Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1090. Civicane49:
HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED.

MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3
KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY
DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER
WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF
WEAKENING.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE
STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN
FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Guess he has not officially made landfall yet.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
If nothing becomes of 95L, or if it goes into Mexico instead of the US, I wonder how many weather modification proponents this will bring out?

"It looked like a significant threat to the US economy, so the government went ahead and stopped it."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Humberto dissappoint me even though I never thought he would regain hurricane strength many were skeptical of it and even thought he would become a cat 2 or 1 I was even in favor of it because we haven`t had anything stronger than a cat 1.That is why I say to not take models to seriously or they can dissappoint you.
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Quoting 1072. BahaHurican:
We had a 25 year period here where the worst we saw was a low end cat 1.... David. Since about 97 we've been hit by something almost every year, and it's gotten to be a strange happening if we don't get at least one school disruption in September [which is cool 4 the kids, but not so much for the rest of us who still have to go to work].



Yeah - that is what I was trying to say.

It was very quiet in our neck of the woods for a long time. Allowed SoFL to become what it is now - which maybe wasn't such a good thing.

When i was a kid, my folks used to "humor" me by putting up with my talk of "what could happen" and that we should get shutters (I must have been pretty annoying - still am ;)). Their house is 9 miles inland, and far enough from the coast to not worry.

After Andrew, that changed pretty quick. We were walking around thinking that "that wasn't so bad" - in Broward. Until the power came back, and we saw what happened down in South Dade. Dad, who worked for the Federal Gov at that time, was eventually mobilized to help down there. After seeing things - he decided shutters would be a very good thing.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Two reasons the Pacific has more cyclone activity than the Atlantic:1)Substantially more tepid water, particularly in the West Pacific 2)No SAL.
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1094. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



all the players
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

HUMBERTO IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE-IR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME STRETCHED FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. WHILE THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SOME TIME
OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR...THE POOR INITIAL
STRUCTURE WILL LIKELY PREVENT HUMBERTO FROM SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 24H...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AFTER
ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL WINDS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 010/8. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HUMBERTO TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATING
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72H. THE NHC PREDICTION WILL GO ALONG WITH
THE ABSORBED SCENARIO...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF
HUMBERTO OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH BEFORE THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 32.5N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 33.7N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 35.7N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 38.6N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 43.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

...HUMBERTO WEAKENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 43.4W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Humberto is now a depression, no significant strengthening expected.

11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18
Location: 32.5N 43.4W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 32.5N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 33.7N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 35.7N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 38.6N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 43.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z...ABSORBED
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED.

MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3
KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY
DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER
WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF
WEAKENING.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE
STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN
FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

...HUMBERTO WEAKENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 43.4W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1066: the c word isn't allowed on this blog. Follow the rules!
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 108.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 108.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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What a beast!
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Quoting 1082. weatherrx:
Great example of Wishcasting LOL are you kidding me the HWRF Model, I have a magic 8 ball that would do a better job of tropical predictions.


My 3 year old sister would do better...
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Quoting 1031. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Prediction Center says 95L will remain a separate entity from the front through day 7.



That would be a very dangerous situation, right?
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Quoting 136. Walshy:
Brad Panovich WCNC
The HWRF model has been very unreliable this season so far but it initialized pretty well today on #Invest95L over the Yucatan. It then develops it into a hurricane moving into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. There is some supports from the other models as well. All interests in the Gulf should pay attention to the weather over the next few days and into the weekend. #Jerry

Great example of Wishcasting LOL are you kidding me the HWRF Model, I have a magic 8 ball that would do a better job of tropical predictions.
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1081. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
I finished a blog about my adventures over the past few weekends so if you want to see the pictures I took of Western North Carolina, just click this link

l
l
l
l
\/

Bluestorm5's Blog
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Quoting 1069. allancalderini:
I just want a minimal ts of that.


To continue the chain of weaklings in the Jerry family?
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Quoting 1077. hydrus:
Once this thing percolates a while, it will regenerate farther north of the present center. .just me harmless opine.


Using a wee bit of yer fanciful language there, eh?
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1077. hydrus
Once this thing percolates a while, it will regenerate farther north of the present center. .just me harmless opine.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
Just joking around I know whats going around. Just have to see how it plays out.
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Quoting 1070. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The death toll is already at 80...now this:

@AP
BREAKING: Mexican official says at least 58 missing in landslide unleashed by storm.


Yikes.
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Quoting 1071. hydrus:
And flooding sux..I would much rather have wind damage any day than flooding.


I actually agree completely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Category 2 Jose was my favorite hurricane !!

It was moving very slowly...

It brought a prolonged period of heavy weather (4days)

Weather began to deteriorate well before the arrival of the core (24hours before...)

The arrival of the core has been VERY SPECTACULAR!!!! I will NEVER forget that BRIGHT ORANGE "ambiance" at sunset as the winds were approaching hurricane force with very heavy rains!

