Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1190. BahaHurican:
C'mon... it's obviously a pineapple.... [obviously to any self-respecting Bahamian... lol]



LOL - he changed it from the turtle that he had. Had not seen the new one.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
1198. jpsb
Quoting 1181. Bluestorm5:


I am really angry and disappointed with the older generation. Their thinking of short term gain over long term got us younger generation in a tough spot to fix. Not just debt crisis, but everything.


If you are talking about the older older generation the ones that gave us income taxes, the federal reserve, direct election of Senators and lots of other bad progressive ideas then I totally agree with you.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
1197. will40
Quoting 1194. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well one thing has been consistent with the GFS and that is it is showing a lot of rain for FL. and the rains continuing in Mexico.



yes the GFS is showing the split of 95L
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Quoting 1189. daddyjames:


I agree - its freaking ridiculous. I don;t see how this is not going to undermine our society on a whole. There is no way that you can go to college, work, and pay for everything.


Kinda hard competing financially with 3rd world economies?....And keep our accustomed standard of living?.....No?
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Quoting 1191. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Really?


Really. 95L may do something, but looks as if it'll remain in the BOC for a bit.

Manuel will pump moisture up into Texas/OK - that is a good thing.

Humberto is dying.

Everything going into Florida for the next week is non-tropical.

The next week looks slow . . . so, more time to discuss GW ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Well one thing has been consistent with the GFS and that is it is showing a lot of rain for FL. and the rains continuing in Mexico.

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Quoting 1181. Bluestorm5:


I am really angry and disappointed with the older generation. Their thinking of short term gain over long term got us younger generation in a tough spot to fix. Not just debt crisis, but everything.
Agreed. I'd like to make a really egregious political comment here.

But instead I think I'll go to bed. Ban myself instead of being banned...

G'nite 2 all...
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1192. Dakster
Quoting 1186. daddyjames:


Tuition here (in state): $147.50/hr. Fees: $100.55/hr

On top of that there is college based fees ($7.50-$22.00/hr), the "special" fees - parking, etc., the application fee, and the "new student/orientation fee - which they require all students to "take". Its freaking ridiculous.

Although they brag that tuition is one of the lowest, the fees kill you.


Yep. ridiculous...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting 1187. daddyjames:


No.


Really?
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Quoting 1140. daddyjames:


Got tired of people asking what it was. Of course, this one has me wondering also.
C'mon... it's obviously a pineapple.... [obviously to any self-respecting Bahamian... lol]

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Quoting 1181. Bluestorm5:


I am really angry and disappointed with the older generation. Their thinking of short term gain over long term got us younger generation in a tough spot to fix. Not just debt crisis, but everything.


I agree - its freaking ridiculous. I don;t see how this is not going to undermine our society on a whole. There is no way that you can go to college, work, and pay for everything.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 1185. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Evening Night Class! And Good Evening to some students that I have not seen for some time.

Things will be getting interesting..........No?
Ask Superstorm, he knows everything
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Quoting 1185. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Evening Night Class! And Good Evening to some students that I have not seen for some time.

Things will be getting interesting..........No?


No.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 1171. Dakster:
Daddyjames - College tuition is the next s* storm waiting to happen. I have pre-paid college tuition for my kids for that reason. (debt)

Light Rain, 79F.


Tuition here (in state): $147.50/hr. Fees: $100.55/hr

On top of that there is college based fees ($7.50-$22.00/hr), the "special" fees - parking, etc., the application fee, and the "new student/orientation fee - which they require all students to "take". Its freaking ridiculous.

Although they brag that tuition is one of the lowest, the fees kill you.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Good Evening Night Class! And Good Evening to some students that I have not seen for some time.

Things will be getting interesting..........No?
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1184. EricSFL
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Quoting 1180. SuperStorm093:
lol its mid september, people said that in the beginning of august. and we only have 1 hurricane to show for it. youll say that again this time october,

Lol when we will 3-4 hurricanes then. Say that then.
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Quoting 1180. SuperStorm093:
lol its mid september, people said that in the beginning of august. and we only have 1 hurricane to show for it. youll say that again this time october,
Thank goodness you're here Superstorm!
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Quoting 1168. daddyjames:
For all you younger guys, check out this link. Please don't fall into this trap.

Putting a face on the student debt crisis

Out With Student Debt

I worked may way through college. Don't see how you younger guys could do that these days.


