Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 989. indianrivguy:


big sugar interfered with that election, IMO, Al Gore won Florida.. and I did NOT vote for him.. jes saying...


Not a US Citizen, but I think it would have been a much better world than the one we live in today if Al Gore had been "selected" POTUS instead of GW Bush, because Bush didn't "win" that election IMO and I admire your frankness in acknowledging that you didn't vote for him, that says a lot about the kind of man your are IMO. BTW, glad to see you're feeling better!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7690
2013SEP19 010100 5.9 932.0 2.2 112.4 5.2 5.7 6.8 0.5T/hour ON FLG -29.06 -79.19 EYE/P -99 IR 81.5 17.09 -128.18 SPRL MTSAT2 27.8

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
997. vis0

Quoting 21. CycloneOz:
I will continue to bang the drum for the need of at least one professional, nautical chasing team for hurricanes at sea.

Even a small submarine with one surface support vessel (equipped with drones) could achieve AMAZING science.

Not to mention the entertainment value.

Who of us would not tune into a 24 broadcast of a hurricane at sea?

Imagine the video. Imagine the real-time storm data updates.

Petition James Cameron to finance this idea. Have pods dropped from planes near building TS. Pods with weighted pointy  undercarriages to break their fall into the ocean even if dropped from low altitudes to assure no ships air hit & as you stated equipment to measure everything including the kitchen sink(ing air). They can be ocean drones (OH NO more drones). Lasers to go through clouds picked up by satellite so we can create true visible (not infrared) sat imagery at night.
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1933 is a perfect example of 2 long track Cape-Verde Hurricanes impacting the CONUS. Remember the last one we had was 2008.

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Quoting 968. guygee:
That could have been the Boy King George in flames had Gore not been such a wimp ... just think it could have been the rematch of the new century in the 2004 election... instead we saw that Gore is a sell-out with no fire in his belly. He deserves all the ridicule he gets, even if for the wrong reasons. Signing off.
You do realize that Gore is related to Cheney, the Hapsburgs, Bush, Romney, and Obama? Quite the coincidence ehh? Lemmings understand history and politics just as well as they do weather phenomena, but they all rush off the cliff when the conditions are right. Hard lessons for an unfair world.
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Quoting 981. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nope, not me. Take a look at storm tracks from 1995-2003. With the exception of the strong El-Nino year of 1997, each of those seasons featured multiple 2 strikes on the CONUS. The 1930s and 1950s saw impacts from long track Cape-Verde systems. I know it is climatolgically favored, but going 5 years without a long track Cape-Verde hurricane hitting the CONUS is striking as well as the fact that FL. hasn't been hit by a hurricane since 2006. Now tell me that is not striking to you?

Sure it's surprising given the past two decades, but there isn't exactly a rule that says at least one hurricane has to hit the state every X years. There have been longer periods in history when Florida went without a hurricane strike.
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Quoting 981. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nope, not me. Take a look at storm tracks from 1995-2003. With the exception of the strong El-Nino year of 1997, each of those seasons featured multiple 2+ strikes on the CONUS. The 1930s and 1950s saw impacts from long track Cape-Verde systems. I know it is climatolgically favored, but going 5 years without a long track Cape-Verde hurricane hitting the CONUS is striking as well as the fact that FL. hasn't been hit by a hurricane since 2006. Now tell me that is not striking to you?


Shh - you'll wake the hurricane gods back up. Actually from the late 1960's until the 1990's no hurricanes of any significance hit South Florida - so going this long is not necessarily odd.
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GMZ001-190900-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
455 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013


.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 22N94W ON THU...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THEN MEANDER NEAR 23N95W ON FRI AND SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF ON FRI NIGHT REACHING A POSITION FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE SW GULF ON SAT MERGING WITH THE LOW. THE
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW
GULF ON SUN...THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E ALONG
23N ON SUN REACHING NEAR 23N93W ON MON.

Gulf of Mexico Offshore Forecast Synopsis
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Quoting 976. scott39:
When you get that high end Cat3 or low four with sustained winds of 110 mph 30 miles inland for 8 hours and 200+ tornadoes with the sound of freight trains over your house.....Then you will know what living on the edge is all about my friend :) choo choo!


Ever see a location far inland where straight line winds have snapped every single tree in an area in half? Not quite as frightening as neighborhoods where the trees have been twisted/stripped by tornadoes, but eerie none the less.
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My thoughts and best wishes are with all those in Mexico and Colorado, what a devastation,turned off my TV , just could look at it anymore, if anyone thinks this is a bust season, just ask the Mexicans who are affected!
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Quoting 968. guygee:
That could have been the Boy King George in flames had Gore not been such a wimp ... just think it could have been the rematch of the new century in the 2004 election... instead we saw that Gore is a sell-out with no fire in his belly. He deserves all the ridicule he gets, even if for the wrong reasons. Signing off.


big sugar interfered with that election, IMO, Al Gore won Florida.. and I did NOT vote for him.. jes saying...
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Quoting 982. stormpetrol:
Time to upgrade 95L to a TD , I think.




