Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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1399. trey33
4:45 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Does anyone have a weekend forecast for Pensacola? Thanks.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 499
1398. VAbeachhurricanes
3:28 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1381. Xyrus2000:


Nobody said that.

Lack of hurricanes - GW to blame


No one said that either, however that is the eventual expected result by the end of the century.

Ah well, at least it's not being blamed on the President.


Depends on your source of news. Certain organizations blame the president for everything, even for things that don't exist. :)



Really? I'm pretty sure a lot of global warming scientists say there will be more hurricanes... Or have said that in the past
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6670
1397. MahFL
1:40 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Looks to me like 95L is heading back onshore, in MX.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
1396. ILwthrfan
1:34 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1387. Envoirment:


Utor's peak strength wasn't recorded because the intensity updates didn't occur during the time it reached it. I believe at one point Utor's Dvorak number indicated a strength of 161kts, although it only stayed like that briefly before it started an eyewall replacement cycle.

Hopefully Usagi won't cause much damage or take any lives, but considering it's going to effect Tawain and China as a strong system, and the Phillipes will be affected by its outer rains/winds, it might become the deadliest and costliest storm so far.


Thanks, I was wondering if what I posted was right, should have looked it up.



Although Usagi has a more impressive structure I believe. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if this maxed out somewhere around 180 knots. It has that look. What our the T #'s for Usagi at the moment?
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
1395. rickdove
1:02 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1388. Murko:


Typical Daily Fail and Rush Limbaugh nonsense.

What the IPCC said in 2007 was that warming between 1990 and 2005 had been measured at 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. In a different section, it reported that warming over a longer period -- the last 50 years -- was about 0.13°C (0.23°F) per decade. This makes sense since, as we know climate change is ramping up more quickly of late. If the new assessment really says we've been warming at 0.12°C (0.22°F) per decade since 1951, it will mean the IPCC was almost exactly right. As a scientist misquoted in the article noted, an accurate headline would have been "Global warming is just 92 percent of what we said it was" (rather than "Global warming is just HALF what we said," as the story was titled before a recent edit). Other scientists deemed the Daily Mail's claims "incorrect" and emphasized that the report's findings have not been finalized.


Dont get side tracked. Climate change is a fact and has existed since the planet formed. What is to be debated is whether human beings can destroy the planet thru the use of natural resources.
Member Since: September 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
1394. RGVtropicalWx13
12:58 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Once again it is NOT BOC Trash!!! Get over it. Also u can't be sure if 2014 is an el nino season. It can sometimes be a trick for some of you that it'll be an above year. Just watch and see folks. Remember to always be patient.
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 567
1393. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:56 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1392. hurricanes2018
12:55 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
big hurricane with 980 mb
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 48 Comments: 81116
1391. FunnelVortex
12:45 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1390. allancalderini:
Are you sure 2009 and 2006 were so boring I almost die of borement.2009 though had Fred and Bill the only to see of those season.2006 Gordon and Helene were nothing special.


At least it had a couple impressive storms. So far we only had Humberto. And it was mediocre.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1390. allancalderini
12:38 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1385. FunnelVortex:


An El Ninio would still be better than this.
Are you sure 2009 and 2006 were so boring I almost die of borement.2009 though had Fred and Bill the only to see of those season.2006 Gordon and Helene were nothing special.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4458
1389. weatherman994
12:38 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
1386. FunnelVortex this season is a bust nothin can get going.
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
1388. Murko
12:35 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1307. trunkmonkey:
DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top climate scientists admit global warming forecasts were wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Typical Daily Fail and Rush Limbaugh nonsense.

What the IPCC said in 2007 was that warming between 1990 and 2005 had been measured at 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. In a different section, it reported that warming over a longer period -- the last 50 years -- was about 0.13°C (0.23°F) per decade. This makes sense since, as we know climate change is ramping up more quickly of late. If the new assessment really says we've been warming at 0.12°C (0.22°F) per decade since 1951, it will mean the IPCC was almost exactly right. As a scientist misquoted in the article noted, an accurate headline would have been "Global warming is just 92 percent of what we said it was" (rather than "Global warming is just HALF what we said," as the story was titled before a recent edit). Other scientists deemed the Daily Mail's claims "incorrect" and emphasized that the report's findings have not been finalized.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1387. Envoirment
12:34 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1372. ILwthrfan:
Usagi easily this year's most intense storm, or will be by the time it's all said and done. Taiwan looks to be in the line of fire, with mainland China there after. Although Usagi has been bouncing around the last few days as it moves westward for the most part.