I am really angry and disappointed with the older generation. Their thinking of short term gain over long term got us younger generation in a tough spot to fix. Not just debt crisis, but everything.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1179. RGVtropicalWx13:
Wow!! A lot of folks still making fools of them selves with 95L and especially the season. Geez no patience at all. Especially opal lol. You Forgot that there's October and November to a hurricane season. Btw it's spelled hurricane not hurr it can't!! Wow!!! Show some respect and patience.
lol its mid september, people said that in the beginning of august. and we only have 1 hurricane to show for it. youll say that again this time october,
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Wow!! A lot of folks still making fools of them selves with 95L and especially the season. Geez no patience at all. Especially opal lol. You Forgot that there's October and November to a hurricane season. Btw it's spelled hurricane not hurr it can't!! Wow!!! Show some respect and patience.
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1178. EricSFL


Circulation seems to be off to the northwest of the convection.
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Quoting 1171. Dakster:
Daddyjames - College tuition is the next s* storm waiting to happen. I have pre-paid college tuition for my kids for that reason. (debt)

Light Rain, 79F.


Its not just tuition, its fees. Make sure the pre-paid covers that too. The associated fees, not included in tuition calculations are astronomical.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
1176. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Don't forget that's 10-min sustained at 105 mph...

That's more like 120 - 125 mph to us. IIRC


that is actually JTWC 90 knots (105 mph) reading.
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Quoting 1166. Dakster:
Models seem to be aimed at Florida for 95L or at least the CMC and UKMET are.

Could this one need to be watched by us Floridians?
October will be the month we need to watch to the south of us as that is typically the month where FL. gets hit on the West Coast as troughs get more deeper and draw whatever forms to the northeast.
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Quoting 1109. TropicalAnalystwx13:
105 mph.

I call BS.

Don't forget that's 10-min sustained at 105 mph...

That's more like 120 - 125 mph to us. IIRC
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Little blob wants to go north
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1171. Dakster
Daddyjames - College tuition is the next s* storm waiting to happen. I have pre-paid college tuition for my kids for that reason. (debt)

Light Rain, 79F.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting 1166. Dakster:
Models seem to be aimed at Florida for 95L or at least the CMC and UKMET are.

Could this one need to be watched by us Floridians?


Not for a while, if at all.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 1165. opal92nwf:
nope, nope and nope! if this stays this weak it's just going to go into Mexico. Nothing new there, BORING!!!

2014 HAS to be more interesting, otherwise.......well we'll see


Lol, looks like me getting grumpy with the 2013 Bay of Campeche Hurricane Season!! :-)
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For all you younger guys, check out this link. Please don't fall into this trap.

Putting a face on the student debt crisis

Out With Student Debt

I worked may way through college. Don't see how you younger guys could do that these days.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Lol, based on statistics, we are supposed to get another storm pretty soon XD

Normally, tropical systems LIKE the Northern Leewards!!

But not in 2013 (so far).
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1166. Dakster
Models seem to be aimed at Florida for 95L or at least the CMC and UKMET are.

Could this one need to be watched by us Floridians?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
nope, nope and nope! if this stays this weak it's just going to go into Mexico. Nothing new there, BORING!!!

2014 HAS to be more interesting, otherwise.......well we'll see
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Quoting 1163. unknowncomic:
Looks like the latest GFS sends 95L poofing into Mexico.
This year it's not the Atlantic Hurricane season. It's the Atlantic Hurry Can't season.


And another one bites the dust.... (probably)
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Looks like the latest GFS sends 95L poofing into Mexico.
This year it's not the Atlantic Hurricane season. It's the Atlantic Hurry Can't season.

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1162. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON USAGI (T1319)
12:00 PM JST September 19 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Usagi (955 hPa) located at 17.1N 128.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.0N 125.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.5N 122.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 21.7N 119.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Northern South China Sea

no change from JMA except the direction of the storm to the west.

China Meteorological Administration has upgraded the storm's intensity

** WTPQ20 BABJ 190300 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY USAGI 1319 (1319) INITIAL TIME 190300 UTC
00HR 17.1N 128.2E 955HPA 42M/S
30KTS 380KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 18.8N 124.8E 935HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 20.5N 121.3E 935HPA 52M/S
P+72HR 21.6N 117.4E 950HPA 45M/S
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Quoting 1157. vis0:

vis0 at wunderground
Gregorio OM  in Real life
,peace


Hey Gregorio, how's it going?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting CaribBoy:
Remembering those good old days lol

...JOSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 100 MPH
WINDS...

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GEORGES POUNDING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...

...LENNY WREAKING HAVOC ON ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...

...EYE OF LENNY OVER ST. BARTHS IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...

...DEBBY NEARING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THREATENS TO STRENGTHEN...

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 120 MPH WINDS...

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SQUALLS AND
HEAVY RAINS...

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


... Still hoping for some action in october and november of this year... LOL WHO KNOWS................ XD

oh.... go to bed
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
and dream of a cat 5
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Quoting 1154. wxgeek723:


Oh really? Just because I don't reciprocate your juvenile humor that I already see in school every day? :p


I should pull out a little old middle-school style speaking here.

ooooo, Cody got Burned!.