I will NEVER forget those crazy lightnings when the northern eyewall passed overhead! Jose is the ONLY hurricane with thunder and lightnings I experienced so far.

It brought Cat 2 hurricane force winds, with gusts to 120MPH

It brought 20 inches of rain!!

THAT'S WHAT A CALL AN INTERESTING STORM. More interesting the 2010 EARL...







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Quoting 993. daddyjames:


Shh - you'll wake the hurricane gods back up. Actually from the late 1960's until the 1990's no hurricanes of any significance hit South Florida - so going this long is not necessarily odd.
We had a 25 year period here where the worst we saw was a low end cat 1.... David. Since about 97 we've been hit by something almost every year, and it's gotten to be a strange happening if we don't get at least one school disruption in September [which is cool 4 the kids, but not so much for the rest of us who still have to go to work].

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1071. hydrus
Quoting 1051. Abacosurf:
Flooded grandmas house to the second floor in Wilkes Barre.
And flooding sux..I would much rather have wind damage any day than flooding.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
The death toll is already at 80...now this:

@AP
BREAKING: Mexican official says at least 58 missing in landslide unleashed by storm.
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Quoting 1067. KoritheMan:


"At least" is pretty strong wording. Nothing about the pattern supports even a marginal hurricane, primarily because the models show a non-tropical low forming along the front over the southern United States this weekend. The flow on the back side of that low will try to ingest cooler and drier air into the circulation, along with the potential for some northwesterly shear.
I just want a minimal ts of that.
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Quoting 1062. Abacosurf:
PA


Oops - yes in PA. My bad.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 1065. RGVtropicalWx13:
I see a strong ts out of 95L aleast. That u should agree lol


"At least" is pretty strong wording. Nothing about the pattern supports even a marginal hurricane, primarily because the models show a non-tropical low forming along the front over the southern United States this weekend. The flow on the back side of that low will try to ingest cooler and drier air into the circulation, along with the potential for some northwesterly shear.
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95L looks like crap hahah
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I see a strong ts out of 95L aleast. That u should agree lol
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Quoting 1052. KoritheMan:
Starting to have some doubts that 95L becomes anything stronger than a mid-range tropical storm, if even that. There has to be a reason the models are showing an elongated system that gradually gets wrung out by the front.

If it organizes quickly enough that could change, but this is a very tricky situation.
we going to get a new low on the cold front with rain in FL TO
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1063. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST September 19 2013
=====================================

Kamchatka Peninsula
At 0:00 AM UTC, Low, Former Man-yi (984 hPa) located at 60.0N 163.0E is reported as moving north northeast slowly

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression "23" (1000 hPa) located at 16.0N 105.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 14.0N 150.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
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Quoting 1055. daddyjames:


Yes, it did.

It was retired/remembered was for the flooding in Virginia and Maryland where the majority of damage was caused. I am not sure it would have been retired based upon Florida alone.

Not saying it wasn't bad. Just not significant in its impact on Florida.

PA
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1060. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1052. KoritheMan:
Starting to have some doubts that 95L becomes anything stronger than a mid-range tropical storm, if even that. There has to be a reason the models are showing an elongated system that gradually gets wrung out by the front.

If it organizes quickly enough that could change, but this is a very tricky situation.
timing timing timing

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
I know its been sort of a slow start.. still at or above average, but not quite what I thought at the start of the season.

What are the chances the jet stream takes a dip and training systems west.carrib./ yucatan, or even the boc.. start to move north and east into the gulf states and/or Florida?
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1058. hydrus
Quoting 1019. daddyjames:


David barely brushed the coast, Kate & Elena (1985), Floyd 1987 did very little damage.

I did say since the late 60's and "of any significance". Really, one of the reasons that Andrew is remembered was that it was an extremely harsh wake-up call!

Everyone, except for old-timers, had forgotten what a hurricane could do. It was a 20 year-long span that SoFl was significantly impacted by a landfalling hurricane.

I was there.
The only bad Florida hurricane I remember from the 1970,s was Eloise.
This weather satellite picture of Hurricane Eloise was taken on September 22, 1975 at 1700 UTC
img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/common s/8/82/Hurricane_Eloise_in_Gulf_on_S2ptember_22.jp g">

Eloise came ashore along the coast of northern Florida as a Category 3 storm producing winds of 90 mph (140 km/h) with gusts that reached 155 mph (249 km/h).[1] Sustained winds were likely higher, but due to the sparsity of recording stations, few official records exist. The winds in the area were reportedly the strongest of the century.[5] Hurricane-force winds occurred from Fort Walton Beach through Panama City. Along the coast, tides ran 12 to 16 feet (3.7 to 4.9 m) above normal, peaking at 18 feet (5.5 m). Hurricane Eloise spawned several tornadoes as it pressed inland.[1] In general, rainfall ranged from 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm); at the Eglin Air Force Base near Valparaiso, however, the hurricane dropped 14.9 inches (380 mm) of precipitation.[10] The heaviest rainfall was usually confined to northwest of the storm's track, and a number of locations to the east of Eloise's center picked up less than 1 inch (25 mm) of rain.[1]