Utor's peak strength wasn't recorded because the intensity updates didn't occur during the time it reached it. I believe at one point Utor's Dvorak number indicated a strength of 161kts, although it only stayed like that briefly before it started an eyewall replacement cycle.

Hopefully Usagi won't cause much damage or take any lives, but considering it's going to effect Tawain and China as a strong system, and the Phillipes will be affected by its outer rains/winds, it might become the deadliest and costliest storm so far.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 978
1386. FunnelVortex
12:33 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1384. weatherman994:
So is 95L still expected to be an impact in the Gulf.


Looks more like it will be another piece of disorganized garbage.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1385. FunnelVortex
12:32 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1379. SLU:


2015 ... next year will likely be an El Nino bust.


An El Ninio would still be better than this.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1384. weatherman994
12:32 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
So is 95L still expected to be an impact in the Gulf.
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
1383. Tropicsweatherpr
12:29 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1379. SLU:


2015 ... next year will likely be an El Nino bust.


Well,that is if El Nino shows up because if in 14 it doesn.t ,then it would be in 16.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14568
1382. LAbonbon
12:29 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1368. ILwthrfan:
Last 50 days (7 weeks) Total Precipitation 0.20" during the month of August and through today of September.





It's worse here year locally than it was all of last season.


What part of IL are you in? Looks like part of IL will be getting some rain in the immediate future. Probably not enough, though...



Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1381. Xyrus2000
12:29 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1321. HimacaneBrees:
Too many hurricanes - GW to blame


Nobody said that.

Lack of hurricanes - GW to blame


No one said that either, however that is the eventual expected result by the end of the century.

Ah well, at least it's not being blamed on the President.


Depends on your source of news. Certain organizations blame the president for everything, even for things that don't exist. :)
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
1380. Tropicsweatherpr
12:22 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1372. ILwthrfan:
Usagi easily this year's most intense storm, or will be by the time it's all said and done. Taiwan looks to be in the line of fire, with mainland China there after. Although Usagi has been bouncing around the last few days as it moves westward for the most part.





The heavy populated city of Hong Kong is in the track and if no deviation occurs it may cause big problems there.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14568
1379. SLU
12:22 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1370. Tropicsweatherpr:
Saved loop of SuperTyphoon Usagi. When will the Atlantic have one of these again?

Link


2015 ... next year will likely be an El Nino bust.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
1378. ncstorm
12:22 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
1377. ncstorm
12:20 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
1376. FunnelVortex
12:20 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Latest HWRF run says... BOC TRASH!

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1375. LAbonbon
12:19 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1366. Neapolitan:
So the Naples forecast is for hot and humid with day-long overcast, and a chance of passing showers at night? Gee. I feel so lucky... ;-)


NOW the name becomes clear! I sort of assumed you were showing family pride, and that your family originated in Napoli...

That's what I get for drawing conclusions from handles :)
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1374. Naga5000
12:18 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Little bit of a change with the Melbourne discussion regarding the Gulf.
"Sun-Wed...uncertainty/low confidence continues in this period with medium range models showing subtle differences. The previously mentioned shortwave trough will send energy across the Florida Peninsula sun/Mon. The frontal boundary over the deep south will sag
slowly into the peninsula becoming quasi-stationary through much of this time allowing for very deep tropical moisture to pool across the area into the middle of next week. Timing...strength and exact placement of surface/upper air features remains inconsistent at this
time. Higher confidence exists in that rain chances will be elevated from normal during this time. The potential for heavy rainfall across east central Florida will exist. This additional moisture may keep conditions cloudy and afternoon highs below what is presently
forecast. Overnight lows should remain mild and above climatology.

With potential tropical development over the Bay of Campeche will continue to watch for low pressure development over the western Gulf in vicinity of the decaying frontal boundary."
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3625
1373. FunnelVortex
12:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1370. Tropicsweatherpr:
Saved loop of SuperTyphoon Usagi. When will the Atlantic have one of these again?

Link


Not this year.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1372. ILwthrfan
12:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Usagi easily this year's most intense storm, or will be by the time it's all said and done. Taiwan looks to be in the line of fire, with mainland China there after. Although Usagi has been bouncing around the last few days as it moves westward for the most part.



Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
1371. Doss2k
12:16 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Well Usagi sure has given us a nice looking storm at least. Hopefully it will drop some of its strength before making landfall though.
Member Since: August 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 70
1370. Tropicsweatherpr
12:15 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Saved loop of SuperTyphoon Usagi. When will the Atlantic have one of these again?

