Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:


But that was a year of recurves, right?

Right?!

R...ight?

:|

Eloise was a killer in Puerto Rico, one of the greatest catastrophes in our history....Personally touch since I lost my best friend.... very sad, indeed....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1145. CaribBoy:
Remembering those good old days lol

...JOSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 100 MPH
WINDS...

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GEORGES POUNDING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...

...LENNY WREAKING HAVOC ON ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...

...EYE OF LENNY OVER ST. BARTHS IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...

...DEBBY NEARING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THREATENS TO STRENGTHEN...

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 120 MPH WINDS...

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SQUALLS AND
HEAVY RAINS...

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


... Still hoping for some action in october and november of this year... LOL WHO KNOWS................ XD


I truly think your enthusiasm is even greater than mine. Kudos.
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95L has such a huge circulation that it'll take some time to get consolidated. That and the sheer screaming just to its north gives it no room to maneuver.

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Remembering those good old days lol

...JOSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 100 MPH
WINDS...

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GEORGES POUNDING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...

...LENNY WREAKING HAVOC ON ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...

...EYE OF LENNY OVER ST. BARTHS IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...

...DEBBY NEARING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THREATENS TO STRENGTHEN...

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 120 MPH WINDS...

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SQUALLS AND
HEAVY RAINS...

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


... Still hoping for some action in october and november of this year... LOL WHO KNOWS................ XD
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Quoting 1139. wxgeek723:
Humberto's regeneration has been somewhat of a disappointment.



Dude's got a bit of stage fright, doesn't he?
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Quoting 1125. wxgeek723:
I'm telling you guys if we reach November 29 without a significant the storm the blog will still be like "SEASON STILL NOT OVER ONE DAY LEFT THERE'S STILL HOPE FOR A STORM LOOK AT THE DECEMBER 1925 FLORIDA HURRICANE NO THIS SEASON CAN'T END LIKE THIS DOES NOT COMPUTE DOES NOT COMPUTE"

This is one of the funniest things I've heard from you.

Quoting 1127. opal92nwf:

Although at least in the short term, dry air really isn't overwhelming. I've seen developing tropical waves amidst dryer air. I think the best thing this system could do for the long term is become strong (like a trop storm) sooner which will both help it feel the influence of the trough and keep it from becoming torn apart or stretched out when the trough comes.

True. We'll just have to wait and see. The environment doesn't look terrible for the next 2-3 days. Should at least get a moderate tropical storm out of this.
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Quoting 1140. daddyjames:


Got tired of people asking what it was. Of course, this one has me wondering also.
it was the bottom of a turtle
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TWC also agrees on splitting into 2 lows and one hitting florida as NON TROPICAL

HAHA BUST SEASON CONTINUES HELLO!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 1135. KoritheMan:


I see you decided to abolish your disturbing, nightmare-inducing avatar in favor of a more peaceable one. :P


Got tired of people asking what it was. Of course, this one has me wondering also.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Humberto's regeneration has been somewhat of a disappointment.

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Quoting 1011. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Beryl was a 70 mph. tropical storm at peak intensity that hit near Jacksonville, FL. in 2012.


I drove right into that one. Stayed at Ponta Vedra Beach for 3 hours in 25-45 mph winds waiting for the worst to hit. It finally got dark and my better half told me it was time to go. So we start driving north along the main beach road toward Jax Beach, then the worst hit. It was pretty squally and the official Jax Beach observation of 46 mph sustained seems about like what I experienced. By the time we found a hotel room in Jax Beach, it was about 10 pm, and the winds were like 25-30 mph gusting 35 -40 mph. The eye lasted an hour or two but as soon as the center moved ashore the circulation started to disintegrate. By the time the "back half" "hit" all that was left was showers and winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph, maybe 35 mph at the highest. That was the best I had seen since my experience with Fay at Melbourne Beach in 2008.
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lol, It's the second Louisiana grown pineapple
Quoting 1135. KoritheMan:


I see you decided to abolish your disturbing, nightmare-inducing avatar in favor of a more peaceable one. :P

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1136. vis0
Quoting 114. redwagon:


There are quite a few of us coders in here, Centex, sar2401... do you have a blog?

I'm not one of those coders ...not as to physics.
Forgive me if these ideas have been posted just got in & am at 56K.

Don't think conventional sub.

How
about round on top (like the mini subs) to receive the least drag when
being used as a water drone. It'll be going against constant strong
winds.

A weight reversed longer pointy bottom/~undercarriage so the
weight of an upside down pyramid shape keeps the ball on top, no roll
over.

