALLY getting some rain!
Go longhorns! It's been a long hot summer for them.
will just wait and see what develops next.
due to my heavy job responsibilities cannot keep up with you all anymore but appreciate your posts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
362. BDAwx
Usagi did this: 112mph sustained winds and ~923mb minimum pressure as the center passed nearby - a rare catch on hourly observations. This was on a Philippine island in between Luzon and Taiwan. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The MJO looks to hang around in the West Pacific through early October, suggesting any activity in the East Pacific or Atlantic would be delayed until after that time.

Starting to think 2013 goes down as one of the weakest in modern record for the Atlantic. 9 named storms, 2 hurricanes, no majors, and an ACE of 23.4225 units on September 20.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34176
Quoting 355. AussieStorm:

Get the hose out on full bore, that'll work.


XD sure
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6635
Quoting 348. LAbonbon:


Something like this?


LMAO!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6635
Anyone on from north LA? The rains have been pretty steady between Natchitoches and Monroe.

Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 4141
Quoting CaribBoy:
Breaking news

CATS FIGHTING ON MY ROOF.

---->>>> I think they need a fresh HEAVY SHOWER TO CALM DOWN LOL

Get the hose out on full bore, that'll work.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting Doppler22:

10% but i doubt it'll do anything

Of the named storms, we've had Barry, that became a TS, then keeled over and went west into Mexico from the BOC. We just had Ingrid, the "big one", who became an 85 mph cat 1 hurricane in the BOC, that keeled over and went into Mexico. 95L has been the most pathetic yet, which never even got to be a decent invest in the BOC, has keeled over, and gone into Mexico, and doesn't even have any convection associated with the "low". I think this makes the fourth invest to come off the Yucatan, form in the BOC, keel over, and make a left into Mexico. I'm not trying to be some kind of hero forecaster who gets every storm right, but it doesn't take a rocket scientists this year in the BOC. There is not enough instability to make a decent sized storm before a low gets to the BOC. Once it's in the BOC, the stable, dry air, strong ridge to the north, and easterlies makes it almost impossible for a storm to get far away from shore. The same topography that helps spin up a stronger storm when condition are better also traps weaker storms in the BOC until they run out of forward velocity and the cold upwelling from hanging around in the deep water offshore weakens the storm even further, until it final keels over and heads to shore. Until and if we can get a storm that's already strong before it gets into the BOC, this pattern will keep repeating itself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


That would do it.


AUSSIESTORM - How's the weather in the land down under?

Boring Blue skies. We did get about 0.1mm of rain yesterday from a passing cloud, it rained for maybe 30seconds or just long enough for me to race outside, grab the clothes of the line and back in the door and it stopped just as I turned around to close the glass door behind me
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting yoboi:


They got it Aussie....If ya ever down this way ya have a place to stay....I will feed ya some boudain, cracklings, and if ya come at the right time of year I will include some boiled crawfish and fried gator strips...and for dessert some fried frog legs with a side dish of yams with brown sugar and cane syrup...

I understand what gator strips are but the rest um, no idea, but they do sound nice. If your ever down under, call in and I'll cook a BBQ that'll have roo steaks, croc steaks, emu steaks then my wife will cook up a storm of Longanissa, pancit, beef adobo and a few other dishes so you'll get a taste of Aussie and Filipino food.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
351. Dakster
1:34 AM GMT on September 21, 2013
Quoting 347. CaribBoy:
Breaking news

CATS FIGHTING ON MY ROOF.

---->>>> I think they need a fresh HEAVY SHOWER TO CALM DOWN LOL


That would do it.


AUSSIESTORM - How's the weather in the land down under?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11655
350. Jedkins01
1:34 AM GMT on September 21, 2013
Quoting 245. hydrus:
Ida is 4th for the lowest pressure ever recorded.

High-altitude aircraft can be used to monitor weather systems. Typhoon Ida was photographed by a U-2 about 750 miles off the coast of the Philippines in 1958. The storm was characterized by surface winds of more than 200 knots and the lowest sea level atmospheric pressure ever recorded.
Date September 1958

Formed September 20, 1958
Dissipated September 27, 1958
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
325 km/h (200 mph)
Lowest pressure 877 mbar (hPa); 25.9 inHg
Fatalities 1,269 total
Damage $50 million (1958 USD)
Areas affected Japan



Absolutely amazing picture, I can't imagine experiencing a hurricane with 200 mph winds, that's Ef5 tornado strength winds, not even including rainfall flooding, surge flooding, and waves, incredible.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8994
349. etxwx
1:34 AM GMT on September 21, 2013
Quoting 342. txjac:


Cows are my all time favorite animal. The will be so happy when the grass shoots up. Are they the black and white kind or are they brown?

We have a variety of colors: a blond, several brunettes, a couple redheads, and a few black ones - some have some white markings. Our bull is all black so it's always interesting to see what color the young'uns end up being.

Glad to hear you got some rain txjac!

No rye grass yoboi...we have permanent mixed grass pasture.

I think I'm about to lose my satellite internet to the rain again...
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1652
348. LAbonbon
1:34 AM GMT on September 21, 2013
Quoting 347. CaribBoy:
Breaking news

CATS FIGHTING ON MY ROOF.

---->>>> I think they need a fresh HEAVY SHOWER TO CALM DOWN LOL


Something like this?
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 4141

Viewing: 398 - 348

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto