Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

Share this Blog
65
+

Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1049 - 999

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

Quoting 1044. ColoradoBob1:
African Dust Storms in Our Air: Dust Storms in Africa Affect U.S. and the Caribbean's Air Quality



"Dust activity has been very intense this year and sea surface temperatures are unusually low," Prospero says. "These may have been contributing factors to the unusually weak hurricane season this year."


Link

Both of those statements are false. :\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Manuel wasn't content with its Round 1 performance, unfortunately. Eyewall just offshore. Question is, will it continue heading inland, or resume its NW motion and slowly churn its way up the coast?


Rough night ahead for areas near Guasave.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1047. hydrus
Quoting 1026. daddyjames:


As for Agnes

"Though Agnes made landfall as a hurricane, no reports of hurricane force winds exists"

Most of the damage in Florida was a result of tornados spawned by the storm. Not necessarily unusual, but these were generally far removed from the landfalling location.
Agnes did a lot of damage on the west coast of Florida. It is unusual, but much of it went unreported.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1046. scott39
Tracking these complex TCs is becoming too much like work. Lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 955. MiamiHurricanes09:
Usagi remains at 90kts/956mb.

WP, 17, 2013091900, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1281E, 90, 956, XX, 34, NEQ, 85, 85, 85, 85, 1003, 320, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 260, 6, USAGI, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP172013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,


I think Usagi is much stronger than that. It might even be approaching category 4 intensity, based on the extremely impressive microwave image.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:


M-D-G rain magnet doesn't take a break. And doesn't give a chance to "the others".
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6429
1042. scott39
Quoting 1036. KoritheMan:


hahaha

I'd be gone before I'd voluntarily experience something like that.
Wise choice
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1041. dolig


lets call the crystal ball GFOREX :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1040. will40
Quoting 1038. FOREX:


And not coming down to the gulf coast?


yes it comes from the Gulf Coast. what it is showing is a dif part of 95L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1035. Astrometeor:


True, some of us (me included) still believe that Beryl could've/should've been labeled as a Cat 1 at landfall.


I believe it was briefly a hurricane at or near landfall.

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1038. FOREX
Quoting 1032. will40:


what GFS is showing is the cut off front going north


And not coming down to the gulf coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1037. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1027. will40 2:14 AM GMT on September 19, 2013 +0




Quoting 1025. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



the 00Z run will be interesting indeed


95 appears to be a semi quasi stationary enity that feeds the tropical moisture ne ward towards sw tropical atlantic that will dev a feature off mid atlantic states with a reinforcing strong front as it rolls off advancing and absorbing whatever it is on the coast at the last few days of sept ring out may not be what we expect but interesting none the less

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 976. scott39:
When you get that high end Cat3 or low four with sustained winds of 110 mph 30 miles inland for 8 hours and 200 tornadoes with the sound of freight trains over your house.....Then you will know what living on the edge is all about my friend :) choo choo!


hahaha

I'd be gone before I'd voluntarily experience something like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1034. FunnelVortex:


Not much difference between a 70 MPH TS and a low end Cat 1.


True, some of us (me included) still believe that Beryl could've/should've been labeled as a Cat 1 at landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1010. Astrometeor:


Beryl was a TS at landfall.


Not much difference between a 70 MPH TS and a low end Cat 1.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 1012. Tazmanian:
how would you like two walk up two this

Link


That would be more effective than my alarm clock is in the morning . . .
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
1032. will40
Quoting 1030. FOREX:


I'm thinking 95L is done. Mexican landfall as a tropical depression in a 4 days. No crystal ball, just gut feelings.


what GFS is showing is the cut off front going north
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Weather Prediction Center says 95L will remain a separate entity from the front through day 7.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1030. FOREX
Quoting 1027. will40:


the 00Z run will be interesting indeed


I'm thinking 95L is done. Mexican landfall as a tropical depression in a 4 days. No crystal ball, just gut feelings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1021. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I guess what I was trying to say was FL. in general taking a direct hit by a hurricane, last one was Ernesto in 2006.


Yes, that I agree.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
1028. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1027. will40:


the 00Z run will be interesting indeed
yes we have too see
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1027. will40
Quoting 1025. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


the 00Z run will be interesting indeed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1008. GTstormChaserCaleb:
1960 had Donna, 1966 had Alma and Inez, 1968 Hurricane Gladys, 1973 Agnes, 1975 Eloise, 1979 David, 1985 Kate and Elena, 1987 Floyd, 1992 Andrew. Most is 6 years. So something has to give here eventually.


As for Agnes

"Though Agnes made landfall as a hurricane, no reports of hurricane force winds exists"

Most of the damage in Florida was a result of tornados spawned by the storm. Not necessarily unusual, but these were generally far removed from the landfalling location.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
1025. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1005. MiamiHurricanes09:
ADT couldn't even position the circulation within the CDO. Just awful.



Is that just a mistake or is really that bad of a positioning?? Plain sad if it is not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1023. Pallis
Quoting 994. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure it's surprising given the past two decades, but there isn't exactly a rule that says at least one hurricane should hit the state every X years.

Exactly. It is weather, although there is such a thing as due time. Even I admit it as a matter of statistics, and Florida is in the cross hairs by accumulation of hydrostatic aggregation passed on throughout these recent years without cause for concern. We could go 100 years without a major Hurricane, but the most likely scenario is one within the next 5 years starting now(or last year if you prefer). Who shall predict it? Neither the computer or the meteorologist can predict it, because neither have the necessary input to come up with the solution. Mother nature ya'll. Heads up!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 931. JrWeathermanFL:
Can we get a normal season??

2009-El Nino
2010-Pretty good
2011-8 straight TS
2012-Nothing stronger than 115mph Cat. 3
2013-Do I even have to explain :P


Do you mean nothing stronger than a 85MPH CAT 1 lol

2013 lalala lalaa BUST just BUST (except for the BOC, of course... )
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6429
Quoting 1019. daddyjames:


David barely brushed the coast, Kate & Elena (1985), Floyd 1987 did very little damage.

I did say since the late 60's and "of any significance". Really, one of the reasons that Andrew is remembered was that it was an extremely harsh wake-up call!

Everyone, except for old-timers, had forgotten what a hurricane could do. It was a 20 year-long span that SoFl was significantly impacted by a landfalling hurricane.

I was there.
I guess what I was trying to say was FL. in general taking a direct hit by a hurricane, last one was Ernesto in 2006.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1020. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


Mine has yet to bust...Woot!

Astro, you, me, and a few others were among the minority that were downcasters so far this season. I think I'll be close with my guess about 12 named storms, but it appears I'm going to be way off on my 8 hurricanes. I may even make it with the 3 majors, but I'm quite surprised with the lack of hurricanes at all this year. I thought the total storms would be below average but also thought that most storms that got named would be Humberto/Fernand types. They would from either in the central Atlantic or the BOC,because that's where the best instability and leastr affect from SAL would be. I thought the total numbers would be low because the SAL wouldn't slack off until mid-August and the Texas Death Ridge would keep down instability in the Gulf. I didn't realize that the effects of the ridge and the long non-tropical rainy season in the Gulf would stabilize things until September, and that we'd still have the SAL and dry air even now. I knew it would be a strange season, but not quite this strange. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1008. GTstormChaserCaleb:
1960 had Donna, 1966 had Alma and Inez, 1968 Hurricane Gladys, 1973 Agnes, 1975 Eloise, 1979 David, 1985 Kate and Elena, 1987 Floyd, 1992 Andrew. Most is 6 years. So something has to give here eventually.


David barely brushed the coast, Kate & Elena (1985), Floyd 1987 did very little damage.

I did say since the late 60's and "of any significance". Really, one of the reasons that Andrew is remembered was that it was an extremely harsh wake-up call!

Everyone, except for old-timers, had forgotten what a hurricane could do. It was a 20 year-long span that SoFl was significantly impacted by a landfalling hurricane.

