Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 95. CycloneOz:


It still looks and behaves like an ICBM-type rocket.

Never liked those things.

I am very happy this one is being used for peaceful...productive uses.

The imagery bugged me.


Well then you should have seen the Nuclear Ballistic Missile core Peackeeper design Loft a spacecraft to the Moon a few weeks ago.



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98. jpsb
Quoting 75. CycloneOz:


Another necessity...

2. It will have to have a helluva good engine. It will be a special sub...but they make new ones all the time.

This is where cooperation is needed between a treasure hunting business and a big TV production company.

Money buys this sub.
Well I am thinking cost to benefit and I am wondering where the benefit of using a sub vrs a recon plane comes in? I seriously doubt the sub could surface in a hurricane, subs are very prone to rolling. A sub with a really big engine *might* be able to tow a buoy for continuous observation, maybe. But would that be worth the cost? Much more expensive vessel and a much bigger crew then a recon plane. I agree it is a fun idea, but does it provide us with info we currently can not get?
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Global Hawk Flies above a Hurricane, never thru one as its a turbo fan. No Drone can withstand a Hurricane Up and downdrafts as a P-3Orion and C-130 have the only penetrating structures to recon within a storm.


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Oops, I didn't preface my comment with 'no offense'.

(Because obviously that's all you need to do to be within your rights of saying something offensive.)

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Quoting 78. ILwthrfan:
Down to 1004 MB now as of NHC



^^CLICK for LINK^^
This will be an interesting weather event unfolding for us weather nuts. Hopefully no major surprises.
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Thanks for the update,
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Quoting 77. CycloneOz:
It is comforting to know that the USA can successfully launch ICBM-type rockets in ease.

:\


Orbital Sciences Corp. is launching its Cygnus spacecraft atop an Antares rocket on a supply mission to the international space station, ...




Antares is a Private commercial launch Rocket.
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Quoting 82. seminolesfan:


Just...Wow...

Its a high horse you must ride, my friend.

I like how you 'forecast' everything to blow up and head towards FL. Keep throwing those darts and one of them will eventually hit, right?



Calm down, he did say "No Offense" . Wasn't like he was bashing him
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Quoting 82. seminolesfan:


Just...Wow...

Its a high horse you must ride, my friend.

I like how you 'forecast' everything to blow up and head towards FL. Keep throwing those darts and one of them will eventually hit, right?

Lots of pluses for this one. scott reminds me of a donkey with a hole in it.
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Some things are better off left unsaid.
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Quoting 80. CycloneOz:


would you like to post where the live feed is?


It's in the upper lefthand corner of the pic.
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Quoting 20. StormTrackerScott:
No offense but Jeff Masters has been wrong many times in regards to tropical systems as many of us on here.


Just...Wow...

Its a high horse you must ride, my friend.

I like how you 'forecast' everything to blow up and head towards FL. Keep throwing those darts and one of them will eventually hit, right?

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We have a Drone, a Global Hawk One that can fly 28 hour RECON Missions with sondes if needed.

The Data used for Tracking and research are not surface based, they are storm Based.


Landfalling Storms offer the opportunity for thrills, but the ones doing research, have the recon covered.
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 171456
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 17 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-108

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 18/2000Z A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 18/1700Z C. 19/0830Z
D. 20.0N 91.5W D. 20.5N 94.0W
E. 18/1630Z TO 18/2100Z E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1530Z
F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HOURLIES WHILE SYSTEM
REMAINS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS:
A. RESEARCH: GLOBAL HAWK NA872 TO FLY HUMBERTO WEDNESDAY WITH
A TAKEOFF OF 19/1100Z. 66 DROPS PLANNED.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD



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L95 entering on Campeche Mexico.

webcam live
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Down to 1004 MB now as of NHC



^^CLICK for LINK^^
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
426 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SUN-TUES...A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND AND CUTS OFF FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW OVER AL. THIS WILL PULL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND BRING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COLD UPPER LOW SHOULD INDUCE A BAROCLINIC SFC LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY.

