95L Remains Unorganized in the Gulf of Mexico

By: shauntanner , 6:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2013

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Invest 95L, located in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, is around 100 miles east of Tampico, Mexico Friday morning and is struggling to organize based on satellite imagery. Visible satellite shows the strongest thunderstorm activity has been displaced to the south of what would be the center of circulation. Only a few thunderstorms are associated with this disturbance currently, with the strongest of these on the southern and eastern edges.


Satellite image showing Invest 95L and a lack of thunderstorm development

The National Hurricane Center has decreased the likelihood of 95L developing over the next two days from 70% on Thursday to 30% heading into the weekend.  Some models suggest this disturbance could track north toward the Texas coast, where it could strengthen. This northward jog would be guided by a cold front that is forecast to track across the U.S over the weekend.  Regardless whether this disturbance develops, significant rain is expected from southern Texas through much of the Southeast as it will couple with the aforementioned cold front to draw considerable moisture northward. Upwards of 5 inches of rain (see image below) could fall along coastal areas from Texas through Mississippi even if the disturbance does not develop.


WPC forecast showing the QPF forecast for Friday through Monday.  Note the significant rain expected through the Southeast due to the combination of the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and a cold front moving through the eastern U.S.


Model tracks showing some possible paths of Invest 95L

Super Typhoon Usagi

Usagi maintained Super Typhoon strength on its path just south Taiwan and north of Philippines.  With a wind strength of 150 mph, Usagi is taking a reasonably good path as the official forecast takes the typhoon into the South China Sea and weakens it into a Category 2 storm before eventual landfall near Shenzen on Sunday.  This will still be a strong storm with the capability of doing considerable damage and significant flooding.


Tracking map of Super Typhoon Usagi.

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Brrr...I bet folks in North Dakota are like what happened to summer?

... Frost advisory in effect from 3 am to 9 am CDT Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Bismarck has issued a frost
advisory... which is in effect from 3 am to 9 am CDT Saturday.

* Temperature... 33 to 37 degrees.

* Impacts... sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left
unprotected... especially in low-lying areas near rivers and
creeks.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor
plants may be killed if left unprotected.



Tm
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See what had happened was...





Raises hand, professor what happened to this hurricane season? I feel like the conditions were actually there, but something meteorological we haven't discovered yet prevented this season from living up to expectations. How does that sound?

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Looks like a triple eyewall structure with Usagi:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Ida is 4th for the lowest pressure ever recorded.

High-altitude aircraft can be used to monitor weather systems. Typhoon Ida was photographed by a U-2 about 750 miles off the coast of the Philippines in 1958. The storm was characterized by surface winds of more than 200 knots and the lowest sea level atmospheric pressure ever recorded.
Date September 1958

Formed September 20, 1958
Dissipated September 27, 1958
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
325 km/h (200 mph)
Lowest pressure 877 mbar (hPa); 25.9 inHg
Fatalities 1,269 total
Damage $50 million (1958 USD)
Areas affected Japan
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Nothing here yet in Baton Rouge, but it's getting awfully close.



And, to my west:

Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
down to 20 percent, whoever said 2 days ago that the NHC has it at 70 percent so I was wrong for saying it wouldnt form just cause the NHC had it that high and I said that the NHC would lower and be wrong. knock knock whos there me. me who, me is right again
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Quoting 226. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Pfft...you still got to go through them Canes.
Clemson says hello as well...
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Seems a bit early for this... by the way, the GFS 192 map has nothing to do with tonights frost advisory..
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
342 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...FROST LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...

.CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

MNZ001-002-004-005-007-008-013>016-022-023-NDZ006 >008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-049-052-054-211400-
/O.NEW.KFGF.FR.Y.0002.130921T0800Z-130921T1400Z/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-KITTSON-ROSEAU-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-
EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-
RANSOM-SARGENT-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...WARREN...NEWFOLDEN.. .
THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...BAGLEY...
MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...CANDO...LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...
LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...
GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...
LISBON...GWINNER...ADAMS
342 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY.