Why?
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Quoting 975. cajunweathergirl:
I live in SwLa and went through Rita almost 8yrs ago, My question is do we need to keep an eye on possible Jerry? Local news is not really concerned???



95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4"

from Docs header
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Quoting 969. Astrometeor:




I was thinking the same exact thing. You know what they say, great minds think alike.

;)


LOL - what I like about you, is your endearing sense of humility ;)
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Quoting 982. stormpetrol:
Time to upgrade 95L to a TD , I think.
Really, why so soon.
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Hello weather Fans glad to be back, formerly 'hurricane tracker'. 95L Structure coming together nicely this evening as viewed on most satellite images. Still needing much more drought busting rains here in Texas. The heat and droughts have been relentless the past three Summers. Homes shifting, foundations and walls cracking. I have received a total 8.5" of rain at my locale (west central Corpus Christi) since, and how our local mets call it "the tropics opened up" in the last ten days. And, soon after these recent rains my home has begun to settle back to norm some. ...come on 95L.
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Quoting 979. Hurricane1956:
If I may ask a question please.What we can expect from this system here in South Florida over the weekend and into next week,our channel 4 Met,said last night that he thinks that apart from what ever become of 95L,he thinks that a low or Sub-tropical low might form West of South Florida,and to expect a lot of rain for this are starting Sunday.Any thoughts?.


LOL - if you read back in the blog, this has been of considerable debate. Dr. JM above states that a non-tropical low will form along a front, potentially impacting the SE.

Listen to what the local mets say, as they have more up to date information.
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Time to upgrade 95L to a TD , I think.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7690
Quoting 734. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Troughing over the East is the climatologically-favored pattern. Out to sea is the climatologically-favored track, at least for systems east of 60W. The past 3 years have been nothing new. We've just seen so many tropical cyclones...70 since the start of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season...that it appears as if things have changed. Less than ideal conditions close to home have prevented us from getting big hurricane strikes there.

Everybody was spoiled by the seasons of 2004 and 2005.
Nope, not me. Take a look at storm tracks from 1995-2003. With the exception of the strong El-Nino year of 1997, each of those seasons featured multiple 2+ strikes on the CONUS. The 1930s and 1950s saw impacts from long track Cape-Verde systems. I know it is climatolgically favored, but going 5 years without a long track Cape-Verde hurricane hitting the CONUS is striking as well as the fact that FL. hasn't been hit by a hurricane since 2006. Now tell me that is not striking to you?
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Quoting 975. cajunweathergirl:
I live in SwLa and went through Rita almost 8yrs ago, My question is do we need to keep an eye on possible Jerry? Local news is not really concerned???


Yes keep an eye on it, but there is no need to be concerned immediately.

But definitely keep tuned in through the weekend to see what happens.
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If I may ask a question please.What we can expect from this system here in South Florida over the weekend and into next week,our channel 4 Met,said last night that he thinks that apart from what ever become of 95L,he thinks that a low or Sub-tropical low might form West of South Florida,and to expect a lot of rain for this are starting Sunday.Any thoughts?.
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It's one thing if we had an El Nino, below average Atlantic SST, then yes, I would have expected for below average activity and that would not get me as irritated. But this season had a lot of favorable characteristics handed to it on a silver platter.
Quoting 964. TylerStanfield:

Actually, though you could argue its not normal, the season has followed at about average activity for the Atlantic Basin, though Hurricanes are below average, this season actually is normal... you may want to rephrase your comment.

People can't assume that were going to see hurricane seasons like 2004, 2005, or 2010 every year, even if were in a "Active Period", lulls in between these active years are not something foreign, they just don't happen in a predictable way sometimes, this year is a good example of that.
Expectations were set a little too high this year, and 2013 showed everyone, including me, that we can predict and put so much information into a forecast for it to blow up in your face.
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977. IKE

Quoting sporteguy03:

Glad I did not go on my Mexican vacation to Acapulco this summer.
Exactly.
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Quoting 928. KoritheMan:


I severely underestimated Gustav, which was a high end Category 1/low end Category 2 even as far inland as where I am. Wasn't expecting they could be that bad.

I'd definitely do it again, but it did give me some respect for nature's fury.

The "it's only a Category 2" argument doesn't really held up so well for me anymore.
When you get that high end Cat3 or low four with sustained winds of 110 mph 30 miles inland for 8 hours and 200+ tornadoes with the sound of freight trains over your house.....Then you will know what living on the edge is all about my friend :) choo choo!
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I live in SwLa and went through Rita almost 8yrs ago, My question is do we need to keep an eye on possible Jerry? Local news is not really concerned???
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Quoting 955. MiamiHurricanes09:
Usagi remains at 90kts/956mb.