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14568
1369. ncstorm
12:14 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
NWS, Wilmington, NC seems a little concerned about what could happen, very lengthy discussion

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT A PERIOD OF VERY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SUN-TUE.

PERIOD STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN CWA. THE
EXACT PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION...BECAUSE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT...POSSIBLY KEEPING IT
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTHEAST. NO MATTER HOW FAR THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES...SURFACE CONVERGENCE INTO A COLUMN WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY...AND HIGH-CHC POP
REMAINS...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THEREAFTER THE EXTENDED IS...TO BE BLUNT...A MESS. TROPICAL MOISTURE
ORGANIZING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS WKND WILL POSSIBLY BECOME THE
NEXT NAMED SYSTEM.
..AND IS THEN PROGGED TO MEANDER IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY THAT DIVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL CAPTURE THIS MOISTURE AND SLING IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS BASICALLY NO AGREEMENT IN
TIMING...STRENGTH...OR PLACEMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH ITS EVOLUTION...THUS PROVIDING LITTLE INSIGHT/HELP TO THE
FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS A SINGLE CONSOLIDATED LOW TRACKING EAST OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. THE
ENSEMBLES DO NOT PROVIDE A LOT OF HELP EITHER. THIS CREATES LOWERED
CONFIDENCE...BUT WE CAN GLEAN A FEW DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEK FROM WHAT
IS AVAILABLE...AND ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE EXCESSIVE TO DISCUSS DETAILS
ON D5/D6 IN A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BELIEVE IT IS IMPORTANT TO
EXPLAIN WHY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...AND COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE GOM...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL WILL IMPINGE UPON THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE COAST TAPPING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WE WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER...PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ONLY TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES...ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. THE 700MB
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ALMOST OVERHEAD...NOT IDEAL FOR AN OPEN GULF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHILE A 100KT 200MB JET STREAK DEVELOPS DUE
NORTH OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS POINT TO JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST. THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT THE BEST RAINFALL WOULD BE FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...OVER THE OCEAN...SUPPORTING THE ECMWF TRACK. HOWEVER...THE
NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) IS FORECAST TO BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN AND HENCE A SLOWER/FURTHER WEST LOW
CENTER. AN ADDITIONAL CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS IF THE
SYSTEM IN THE GOM/BAY OF CAMPECHE DEVELOPS INTO A STRONGER
TROPICAL SYSTEM...CREATING A SECONDARY SUBSIDENT RIDGE ALOFT. THAT
WILL THROW ANOTHER "WRENCH" INTO THE FLOW...CAUSING AN EVEN MORE
COMPLEX PATTERN.


SO...WITH ALL THIS IN PLACE...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THAT
WET WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL VERY
UNSURE EXACTLY HOW SIGNIFICANT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE.
INHERITED FORECAST HAS MDT-CHC POP MONDAY...FALLING OFF INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP MONDAY AS-IS...BUT INCREASE POP TUESDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL SLOWER SYSTEM. HIGHEST POP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST WHERE PARAMETERS AND WPC SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR.

TEMPS SUN-TUE WILL BE INHIBITED BY CLOUDS...RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
GUSTY N/NE WINDS...SO EXPECT HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS JUST ABOVE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE
MID-WEEK...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPS REMAINING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
1368. ILwthrfan
12:13 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Last 50 days (7 weeks) Total Precipitation 0.20" during the month of August and through today of September.





It's worse here year locally than it was all of last season.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
1367. ncstorm
12:11 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
12z CMC









Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
1366. Neapolitan
12:09 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1358. GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THE NICER WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEA BOARD. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A
WEAKER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND
THUS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE BAROCLINIC SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...AND DRAWS
THE MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST.
REGARDLESS...SINCE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND KEEP IT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS MAY BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH NO FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY LIMITING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY
ACTUALLY FALL OVER THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AS SPEED/COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SETS UP. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT THIS AS
WELL. SO RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST IS UNCLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...BUT RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
So the Naples forecast is for hot and humid with day-long overcast, and a chance of passing showers at night? Gee. I feel so lucky... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13611
1365. Envoirment
12:09 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
In 60 hours, Usagi as gone from a 1002mb 30kt (35mph) depression to a 918mb, 140kt (160mph) Category 5 Super Typhoon. A decrease of 84mb in pressure and and increase of 110kts (125mph) in wind speed. Which is roughly a decrease of 1.4mb/hour and an increase of 1.8kts/hour (or 2.1mph/hour).
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 978
1364. ncstorm
11:58 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
lol..DOOM!!!!



