Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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"Guess what day it is?", ask's the Tall Office Camel.


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Very cool to see Usagi's eye wobble around-- it must be extremely intense. I recall Wilma having that occur in satellite loops. Does anyone have that GIF?
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Quoting 143. FOREX:


Goes against Dr. Masters' forecast.


Well Seminoesfan..you got work to do..better hit Brad's twitter feed..
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Quoting 137. ncstorm:


like get off the phone while in class?

Except I'm not in class right now.
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Quoting 137. ncstorm:


like get off the phone while in class?




LOL
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Quoting 130. GetReal:


looks like a few more models shifting now...

this is going to be an interesting set up
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143. FOREX
Quoting 136. Walshy:
Brad Panovich WCNC
The HWRF model has been very unreliable this season so far but it initialized pretty well today on #Invest95L over the Yucatan. It then develops it into a hurricane moving into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. There is some supports from the other models as well. All interests in the Gulf should pay attention to the weather over the next few days and into the weekend. #Jerry


Goes against Dr. Masters' forecast.
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Quoting 132. StormTrackerScott:
I'm done here! Sorry to many trouble makers on here and no wonder why so many leave because they get attacked so much that they have no choice.


Scott, dont leave..just ignore and keep posting..
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Quoting 135. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Everybody shut up and go do something productive. It's hump day.



I agree...I am outta here for a good long while.

95L...what next?
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Manuel has to give and to give. Now there is another disturbance together with Manuel Invest 91. That say in the matter?


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It's getting ridiculous here. Please stay on topic, related information. Use the plus, minus. Don't quote.

MODS, please starting banning some folks. Good grief. It's a dang zoo.
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Quoting 135. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Everybody shut up and go do something productive. It's hump day.



like get off the phone while in class?
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Brad Panovich WCNC
The HWRF model has been very unreliable this season so far but it initialized pretty well today on #Invest95L over the Yucatan. It then develops it into a hurricane moving into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. There is some supports from the other models as well. All interests in the Gulf should pay attention to the weather over the next few days and into the weekend. #Jerry

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Everybody shut up and go do something productive. It's hump day.

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Quoting 112. jpsb:
So now we have two systems capable of resupplying the ISS, cool. (SpaceX and Orbital)


2 American ones...we also have the Russian Progress, the Japanese HTV, and the French ATV. I used to work with the ISS program :)
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Quoting 121. Lonewulf:


No Met is perfect, far from it. However in the 13 years I've been following WU Doc's proven accurate enough for me to accept his opinion in the short term.


The doc has been wrong many times in the past. And he has been surprised, too.

However...the doc also has a proven record of being very accurate.

One instance I recall is Ike's last minute jog to the east which doomed the Bolivar peninsula. The doc had that one.

I was center cut...underneath the eye just meters from the sea wall on Galveston Island.

Had Ike not jogged, my location would have experienced that massive storm surge.

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I'm done here! Sorry to many trouble makers on here and no wonder why so many leave because they get attacked so much that they have no choice.
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1995 Hurricane Roxanne hit the Yucatan as a Cat 3, crossed into the Bay of Campeche maintaining hurricane status, and was trapped there for about a week until she finally dissipated.

1995 Hurricane Roxanne Landfall:


1995 Hurricane Roxanne track:
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
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Quoting 120. seminolesfan:


I certainly hope you poured yourself a glass first!

(If you are curious about the blog's opinion on this matter, because frankly, I'm done with it; Go check out the most "plus tagged" posts on the last page.)


So let me guess you attack someone to pad your plus count. Grow up man and post something constructive.
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Quoting 107. CycloneOz:


Ah...you speak of disaster!

God-willing, huh? Nothing like a bit of drama to go along with your science experiments.


Oz... Luv ya man... But you bring this image to mind...




Excuse me... But I believe you have my stapler.
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Quoting 118. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


Si ya veo, y como obtendo el screenhot?


Que tipo de computadora tienes? Mac o Windows?
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Quoting 108. StormTrackerScott:


If there is a blog then we can all make comments right? Right or wrong correct? The problem here is you cause problems on this blog all the time and you ran off several key members on you just keep on attacking people. You have a problem with me then e-mail and stop being a coward.


The only KEY MEMBER in this blog is Doc Masters.. Everyone else is not blogging at all, they are only making comments about the blog. You are the WKC of Florida, give it a rest.
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Quoting 111. ncstorm:
some of yall need to go back to bed and start over..cranky blog today



It's Kiki! <3
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Navy site has the pressure at 1004mb.
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A well-symmetrical storm with a clear eye and deep convection surrounding that. This must be the type of cyclone the older people told us stories about. It's a shame they went extinct in the Atlantic.

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Quoting 116. Patrap:


It's sitting right now...shore 'nuf.
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Quoting 108. StormTrackerScott:


If there is a blog then we can all make comments right? Right or wrong correct? The problem here is you cause problems on this blog all the time and you ran off several key members on you just keep on attacking people. You have a problem with me then e-mail and stop being a coward.