* TIMING...FROST WILL BECOME LIKELY MAINLY AFTER 3AM

* TEMPERATURE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&
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I think I forgot what a hurricane looks like on the GFS model in the Atlantic. :/

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239. beell
Quoting 221. txjac:


I'm still high and dry too David


2.3". NE Harris County.
Not bragging, jus' sayin'.
:)
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Quoting 223. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if this has been posted yet -- Usagi at peak intensity yesterday afternoon:



Image courtesy of the National Severe Storms Laboratory.
Nice, comparable to Jelawat. Man why can't we have at least one of those in the Atlantic this year, one like Igor that stays OTS.

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Quoting 230. sebastianflorida:

What does this mean plz?


Good chance of rain for south Fla. starting Sunday night.
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looks to be a heavy rain event unfolding in the next 24 hours onward for the Southeast states..

18z GFS -24 hours


18z Navgem

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Basco Radar, Philippines is reporting sustained winds of 112 miles an hour, with the eyewall still just offshore of the island.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WILSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

* AT 518 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH WILSON
COUNTY NEAR SUTHERLAND SPRINGS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST 3
HOURS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
FLORESVILLE...STOCKDALE...LA VERNIA AND SUTHERLAND SPRINGS.

AN OBSERVER JUST WEST OF SUTHERLAND SPRINGS REPORTED 4.30 INCHES IN
THE PAST 2 TO 3 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2904 9834 2911 9840 2912 9840 2923 9831
2937 9816 2938 9808 2938 9786 2920 9791
2898 9827

$$
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Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
MSZ047>049-053>055-062-202250-
WARREN MS-SIMPSON MS-RANKIN MS-LINCOLN MS-HINDS MS-COPIAH MS-
CLAIBORNE MS-
506 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
506 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...LINE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH IN COPIAH AND TO
SOUTHERN HINDS COUNTY TOWARDS JACKSON...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF CARPENTER TO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MARTINSVILLE AT 504 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

THE PUBLIC HAS REPORTED STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS THAT HAVE
BLOWN DOWN SMALL LIMBS FROM TREES IN CENTRAL COPIAH COUNTY NEAR
GLANCY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE...COPIAH...SOUTHERN HINDS...
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
SIMPSON AND EAST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3235 9068 3224 9033 3205 9015 3194 9017
3160 9033 3186 9047 3196 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 196DEG 38KT 3203 9068 3195 9044
3178 9034

$$

JA
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Quoting 220. DavidHOUTX:
The entire SW side of Houston area hasn't received very much rain. All is to the North, NE and NW lol. Kinda crazy but I think as the night goes on, this will fill in and give that area some more rain.


I had my hopes high for today, but it's not looking good at all. I'm in the Alief area. Nothing but a few sprinkles here and there
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Quoting 216. GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE PLENTY
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES EWD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE 2.25 TO 2.4" RANGE...WHICH IS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING RECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND
SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...ANY TRAINING
SETTING UP WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SHOW THEIR DIFFERENCES AFTER WEDNESDAY
...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPENING THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION
PER MODEL CYCLE AND NOW INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD OUT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BACK TOWARD OUR
AREA BY FRIDAY. CONSIDERING THESE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATE MODEL RUNS.

What does this mean plz?
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<
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228. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
6:00 AM JST September 21 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 16.3N 146.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.9N 144.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON USAGI (T1319)
6:00 AM JST September 21 2013
======================================

Sea South Of Okinawa

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Usagi (915 hPa) located at 20.5N 122.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.4N 117.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Northern South China Sea
45 HRS: 22.9N 114.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Southern China
69 HRS: 23.7N 109.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Southern China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45643
I am in NE Houston and its poured here all day! Hope it spreads out your way!
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Quoting 175. StormTrackerScott:
Go Noles! Could this be the year we win the BCS?
Pfft...you still got to go through them Canes.
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Quoting FWBRuss:


Maybe us wish casters to the east produced more rain than you wanted, maybe not.

Look at the good side. Texas got a bath, and based on what is pushing done from the north on the backside, deodorant too! Dry air , low humidity, and awesome temps happening on the western side of the state already. Did they get enough rain?