Damage from the hurricane was widespread. Fort Walton Beach, where hundreds of structures were damaged or destroyed, was hit particularly hard. In some areas, the storm surge washed away buildings demolished by the strong winds. The winds cleared certain locations of trees and buried properties and roads under sand. Throughout northwest Florida, an estimated 8,000 people suffered storm-related losses, and 500 businesses were completely destroyed. An article in the Tallahassee Democrat reported that "Cottages, motels, restaurants, convenience stores and other beach businesses were strewn across the highway in a tangle of down power poles, lines and busted mains."[5] A 2,100-acre (850 ha) shrimp farm at Panama City, the first of its kind, was effectively lost. The storm destroyed the farm's prospective initial harvest, 1,500,000 pounds (680,000 kg) of shrimp enclosed in a system of nets and enclosures. The president of the company described the subsequent events as six months of extreme turmoil in an effort to recover, followed by a quick and steady rebound. By the spring of 1976, the company became confident in financial success and full recovery.[11][15]
Aerial view of the Florida Panhandle damage


The storm caused severe beach erosion in Bay County; approximately 801,000 cubic yards (612,000 m3) of sand was removed.[16] Storm-related changes in the coastal topography resulted in extensive structural damage in the Panama City Beach area. The most severe damage was concentrated in a 22 miles (35 km) area of the shore east of the hurricane's eye, and storm surge peaked in intensity for no more than a half hour according to preliminary estimates. Much of the resultant damage came as a result of foundation undermining, which was compared to that of the New England hurricane of 1938. Although Eloise was not abnormally strong, the geographicy setting and building standards in the area were blamed for the destruction of many homes and businesses.[17] Monetary losses from property damage in Panama City Beach alone totaled about $50 million.[18]

The first major storm to strike the region in 40 years, Hurricane Eloise did not directly kill anyone in the state of Florida.[19] However, four deaths of an indirect nature were attributed to the hurricane;[1] two of them were related to heart attacks. Numerous people sustained injuries, largely from broken glass or cleanup efforts. Overall property damage from the storm in Florida amounted to $150 million.[11] In the storm's aftermath, a study of the hurricane's effect on aquatic animals living in the swash zone (the immediate area where land and the ocean meet) of Panama City Beach was conducted.[18] The study concluded that compared to 11 consecutive months of data prior to the storm, the swash zone experienced a brief influx of animal species normally found offshore. However, the number decreased to near normal shortly thereafter.[18] Also along the shore, the hurricane dismantled or severely impaired several piers, including the total destruction of a 300 feet (91 m) extension of the Okaloosa Island Pier built just three years earlier and part of its original span. A fishing pier at St. Andrews State Park also suffered vast damage, along with another wooden pier at Mexico Beach and the M.B. Miller Pier at Panama City Beach, which lost its end section to the storm.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
Quoting 963. daddyjames:
BTW - sure looks as if Manuel is about to make landfall.

Manuel make landfall imo.
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Quoting 1050. Astrometeor:


Hmm...That gives me an idea.


I bet it does.
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Quoting 1047. hydrus:
Agnes did a lot of damage on the west coast of Florida. It is unusual, but much of it went unreported.


Yes, it did.

It was retired/remembered was for the flooding in Virginia and Maryland where the majority of damage was caused. I am not sure it would have been retired based upon Florida alone.

Not saying it wasn't bad. Just not significant in its impact on Florida.

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
1054. FOREX
Quoting 1052. KoritheMan:
Starting to have some doubts that 95L becomes anything stronger than a mid-range tropical storm, if even that. There has to be a reason the models are showing an elongated system that gradually gets wrung out by the front.

If it organizes quickly enough that could change, but this is a very tricky situation.


Agree completely.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
Starting to have some doubts that 95L becomes anything stronger than a mid-range tropical storm, if even that. There has to be a reason the models are showing an elongated system that gradually gets wrung out by the front.

If it organizes quickly enough that could change, but this is a very tricky situation.
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Quoting 1047. hydrus:
Agnes did a lot of damage on the west coast of Florida. It is unusual, but much of it went unreported.
Flooded grandmas house to the second floor in Wilkes Barre.
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Quoting 1036. KoritheMan:


hahaha

I'd be gone before I'd voluntarily experience something like that.


Hmm...That gives me an idea.
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Quoting 1044. ColoradoBob1:
African Dust Storms in Our Air: Dust Storms in Africa Affect U.S. and the Caribbean's Air Quality



"Dust activity has been very intense this year and sea surface temperatures are unusually low," Prospero says. "These may have been contributing factors to the unusually weak hurricane season this year."


Link

Both of those statements are false. :\
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.