I was there.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
20130919.0115.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.09LHUMBERTO.30kts-1009mb-321N-435W.100pc.jpg
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1014. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sure I guess if you want to get eaten.



i gus he was tired and wanted a free night stay lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1010. Astrometeor:


Beryl was a TS at landfall.


i knew the guy on the radio sounded drunk when he got to the third round of yelling "CAT ONE! CAT ONE!" thats what i get for listening to the college station lol
still though, was that changed post season? NOPE
EDIT: thx caleb :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1012. Tazmanian:
how would you like two walk up two this

Link
Sure I guess if you want to get eaten.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
how would you like two walk up two this

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1006. darbyderp:


wasn't beryl a cat 1 at landfall last year? or was that the year before...
Beryl was a 70 mph. tropical storm at peak intensity that hit near Jacksonville, FL. in 2012.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1006. darbyderp:


wasn't beryl a cat 1 at landfall last year? or was that the year before...


Beryl was a TS at landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 993. daddyjames:


Shh - you'll wake the hurricane gods back up. Actually from the late 1960's until the 1990's no hurricanes of any significance hit South Florida - so going this long is not necessarily odd.
1960 had Donna, 1966 had Alma and Inez, 1968 Hurricane Gladys, 1973 Agnes, 1975 Eloise, 1979 David, 1985 Kate and Elena, 1987 Floyd, 1992 Andrew. Most is 6 years. So something has to give here eventually.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 981. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nope, not me. Take a look at storm tracks from 1995-2003. With the exception of the strong El-Nino year of 1997, each of those seasons featured multiple 2+ strikes on the CONUS. The 1930s and 1950s saw impacts from long track Cape-Verde systems. I know it is climatolgically favored, but going 5 years without a long track Cape-Verde hurricane hitting the CONUS is striking as well as the fact that FL. hasn't been hit by a hurricane since 2006. Now tell me that is not striking to you?


wasn't beryl a cat 1 at landfall last year? or was that the year before...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ADT couldn't even position the circulation within the CDO. Just awful.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 979. Hurricane1956:
If I may ask a question please.What we can expect from this system here in South Florida over the weekend and into next week,our channel 4 Met,said last night that he thinks that apart from what ever become of 95L,he thinks that a low or Sub-tropical low might form West of South Florida,and to expect a lot of rain for this are starting Sunday.Any thoughts?.
Sounds close. We have been getting an inch plus a day here for a while already. I noticed this morning that the ground is oozing water into the gutters. It is soggy!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 989. indianrivguy:


big sugar interfered with that election, IMO, Al Gore won Florida.. and I did NOT vote for him.. jes saying...


it would be interesting to see what is going on in that parallel universe where Gore did win . . . makes you wonder about what might been.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 995. Pallis:
You do realize that Gore is related to Cheney, the Hapsburgs, Bush, Romney, and Obama? Quite the coincidence ehh? Lemmings understand history and politics just as well as they do weather phenomena, but they all rush off the cliff when the conditions are right. Hard lessons for an unfair world.


And they're all related to....(drum roll, please)...Kevin Bacon! Six degrees of separation, my friend.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 962. Tornado6042008X:
Do my eyes deceive me or is Manuel veering NNE right now?
Quoting 969. Astrometeor:




I was thinking the same exact thing. You know what they say, great minds think alike.

;)


The fact that Manuel is elongated from NE to SW makes it seem like the front dropping in may already be influencing its direction.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting 989. indianrivguy:


big sugar interfered with that election, IMO, Al Gore won Florida.. and I did NOT vote for him.. jes saying...


Not a US Citizen, but I think it would have been a much better world than the one we live in today if Al Gore had been "selected" POTUS instead of GW Bush, because Bush didn't "win" that election IMO and I admire your frankness in acknowledging that you didn't vote for him, that says a lot about the kind of man your are IMO. BTW, glad to see you're feeling better!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1049 - 999

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.