Hidden
curved rims can be deployed (raised from within ) though just
centimeters in height use them to deflect wind and micro-steer the
"PROTI". & save internal battery from being over used.

Already
named it PROTI? You'll think of something better but one needs a name to
start so one can focus ones questions instead of having to think of a
name as you go along in your discussions. In a few minutes i'm sure a
better name will pop up amongst the experts that will take this idea.

Proti from Proteus to Protius To PROTI, acronym for "Probe Receiving Operational Tropical Information" (Under Sea).

i first used this name in a weather board for The Weather Channel (1998/99) were i left 2 drawings.
 
The main drawing was for a device that can go into tornadoes &
survive by using curves in its design forcing the probe to go downwards
when the Tornado becomes stronger and in F4 & F5s the probe is
forced to (excuse the language) screw itself into the ground thus not
being flung around and destroying its valuable information it collected
that could not be sent due to the interfering with signals from being in winds of
over 180 mph.

The
2nd drawing was of a probe dropped on the
ocean to get readouts & create visible imagery at night instead of
relying on infrared which use damaging microwaves. Proti would use a
type of laser
that could beam up through the clouds and read by Satellites and
create visible images. The latter i called Proti but didn't explain it
any further as i asked if interested as to either idea just reply. No
one replies to my
ideas except to criticize the grammar which is okay as that's how i
separate those whom really care (they take the time to read the book)
from those that are in it for greed or for other negative reasons (they
just read the cover).

BTW
can't use my WxU mail am blocked from
doing 'cause an offer to download a weather app keeps popping up
when i try to use my WxU mail & no one has responded to my request
ticket so i'm  looking for another blog that fits my needs, so far
found one in China, but prefer a more human friendly country as to my
blogging.

If
one wishes try reading my other ideas/theories before they close (3
just closed this year) UNDERSTAND i post all sorts of theories &
ideas from a device i state can be used to influence nature as to
reverse diseases & influence weather to ideas i leave for women to
attract attention w/o showing too much skin while working in the field
of TV broadcasts (fashion ideas are what has given me the most money as
have shared 14 ideas with designers (Friends of my Sis, she went to The
School Of Art & Design, NYC), 8 of those ideas worked, 3 flopped
other 3 still being tinkered with, they think i'm a fashion genius as my styles place REAL TIME control in changing a "look" while still wearing the same outfit. Oh yeah i forgot its a site dedicated to trolling & close minded arguing ...i mean weather)
At *********** i'm AKAMRX
At ******** (a great photography site) i'm Senor Equis
At WxU (here) i'm vis0


Hope
it helps, would add more (as make sure its fog proof, add a short signal that imitates dolphin brain activity/sonar to prevent sharks from eating it)
but i figure by others i've written to here at WxU and other science
related media sites if i write more than a few paragraphs you'll need
Dramamine from going back n forth trying to make sense, though i
thought that's a low price to pay for tomorrows science/ideas i guess
most want new ideas to fit old technology so their brains can handle
it. With the latter way of thinking we'd have used an Edsel to launch
ourselves to the moon....3,2,1! CRANK IT! (add sound of Edsel back firing
here)

Sincerely
vis0 at wunderground
Gregorio OM  in Real life
,peace
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Quoting 1133. Funication:
What? Tropical Depression HUMBERTO, he'll come back!



I see you decided to abolish your disturbing, nightmare-inducing avatar in favor of a more peaceable one. :P
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Quoting 1132. KoritheMan:


Michigan gets hurricanes?


Duh

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What? Tropical Depression HUMBERTO, he'll come back!
Quoting 1094. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



all the players

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Quoting 1131. daddyjames:


True.

In that area FL, AL, MI should be counted as one - as impact generally affects all three.


Michigan gets hurricanes?
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Quoting 1126. PensacolaNative:
True, we were on the bad side though


True.

In that area FL, AL, MI should be counted as one - as impact generally affects all three.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732


44 mph wind gust in East End , now we getting hammered here in South Sound.
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Usagi is looking pretty well formed. The track forecast takes it between the islands and to the southern China coast.

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18z FIM-9 now that track would be something else.

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Quoting 1118. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Probably not. Even if the low itself isn't absorbed into the frontal boundary, it will experience wind shear and dry air in advance of, and following the passage of, the front. Its moisture will likely be robbed as well.

