Manuel Hits Mexico Again, 138 Dead or Missing; Cat 4 Usagi a Threat to Hong Kong

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:56 PM GMT on September 19, 2013

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Hurricane Manuel made landfall in the Mexican state of Sinaloa almost due east of the tip of the Baja Peninsula this Thursday morning near 8 am EDT, as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. It was Manuel's second landfall this week in storm-weary Mexico. Manuel hit the coast on Monday as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds northwest of Acapulco, bringing torrential rains of up to foot in the coastal mountains. The combined one-two punch of Manuel on Mexico's Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast this week have caused flooding blamed for at least 80 deaths. Another 58 people are missing and probably dead in a landslide that hit La Pintada, several hours north of Acapulco. The double blow by Manuel and Ingrid this week was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and up to a foot of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause additional flash floods and mudslides over the next few days. Mexican radar shows that Manuel is moving very slowly inland, and should weaken significantly as long as the eye stays ashore. Satellite images show that Manuel is a small storm, and its heavy rains are affecting a relatively limited area. With such a large death toll, it is possible that the name Manuel will be retired from the list of active Eastern Pacific hurricanes; only three other Pacific storms that hit Mexico have had their names retired.


Figure 1. Hurricane Manuel at landfall in the Mexican state of Sinaloa at 7:15 am EDT September 19, 2013. Image credit: Conagua.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 9-day period September 9 - 18, 2013, as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. Rainfall amounts of 12" inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico near Acapulco. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).

Invest 95L in Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about--Invest 95L, over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Satellite loops show that 95L has a pronounced spin, but only a small area of heavy thunderstorms. The thunderstorms are causing some isolated heavy downpours along the coast of Mexico, as seen on Mexican radar. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, which appears to be slowing down development. A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon, but I expect this flight will be cancelled, due to 95L's lack of heavy thunderstorms.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4".


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Usagi, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on September 19, 2013. At the time, Usagi was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Dangerous Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan and Hong Kong
In the Western Pacific, powerful and dangerous Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next day, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 5 super typhoon by Friday, which would make Usagi Earth's first Category 5 storm of 2013. Usagi will pass very close to the southern tip of Taiwan at 06 UTC Saturday (2 am EDT), and interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. However, Usagi is still expected to be a major Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall near Hong Kong at approximately 00 UTC Sunday (8 pm EDT Saturday.) Satellite images show that Usagi is a large and very impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a thick eyewall with intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere.

Friday's blog update will be later than usual, as I am taking the day off, and one of wunderground's San Francisco-based meteorologists will be filling in for me.

Jeff Masters

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1790. HuracanTaino
7:38 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
]
Quoting MahFL:
The wave at 55 W should normally be developing nicely, as shear is low and not much dry air, but it being 2013 it's NOT !
Agree, at this time of the year(around or just past peak) waves at that position and with marginal or good environmental conditions should develop rather quick... but as you say is 2013,,,don't expect much, out of it...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1008
1789. hydrus
7:01 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1786. weathermanwannabe:
Good Afternoon. Given that this Blog is based out of the US and a large portion of the Bloggers on here are from Florida and the Gulf Coast regions (for obvious reasons), we tend to discuss "the one" in terms of memorable past Conus strikes or potential/future storms.

The tropics spans both basins (Atlantic and Pacific) and while the Atlantic has been suppressed this year, they have had a bang up season on the Pacific side and we are still counting deaths in Mexico from the two recent storms; this season will be memorable for them in terms of the "one" this year even though none were major hurricanes.

The United States have been very lucky since 2006 in terms of major hurricane landfalls but we have also had our share of flooding/surge issues from several "mere" tropical storms in recent years.

The "one" could come in any given season but so far this year, I am grateful (and particularly at the pump in recent weeks) that we have not gotten a storm in the Gulf disrupting gas production and that insurance reserves can build up a little bit (flooding claims are still taking a bit hit this year regardless).

Hurricane tracking is fun but the lack of major strikes in any given season for the Caribbean/US/Mexico is a better outcome in any given year regardless of the predictions and whether they busted or not.

We have seen some unusual things in recent years but Mother Nature is the only one in control; we over predicted this year (bust forecast) but we also grossly under predicted the record-setting 2005 season (another bust forecast).

The next several seasons will probably be just as interesting.

Good post. I do count Sandy as a big one for the U.S. There are a few that would agree with me.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23347
1788. PalmBeachWeather
6:40 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1773. pottery:


Fishermen are the most Optimistic people I know...

And I should know.

:)::
And biggest liars
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6001
1787. TimSoCal
6:30 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1779. PedleyCA:


Like someone flipped a switch and we went back to June. Marine Layer again this morning. There are a couple of eddies out there too. Hey Joe, are you under this mess this morning or are you too far inland.