Somebody slap me if it is worse conditions than my charts say, just got off work.


I got about an inch at my house in San Antonio. Radar seems to show that things are clearing out. Also the "cold front" has pushed through - I smell cedar from the Hill Country.
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Quoting 221. txjac:


I'm still high and dry too David


We need to get our rain dances on!
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Not sure if this has been posted yet -- Usagi at peak intensity yesterday afternoon:



Image courtesy of the National Severe Storms Laboratory.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting StormTrackerScott:

Wowsers! Over the nest 7 days, SE Alabama might get 2.5" of rain (which is never right anyway) and the highest rainfall on the Panhandle might be around 5 inches? It hasn't rain here in 8 days and everything is drying up. The high today was 97, and that has been one of our cooler days this month. If we could get 2.5" of rain over the next 7 days, it would be great. I think I'll wait to pre-position the rowboat until the weekend at least though. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16150
221. txjac
Quoting 220. DavidHOUTX:
The entire SW side of Houston area hasn't received very much rain. All is to the North, NE and NW lol. Kinda crazy but I think as the night goes on, this will fill in and give that area some more rain.


I'm still high and dry too David
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The entire SW side of Houston area hasn't received very much rain. All is to the North, NE and NW lol. Kinda crazy but I think as the night goes on, this will fill in and give that area some more rain.
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219. txjac
Quoting 218. 1900hurricane:
I'm really hoping this holds together.



Me too buddy, me too
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I'm really hoping this holds together.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
217. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #16
TYPHOON ODETTE
5:00 AM PhST September 21 2013
=================================================

Typhoon "ODETTE" has intensified and is now in the vicinity of the Batanes Group of Islands

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Odette [USAGI] (927 hPa) located at 20.4N 122.3E or 30 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #4

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Signal Warning #3

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Calayan Group of Islands
2. Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #2

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Cagayan
2. Apayao
3. Ilocos Norte

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Abra
2. Kalinga
3. Isabela
4. Northern Aurora
5. Quirino
6. Nueva Vizcaya
7. Benguet
8. La Union
9. Ilocos Sur
10. Mt. Province
11. Ifugao

Additional Information
========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 900 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signals #4, #3, #2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #4, #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges.

"ODETTE" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over the western sections of southern Luzon. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert against flash floods and landslides.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45643
From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE PLENTY
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES EWD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE 2.25 TO 2.4" RANGE...WHICH IS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING RECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND
SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...ANY TRAINING
SETTING UP WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SHOW THEIR DIFFERENCES AFTER WEDNESDAY
...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPENING THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DRIVING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION
PER MODEL CYCLE AND NOW INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD OUT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BACK TOWARD OUR
AREA BY FRIDAY. CONSIDERING THESE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATE MODEL RUNS.
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Warm anomalies over the GOA and diminishing -anomalies off the west coast doesn't bode well for a strong negative PDO. It's looking more and more neutral to me.
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0262
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY TO THE ARKLATEX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 202000Z - 210200Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE BAND IS MOVING INTO
INCREASING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES, REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A LONG BAND OF HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS FROM THE TX HILL
COUNTRY NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN TX TOWARDS THE LA/AR BORDER,
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN AND WESTERN LA. THE 15Z HRRR APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN THE BEST WITHIN THIS REGION AT THIS TIME.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF FOR THE RAIN BAND IS A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
FROM UVALDE TX NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PINEY WOODS OF EASTERN TX
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL LA/AR BORDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
2-2.5 INCHES, IN THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER, ARE
HELPING INCREASE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. THE 12Z ARW/18Z RAP
INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE
BEING ADVECTED TOWARDS THE FRONTAL ZONE. LOW-LEVEL INFLOW/0-3 KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS EXISTS NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER. THIS
COMBINATION OF CAPE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WET MACROBURST MULTICELLS. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS ACTING AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE 850-400 HPA FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WHICH IS A PLUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE BAND SHOULD MOVE
IN SUIT. THE MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TOWARDS THE LA/MS BORDER, WHICH WAS USED TO DEFINE THE EASTERN
BOUND OF THE AREA. AS LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST, THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR WERE
RECENTLY NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY. COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE AREA, REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING
IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.