Although at least in the short term, dry air really isn't overwhelming. I've seen developing tropical waves amidst dryer air. I think the best thing this system could do for the long term is become strong (like a trop storm) sooner which will both help it feel the influence of the trough and keep it from becoming torn apart or stretched out when the trough comes.
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Quoting 1124. daddyjames:


Technically hat hit Alabama . . . ;)
True, we were on the bad side though
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I'm telling you guys if we reach November 29 without a significant the storm the blog will still be like "SEASON STILL NOT OVER ONE DAY LEFT THERE'S STILL HOPE FOR A STORM LOOK AT THE DECEMBER 1925 FLORIDA HURRICANE NO THIS SEASON CAN'T END LIKE THIS DOES NOT COMPUTE DOES NOT COMPUTE"
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Quoting 1121. PensacolaNative:
Hurricane Frederick 1979


Technically that hit Alabama . . . ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
1123. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON ODETTE
11:00 AM PhST September 19 2013
=================================================

"ODETTE" continues to move towards northern Luzon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Odette [USAGI] (967 hPa) located at 17.1N 128.2E or 610 km east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gustiness up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan
3. Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Apayao
2. Ilocos Norte
3. Abra
4. Kalinga
5. Isabela
6. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted against storm surges.

"ODETTE" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over MIMAROPA, western Visayas,Zambales and Bataan. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert against flash floods and landslides.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Occidental Mindoro and Palawan and over the eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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Quoting 1119. opal92nwf:

People forget about Eloise. I had never heard about it until looking at hurricane history info


But that was a year of recurves, right?

Right?!

R...ight?

:|

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Quoting 1119. opal92nwf:

People forget about Eloise. I had never heard about it until looking at hurricane history info
Hurricane Frederick 1979
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Quoting 1116. wxgeek723:
Jersey Shore boardwalk fire linked to wiring damage from Hurricane Sandy


I thought about that when I first heard about it but then I brushed it off. I guess I was right
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Quoting 1058. hydrus:
The only bad Florida hurricane I remember from the 1970,s was Eloise.
This weather satellite picture of Hurricane Eloise was taken on September 22, 1975 at 1700 UTC
img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/common s/8/82/Hurricane_Eloise_in_Gulf_on_S2ptember_22.jp g">

Eloise came ashore along the coast of northern Florida as a Category 3 storm producing winds of 90 mph (140 km/h) with gusts that reached 155 mph (249 km/h).[1] Sustained winds were likely higher, but due to the sparsity of recording stations, few official records exist. The winds in the area were reportedly the strongest of the century.[5] Hurricane-force winds occurred from Fort Walton Beach through Panama City. Along the coast, tides ran 12 to 16 feet (3.7 to 4.9 m) above normal, pe...tp:>

People forget about Eloise. I had never heard about it until looking at hurricane history info
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Quoting 1083. ChemPhysMath:


That would be a very dangerous situation, right?

Probably not. Even if the low itself isn't absorbed into the frontal boundary, it will experience wind shear and dry air in advance of, and following the passage of, the front. Its moisture will likely be robbed as well.
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Quoting 1111. hydrus:
Good evening Kori.


Hydrus!
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Quoting 1110. Astrometeor:


No, I don't particularly like hurricanes. Didn't start watching them until last year when I joined the blog. Katrina was a pathetic little thing when it passed over me, and so I didn't really take to hurricanes as well as I took to severe storms (which are obviously more common in TN than 'canes).


I see.

It's probably a geographical thing. I prefer hurricanes to severe weather, but it's probably because there's a hurricane here more than there is a tornado.

Strongly considering gearing my forecasts toward severe weather after the culmination of what we're calling a "season" here. I've been meaning to.
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1114. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
105 mph.

I call BS.



looks like PAGASA is going with...

967 hPa 39 m/s 75 knots

could be worst estimate of intensity
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That greater than u thought is just temporary lol
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1112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
1111. hydrus
Quoting 1078. KoritheMan:


Using a wee bit of yer fanciful language there, eh?
Good evening Kori.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
Quoting 1107. KoritheMan:


At least I provide forecasts. You don't. Why is that, Nathan? Scared you'll embarrass yourself?

What I thought.

gg no re


No, I don't particularly like hurricanes. Didn't start watching them until last year when I joined the blog. Katrina was a pathetic little thing when it passed over me, and so I didn't really take to hurricanes as well as I took to severe storms (which are obviously more common in TN than 'canes).
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105 mph.

I call BS.

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Quoting 1102. BahaHurican:
Yeah. Similar reaction here in Nassau. Ppple were like "Andrew was a breeze"... until they saw the impacts in Eleuthera. And as bad as Andrew was - we got low-end cat 2 winds at my location - New Providence was spared because of Andrew's small size and the fact that the eye passed sufficiently to our north.

We still haven't gotten one as bad as the 1929 storm for Nassau...