Marine layer is strong in the SF valley today. Love it, love it, love it.
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 870
1786. weathermanwannabe
6:19 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Good Afternoon. Given that this Blog is based out of the US and a large portion of the Bloggers on here are from Florida and the Gulf Coast regions (for obvious reasons), we tend to discuss "the one" in terms of memorable past Conus strikes or potential/future storms.

The tropics spans both basins (Atlantic and Pacific) and while the Atlantic has been suppressed this year, they have had a bang up season on the Pacific side and we are still counting deaths in Mexico from the two recent storms; this season will be memorable for them in terms of the "one" this year even though none were major hurricanes.

The United States have been very lucky since 2006 in terms of major hurricane landfalls but we have also had our share of flooding/surge issues from several "mere" tropical storms in recent years.

The "one" could come in any given season but so far this year, I am grateful (and particularly at the pump in recent weeks) that we have not gotten a storm in the Gulf disrupting gas production and that insurance reserves can build up a little bit (flooding claims are still taking a bit hit this year regardless).

Hurricane tracking is fun but the lack of major strikes in any given season for the Caribbean/US/Mexico is a better outcome in any given year regardless of the predictions and whether they busted or not.

We have seen some unusual things in recent years but Mother Nature is the only one in control; we over predicted this year (bust forecast) but we also grossly under predicted the record-setting 2005 season (another bust forecast).

The next several seasons will probably be just as interesting.

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9700
1785. calkevin77
6:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Its starting to really come down here in downtown Austin right now. One station is reporting 3.7 inches per hour rainfall rate. Come to papa.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 868
1784. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1783. dabirds
6:14 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
The .8 soaked in pretty fast, but imagine it will depend on whether sun pops out this afternoon or not.

Sorry it dried up, thought radar showed a nice little yellow spot around you.

Should be a couple of fun weekends, Cubs-Cards in StL next Sat.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 830
1782. ILwthrfan
6:09 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1772. dabirds:
Looked like you finally got some, we got another 1.1" w/ it still drizzling a bit, a very welcome and needed 2" in S C IL. Will keep the dust down on the annual 4 wheeler ride tomorrow.


We only got just over a TRACE again here, didn't even get a little puddle. lol just can't seem to buy a drop here lately. Everything evaporates before it closes in on I-57.



Most of the time this stations records about 90% the value that I record in my three different gages; however as of right now I'm just under 0.10". Bringing our 8 week total to a whopping 0.35"




I got imagine a good bit of mud down there for four-wheeling day, that will certainly make things funner, or at least messier!
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1579
1781. EyEtoEyE
6:08 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
If I am right we are at 9 / 2 / 0. I would say we will finish at 16 / 6 / 3 ! With 1 major , cat 4 or 5 ! Just my best guess , has anyone seen the 2014 Farmers almanac , look at Florida , we will be dodging storms , and hurricanes , all year !
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
1780. Torito
6:08 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
T-Waves:

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1779. PedleyCA
6:07 PM GMT on September 20, 2013


Like someone flipped a switch and we went back to June. Marine Layer again this morning. There are a couple of eddies out there too. Hey Joe, are you under this mess this morning or are you too far inland.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6458
1778. Torito
6:06 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
next invest IMO:

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1777. Torito
6:06 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Cold front attaching to ex-manuel's moisture:

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1776. yonzabam
6:05 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1760. floridafisherman:


that's funny, I thought 2012 and 2013 were SUPPOSED to be elnino years, but guess what....it never happened. the same thing can happen in 2014. just my opinion, but I think anyone who makes predictions that far off and thinks its set in stone don't really know what they are talking about in the first place. sort of like believing the model when its 200 hrs out... and even in el nino years, there is still tropical activity, it just happens to be surpressed a bit.


It's a while since we had a strong El Nino. Next time it happens, the global temperature record will be smashed, and there could be some 'interesting' phenomena.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3072
1775. Torito
6:05 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Remnants of Manuel:

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1774. Torito
6:04 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
95L

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1773. pottery
6:04 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting floridafisherman:


those numbers are still very possible.... one major brings it to 10-3-1 and then all you would need are 6 ts to round it out. plenty of time for that to happen. I think we will probably even get subtropical system after the season ends (probably something forming on the tail end of a front)


Fishermen are the most Optimistic people I know...

And I should know.

:)::
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25236
1772. dabirds
6:02 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1770. ILwthrfan:
Texas getting great beneficial rains from Manuel moisture.