WP, 17, 2013091900, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1281E, 90, 956, XX, 34, NEQ, 85, 85, 85, 85, 1003, 320, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 260, 6, USAGI, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP172013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,


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Quoting 961. scott39:
Looks like its ingested dry air.

Maybe a little. It should be relatively easy to mix out in the morning, however. This is especially true since wind shear has lessened. It's a lot harder to get dry air entrained into a circulation when upper-level winds are favorable.
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That's interesting! What journey were you sent on(university-wise)?
Quoting 905. Doppler22:
10 Years ago today, my life changed. The monster in the picture below awed me and started my passion for weather. Even though I am sad that she took lives away, she sent mine on a journey.

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Quoting 948. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good evening

I just posted a blog on the Hurricane Chart and Hurricane Manuel... take a look at your numbers, see where you stand to the current activity.

Im not making changes btw...


LOL. the odds of anyone winning anything are at an all time low xD
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Quoting 937. IKE:
That's pretty much all I need to look at to follow 95L....Sorry for Mexico's flooding.....






Glad I did not go on my Mexican vacation to Acapulco this summer.
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Quoting 963. daddyjames:
BTW - sure looks as if Manuel is about to make landfall.



Quoting 962. Tornado6042008X:
Do my eyes deceive me or is Manuel veering NNE right now?


I was thinking the same exact thing. You know what they say, great minds think alike.

;)
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Quoting 875. CaneHunter031472:

Someone quick, put this fire out... FOR GOOD!!
That could have been the Boy King George in flames had Gore not been such a wimp ... just think it could have been the rematch of the new century in the 2004 election... instead we saw that Gore is a sell-out with no fire in his belly. He deserves all the ridicule he gets, even if for the wrong reasons. Signing off.
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Quoting 952. Tazmanian:



lol we all busted are hurricane forcast


Mine has yet to bust...Woot!
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Quoting 937. IKE:
That's pretty much all I need to look at to follow 95L....Sorry for Mexico's flooding.....





Sorry for mexicos flooding also. Those models show 95L trapped.
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Quoting 950. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


I have a month in the blog. and the avatar has a 3 weeks.

It was when I first joined, Most of early 2012 we had the same avatar
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Quoting 931. JrWeathermanFL:
Can we get a normal season??

2009-El Nino
2010-Pretty good
2011-8 straight TS
2012-Nothing stronger than 115mph Cat. 3
2013-Do I even have to explain :P

Actually, though you could argue its not normal, the season has followed at about average activity for the Atlantic Basin, though Hurricanes are below average, this season actually is normal... you may want to rephrase your comment.

People can't assume that were going to see hurricane seasons like 2004, 2005, or 2010 every year, even if were in a "Active Period", lulls in between these active years are not something foreign, they just don't happen in a predictable way sometimes, this year is a good example of that.
Expectations were set a little too high this year, and 2013 showed everyone, including me, that we can predict and put so much information into a forecast for it to blow up in your face.
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BTW - sure looks as if Manuel is about to make landfall.

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Do my eyes deceive me or is Manuel veering NNE right now?
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Quoting 951. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Even though 95L has little deep convection, it's showing off phenomenal outflow in three out of four quadrants. It's fair in the southwest quadrant.

Diurnal maximum should push this to tropical depression status.
Looks like its ingested dry air.
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.
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corpus christi resident here, what might 95L mean for us
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Quoting 762. opal92nwf:
LOL

Gotta love them Jumbo Andrea Shrimp.
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Usagi remains at 90kts/956mb.

WP, 17, 2013091900, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1281E, 90, 956, XX, 34, NEQ, 85, 85, 85, 85, 1003, 320, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 260, 6, USAGI, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP172013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,

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Quoting 951. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Even though 95L has little deep convection, it's showing off phenomenal outflow in three out of four quadrants. It's fair in the southwest quadrant.

Diurnal maximum should push this to tropical depression status.


Plane that goes early in the morning may find a TD or maybe TS Jerry.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14052
Quoting 952. Tazmanian:



lol we all busted are hurricane forcast


not so fast...
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Quoting 948. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good evening

I just posted a blog on the Hurricane Chart and Hurricane Manuel... take a look at your numbers, see where you stand to the current activity.

Im not making changes btw...




lol we all busted are hurricane forcast
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Even though 95L has little deep convection, it's showing off phenomenal outflow in three out of four quadrants. It's fair in the southwest quadrant.

Diurnal maximum should push this to tropical depression status.
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Quoting 944. Doppler22:


Recuerdo que tú y yo solía tener el mismo avatar XD


I have a month in the blog. and the avatar has a 3 weeks.
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Quoting 939. BahaHurican:
Todally.... I commented about it earlier when u were talking about the anniversary.
Oh...true:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.