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
1363. Envoirment
11:58 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
17W USAGI 130919 1200 18.2N 127.2E WPAC 140 918

Usagi is the strongest storm of the WPAC season so far and the deepest, beating Soulik and Utor's depth of 925mb. With winds at 140kts and more time to strengthen, Usagi could reach a peak of 150kts or more! Very impressive intensification. I thought it would be a low end cat 4 when I came back to check, but it's a very beautiful cat 5 instead!
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 978
1362. LAbonbon
11:57 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLY MORE NOCTURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
BEING NOTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAS THE RESULT OF A DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE AND THE CONTINUED
WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
DRAWS DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES
AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 2.25 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE ENDING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S. NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS.

IN THE TROPICS...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
GULF IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWLY TAKE THIS
SYSTEM WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD MEXICO. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A BAROCLINIC LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE IT EAST NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION. SO FAR...RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE NEW
ORLEANS TERMINALS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS LATER
TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
CONVECTION. 95

&&

.MARINE...
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND ROUGH SEAS THROUGH TODAY. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES BEING EXTENDED THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THIS BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA AND THE GRADIENT EASES...THOUGH THEY MAY STRENGTHEN AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SWELLS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ENHANCING WAVE HEIGHTS. WITH TIDES STILL RUNNING 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1361. WarEagle8
11:52 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1327. HimacaneBrees:



Yep. Also with the whole kernel corn put some sauteed onions, jalapenos, cheese, and some ground beef in with it. Makes for a fine meal.
Good morning LSU. Is there still a 70% chance of rain for the kickoff on Saturday night in Baton Rouge?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
1360. LargoFl
11:51 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1358. GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THE NICER WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEA BOARD. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A
WEAKER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND
THUS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE BAROCLINIC SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...AND DRAWS
THE MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST.
REGARDLESS...SINCE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND KEEP IT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS MAY BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH NO FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY LIMITING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY
ACTUALLY FALL OVER THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AS SPEED/COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SETS UP. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT THIS AS
WELL. SO RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST IS UNCLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...BUT RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
yeah so they are now thinking central florida for the heavy stuff..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
1359. SLU
11:51 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
That's right WPAC, show the Atlantic how to get it done.





Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
1358. GeoffreyWPB
11:49 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THE NICER WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEA BOARD. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A
WEAKER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND
THUS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE BAROCLINIC SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...AND DRAWS
THE MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST.
REGARDLESS...SINCE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND KEEP IT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS MAY BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH NO FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY LIMITING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY
ACTUALLY FALL OVER THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AS SPEED/COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SETS UP. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT THIS AS
WELL. SO RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST IS UNCLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...BUT RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
1357. WxLogic
11:48 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
Good Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5030
1356. LargoFl
11:46 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PROVIDE
POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5 INCHES POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF ROADS.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT FOR GULF FACING BEACHES
CONTINUING ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES FRIDAY ALSO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.


$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
1355. LargoFl
11:45 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1352. FtMyersgal:
Good morning from soggy Fort Myers FL. My 4 day rainfall total stands at 6.17" and more is expected today. And next week it will be worse... much worse
yes im afraid next week may make some records fall..we'll see.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995
1354. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:45 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
Holy crap.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
1353. Civicane49
11:45 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

...MANUEL MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 108.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1352. FtMyersgal
11:44 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
Good morning from soggy Fort Myers FL. My 4 day rainfall total stands at 6.17" and more is expected today. And next week it will be worse... much worse
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
1351. MRCYCLOGENESIS
11:43 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
Quoting 1346. LargoFl:
I just hope that ECMF model for the 30-35 mph winds doesnt happen..we get 6-8 inches of rain and get those winds..i worry about the tree's in that soaking wet ground....next week might get interesting around here.




Interesting meaning ugly!
Member Since: April 19, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
1350. JrWeathermanFL
11:43 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
I just realized we've had 2 storms form in the Caribbean, with only one other one spendidng time there (Chantal)
Only part of the Atlantic (out of the 3 main parts. GOM, Atl, Car.) to not have a hurricane...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2519
1349. LargoFl
11:42 AM GMT on September 19, 2013
Nam for sunday...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40995

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.