Looked like you finally got some, we got another 1.1" w/ it still drizzling a bit, a very welcome and needed 2" in S C IL. Will keep the dust down on the annual 4 wheeler ride tomorrow.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 830
1771. panthan63
6:02 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
hurricane season is like baseball. we spend weeks looking for and praying for something major to happen with our favorite team. and then they go into a slump, and weeks go by. then maybe things pick up a little just before the playoffs. and then you have the main thrust of the entire season, the playoffs. will the playoffs be a bust this year? and whoop! i am enjoying this rain!!!came down here in Bryan slow enough to soak into the ground for the most part. does not go well with newspapers, though, with the number of customers complaining their paper was wet.
Member Since: March 15, 2009 Posts: 5 Comments: 23
1770. ILwthrfan
5:57 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Texas getting great beneficial rains from Manuels' moisture.

Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1579
1769. Torito
5:55 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1768. floridafisherman:


those numbers are still very possible.... one major brings it to 10-3-1 and then all you would need are 6 ts to round it out. plenty of time for that to happen. I think we will probably even get subtropical system after the season ends (probably something forming on the tail end of a front)


Yea it is possible, but more likely to not happen than it is to happen
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1768. floridafisherman
5:51 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1761. Torito:


I said 16-3-1 so im off too :P


those numbers are still very possible.... one major brings it to 10-3-1 and then all you would need are 6 ts to round it out. plenty of time for that to happen. I think we will probably even get subtropical system after the season ends (probably something forming on the tail end of a front)
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
1767. panthan63
5:51 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
well, the first hurricane of the season, Humberto, acted just like i thought it would. continued to meander into cooler waters and lose strength. i may have missed it... i am behind reading my spam and email, has anyone put forth an explanation of how cool the water in the Atlantic is, especially that far south? entire area from Africa to Caribbean was in the darker reds and the gulf was in the next level before, like during 2005. is this normal, or was 2005 closer to normal?
Member Since: March 15, 2009 Posts: 5 Comments: 23
1766. IKE
5:48 PM GMT on September 20, 2013

Quoting muddertracker:
Let's face it. At this point, it's more likely that we get a blizzard before we see another hurricane. lol
You could be right.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1765. barbamz
5:47 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1758. TheDawnAwakening:


Outer eyewall contracting as inner eyewall collapses, cycle may be quicker than forecasted. I see no dry air issues with Usagi.


Comparatively "dry", lol.



Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 7145
1764. muddertracker
5:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Let's face it. At this point, it's more likely that we get a blizzard before we see another hurricane. lol
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1763. WalkingInTheSun
5:45 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Ex-Manuel seems to be visiting Texas, and it shows even in the windshear loop. Lots of moisture that, on WV loop, even looks rather like a tropical disturbance. :-o

On the bright side, the TX system seems to be progressing more quickly, so maybe it'll clear the state instead of stalling -- not sure what recent forecast is on that. 95L being drawn up toward TX, with moisture converging between it and ex-Manuel's moisture -- could be problematic but maybe will end more quickly than previously expected....or not.

Rain expected through Saturday last I heard.Arkansas (& NE TX) may be in for some big rains by the looks of the WV loop (but not this one due to logo). In view of ex-Manuel seeming to get sucking into Texas so abundantly, not sure how long a rain event it will turn out to be, but might clear out nicely, afterwards.

Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
1762. IKE
5:43 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAMPICO...IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SINCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED...AND THE LOW IS LESS DEFINED...THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER...COULD STILL FAVOR SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MISSION SCHEDULED
FOR TODAY WAS CANCELLED.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1761. Torito
5:41 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1759. skycycle:


Me not so much at 18/8/4 :D


I said 16-3-1 so im off too :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1760. floridafisherman
5:41 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1755. Tazmanian:



2014 season will be a EL nino season and you no what happens in EL nino season


that's funny, I thought 2012 and 2013 were SUPPOSED to be elnino years, but guess what....it never happened. the same thing can happen in 2014. just my opinion, but I think anyone who makes predictions that far off and thinks its set in stone don't really know what they are talking about in the first place. sort of like believing the model when its 200 hrs out... and even in el nino years, there is still tropical activity, it just happens to be surpressed a bit.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
1759. skycycle
5:40 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1756. SouthTampa:
I'm feeling pretty comfortable at 12/3/0.