MEANWHILE...HURRICANE CENTER GIVE HIGH PROBABILITIES THAT A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ONCE IT PUSHES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. NHC/WPC KEEP LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. AND BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LEFT BEHIND ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MID WEEK AS WELL.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THESE FEATURES DEVELOP...IT APPEARS WE ARE HEADED TOWARD A WET AND CLOUDY PERIOD THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
SUN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE 15-20 KNOTS AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

MOSES/KELLY


Previously, NWS Melbourne has been referring to a Broader Double Barreled (Baroclinic North/Tropical South) Area of Low Pressure over the Gulf which lifts out in the general vicinity of Florida and the Bahamas into mid next Week.
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74. jpsb
Quoting 21. CycloneOz:
I will continue to bang the drum for the need of at least one professional, nautical chasing team for hurricanes at sea.

Even a small submarine with one surface support vessel (equipped with drones) could achieve AMAZING science.

Not to mention the entertainment value.

Who of us would not tune into a 24 broadcast of a hurricane at sea?

Imagine the video. Imagine the real-time storm data updates.
I don't think a small submarine could keep up with a hurricane, subs in general are rather slow underwater, except for big nuke subs, i hear they are fairly fast.
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Hey..I also found Masters to be wrong at times..Also, I have not found your wx comments to always be in agreement but we can all say what we want.it's a blog..

Quoting 59. StormWx:


Cool it with the accusations bud, and calling people out who dont have Met degrees, and saying who is wrong and that you're right. Pretty childish man! Its great you put all your eggs into one basket with respects to the models, but i'll trust the owner of this blog. Cheers! :o)
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95L get ready being classified as a depression imo
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Quoting 53. ncstorm:
Cowboys Stadium uses more electricity than Liberia


Nothing wrong with that right? :)
Everything is bigger in Texas.
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Looks as if Texas' prayers for rain will be answered - a good statewide soaking in the works for this weekend:



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Quoting 21. CycloneOz:
I will continue to bang the drum for the need of at least one professional, nautical chasing team for hurricanes at sea.

Even a small submarine with one surface support vessel (equipped with drones) could achieve AMAZING science.

Not to mention the entertainment value.

Who of us would not tune into a 24 broadcast of a hurricane at sea?

Imagine the video. Imagine the real-time storm data updates.


one of the beauties of a sub us we can go deep and get OUT of the weather. What possible use would a sub be in such rough seas I cannot fathom... I recall rolling 25 degrees at 180 feet in the north Atlantic one time.. we went back deep, full bell for two days and came back up to periscope depth in smoother waters.. I get the drones, but not a sub..
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Liftoff successful. :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Quoting 62. Torito:
90 seconds till take off.

Link
TAKE OFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF!!!!
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Quoting 63. CycloneOz:


It is a relief valve, I think.


Ah ok that makes sense.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
90 seconds till take off.

Link
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L95 on Campeche, Mexico, entering to the Gulf of Mexico.

See you later (Jerry).


Here on Merida, Yucatan it´s raining and some winds.



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Quoting 54. CycloneOz:
It's a beefy looking rocket.


trying to figure out what the white smoke near it is...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
So is the forecast for 95L to move into BOC intensify to TD/TS than meander around for days and eventually dissipate in BOC? Somehow I can't believe that this time of year.
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Less than 5 minutes till take off.


Link
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WHICH
COULD CREATE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE SITUATION BEARS MONITORING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

...TROPICAL IMPACT...
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$
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Wet Days Ahead ...
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7 Minutes to go.

Link
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Quoting 40. ncstorm:
For the five of us in NC that blog here :)

Meteorologist Tim Buckley
HEADS UP... Looks like the Carolinas could be in store for our first big rain in a while Sunday & Monday.

Not a sure thing just yet, but a cold front will be approaching and tropical moisture may get caught up ahead of it.

Graphic below is one computer model's idea on what the system will look like Sunday PM.

Well, it's going to be interesting... that cold front is coming through Carolinas this weekend so it'll be interesting to see what happens. I'm playing in a Ultimate Frisbee college club tournament in Clemson, SC. Can't wait to play.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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