Maybe that was a bad idea...
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1157. vis0
Quoting 114. redwagon:


There are quite a few of us coders in here, Centex, sar2401... do you have a blog?

I'm not one of those coders ...not as to physics.
Since i can't use WxU mail here is something i would prefer send to "thinker" here at WxU. Its better that someone steal it and develop it than lay dormant as a text file.

Don't think conventional sub.

How
about round on top (like the mini subs) to receive the least drag when
being used as a water drone. It'll be going against constant strong
winds.

A weight reversed pointy bottom/~undercarriage so the
weight of an upside down pyramid shape keeps the ball on top, no roll
over.

Hidden curved rims can be deployed (raised from within ) to deflect wind and used the wind to micro-steer the "PROTI"

Already
named it? You'll think of something better but one needs a name to
start so one can focus ones questions instead of having to think of a
name as you go along in your discussions. In a few minutes i'm sure a
better name will pop up amongst the experts that will take this idea.

Proti from Proteus to Protius To PROTI, acronym for "Probe Receiving Operational Tropical Information" (Under Sea).

i first used this name in a weather board for The Weather Channel (1998/99) were i left 2 drawings.
 
The main drawing was for a device that can go into tornadoes &
survive by using curves in its design forcing the probe to go downwards
when the Tornado becomes stronger and in F4 & F5s the probe is
forced to (excuse the language) screw itself into the ground thus not
being flung around and destroying its valuable information it collected
that could not be sent due to the interfering with signals from being in winds of
over 180 mph.

The
2nd drawing was of a probe dropped on the
ocean to get readouts & create visible imagery at night instead of
relying on infrared which use damaging microwaves. Proti would use a
type of laser
that could beam up through the clouds and read by Satellites and
create visible images. The latter i called Proti but didn't explain it
any further as i asked if interested as to either idea just reply. No
one replies to my
ideas except to criticize the grammar which is okay as that's how i
separate those whom really care (they take the time to read the book)
from those that are in it for greed or for other negative reasons (they
just read the cover).

BTW
can't use my WxU mail am blocked from
doing 'cause an offer to download a weather app keeps popping up
when i try to use my WxU mail & no one has responded to m y request
ticket so i'm  looking for another blog that fits my needs, so far
found one in China, but prefer a more human friendly country as to my
blogging.

If
one wishes try reading my other ideas/theories before they close (3
just closed this year) UNDERSTAND i post all sorts of theories &
ideas from a device i state can be used to influence nature as to
reverse diseases & influence weather to ideas i leave for women to
attract attention w/o showing too much skin while working in the field
of TV broadcasts (fashion ideas are what has given me the most money as
have shared 14 ideas with designers (Friends of my Sis, she went to The
School Of Art & Design, NYC), 8 of those ideas worked, 3 flopped
other 3 still being tinkered with, they think i'm a fashion genius)
At *********** i'm AKAMRX
At ******** (a great photography site) i'm Senor Equis
At WxU (here) i'm vis0


Hope
it helps, would add more (as make sure its fog proof, a short that
imitates dolphin brain activity/sonar to prevent sharks from eating it)
but i figure by others i've written to here at WxU and other science
related media sites if i write more than a few paragraphs you'll need
Dramamine from going back n forth trying to make sense, though i
thought that's a low price to pay for tomorrows science/ideas i guess
most want new ideas to fit old technology so their brains can handle
it. With the latter way of thinking we'd have used an Edsel to launch
ourselves to the moon....3,2,1! CRANK IT! (add sound of Edsel back firing
here)

Sincerely
vis0 at wunderground
Gregorio OM  in Real life
,peace
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Quoting 1155. Funication:


what happened there?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 1150. daddyjames:


Really? Pretty cool. Like the pineapple! But I liked the pig too.
opps

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Quoting 1143. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is one of the funniest things I've heard from you.


True. We'll just have to wait and see. The environment doesn't look terrible for the next 2-3 days. Should at least get a moderate tropical storm out of this.


Oh really? Just because I don't reciprocate your juvenile humor that I already see in school every day? :p
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Once the eye completely clears out, Usagi should become a super typhoon, probably bordering on category 5 intensity. Definitely another Western Pacific badass.
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19/0232 UTC 17.3N 128.3E T6.0/6.0 USAGI -- West Pacific
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Quoting 1147. KoritheMan:


I truly think your enthusiasm is even greater than mine. Kudos.


XD lol I love weather so much!! But 2013... well...
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Quoting 1142. Funication:

it was the bottom of a turtle


Really? Pretty cool. Like the pineapple! But I liked the pig too.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.