ROTH/TERRY

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... EWX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 29659584 29119783 29229889 30519771 32179577 33029405
33949188 33749099 32439122 30909309 29659584
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Pretty good rains across the Colorado River Basin in the past 48 hours.

Lower Colorado River Authority
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
212. nw5b
1.5" of rain in north Austin so far today by my weather station.

Looks like it's slacking off, but more predicted through tomorrow.
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Quoting 193. SLU:


El Nino better not come because I won't be able to tolerate six months of hot, dry and boring weather after this embarrassing hurricane season.

In the Caribbean, "near normal" rainfall in FMA means hot, dry and boring conditions.



+ 1000000000000
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Also noticing the pressure drop here. It's at 29.69 in and falling. Tells me 95L is getting close by. This and a noticable spin on radar means he's somewhat alive still.
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Manuel should be retire imo it was the one storm that makes the season memorable this is the type of storms I hate to see,but knowing Mexico with its flip flops in retirement is a 50/50 chance.The death toll should climb up in the coming days sadly.I was watching the Mexican channels and it looks terrible with all the devastation caused by it,almost none mention Ingrid.
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Nat should have got some, she posted about rain earlier. I got 1 ", but ILwthr's the one who really needs it and he hadn't received any so far, but they may have just gotten a little, but radar fooled me earlier, so...

Finally not at 71 w/ 71 dew pt, moved to 70 & 70! lol, everyone have a good weekend, time for a brewski in celebration of the rain.
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Quoting 166. washingtonian115:
You sir have just ruined my hopes!

Some El-neutral winters in the DC area produce a lot of snow. ENSO isn't the only term. By the way, it ain't over in DC till the last days of March (Metro) and mid April (Western 'burbs). Winter 1941-42 produced a measly 2" of snow until March 29 1942 when another foot+ fell. In my own time slightly to the northeast (Princeton NJ) I faced blizzard conditions on April 6, 1982, followed by accumulating snow on the roads April 19, 1983. April 7, 1971 AND 1972 produced afternoon snow in Annandale VA (an inner DC suburb) and one of these years ( I think it was 1972) produced afternoon glaze as well which is amazing for SPRING! in the daytime.



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Quoting 186. hydrus:
Yep. 10 more of those, and things may back to normal....Spaced accordingly as to no flash flooding.


Hydrus, great numbers! I wa concerne more....and would have to look them up...Nice post!
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Seeing the first shower in Middle TN now.. supposed to get over an inch tonight.. Knock down some of the dust!
Have a great weekend everyone... maybe 95L will surprise us after all?!
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Typhoon Usagi is still undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Don't expect much change in intensity, maybe slight weakening, over the next few hours.



Looks like high-end Category 3 intensity to me.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Whatever is left of 95L is starting to come out on Brownsville radar. Note the spin approaching from the sse. Could enhance more rain with the front as it stalls
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Quoting 175. StormTrackerScott:
Go Noles! Could this be the year we win the BCS?


Winston is a damn good looking QB for being a young guy, aint he? :)

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201. VR46L
Quoting 198. txjac:



Nope, not joking.
Still have chances for later this evening and hopefully tomorrow


Fingers and toes crossed :)
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200. etxwx
We’ve had 1.75 inches so far here in northern Jasper Co. It’s been a really nice rain too, some showers, then a pause to soak in, then more showers – it’s softened the ground and not much run off yet. I’m lovin’ this! Hoping everyone who is dry gets some of this wonderful rain...
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199. VR46L
Quoting 189. FWBRuss:
Is Natalie on? The rain swath looks solid from Bonbons/Kori/Pat location clear up to Illinois, and current drop in Texas.  East Texas still getting rain, and not too much by the maps.
Link


Haven't seen her all afternoon ! Hope she gets some of the rain coming thru !

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198. txjac
Quoting 194. VR46L:


Please tell me you are joking ...

That is so unlucky !



Nope, not joking.
Still have chances for later this evening and hopefully tomorrow
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.