What was funny was I had a coworker - younger than me - from Iowa, Who had no place to go, so i invited him to my folks place. They were out of town, and i was house sitting for them.

He left the week afterwards saying that "In Iowa, you wait 15 mins. and you know exactly where the tornado is going."

I never really understood what he meant, until moving here to OK. Now I do.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting 1103. Astrometeor:


I bet your 3 year old sister could do better than you.

:)


At least I provide forecasts. You don't. Why is that, Nathan? Scared you'll embarrass yourself?

What I thought.

gg no re
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1106. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:
Starting to have some doubts that 95L becomes anything stronger than a mid-range tropical storm, if even that. There has to be a reason the models are showing an elongated system that gradually gets wrung out by the front.

If it organizes quickly enough that could change, but this is a very tricky situation.

It appears the front will move a lot faster than 95L. Assuming the front does as forecast. it will be bringing with it about 2.3" of PW on Sunday. The air in front of the front, over the Gulf, will be quite dry by comparison. If the front can being enough PW and instability to the Gulf as the same time 95L is starting to get any easterly movement in the Gulf, that sub-tropical front could be a prodigious rainmaker for the SE. If 95L dawdles around like the previous BOC storms, the front will wash out before 95L gains enough latitude to inject any instability and moist air to the west end of the front, and 95L will keel over and head into Mexico....again.
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Quoting 1101. allancalderini:
Hahaha yes.:D I don`t want that curse broken.

I have a family member named Jerry, so it would be nice if it was a weak storm so I would call him a weakling :p
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1104. Skyepony (Mod)
Biological Hazard in FL on Wednesday, 18 September, 2013 at 03:13 (03:13 AM) UTC.
Description
St. Lucie County joined Martin County Tuesday in asking Gov. Rick Scott to declare a state of emergency with regards to the Indian River Lagoon. But the governor did not commit to that, saying the federal government needs to step up. Mike Connor holds a plastic water bottle with a green liquid inside. "We've all become armchair biologists lately. This is a toxic algae," said Connor. When Connor looks at the plastic bottle, he sees a lost summer. Revenues from his small charter boat, are down 90 percent. "When the toxic river signs went up, all bets were off. I can't in good conscience take people out on the river," said Connor. His last charter was the first week in June. "Everything's been documented, the effects, the causes. What we don't know as business owners, what is being done on our end," he added. Tuesday, the St. Lucie County Commission followed its peers in Martin County and approved a resolution to ask the governor to declare a state of emergency for the Indian River lagoon. "It's important that we move and have the ability to make a difference when it comes to the Indian River Lagoon," said St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Dzadovsky. Scott was in Stuart on Tuesday and said that last week he asked water control and environmental agencies to speed up any necessary permitting processes. When we asked the governor if there will there be help for business owners like Conner, the governor turned the attention to the federal government. "What's so frustrating is that the federal government has sat on their hands. They're $1.6 billion behind in funding these projects which could have prevented this from ever happening," said Scott. Connor has consulted with an attorney and plans to file some type of legal papers this week to see if there's anyway he can get some sort of reimbursement for his losses this summer.
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Quoting 1084. KoritheMan:


My 3 year old sister would do better...


I bet your 3 year old sister could do better than you.

:)
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Quoting 1096. daddyjames:


Yeah - that is what I was trying to say.

It was very quiet in our neck of the woods for a long time. Allowed SoFL to become what it is now - which maybe wasn't such a good thing.

When i was a kid, my folks used to "humor" me by putting up with my talk of "what could happen" and that we should get shutters (I must have been pretty annoying).

After Andrew, that changed pretty quick. We were walking around thinking that "that wasn't so bad" - in Broward. Until the power came back, and we saw what happened down in South Dade. Dad, who worked for the Federal Gov at that time, was eventually mobilized to help down there. After seeing things - he decided shutters would be a very good thing.
Yeah. Similar reaction here in Nassau. Ppple were like "Andrew was a breeze"... until they saw the impacts in Eleuthera. And as bad as Andrew was - we got low-end cat 2 winds at my location - New Providence was spared because of Andrew's small size and the fact that the eye passed sufficiently to our north.

We still haven't gotten one as bad as the 1929 storm for Nassau...
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Quoting 1079. KoritheMan:


To continue the chain of weaklings in the Jerry family?
Hahaha yes.:D I don`t want that curse broken.
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Sinking and dry air in the midlevels is greater than I thought.....95L is stuggling
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1689
Quoting 1090. Civicane49:
HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED.

MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3
KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY
DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER
WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF
WEAKENING.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE
STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN
FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Guess he has not officially made landfall yet.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.