It's an open blog, everyone is entitled to their respectful opinion. Whether I agree or disagree with someone is my problem to deal with as long as the conversation is civil. Nothing you posted was offensive in nature, you stated an opinion that people may or may not agree with, but you didn't do it in what I consider an offensive manner. Same issue as the GW/AGW arguments - post your side, but respect the other person's right to disagree.

No Met is perfect, far from it. However in the 13 years I've been following WU Doc's proven accurate enough for me to accept his opinion in the short term. Difference I've noted with Dr. M is unlike many other Mets, he admits when he's wrong and isn't afraid to change his prediction as the situation changes.
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Quoting 101. StormTrackerScott:


Just because Doc makes a forecast doesn't mean it will be right just as is the case with anyone's forecast. So calm down and drink a Fresca (orange flavor).


I certainly hope you poured yourself a glass first!

(If you are curious about the blog's opinion on this matter, because frankly, I'm done with it; Go check out the most "plus tagged" posts on the last page.)
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119. FOREX
Quoting 116. Patrap:


I wonder of recon will be cancelled.
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Quoting 109. daddyjames:


Si se usa el producto CMISS "para ver la tormenta, hay que tomar una scrennshot. No se como decirlo en español.



Si ya veo, y como obtendo el screenhot?
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Quoting 85. Walshy:
Some things are better off left unsaid.


but I have such a difficult time shutting up.. arrrggg..
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Quoting 111. ncstorm:
some of yall need to go back to bed and start over..cranky blog today



Those are the usual cranks, so . . . {shrugs shoulders}
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Quoting 36. CycloneOz:
Are there any fellow system designers here?

It might be fun to discuss a system design for a nautical storm chase...via email. Write me!


There are quite a few of us coders in here, Centex, sar2401... do you have a blog?
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Quoting 107. CycloneOz:


Ah...you speak of disaster!

God-willing, huh? Nothing like a bit of drama to go along with your science experiments.


Well, you'd have to plan for it at least - especially if it is manned. Maybe an unmanned sub? Or not enough drama for the tv series?
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112. jpsb
Quoting 90. Patrap:


Orbital Sciences Corp. is launching its Cygnus spacecraft atop an Antares rocket on a supply mission to the international space station, ...




Antares is a Private commercial launch Rocket.
So now we have two systems capable of resupplying the ISS, cool. (SpaceX and Orbital)
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some of yall need to go back to bed and start over..cranky blog today

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Happy 66th Birthday to the U.S. Air Force

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Quoting 104. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
L95


If using CMISS' product to view the storm, you have to take a screenshot.

No se como decirlo en espanol.
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Quoting 59. StormWx:


Cool it with the accusations bud, and calling people out who dont have Met degrees, and saying who is wrong and that you're right. Pretty childish man! Its great you put all your eggs into one basket with respects to the models, but i'll trust the owner of this blog. Cheers! :o)


If there is a blog then we can all make comments right? Right or wrong correct? The problem here is you cause problems on this blog all the time and you ran off several key members on you just keep on attacking people. You have a problem with me then e-mail and stop being a _.
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Quoting 105. daddyjames:


Eaten up by the contingency planning/recovery if something should go wrong?


Ah...you speak of disaster!

God-willing, huh? Nothing like a bit of drama to go along with your science experiments.
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Quoting 94. seminolesfan:
Oops, I didn't preface my comment with 'no offense'.

(Because obviously that's all you need to do to be within your rights of saying something offensive.)



I would be willing to bet that Dr Master's has much tougher skin than to let a comment like that bother him and instead might be a little amused by all this.
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Quoting 100. CycloneOz:


The costs are absorbed via commercial endorsement, grants?, and pay-per-view revenues.


Eaten up by the contingency planning/recovery if something should go wrong?
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L95
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Usagi is displaying an amazing display of explosive intensification! Wow!

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Quoting 99. Patrap:


Well then you should have seen the Nuclear Ballistic Missile core Peackeeper design Loft a spacecraft to the Moon a few weeks ago.





Oh yeah!

That's an end-of-the-world B-roll shot!
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Quoting 82. seminolesfan:


Just...Wow...

Its a high horse you must ride, my friend.

I like how you 'forecast' everything to blow up and head towards FL. Keep throwing those darts and one of them will eventually hit, right?



Just because Doc makes a forecast doesn't mean it will be right just as is the case with anyone's forecast. So calm down and drink a Fresca (orange flavor).
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Quoting 98. jpsb:
Well I am thinking cost to benefit and I am wondering where the benefit of using a sub vrs a recon plane comes in? I seriously doubt the sub could surface in a hurricane, subs are very prone to rolling. A sub with a really big engine *might* be able to tow a buoy for continuous observation, maybe. But would that be worth the cost? Much more expensive vessel and a much bigger crew then a recon plane. I agree it is a fun idea, but does it provide us with info we currently can not get?


The costs are absorbed via commercial endorsement, grants?, and pay-per-view revenues.
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Quoting 95. CycloneOz:


It still looks and behaves like an ICBM-type rocket.

Never liked those things.

I am very happy this one is being used for peaceful...productive uses.

The imagery bugged me.


Well then you should have seen the Nuclear Ballistic Missile core Peackeeper design Loft a spacecraft to the Moon a few weeks ago.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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