Me not so much at 18/8/4 :D
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
1758. TheDawnAwakening
5:39 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1725. barbamz:

MIMC Usagi


Outer eyewall contracting as inner eyewall collapses, cycle may be quicker than forecasted. I see no dry air issues with Usagi.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
1757. floridafisherman
5:37 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1752. Bluestorm5:
We still got Western Caribbean fuel, though... we could get something there in October like it historically does. Wait and see.


ya, didn't Wilma, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the atlantic basin, occur in LATE OCTOBER?? I agree that the season is not over by a long shot....all these folks who were calling the season over in august sure got fooled when we had 4 storms or so in the first couple weeks of sept. October can bring the same thing. personally, I think anyone whos calling the season over or a bust are just trolling for comments and crying for attention. there are still 2 months left in season, plenty of very warm SST in the gulf and caribean, and we are entering the time of the year when it historically produces TS in said areas.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
1756. SouthTampa
5:36 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1726. calkevin77:
Remember this?
Wow. Doing about as lovely as my fantasy football league lol.



Larger image
I'm feeling pretty comfortable at 12/3/0.
Member Since: June 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
1755. Tazmanian
5:36 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1753. Tribucanes:


Taz cheer up, you sound down right depressed about the season. There's a zero percent chance we end up 9-2-0. Danger still lurks, and as Andrew proved, even the dullest of seasons can provide a storm or two that is unforgettable. And your not coming back until 2015? Come on, your a tropics addict like most of us here, see you later today and tomorrow. Still think there's a 55-65% chance we'll get one or more majors this year, hang in there.



2014 season will be a EL nino season and you no what happens in EL nino season
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115572
1754. Tazmanian
5:34 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
95L rip


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAMPICO...IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SINCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED...AND THE LOW IS LESS DEFINED...THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER...COULD STILL FAVOR SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MISSION SCHEDULED
FOR TODAY WAS CANCELLED.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115572
1753. Tribucanes
5:33 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1743. Tazmanian:
hurricane season ends with 9-2-0


Taz cheer up, you sound down right depressed about the season. There's a zero percent chance we end up 9-2-0. Danger still lurks, and as Andrew proved, even the dullest of seasons can provide a storm or two that is unforgettable. And your not coming back until 2015? Come on, your a tropics addict like most of us here, see you later today and tomorrow. Still think there's a 55-65% chance we'll get one or more majors this year, hang in there.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1752. Bluestorm5
5:31 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1749. Tazmanian:



in a norml year may be but this is 2013 and what I have seen so far in 2013 hurricane season could vary well end vary early this year
We still got Western Caribbean fuel, though... we could get something there in October like it historically does. Wait and see.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8077
1751. floridafisherman
5:31 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1743. Tazmanian:
hurricane season ends with 9-2-0



uhhhh....hurricane season is NOT over......not for another 2 months.......stop trolling please
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
1750. Bluestorm5
5:30 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1747. SuperStorm093:
and when another month goes by and nothing major storms have formed, you will say hey guys we stil have all of november lol
Since blog is not active, I guess it's okay to respond to you...

You're the one coming on here in August and have done nothing but repeatedly downcast the season. Honestly, you never know what's going to occur in hurricane season. Forecasts busted badly, yes... but we are still at the risk for "The One". WPAC had been quiet most of year until Usagi and that super typhoon is "The One" of season considering it's heading directly for Hong Kong.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8077
1749. Tazmanian
5:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1746. Bluestorm5:
You do realized we got 2 and half months left, right?



in a norml year may be but this is 2013 and what I have seen so far in 2013 hurricane season could vary well end vary early this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115572
1748. 7544
5:26 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1745. stoormfury:
good outflow from north of disturbance east of the islands There is low clouds streaming to an area which appears to have a LLC


this might be 96l soon imo. maybe a yellow by the nhc sometime tonight looks like it may head west ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
1747. SuperStorm093
5:25 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1746. Bluestorm5:
You do realized we got 2 and half months left, right?
and when another month goes by and nothing major storms have formed, you will say hey guys we stil have all of november lol
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
1746. Bluestorm5
5:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1743. Tazmanian:
hurricane season ends with 9-2-0
You do realized we got 2 and half months left, right?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8077
1745. stoormfury
5:20 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
good outflow from north of disturbance east of the islands There is low clouds streaming to an area which appears to have a LLC
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2733
1744. barbamz
5:19 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1736. daddyjames:


Wow that is an excellent portrayal of the eyewall replacement. Send it to Lee!


Lol, he apparently just did it by himself (before me). I'm too late.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 7145
1743. Tazmanian
5:18 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
hurricane season ends with 9-2-0
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115572
1742. Tazmanian
5:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1738. hurricanes2018:
watch out for invest 96L AND INVEST 97L SOON.




nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115572
1741. hurricanes2018
5:14 PM GMT on September 20, 2013

watch out for invest 96L AND INVEST 97L SOON.



Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 137 Comments: 123228
1740. calkevin77
5:14 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Quoting 1734. Tazmanian:



yep we all busted are hurricane forcast


Errr umm I think we all meant for our forecast to be applied to the Pacific season. Yeah that's it :)
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 868

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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